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Posted
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

He had overwhelming support in the industry. It staggers the fucking imagination. 

 

curious the saudis long game here 

has to be regain market share ?

Posted
4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

curious the saudis long game here 

has to be regain market share ?

Doubtful. I’m not sure they can. I think they’ll spearhead continuance of cuts. Trump won’t be able to tamp down prices forever. US shale oil will start to irreversibly decline imminently. And demand isn’t going anywhere. 

Posted
14 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Doubtful. I’m not sure they can. I think they’ll spearhead continuance of cuts. Trump won’t be able to tamp down prices forever. US shale oil will start to irreversibly decline imminently. And demand isn’t going anywhere. 

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

Posted
15 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

I've been watching this documentary called "Landman" and it shows that if you have a old vertical stripper well pumping a few barrels a day all you need to do is remove all the casing, preferably in just a few hours mostly at night, and you will be producing a couple hundred barrels a day no problem.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

There is no way re-frac’ing can outstrip the massive production declines. I think your view is one a lot of people have, and respectfully, it’s just inaccurate. 

17 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

I know a lot of shit about a lot of fuck. 

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Posted

So does total production fall off a cliff in the Permian or peak and start a long slow decline over the next 20 years?  Has it peaked already?  I mean, that's the age old question.

Posted (edited)

It's actually unbelievable unfathomable where we and the world would be now if not for the US shale boom beginning in the Barnett in the 90's.

Edited by CycleTex87
Posted
11 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

So does total production fall off a cliff in the Permian or peak and start a long slow decline over the next 20 years?  Has it peaked already?  I mean, that's the age old question.

I don’t think it falls off a cliff but it’ll decline gradually over time. But once it peaks, it’ll be really hard to have any monthly increase without it being anomalous. It’ll drive discussion and markets, and you’ll hear about Peak Oil all over again.

It reduced 0.9% from October 2024 to November 2024 (in terms of daily production). Notably, Texas (down 1.2%) and New Mexico (down 1.8%) drove the overall decrease, down a combined 108,000 bopd. Some of that could’ve been price related, but I don’t think so, and it wasn’t weather related. I don’t think we can say definitively it’s peaked. Need more data. 

9 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

It's actually unbelievable unfathomable where we and the world would be now if not for the US shale boom beginning in the Barnett in the 90's.

Late 90s. Mitchell didn’t really crack the code until early 2000s. I’ll tell you where we’d be: up shit creek with expensive-as-fuck energy costs. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Updawg said:

Just saw chevron is going to cut 15-20% of staff. Are things that bad or expected to be? Is this just them?

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

Posted
10 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

I agree. Plus, Chevron has officially moved its HQ from San Ramon to Houston. I imagine the 2000+ California-based employees will largely get wiped out.

They're stretching this out through the end of 2026 and will start offering buyout packages this Spring, so it's not a panic move b/c they're in big trouble or something, IMO.

Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

Shell is in the middle of something similar in E&P and I’ve heard that the same about BP…  (I’m guessing CVX buying Hess is part of their calculation on cutting bodies…)

Edited by Grimas
Posted
14 hours ago, Updawg said:

Just saw chevron is going to cut 15-20% of staff. Are things that bad or expected to be? Is this just them?

after record profits and $75,000,000,000 in stock buybacks, they just don't have any money left for staff. It would be bad business to not fire people!

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Posted
4 hours ago, Grimas said:

Shell is in the middle of something similar in E&P and I’ve heard that the same about BP…  (I’m guessing CVX buying Hess is part of their calculation on cutting bodies…)

BP and Shell need to shed people. And also to totally revamp their business away from renewables and ESG and placating to political idiots like this fucking guy:

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

after record profits and $75,000,000,000 in stock buybacks, they just don't have any money left for staff. It would be bad business to not fire people!

 

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Posted

Crazy idea: the people with economic interest in an entity gets to allocate *their* capital in a way that aligns with their interest. 

Its amazing that the type of people crying about fascism are the ones who want to dictate how other people spend their money. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Captainant said:

after record profits and $75,000,000,000 in stock buybacks, they just don't have any money left for staff. It would be bad business to not fire people!

Akshully, the buy backs were in part to buoy the technicals for the stock price/shareholders so that they could better compete with benchmarking peers (like the aforementioned IOCs), but there was STILL too much fat and redundancy in the organization. If you've ever worked in and around Chevron, you would understand.

Either way, this was McKinsey coming in and providing a blueprint to better compete with their peers for capital.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

BP and Shell need to shed people. And also to totally revamp their business away from renewables and ESG and placating to political idiots like this fucking guy:

 

Your vendetta against energy sources is always puzzling. If it's from a burned hydrocarbon or a solar panel, a watt is a watt. But then again you don't get your passive income from the sun shining or the wind blowing, so I can see why you find it distasteful. 

It funny how mad y'all get and then spin off into ad-hominem attacks when confronted with bad management. Keep up the good work, O&G finance bros. You've got the best years of your lives ahead of you, I'm sure. 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Your vendetta against energy sources is always puzzling. If it's from a burned hydrocarbon or a solar panel, a watt is a watt. But then again you don't get your passive income from the sun shining or the wind blowing, so I can see why you find it distasteful. 

It funny how mad y'all get and then spin off into ad-hominem attacks when confronted with bad management. Keep up the good work, O&G finance bros. You've got the best years of your lives ahead of you, I'm sure. 

No, no, no and of course I do. 

A watt is a watt, only if you willfully ignore EROI. 

No ad hominem whatsoever. You enter this thread periodically like the political clown you are. You have no subtlety whatsoever.  

Chevron doesn’t have bad management, by and large. That’s laughable. They’re the epitome of over-safety measures and have a fuckload of fat to cut. 

You’ve become a waste of time with every post of yours I read. You’re about to hit my short Ignore list. 
 

Edited by Rex Kramer
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Posted
9 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

I need midstream was a crappy business and midstream companies were crappy to work with, but this was an interesting view (h/t Visual Capitalist):

💰 Ranked: U.S. Industries Where Companies Are Most Profitable

This graphic is really good because (1) tobacco fucking rocks to own (2) you never hear people say shit like “man philip morris is ripping me off on cigarettes and ipads are extortionate”.

but people do complain about grocery stores and consumer packaged goods and those guys only get single-digit margin. perception vs reality. 

Posted
On 2/14/2025 at 8:16 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

Questions by a non-O&G guy to you petro brains….this article was posted in one of the Ukraine threads.

What are the negative effects of having to cease production on the Russian wellheads and pipelines? 

If you have to temporarily stop extracting due to market forces (or drones hitting your facility) - what short term and long-term affects will this article’s facts (if true)  have on Russia’s oil industry if they don’t have a way to move their product?    

To be clear, I’m not talking about political ramifications. I’m talking about the technical aspects of the problems Russia may be experiencing because of the inability to ship product- whatever the cause?  IOW, is this actually a problem or just a nothing-burger article trying to get clicks?

 

Posted

There's technical issues and and costs to restart production wells after having shut them in. Might need testing, maintenance, etc. But unless there is severe demand impairment, they won't shut down the wells, they'll merely choke its production rate down. 

The bottleneck now due to damage in refining capacity and sanctioning of some tankers has a small marginal impact. On the upside IEA and Rystad (industry analysts) revised upwards expectation of global demands and OPEC+/Russia supply to meet it, despite what OPEC+ previously stated in December.

If the Ukraine war gets resolved - and looks like its trending that way - then you'd also expect much of the sanctioning pressures to subside.

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Posted
5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

There's technical issues and and costs to restart production wells after having shut them in. Might need testing, maintenance, etc. But unless there is severe demand impairment, they won't shut down the wells, they'll merely choke its production rate down. 

The bottleneck now due to damage in refining capacity and sanctioning of some tankers has a small marginal impact. On the upside IEA and Rystad (industry analysts) revised upwards expectation of global demands and OPEC+/Russia supply to meet it, despite what OPEC+ previously stated in December.

If the Ukraine war gets resolved - and looks like its trending that way - then you'd also expect much of the sanctioning pressures to subside.

Appreciate the info

Posted
18 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Questions by a non-O&G guy to you petro brains….this article was posted in one of the Ukraine threads.

What are the negative effects of having to cease production on the Russian wellheads and pipelines? 

If you have to temporarily stop extracting due to market forces (or drones hitting your facility) - what short term and long-term affects will this article’s facts (if true)  have on Russia’s oil industry if they don’t have a way to move their product?    

To be clear, I’m not talking about political ramifications. I’m talking about the technical aspects of the problems Russia may be experiencing because of the inability to ship product- whatever the cause?  IOW, is this actually a problem or just a nothing-burger article trying to get clicks?

 

Yeah, if (big if) they were to properly mothball everything then the short term effects on the wells and pipelines would be minimal.  IMO, a bigger issue if they have drastically cut back production for a year+ then I would worry about skilled labor leaving the industry and never coming back. That takes real time and money to replace.

Posted
1 hour ago, Dr Fear said:

Yeah, if (big if) they were to properly mothball everything then the short term effects on the wells and pipelines would be minimal.  IMO, a bigger issue if they have drastically cut back production for a year+ then I would worry about skilled labor leaving the industry and never coming back. That takes real time and money to replace.

It’s amusing how many not involved in the industry think fingers can be snapped and production will resume. That might be a little hyperbole, but I don’t think most people ever consider this and I’m including people at organizations like the IEA, EIA and API. 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It’s amusing how many not involved in the industry think fingers can be snapped and production will resume. That might be a little hyperbole, but I don’t think most people ever consider this and I’m including people at organizations like the IEA, EIA and API. 

That is not what I am saying, I was responding to the effect on their equipment and the reserves in the wells, and I already said that labor force could be a problem down the road. No snapping fingers here.

Posted
30 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

That is not what I am saying, I was responding to the effect on their equipment and the reserves in the wells, and I already said that labor force could be a problem down the road. No snapping fingers here.

I’m not saying you or anyone was saying that. Not sure how you inferred that. Just general people commenting on it, and those sentiments flex up to institutions that the markets ostensibly pay attention to. 

24 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If papa Vlad tells young Sergei to get his back in the oil fields, young Sergei is going to get his ass back in the oil fields.

Yeah I think Russians have a little less choice in their life. But I don’t know shit about they really. 

Posted

This ability to just open the valves has always been attributed to the Saudis.  I know back in petroleum engineering days on the 40 acres, we looked at typical west Texas reservoir structure and Middle East reservoir structure, and they (ME) were an order of magnitude larger and more apt to flow.  I haven't studied it in detail or even big picture, but at some point in time even the Saudis' reservoirs have to deplete. 

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