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Posted
3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Industry consensus is for the largest draw ever tomorrow when reported at 9:30 AM CT tomorrow. 275 Bcf. That should provide some support. 

3.90 NG1 is a big line in the sand area for me, April settled a bit above that and maybe gets tested pre-storage release tomorrow. As you said, record storage release expected but its rear view mirror stuff. What’s important is the degree to which salt storage is able to replenish itself next few weeks, with close to all time production highs and no appreciable HDDs save for some cold over the weekend. If you are concerned with shoulder weakness, perhaps you should be, April October spread has come in quite readily and is due for a breather.

Also, bloodbath across the pond as TTF summer/winter spread has collapsed from insane backwardation to almost flat. Be careful out there.

Posted

$3.50-$6.95 thru Mar’26. The $8.63 ceiling never really seemed doable. If we are trading at $8 or $9 in Jan/Feb, I’ll be ecstatic. I don’t think that’ll happen so quickly but I also never saw August ‘22 coming. 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

$3.50-$6.95 thru Mar’26. The $8.63 ceiling never really seemed doable. If we are trading at $8 or $9 in Jan/Feb, I’ll be ecstatic. I don’t think that’ll happen so quickly but I also never saw August ‘22 coming. 

I'm not a finance guy by any means so I'd appreciate a brief tutorial if you've got a second. The $3.50-$6.95 range you're quoting is a collar, correct? Basically you're protected from nat gas price dropping below $3.50, but lose out on any upside if the price breaches $6.95? Would appreciate an example in that scenario of what exactly happens to you if the price hits $2.50 vs. if price hits $8.50.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted
4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I'm not a finance guy by any means so I'd appreciate a brief tutorial if you've got a second. The $3.50-$6.95 range you're quoting is a collar, correct? Basically you're protected from nat gas price dropping below $3.50, but lose out on any upside if the price breaches $6.95? Would appreciate an example in that scenario of what exactly happens to you if the price hits $2.50 vs. if price hits $8.50.

Correct on the general premise of a collar. Gas contracts are 10,000 in volume. So if I had 1 contract hedged, and the price settles at $2.50 during my tenor, I’m paid $10,000.  If it settles at $8.50, I owe $15,500. 

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Posted (edited)

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

Quote
 

Trump Cancels Chevron’s Venezuela License, Boosting Supply Concerns

Oil prices received a boost following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. The sudden policy reversal undoes a license granted by former President Joe Biden over two years ago. Chevron, which exports about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude—accounting for over 25% of the country’s total oil output—will now be barred from continuing these exports.

This policy change has reignited supply concerns in an already sensitive market, contributing to the unwinding of short positions established during the recent sell-off. The cancellation of the Venezuela license comes as traders assess the potential for increased demand following reports of potential purchases for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

Edited by Dutchrudder
Posted
1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

 

this is the country you invade / take over.'it wouldn't take much 

Posted
1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

 

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

Posted
5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

I think we have a house painter around here somewhere 

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Posted

All the light oil the US is producing is worth a lot less if we can't blend it with heavy crude from Canada and Venezuela.  Sooo... tariff Canada's heavy crude, cancel license for Venezuelan crude.  Good strategy.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2025 at 10:32 AM, Rex Kramer said:

Correct on the general premise of a collar. Gas contracts are 10,000 in volume. So if I had 1 contract hedged, and the price settles at $2.50 during my tenor, I’m paid $10,000.  If it settles at $8.50, I owe $15,500. 

Edit to add this $ amount is the monthly settlement amount, not total. In theory if it settles $8.50 every month, I’d owe $15.5k - per month. However, if it is settling at $8.50, the reason I’d be ecstatic is because my cash flow would more than double from where it is now. 

Edited by Rex Kramer
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Posted
I have several buddies that either retired from or work for BP.  They are all at a loss as to why BP lost its way.  All their stock holdings are in the toilet. 

I mean it isn’t rocket science. bp had two of the worst o&g disasters in history within a 5 year period, which tanked public confidence in the company and cemented the stock below competitors. They were never going to out-Exxon Exxon at this point, so the CEO took a big swing on renewables to try and make bp be market leaders in that area - which in hindsight was a swing and a miss. The Ukraine war was a double whammy as bp was forced to sell stake in Rosneft (thus losing a revenue stream that could help temper a slower transition) and the ensuing profits the other companies saw in traditional hydrocarbons slowed the energy transition to a crawl.

It’s self-inflicted, but there’s a world where the early 2020’s energy optimism isn’t interrupted by Putin and bp comes out smelling like roses.
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Posted
On 3/3/2025 at 3:30 PM, Rex Kramer said:

Thanks Obama!

I still am at a loss why the industry would support this guy. Also, there’s another Bloomberg article about how BP has ditched their green initiatives. 

The above was a link to a Bloomberg article to Trump putting pressure on OPEC to increase production being a culprit in oil tanking. Not sure why it’s not popping up. 

This fucking guy is out of control. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’d prefer MAGA heat up the refiners/provide incentives for them to convert from heavy to light crude instead of pressuring the Saudis.

But… he wants instant results and here we are. 

 

motiva is 100+ years old. it would be quicker to just build one from scratch 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
Quote

 

Energy executives have mostly heaped praise on President Donald Trump in public appearances, welcoming his removal of environmental restrictions on oil drilling and vows to open up more areas to exploration.

But in private, executives are clearly frustrated with the administration’s policies, and some are pulling back investment. Several executives expressed their feelings in blunt terms in a quarterly survey put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 

"The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets,” one wrote. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.”

The Fed survey responses, which are anonymous, were collected from 130 executives in oil and gas production and services who work in the Fed district, which includes Texas and sections of New Mexico and Louisiana.

“I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” wrote another executive.

For the most part, the executives expressed concern about tariffs. Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel are causing costs to jump for oil producers who use a lot of it.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/texas-oil-survey-frustration-tariffs-1c16e994

Posted (edited)

anyone heard of Strategic Storage Partners, LLC ? 

peor are saying the DoE is giving them control of the strategic oil reserve. 

U.S. Government will be paying $1.4 billion or $280 million every year to have it managed. 

 

 

IMG_3667.jpeg

Edited by tx 3 putt
Posted
anyone heard of Strategic Storage Partners, LLC ? 
peor are saying the DoE is giving them control of the strategic oil reserve. 
U.S. Government will be paying $1.4 billion or $280 million every year to have it managed. 
 
 
IMG_3667.thumb.jpeg.3ba177a88471af6a36f8cbcf075b4be9.jpeg

1) Find out who is behind it. Because it’s a grift.
2) We weren’t paying $280 million per year just to manage the Reserve before. Total grift boondoggle.
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


1) Find out who is behind it. Because it’s a grift.
2) We weren’t paying $280 million per year just to manage the Reserve before. Total grift boondoggle.

Yup, that was my first thought. According to some internet info:
Brian M. Taylor based in Parker CO. The business has an address of Frankton, CO. The company apparently creates storage units, like the kind that you put your leftover furniture and stuff in when your house is too full.  Others connected to it are Sarah Westfall and Donald Marcotte the founder, and that's it. 3 employees total that are publicly available via internet info.  Makes absolutely no sense. Chris Wright is from Denver, CO, so it may be some kickback to friends or family, but it needs to be investigated.  

Dunno how accurate this, but it seems likely:  https://www.facebook.com/SUGAR.RHI/videos/1188919929293391/

 

 

Edited by Dutchrudder
Posted

So how was the SPR managed before? I assume that it was a grift previously as well that has just been transferred to new grifters?

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Hate said:

So how was the SPR managed before? I assume that it was a grift previously as well that has just been transferred to new grifters?

What a strange way to live. Anything before MUST have been a grift, so any new grifts happening now are okeydoke. 

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Posted

 

This is what a quick search revealed. 

  • Management and Operating (M&O) Contractor:
    The DOE awards contracts to manage and operate the SPR facilities, and currently, Strategic Storage Partners LLC will take over the management and operation of the SPR facilities on June 15, 2025, according to a recent news article. 
     
  •  

 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Hate said:

That is not what I said at all but keep fucking that chicken.

No no you're right, I'm sure the 3 man outfit that runs self storage units in Colorado is a perfect steward of the SPR and it's massive set of underground storage tanks and pipelines in Texas and LA. I'm sure they'll maintain that critical strategic infrastructure well, definitely better than those grifters at Fluor Federal Petroleum Operations.

Since anything before the current administration MUST be a grift right?

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Posted

Jesus fucking Christ you are a beating. Not once have I said it was a smart move or a good move. It’s something I had never thought of before until this new company was awarded the contract. Do you think FFPO did this out of the goodness of their hearts? Or maybe they had some political connections when they were awarded the management contract whenever that was? I’ll assume that FFPO was doing a great job managing the SPR as I’ve never seen anything to the contrary. 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


1) Find out who is behind it. Because it’s a grift.
2) We weren’t paying $280 million per year just to manage the Reserve before. Total grift boondoggle.

Lol.  Thanks Captain Obvious. Glad your omnipresent bitching nature has infected this thread!

Posted
7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Yup, that was my first thought. According to some internet info:
Brian M. Taylor based in Parker CO. The business has an address of Frankton, CO. The company apparently creates storage units, like the kind that you put your leftover furniture and stuff in when your house is too full.  Others connected to it are Sarah Westfall and Donald Marcotte the founder, and that's it. 3 employees total that are publicly available via internet info.  Makes absolutely no sense. Chris Wright is from Denver, CO, so it may be some kickback to friends or family, but it needs to be investigated.  

Dunno how accurate this, but it seems likely:  https://www.facebook.com/SUGAR.RHI/videos/1188919929293391/

 

 

It needs to be scrutinized but Wright, though a blowhard, is smart. I’m happy to pay $280MM is a very small price to pay to keep SPR decisions out of Trump’s hands. Or Biden’s hands. And Wright was surely behind that, because Trump will inevitably look at SPR when oil inevitably goes up, and Wright now has cover from a third party when Trump inevitably approaches him on this. There are also structural integrity issues with SPR that this particular group may have specific expertise in addressing. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

What a strange way to live. Anything before MUST have been a grift, so any new grifts happening now are okeydoke. 

Well, it was previously done by Fluor Federal Petroleum Services for a tad less money.  I suppose Fluor is as guilty of being a grifter as any big business, but you kind of tend to think they know what they're doing.  https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/the-strategic-petroleum-reserve

I think that SPP mentioned in that article is a self-storage outfit that is unrelated.  I see there is an SSP LLC formed in Delaware in June 2023 that is a more likely candidate, but not seeing any member/director information.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It needs to be scrutinized but Wright, though a blowhard, is smart. I’m happy to pay $280MM is a very small price to pay to keep SPR decisions out of Trump’s hands. Or Biden’s hands. And Wright was surely behind that, because Trump will inevitably look at SPR when oil inevitably goes up, and Wright now has cover from a third party when Trump inevitably approaches him on this. There are also structural integrity issues with SPR that this particular group may have specific expertise in addressing. 

I seriously doubt this management and operating contract gives decision making powers to Strategic Storage Partners. Come the fuck on man. The guy is wielding tariff powers that aren't granted in the constitution (among other things) but he's going to pay someone else $280MM to tell him when the SPR will release crude?

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

No no you're right, I'm sure the 3 man outfit that runs self storage units in Colorado is a perfect steward of the SPR and it's massive set of underground storage tanks and pipelines in Texas and LA. I'm sure they'll maintain that critical strategic infrastructure well, definitely better than those grifters at Fluor Federal Petroleum Operations.

Since anything before the current administration MUST be a grift right?

You’re an absolute fucking moron, and I’ve concluded you’re no older than 25

Posted
47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tired of winning yet?

What on earth are you even speaking about?  You might wanna stay on topic. And and Captain Dipshit veer off topic constantly in unyielding effort to bash Trump. 

Posted
Just now, Rex Kramer said:

What on earth are you even speaking about?  You might wanna stay on topic. And and Captain Dipshit veer off topic constantly in unyielding effort to bash Trump. 

In fairness, that takes no effort at all.  He's pretty much self-bashing.  Which works out well for me, as I'm pretty lazy.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I seriously doubt this management and operating contract gives decision making powers to Strategic Storage Partners. Come the fuck on man. The guy is wielding tariff powers that aren't granted in the constitution (among other things) but he's going to pay someone else $280MM to tell him when the SPR will release crude?

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Yeah buddy, one day ago in this very thread I was sarcastically celebrating Liberation Day and you saw and responded to the post. Do you of all people not know I have zero respect for Trump?  I mean I’ve complained about him on this site specifically in this thread since I joined the site, and you know it. 

I have a lot of respect for Wright. And I do not know the financial arrangements of the contract, and neither does anyone here. I don’t jump the gun here, just like I didn’t when Hamas reported all kinds of bullshit civilian deaths at the hands of Israel, when posters like Brisket and Captain Dipshit absolutely did. 

Posted
43 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, it was previously done by Fluor Federal Petroleum Services for a tad less money.  I suppose Fluor is as guilty of being a grifter as any big business, but you kind of tend to think they know what they're doing.  https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/the-strategic-petroleum-reserve

I think that SPP mentioned in that article is a self-storage outfit that is unrelated.  I see there is an SSP LLC formed in Delaware in June 2023 that is a more likely candidate, but not seeing any member/director information.

Fluor?  No. This isn’t a grift. Not on the surface. This is a market deal. 

38 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I seriously doubt this management and operating contract gives decision making powers to Strategic Storage Partners. Come the fuck on man. The guy is wielding tariff powers that aren't granted in the constitution (among other things) but he's going to pay someone else $280MM to tell him when the SPR will release crude?

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I reread, and I’m sorry. Yeah Trump will do whatever whenever he wants and if Wright gets in the way, he’ll dispatch him like he did with Rex. That was a dumb comment on my end. 

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In fairness, that takes no effort at all.  He's pretty much self-bashing.  Which works out well for me, as I'm pretty lazy.

I have no idea what you’re talking about with “winning”.

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