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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted
On 11/20/2018 at 10:06 AM, Rusty Shackelford said:

Who wants to call the bottom?

 

On 11/20/2018 at 11:44 AM, Eastwood said:

The rally started in earnest around $43, which is when I got back into the industry, btw, so my super technical call is $43.

 

On 11/20/2018 at 11:47 AM, Rusty Shackelford said:

$43-44 is my guess as well, but I don't know shit.

 

On 11/20/2018 at 2:48 PM, Goofyboy said:

$39. I have zero reason why.

 

On 11/20/2018 at 3:55 PM, Neonmoon said:

41

I believe we might have been a wee bit optimistic 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

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CHK came out with a production report for Q4 this morning that showed significant increases in liquids production well above expected estimates.  Stock rising.  

 

Coupled with the unexpected acquisition of Wildhorse that will pretty much be immediately accretive, it seems as though it is finally building some long-term stability even as much as it's still hated. 

 

Now if we can just get a smart trade deal done with China which will almost assuredly include a bunch of natgas exportation language in it...

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t understand how such a troubled afterthought, joke of a company like CHK gets so much attention on this board. 

Because they’re still the 3rd largest producer of Natty in the US and have totally viable assets.   Not to mention they were one of the innovators of the tech for the shale boom.  They’re just an interesting case study that is finally getting their feet back underneath them after the crazy show that was the end of the Aubrey era 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
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1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

They’re a zombie, and have been since 2012  I’d argue against them being an innovator. Mitchell was an innovator. Chief followed that. Chesapeake and Devon came in and operated terribly. CHK has been widely known as a terrible operator, and piss off every other operator.  Royalty owners hate them. They made their hay using shady bullshit financial engineering, similar to Enron. They don’t compare in any metric to (ironically, given my example in the preceding sentence) a company like EOG. 

Their legacy is two failed companies spawned by their co-founders, Sand Ridge and American Energy Partners, the latter of which culminated in the suicide of their high profile fraud of an owner. AEP’s principals moved on to another soon-to-be failure in White Star. 

There’s a lot to talk about. None of the substance is good. 

I don’t disagree with any of that, but I’m just making an objective argument.    I bought a bunch of the stock in early ‘16 a few days before McClendon’s suicide/death.   I also bought a bunch of bonds at .35 and later sold them in the .85 range.   It’s been a roller coaster, but the management team in place has made a decent effort to steer the company straight and I believe they’ll succeed 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Good luck to you, seriously.  I just feel that's akin to buying Citi 5 years after 2008, because it's a big name, and then watching them futilely trying to unfuck themselves.  Yeah, you can make money, but the fundamentals simply aren't there, and some of the very big problems that plagued them in June 2008 still persist.

I knew the CFO brought in to restructure Sand Ridge.  He knew they were going to go down, and structured his comp accordingly.  He was a very talented guy, and didn't need to take the position.  Always be leery of a management team brought in to clean something up.  There is a reason they are there.  CHK will never rebound to any semblance of former glory, which was a mirage anyway.  It's just not worth it.

CITI also had $100bn of govt money invested into them, same problem with GM, GE, and Chrysler.  I’m not in it forever,  but I’ll take 8-10, which it’ll get to when some PE firm decides it’s a better idea than both you and I think it is 

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sunset87

sunset87 240

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

They’re a zombie, and have been since 2012  I’d argue against them being an innovator. Mitchell was an innovator. Chief followed that. Chesapeake and Devon came in and operated terribly. CHK has been widely known as a terrible operator, and piss off every other operator.  Royalty owners hate them. They made their hay using shady bullshit financial engineering, similar to Enron. They don’t compare in any metric to (ironically, given my example in the preceding sentence) a company like EOG. 

Their legacy is two failed companies spawned by their co-founders, Sand Ridge and American Energy Partners, the latter of which culminated in the suicide of their high profile fraud of an owner. AEP’s principals moved on to another soon-to-be failure in White Star. 

There’s a lot to talk about. None of the substance is good. 

Agree with all of this.  They were the worlds worst at setting lease bonus precedents at 3 to 5 times the going rate, for no apparent reason.  If they showed up in an area we were working, we knew we were fucked.

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Hate

Hate 20106

Posted
Posted

I too am about to be a casualty of the oil field.  The owner of the company I work for has decided to close the business.  He is not going bankrupt, but he is liquidating all of his assets and retiring.  He is essentially taking his toys and going home.  I hope to find new employment outside of this god forsaken industry.  Good luck to all of you oil barons.  

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3357

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hate said:

I too am about to be a casualty of the oil field.  The owner of the company I work for has decided to close the business.  He is not going bankrupt, but he is liquidating all of his assets and retiring.  He is essentially taking his toys and going home.  I hope to find new employment outside of this god forsaken industry.  Good luck to all of you oil barons.  

Good luck in your next endeavor. I hear you on finding employment outside the industry. The last eight years have been anything but stable for me. 

My current gig involves data acquisition and data science, still within the oil and gas space. At least the skills I'm learning now are easily transferable outside the industry so when the next layoff happens I can move on quickly (hopefully). 

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Catpfish

Catpfish 618

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3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Latest casualty reports:

Sanchez laid off about 50 people, 1/3 of their workforce yesterday.

EP stock is down to $0.70 and on the verge of being de-listed. Chapter 11 and massive layoffs in the near future I'd guess.

Well, shit...anyone have any idea on what this does to royalty owners?  EP (bought the lease from Carrizo) just drilled a couple of new wells on family land and are soon to be fracking.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

Posted
Posted

As long as those wells produce, you should still get paid.

Royalty owners are secured creditors under Texas Business and Commerce Code and are typically towards the front of the creditor line in getting paid while the company is in Ch. 11.

Keep an eye out for a Notice of Bankruptcy filing in the mail. If one shows up, contact a bankruptcy attorney or oil and gas attorney with bankruptcy experience for advice on what, if anything, you need to do going forward.

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

Posted
Posted

EIA 2019 report is up on the website if you care to look.

Forecasting $61 Brent will be average and $65 by mid 2020 FWIW.

Their notes.
“Key takeaways from the Reference case include:
The United States becomes a net energy exporter in 2020 and remains so throughout the projection period as a result of large increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production coupled with slow growth in U.S. energy consumption.
Of the fossil fuels, natural gas and NGPLs have the highest production growth, and NGPLs account for almost one-third of cumulative U.S. liquids production during the projection period.
Natural gas prices remain comparatively low based on historical prices during the projection period, leading to increased use of this fuel across end-use sectors and increased liquefied natural gas exports.
The power sector experiences a notable shift in fuels used to generate electricity, driven in part by historically low natural gas prices. Increased natural gas-fired electricity generation; larger shares of intermittent renewables; and additional retirements of less economic coal and nuclear plants occur during the projection period.
Increasing energy efficiency across end-use sectors keeps U.S. energy consumption relatively flat, even as the U.S. economy continues to expand.”

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MAROON

MAROON 445

Posted
Posted
On 1/23/2019 at 2:02 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

EP’s troubles are relevant to my interests. Apollo is going to take a bath on that. I pray that balance sheet issues is not a detriment to field operations during restructuring. 

so will riverstone.  any idea how much of the debt Apollo and Riverstone might hold?  I'm assuming Apollo will do just about everything they can to keep them from going bk.

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Nivek

Nivek 16923

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Posted
Good luck in your next endeavor. I hear you on finding employment outside the industry. The last eight years have been anything but stable for me. 
My current gig involves data acquisition and data science, still within the oil and gas space. At least the skills I'm learning now are easily transferable outside the industry so when the next layoff happens I can move on quickly (hopefully). 

How did you get in? I feel like my resume would be better received if it was written in crayon.
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Dertyberd

Dertyberd 394

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Posted
11 hours ago, Nivek said:


How did you get in? I feel like my resume would be better received if it was written in crayon.

Agreed.  I tried for six months to get in the oil business by calling and sending resumes to people I've known my whole life.  All I heard was "we'll let you know when things pick up", and "are you sure you want to do this, it might be boring for you."?  Who gives a shit if its boring, there's a lot of money being made.  Sure there is uncertainty, but there's also a shitload of money being made by guys in land/title work I know that barely graduated HS. It's not rocket science, but getting in feels harder than NASA.   

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