Hey Oil Barons.......

[Guest]

1 hour ago, The Royal We said:

Not much other than they are now private and I think John Wilder is still on the BOD?

I always thought their assets were a bit odd - especially how much they had in the Marcellus with no market for their product.

Wilder, wow. Looking at some Haynesville royalties they operate, and that they operate scares me. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Noticed the rig count has plateaued over the past 2 months. Been stuck between 750 and 765 dating back to late June. Count just goes up or down 3 or 4 within that range each week. Just below the average of roughly 790 that we were seeing right before Covid (12/19-3/20)

Thanks Larry Fink. 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[babysdaddy 2,719]

So is she going to ban exports of everything besides crude and lng? Does she have the authority?

[Captainant 27,635]

> make a huge shitfit about domestic fuel prices due to global trends 

> Government takes measures to insulate from global trends and protect against future domestic fuel price spikes

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

> make a huge shitfit about domestic fuel prices due to global trends 

> Government takes measures to insulate from global trends and protect against future domestic fuel price spikes

What is the first bullet point for?

[Captainant 27,635]

On 5/10/2022 at 3:53 PM, Porterhouse said:

Way off. I’m more bullish on gas than crude long term. The days of extended $3.50-$4.00 are gone for the foreseeable future. Believe me, I wish they would go down temporarily. 

I do agree we could snap our fingers and nearly double gas production - if we had takeaway capacity - we don’t. 

Lol there's pages and pages from March-July  of y'all complaining about "Biden this" and "Biden that" about prices for crude and refined products, including doomsaying by you in other posts saying we'd never see treefiddy a gallon again. The first bullet point is just reminding you of your prior stances lol

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Lol there's pages and pages from March-July  of y'all complaining about "Biden this" and "Biden that" about prices for crude and refined products, including doomsaying by you in other posts saying we'd never see treefiddy a gallon again. The first bullet point is just reminding you of your prior stances lol

I didn’t say that, even in the post you quoted. Reread what I posted. I’m right. 

Biden and Granholm are not only disastrous for oil and gas prices, they’re hilariously incompetent. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lol there's pages and pages from March-July  of y'all complaining about "Biden this" and "Biden that" about prices for crude and refined products, including doomsaying by you in other posts saying we'd never see treefiddy a gallon again. The first bullet point is just reminding you of your prior stances lol

 

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

I didn’t say that, even in the post you quoted. Reread what I posted. I’m right. 

Biden and Granholm are not only disastrous for oil and gas prices, they’re hilariously incompetent. 

I’ll give you a hint. Since I made that comment, prices haven’t fallen below $5.42, have averaged $8, and closed yesterday, down to $9.32. 

[babysdaddy 2,719]

Lol there's pages and pages from March-July  of y'all complaining about "Biden this" and "Biden that" about prices for crude and refined products, including doomsaying by you in other posts saying we'd never see treefiddy a gallon again. The first bullet point is just reminding you of your prior stances lol

You confused Nat gas with gasoline. Lol.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

You confused Nat gas with gasoline. Lol.

He thinks that because we’re critical of Biden that we must be MAGA. It’s his MO. He’s very black and white. 

Also, I love it when non-energy folks wade in here and say stupid shit. This guy routinely steps on his dick. 

[fattyflattie 4,639]

21 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

You confused Nat gas with gasoline. Lol.

Firsttime.gif?  

[Armybrat 40,822]

So, Granholm won’t allow LNG exports even if Germany comes begging?

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

So, Granholm won’t allow LNG exports even if Germany comes begging?

Supported by Captainant and cactusflinthead

[Humble Beast 258]

6 hours ago, Armybrat said:

So, Granholm won’t allow LNG exports even if Germany comes begging?

 

6 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Supported by Captainant and cactusflinthead

Pretty sure Granholm was referencing gasoline. 

[Loop 1604 227]

On 8/15/2022 at 1:06 PM, Voldemort86 said:

and yeah I don’t know shit about oil and gas. Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.

[Loop 1604 227]

On 8/26/2022 at 8:15 PM, Humble Beast said:

 

US operators: Nah, we’re good. We don’t answer to DC politico shitbags that know absolutely nothing at all about how to get oil and gas out of the ground and to consumers. Best of luck though!

I hope gas hits $15/mcf this winter. Fuck it.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Loop 1604

[52-80 19,147]

17 hours ago, Armybrat said:

So, Granholm won’t allow LNG exports even if Germany comes begging?

not before the midterms.  just hoping heavy snowfall doesnt hit the continent before that

 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

US operators: Nah, we’re good. We don’t answer to DC politico shitbags that know absolutely nothing at all about how to get oil and gas out of the ground and to consumers. Best of luck though!

I hope gas hits $15/mcf this winter. Fuck it.

Yep. Granholm and Biden are gonna learn pretty quickly they’ve alienated the industry and will dare them to get more involved to increase prices further. And we are absolutely trending to $15/mcf. Not sure if it’ll be this winter. I hope it is. 

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

4 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

I hope gas hits $15/mcf this winter. Fuck it.

1. Freeport comes back online early.

2. Polar vortex hits in January

3. ???

4. $15 HH

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,188]

15 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

US operators: Nah, we’re good. We don’t answer to DC politico shitbags that know absolutely nothing at all about how to get oil and gas out of the ground and to consumers. Best of luck though!

Based on the number of O&G companies that couldn't handle a downturn in an industry noted for its downturns, it looks like a lot of US operators don't know shit about shinola either.

[52-80 19,147]

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Based on the number of O&G companies that couldn't handle a downturn in an industry noted for its downturns, it looks like a lot of US operators don't know shit about shinola either.

Poor execution and capital discipline by the O&G operators lead to lower prices for everyone else. Who is the admin purporting to care for here?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,188]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Poor execution and capital discipline by the O&G operators lead to lower prices for everyone else. Who is the admin purporting to care for here?

Inefficient use of capital is never a good thing.

[52-80 19,147]

5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Inefficient use of capital is never a good thing.

for their shareholders

no tears from me if private companies fail as a consequence of their incompetence

Edited August 30, 2022 by 52-80

[The Royal We 3,067]

I tend to think this line of thinking that operators are purposefully not drilling wells to spite the Biden admin is pure fan fiction.  They might be sitting on drilling locations that would be profitable with current prices, but it's more likely that their capital providers are pulling the reins back and not their spite at the Biden admin's posture toward the industry.

Maybe I'm way off and my clients just haven't mentioned this to me as a reason for their conservative drilling schedules.  I've heard a few other reasons - supply chain issues, capital providers, etc., but wanting to shove it up the tailpipe of the Biden admin is not one of them.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, The Royal We said:

I tend to think this line of thinking that operators are purposefully not drilling wells to spite the Biden admin is pure fan fiction.  They might be sitting on drilling locations that would be profitable with current prices, but it's more likely that their capital providers are pulling the reins back and not their spite at the Biden admin's posture toward the industry.

Maybe I'm way off and my clients just haven't mentioned this to me as a reason for their conservative drilling schedules.  I've heard a few other reasons - supply chain issues, capital providers, etc., but wanting to shove it up the tailpipe of the Biden admin is not one of them.

Of course it is. It’s being pushed by Biden admin to obfuscate their culpability and erect a straw man. Why would any oil and gas company NOT want to make more money in lieu of sticking it to the Dems?  It’s absurd. A dearth of capital is a very real thing, very very slowly coming back, and will cause prices to remain high. And I love this for a few reasons.  

[babysdaddy 2,719]

Capital discipline is currently the name of the game for public companies.  This started in 2014-2016 when they began to be valued based on cashflow vs. historic valuation metrics around proven reserves. They are also dealing without the correct labor and capital equipment. While Biden and his energy secretary are both passionate about solving climate change by restricting the development of fossil fuels, their language and general disposition are irrelevant to current pricing.

[Guest]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-halts-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-ratcheting-up-pressure-on-europe-11661933607?mod=djem_EnergyJournal

[Hozz 1,017]

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-halts-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-ratcheting-up-pressure-on-europe-11661933607?mod=djem_EnergyJournal

EPA not going to be happy.

 

Spoiler

Rigzone | Tuesday, August 30, 2022

'Many see the move as a power play to ratchet up political pressure on European supporters of Ukraine'. 

Russia is giving the term ‘power burn’ a whole new meaning by flaring its gas instead of exporting it to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline. 

That’s what energy and environmental geo-analytics company Kayrros stated in a new market note sent to Rigzone, adding that the term is usually used to evoke the burning of natural gas in power plants. 

Since June, satellite data from VIIRS and Sentinel-2 processed by Kayrros has shown “abnormally high” flaring from the Portovaya compressor station on the Russian-Finnish border, the entry point for Gazprom’s Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany, Kayrros outlined. S-2 images suggest flaring likely began when Russia started rationing gas exports in June, “ostensibly for maintenance reasons”, Kayrros noted. 

“Many see the move as a power play to ratchet up political pressure on European supporters of Ukraine that depend on Russian gas for their winter needs,” Kayrros said in the note. 

“High flaring also suggests Gazprom might prefer to burn gas than to shut-in production, perhaps in the hope that the export cuts will remain temporary,” Kayrros added. 

In the note, Kayrros outlined that, faced with reduced Russian gas supplies, Europe continues to import “much more LNG than normal, with the U.S. accounting for most of the increase”. 

“Europe has continued to import LNG at unprecedented rates this summer in a bid to make up for reduced exports of Russian piped gas,” Kayrros stated. 

“European LNG imports significantly exceeded the level of previous years in the first half of 2022. They have since remained elevated and have not shown much of the seasonal decline normally seen in the summer,” the company added. 

If Nord Stream 1 Flows Cut to Nil 

If Nord Stream 1 flows are cut to nil, absent demand destruction, European gas inventories would be exhausted by year-end, BofA Global Research stated in a report sent to Rigzone recently. 

“More worryingly, even at 20 percent NS1 capacity utilization (equal to current flows), we project the same outcome just one winter later in 2023/2024,” BofA Global Research added in the report. 

“While NS1 used to deliver ~10 percent of Europe’s gas demand and carried ~35 percent of Russian piped exports as of 2021, we believe minimum 2022 levels implied by Europe’s take-or-pay contracts with Gazprom could be serviced without any flows from NS1,” the company continued. 

BofA Global Research highlighted in the report that a 10 percent gas demand reduction year on year across the first half of 2022 has contributed to restoring current European gas inventory levels to five-year averages from record lows in January. 

“We believe further demand destruction in Europe will be necessary to fill storage to targeted levels (90 percent) and avoid inventory depletion into next winter,” BofA Global Research stated in the report. 

“Without any NS1 flows, we believe demand destruction will have to annualize near 10 percent. We believe most of this will likely come from the more price-elastic non-heating demand in power generation and industrial consumption - of which >20 percent may have to be permanently destroyed,” BofA Global Research added. 

 

[Laxtonto 12,078]

So OPEC+ is dropping the 100k bpd increase they agreed to last month. Back to the same production levels from earlier this summer.
 

So I am guessing we are going to crude back up to close to $100, but we won’t see those increases at the pump for a few week lag. The jaded side of me ask if we got the Saudi’s to agree to do a shorterm drop to get us through the end of summer/Labor Day. 

[Storm the Field 5,294]

Colgate and Centennial merger is official. New company is called, simply, Permian Resources.

[Guest]

Co-CEOs are dumb. Hickey a good dude. 

[52-80 19,147]

Any looked fully into the details of the so-called G7 price caps on Russian oil?

They capping the price at which G7 key members import RU crude, or all G7 members?  or they capping the price of all the transactions in which G7 members are providing services (e.g. legal or transport or etc)

The first does almost nothing.  Second does more.  Third would be quite severe... but also as with all these things, companies find loopholes to do their business things anyway.

Only key member of G7 that directly import RU oil is Germany, which is ~25% of RU-Europe crude export, and 12.5% of RU-global crude export.  Non primary G7 members make up of 50% RU-global crude export.

[Laxtonto 12,078]

Oil is dropping fast today (Brent is under 90 and WTI under84) even with the built in OPEC+ production cuts.

We all know OPEC prefers to try and keep Brent around $100, (especially after the beating they took during COVID), but with expected weaker global demand and Russia flooding what they can into the market at a discount, how much of an additional production cut would they be willing to do?

This will be a fun one to follow because with weakening demand globally, China buying more Russian oil, and the approaching winter I am not real sure how OPEC tries to stabilize the price when there is so much uncertainty in demand. 

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Oil is dropping fast today (Brent is under 90 and WTI under84) even with the built in OPEC+ production cuts.

We all know OPEC prefers to try and keep Brent around $100, (especially after the beating they took during COVID), but with expected weaker global demand and Russia flooding what they can into the market at a discount, how much of an additional production cut would they be willing to do?

This will be a fun one to follow because with weakening demand globally, China buying more Russian oil, and the approaching winter I am not real sure how OPEC tries to stabilize the price when there is so much uncertainty in demand. 

This is where SWA comes in and says, “yeah we’re hedging 75% of our 2023-2025 jet fuel volume today”. 

[Guest]

Someone is intentionally giving Beeks bad information. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,447]

23 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Colgate and Centennial merger is official. New company is called, simply, Permian Resources.

That name. Jesus. Maybe the worst one yet. Makes Chord look inspired. 

[52-80 19,147]

5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

That name. Jesus. Maybe the worst one yet. Makes Chord look inspired. 

 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

 

Everyone needs Dong Energy. 

[sidis 9,823]

Big Dong Energy...

[YGIFS 19,449]

So y'all going long on Dong Energy, or what?  I mean, sure it could hurt the duck population... but I'm a preservationist at heart.  

Edited September 7, 2022 by YGIFS

[Grimas 669]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

 

I was a division "head" at DONG Energy 10 years ago before they sold their E&P assets...  My friends love calling me the "Dick Head" or the "Head Dick"...  Much better place to work than Maersk in DK but they f-ed up when they went all "green" with windmills...  It actually stood for Danish Oil and Natural Gas but I'm convinced it was some guys wearing capri pants that were drinking wine on a sailboat that said "Let's call it DONG and see what people say..."

[Grimas 669]

7 minutes ago, Grimas said:

I was a division "head" at DONG Energy 10 years ago before they sold their E&P assets...  My friends love calling me the "Dick Head" or the "Head Dick"...  Much better place to work than Maersk in DK but they f-ed up when they went all "green" with windmills...  It actually stood for Danish Oil and Natural Gas but I'm convinced it was some guys wearing capri pants that were drinking wine on a sailboat that said "Let's call it DONG and see what people say..."

Those were actually fun days - we had a company sponsored "brew club" and used the campus kitchen to brew beer every month... Of course, the 53% income tax (expat discount!) rate sucked but a great place to raise kids...

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grimas

[Guest]

On 9/7/2022 at 9:09 AM, Laxtonto said:

Oil is dropping fast today (Brent is under 90 and WTI under84) even with the built in OPEC+ production cuts.

We all know OPEC prefers to try and keep Brent around $100, (especially after the beating they took during COVID), but with expected weaker global demand and Russia flooding what they can into the market at a discount, how much of an additional production cut would they be willing to do?

This will be a fun one to follow because with weakening demand globally, China buying more Russian oil, and the approaching winter I am not real sure how OPEC tries to stabilize the price when there is so much uncertainty in demand. 

From everything I hear (not on CNBC) this isn’t a demand issue. It’s a paper issue, and that as we approach mid September contract expiry, we are gonna shoot back up. 

[tequila 317]

17 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

From everything I hear (not on CNBC) this isn’t a demand issue. It’s a paper issue, and that as we approach mid September contract expiry, we are gonna shoot back up. 

Care to expound?  I have a bit of hedging to do prior to month end and I'm of the opinion that we're beyond oversold right now.  

[52-80 19,147]

16 minutes ago, tequila said:

Care to expound?  I have a bit of hedging to do prior to month end and I'm of the opinion that we're beyond oversold right now.  

The prices of the futures reflect the participants relative positioning in that particular market, but not the physical markets (i.e. spot direct sales).  As the futures contract near expiration, the prices will have to converge (in his claim, upwards towards the physical), because the futures contract result in actual oil delivery, creating an arbitrage opportunity.

I'm not sure I agree on the assertion of how wide that price gap is right now.  E.g. if you were a legit buyer of oil, unless you have severely liquidity constrained, why wouldn't you gobble up the 'discounted' CL right now?

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, tequila said:

Care to expound?  I have a bit of hedging to do prior to month end and I'm of the opinion that we're beyond oversold right now.  

Why by month end?  What is the trigger?

I have hedges I want to unwind, and this information suggests doing it now or early next week. All fundamentals indicate prices should be WAY higher. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The prices of the futures reflect the participants relative positioning in that particular market, but not the physical markets (i.e. spot direct sales).  As the futures contract near expiration, the prices will have to converge (in his claim, upwards towards the physical), because the futures contract result in actual oil delivery, creating an arbitrage opportunity.

I'm not sure I agree on the assertion of how wide that price gap is right now.  E.g. if you were a legit buyer of oil, unless you have severely liquidity constrained, why wouldn't you gobble up the 'discounted' CL right now?

Spot prices do NOT comport with the strip right now. 

[tequila 317]

6 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Why by month end?  What is the trigger?

I have hedges I want to unwind, and this information suggests doing it now or early next week. All fundamentals indicate prices should be WAY higher. 

RBL redetermination/compliance.  There's some leeway, but don't want to get stuck offsides.  

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, tequila said:

RBL redetermination/compliance.  There's some leeway, but don't want to get stuck offsides.  

Which bank?  

I’d beg, borrow and steal before executing new hedges, particularly if I’m not highly levered. Who’s your bank, and what is advance rate and utilization?