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936horn

By 936horn
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52-80

52-80 19381

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Spot prices do NOT comport with the strip right now. 

EIA shows spot at 87.4 on tuesday.  clv2 (oct) closed tuesday at 86.9.  close enough for me.

or youre saying the intermediate+ duration is underpriced?  in which case i agree. im long on CY2023 contracts... but on that timeframe obv this is all speculative on our behalf

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12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

EIA shows spot at 87.4 on tuesday.  clv2 (oct) closed tuesday at 86.9.  close enough for me.

or youre saying the intermediate+ duration is underpriced?  in which case i agree. im long on CY2023 contracts... but on that timeframe obv this is all speculative on our behalf

WTI closed at $81.94 yesterday and rallied to get to that?

Im talking short term, intermediate and long. We are vastly underpriced. The strip is not reality. Wait. 

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Posted
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2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Their policy is idiotic. When it starts crippling their economy, they’ll relax. It’s already stunted their growth. It doesn’t matter a great deal given the lack of supply. 

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Posted
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1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

No kidding. Just because you say it doesn't mean it's true. The CR Covid thread hasn't even been updated in almost a week.

We were at a dinner and openly pondered whether or not Covid was still a pandemic. There are no restrictions in countries with heads out of their asses. 

Im still concerned for my Dad, who has developed lung complications at 71, but everyone in my immediate family has tested positive for it except my wife (hard to imagine she didn’t get it too), we’ve all been boosted twice - it’s not really a thing anymore here. 

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MoJames

MoJames 8258

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

We were at a dinner and openly pondered whether or not Covid was still a pandemic. There are no restrictions in countries with heads out of their asses. 

Im still concerned for my Dad, who has developed lung complications at 71, but everyone in my immediate family has tested positive for it except my wife (hard to imagine she didn’t get it too), we’ve all been boosted twice - it’s not really a thing anymore here. 

It's endemic at this point and no longer a significant concern in most situations. Our ICU was running at 20+ throughout the pandemic (pre-pandemic around 5). We've been at around 3 patients since March. I don't believe we have had a single COVID patient require the ICU. Everyone up to this point has exposure through vaccine or infection (even asymptomatic). We are on our way to putting this behind us. It will become much more clear as we move through the winter. The addition of Paxlovid and Monoclonals have moved the needle even more.

I would imagine the amount of people on the board that want lockdown is a similar fraction to those still using Ivermectin. It's the minority.

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11 minutes ago, MoJames said:

It's endemic at this point and no longer a significant concern in most situations. Our ICU was running at 20+ throughout the pandemic (pre-pandemic around 5). We've been at around 3 patients since March. I don't believe we have had a single COVID patient require the ICU. Everyone up to this point has exposure through vaccine or infection (even asymptomatic). We are on our way to putting this behind us. It will become much more clear as we move through the winter. The addition of Paxlovid and Monoclonals have moved the needle even more.

I would imagine the amount of people on the board that want lockdown is a similar fraction to those still using Ivermectin. It's the minority.

I haven’t been paying attention but haven’t seen that on the board here. Good to hear on your anecdotes from your hospital. I heard that perhaps the Chinese have a much less effective vaccine?

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MoJames

MoJames 8258

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

I haven’t been paying attention but haven’t seen that on the board here. Good to hear on your anecdotes from your hospital. I heard that perhaps the Chinese have a much less effective vaccine?

More than anything they are looking for a zero spread, which is a ridiculous goal.

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52-80

52-80 19381

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, MoJames said:

More than anything they are looking for a zero spread, which is a ridiculous goal.

its fucking impossible.  theres some hairbrained conspiracy that i can see being concocted out of the lockdown (e.g. plausible cover for domestic economic slowdown) , but prob the simplest explanation is their stubbornly sticking to the original response

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Just now, Incredulity said:

Go check out the vax thread. Or the other 3 covid threads. It’s completely bizarre.

Nah. I’ll take your word for it. This place is full of extremists that think their takes on the world aren’t contrarian. It’s funny. 

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29318

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/12/2022 at 8:52 AM, Porterhouse said:

I haven’t been paying attention but haven’t seen that on the board here. Good to hear on your anecdotes from your hospital. I heard that perhaps the Chinese have a much less effective vaccine?

The Chinese made vaccine wasn't particularly effective against the original COVID strain or Delta and flat out doesn't offer protection from Omicron. Factor in that they've had very little community spread and that means the vast majority of the Chinese population has no antibody protection against COVID. It's backed the communist party into having to do non-sensical lockdowns.

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10 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

NG- despite recent downward pressure, is this a decent entry point before the winter heating season drives it up to $10/mcf+? 

Asking for me. 

matthew mcconaughey cheers GIF by REBEKAH

It’s better now than it was 10 hours ago. 

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8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Global recession fears. Central banks worldwide raising rates to fight inflation.

Powell is an absolute moron. This is noise that’ll quiet down by early November. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

Posted
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SPR releases should be ending soon. If anything, now's the time we should start reloading the SPR.  Sell ~150M barrels at average price of $100, re-fill at $80. 

Reactions to each week's EIA report have been comical in light of the SPR sales. 

Every Wednesday at 9:30:

Headline: "Surprise 1.5M barrel build in crude inventories this week!"

Me: "But there were 7M barrels released from SPR. Wouldn't that have been a 5.5M barrel draw otherwise?" 

 

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19491

Posted
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3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Biden’s move, from his feeble mind, has proven to be a smart one. When combined with a dumb market, and Powell’s moves, oil & gasoline have been tamed. 

The problem is he’s a short-sighted idiot. Inflation isn’t getting tamed before the mid-terms, and probably not before the ‘24 election, but the impact of rates going up 225 bps (just this year?) is already having devastating effects on the markets and economy. The Dems will be blasted in the mid-terms, just in time for crude/gasoline to swing sharply up, the SPR depleted, inflation still sky-high, an economy in shambles, a Fed Chair who doesn’t give a fuck about politics (no relief), and not a chance in the ‘24 election. 

Take it to CR, fucknut.

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12 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Good. Hope you take your own advice going forward.  Fucknut.

 

9 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yep, just like how Rex said that RDS, BP, EQNR, etc were playing politics with their ESG programs and it should be taken to CR.

No clue what you’re talking about in either post. You might want to stop following me around in general and particularly in this thread. 

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On 9/23/2022 at 11:40 AM, Storm the Field said:

SPR releases should be ending soon. If anything, now's the time we should start reloading the SPR.  Sell ~150M barrels at average price of $100, re-fill at $80. 

Reactions to each week's EIA report have been comical in light of the SPR sales. 

Every Wednesday at 9:30:

Headline: "Surprise 1.5M barrel build in crude inventories this week!"

Me: "But there were 7M barrels released from SPR. Wouldn't that have been a 5.5M barrel draw otherwise?" 

 

 

Draws across the board in crude and products. Production dropped 100,000 barrels per day and refinery runs dropped 604,000 barrels per day.

 

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torre

torre 1298

Posted
Posted (edited)

@Porterhouse  @Storm the Field or  anyone     Thoughts  ?

 

excerpt:

 

 

 

Summary

Cuts could include Saudi voluntary reduction

Largest cut since pandemic reduction

Oil fell due to rising Fed rates, weak economy

DUBAI, Oct 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) next week, OPEC sources said on Sunday, in what would be the biggest move yet since the COVID-19 pandemic to address oil market weakness.

The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against the backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.

OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, has refused to raise output to lower oil prices despite pressure from major consumers, including the United States, to help the global economy.

Prices have nevertheless fallen sharply in the last month due to fears about the global economy and a rally in the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserves raised rates.

A significant production cut is poised to anger the United States, which has been putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to continue pumping more to help oil prices soften further and reduce revenues for Russia as the West seeks to punish Moscow for sending troops to Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-consider-oil-output-cut-over-1-mln-bpd-sources-2022-10-02/

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, torre said:

@Porterhouse  @Storm the Field or  anyone     Thoughts  ?

 

excerpt:

 

 

 

Summary

Cuts could include Saudi voluntary reduction

Largest cut since pandemic reduction

Oil fell due to rising Fed rates, weak economy

DUBAI, Oct 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) next week, OPEC sources said on Sunday, in what would be the biggest move yet since the COVID-19 pandemic to address oil market weakness.

The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against the backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.

OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, has refused to raise output to lower oil prices despite pressure from major consumers, including the United States, to help the global economy.

Prices have nevertheless fallen sharply in the last month due to fears about the global economy and a rally in the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserves raised rates.

A significant production cut is poised to anger the United States, which has been putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to continue pumping more to help oil prices soften further and reduce revenues for Russia as the West seeks to punish Moscow for sending troops to Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-consider-oil-output-cut-over-1-mln-bpd-sources-2022-10-02/

 

 

 

 

 

My immediate thoughts are as to whether or not Saudis can sustain their current level, and this voluntary cut is a smokescreen. That risk should be viewed as an inevitability but the world doesn’t think like that, and traders aren’t focused on it.

Angering Americans is hilarious.  I wouldn’t give the slightest fuck if I were Saudi.  It’s not their responsibility to keep American citizens’ gasoline prices low.  It’s not their fault Biden and Granholm asked them (and Venezuela), instead of US producers, to increase their output.  They’re under no obligation to us. 

It’ll be interesting to see what occurs after the mid-terms and SPR releases cease. That is skewing everything. I still predict a whipsaw effect where crude skyrockets back up.  It’s not a matter of if, a matter of when. A recession won’t stop crude from skyrocketing. 

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3522

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

 

Angering Americans is hilarious.  I wouldn’t give the slightest fuck if I were Saudi.  It’s not their responsibility to keep American citizens’ gasoline prices low.  It’s not their fault Biden and Granholm asked them (and Venezuela), instead of US producers, to increase their output.  They’re under no obligation to us. 

 

This is an incorrect statement.

You might listen to Devon CEO Rick Muncrief on this issue.

I have and he's made me a ton of $$$$.

 

The political stuff blinds people into making bad energy investments; that's why I've stayed away from "hot political takes" for 35 years.

You do you.

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4 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

This is an incorrect statement.

You might listen to Devon CEO Rick Muncrief on this issue.

I have and he's made me a ton of $$$$.

 

The political stuff blinds people into making bad energy investments; that's why I've stayed away from "hot political takes" for 35 years.

You do you.

It’s not, no thanks, congrats, it’s helped me tremendously, and will do. 

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9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

OPEC+ cutting 2M barrels a day off their current production, not their theoretical quotas they already aren't reaching. 

Market expected 1MMBL/D cut?

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