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936horn

By 936horn
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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/13/2024 at 12:06 AM, tx 3 putt said:

According to JPMorgan, the U.S. has achieved energy independence for the first time in 40 years.

Celebrate In Love GIF by Max

Link?  I’d be interested to read an article where we produce 50% of what we consume (and not even that because of what we export) and a conclusion is we have energy independence. We have nat gas independence. We don’t have crude independence and never will again. 

Crude prices are irrelevant to one nation’s production / consumption / independence because of the global nature of the commodity. Gas independence is totally relevant to prices because of the regional nature of the commodity (lack of transport capability excluding minimal global LNG capacity). This is why the Biden admin’s LNG pause announcement, while it has no immediate impact, was monumentally stupid. 

I’m bullish on crude in the short mid and long term mainly because of the hyperbolic declining nature of US shale. When the Permian peaks, and it will later this year of ‘25, it’ll possibly set off a slight panic. 

Bearish on gas in the short term and maybe mid term. Long term I think we are in the early innings of a 15 year super up cycle. 

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Armybrat

Armybrat 41429

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The Continental Resources wells recently completed in one part of my lease are contributing to that “surplus”.

The IPs on a couple of them are coming in at 2,200-3,200 BOPD so far. The lower end wells are 700-1,500. 
Dunno about the gas.

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Dr Fear

Dr Fear 1290

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Posted
The Continental Resources wells recently completed in one part of my lease are contributing to that “surplus”.
The IPs on a couple of them are coming in at 2,200-3,200 BOPD so far. The lower end wells are 700-1,500. 
Dunno about the gas.
Where at?
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Armybrat

Armybrat 41429

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:
1 hour ago, Armybrat said:
The Continental Resources wells recently completed in one part of my lease are contributing to that “surplus”.
The IPs on a couple of them are coming in at 2,200-3,200 BOPD so far. The lower end wells are 700-1,500. 
Dunno about the gas.

Where at?

North Dakota Bakken.

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


Yes, it’s a good sign. 

That the purported independence occurred in Trump’s 3rd year?  I’m not sure that’s the message you want to convey to your CR buddies on the Dark Brandon thread. 

Regardless, it’s a totally meaningless sign. One that signals we have a glut of gas that isn’t compatible with most of our country’s transportation energy needs.  The graph doesn’t tell anything other than that. I would argue it’s a BAD sign that your champion’s energy department has that much gas in its borders, and puts policies in place that show it has zero idea had to administer that tremendous resource. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

So, aggy NIL is awash only in oil money, and not in gas? 

Yeah, those clips from Nebraska fans about all that A&M oil money were weird as fuck.  I swear there's some kinda corn ethanol play in there but I can't figure it out.  About once a year, UTIMCO and THECB and UTS BoR get inundated with the usual "Divest from O&G now!!!" from student groups at myriad campuses.  I even get it in my classroom.  And somebody has to explain, "It's not that we're investing in O&G stocks, it's that the University Lands that are the basis of our endowment are already in O&G.  It's not like we cash your tuition check and send the cash to Conoco Phillips young lady."  But I guess, there should be a better communication stream between how our higher ed systems get funded to our students/parents/donors.  But yeah this week, watching those Nebraska fans complaining about "A&M Oil Money" was kinda funny to me.  Considering their past in athletics, they may want to tap the brakes.  

Anywho, back to energy.  SMR's.  Getting some traction.  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

That the purported independence occurred in Trump’s 3rd year?  I’m not sure that’s the message you want to convey to your CR buddies on the Dark Brandon thread. 

Regardless, it’s a totally meaningless sign. One that signals we have a glut of gas that isn’t compatible with most of our country’s transportation energy needs.  The graph doesn’t tell anything other than that. I would argue it’s a BAD sign that your champion’s energy department has that much gas in its borders, and puts policies in place that show it has zero idea had to administer that tremendous resource. 

On the other hand, GOP folks keep crowing that we WERE energy independent under Trump (based on the same "net exporter" metric) but that Biden has crippled it. Trump lately has been dusting off the  "we're gonna drill, baby, drill" line as one of the top priorities in his 2nd term. All of which is pretty fucking dumb given current production levels and import/export numbers.

By and large, people outside the industry, both on the left and right, have absolutely no idea what they are talking about when mixing politics and O&G.

Edited by Storm the Field
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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

On the other hand, GOP folks keep crowing that we WERE energy independent under Trump (based on the same "net exporter" metric) but that Biden has crippled it. Trump lately has been dusting off the  "we're gonna drill, baby, drill" line as one of the top priorities in his 2nd term. All of which is pretty fucking dumb given current production levels and import/export numbers.

By and large, people outside the industry, both on the left and right, have absolutely no idea what they are talking about when mixing politics and O&G.

Agreed. I’m no fan of Trump in general or his manipulation of oil prices, and he monkeyed with SPR as Biden has. Trump has a populist angle to keep prices lower but is a much bigger champion of the industry whereas Biden and his Energy Dept have been outright hostile. But any notion of energy independence then or now is fraught with ignorant folly at best and arrogant political scoreboarding for simpletons of whichever party to eat up.   The posters that celebrated the JPM report of independence, I know at least 1 of the 5 knows better and probably 2 of 5.  Again, that graph is meaningless nonsense.

I would rather have a champion encouraging more exploration because whenever the Permian peaks, we’ll have a possible crisis. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

But I guess, there should be a better communication stream between how our higher ed systems get funded to our students/parents/donors.

No there shouldn’t be any increased communication effort. If any idiots want to do a modicum of research, instead of emotionally rant, what you laid out is very easy to understand. Or they can choose to simply not attend UT. It might make for a less nutty Cloak Room in the future, but fuck that. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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No, I get it.  But just those rants from UNL fans about the AD going to Aggie just percolated it again this week.  It happens almost on an annual basis and it's like Gaza or some other energy-based rant.  But ours is particularly puzzling because yeah it'd be one thing if there were billions of dollars directly invested in global equities on the O&G side.  But the UTIMCO endowment is a different animal altogether.  But yeah, to your point---it's almost not even worth explaining.  Either they get that it helps keep their tuition down or they don't.  We get they don't want a lecture in royalties v. minerals or upstream v. midstream, but at some point, there's gotta be a way to just point out "Look, we're not taking your pell grant money and buying Exxon stock!"  But it's a nice problem to have given our land holdings.  Anyway, look for some other news on the E&P side on UT Foundation Lands at the end of the quarter.  And then probably an ensuing protest.  

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6788

Posted
Posted
On 3/15/2024 at 9:17 AM, Rex Kramer said:

That the purported independence occurred in Trump’s 3rd year?  I’m not sure that’s the message you want to convey to your CR buddies on the Dark Brandon thread. 

Regardless, it’s a totally meaningless sign. One that signals we have a glut of gas that isn’t compatible with most of our country’s transportation energy needs.  The graph doesn’t tell anything other than that. I would argue it’s a BAD sign that your champion’s energy department has that much gas in its borders, and puts policies in place that show it has zero idea had to administer that tremendous resource. 

Why are you asking someone else on the internet to find you a report that is easily found?

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Why are you asking someone else on the internet to find you a report that is easily found?

I won’t lift a finger to read a bullshit report. He’s had multiple opportunities to link it here but won’t because he knows it’ll be ridiculed. Go back to CR lil buddy. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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14 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Ah yes the “bullshit” report from noted librul rag JP Morgan.  The socialists at that institution have run this country into the ground. Not once did I see a 100/bbl guess in the 57 page write up.

Why is this about politics for you?  I love Jamie Dimon. He’s the best CEO out there. He routinely owns grandstanding congressmen, in particular tlaib and Warren, and if he were to run as President I’d vote for him regardless of which party he’d run for and it’d probably be Democrat  

I’ve explained why it’s a bullshit report despite my affinity for Dimon and frankly JPM. You can argue with me, but then again, I strongly suspect you cannot. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

No you haven’t. You didn’t read the report. It’s politics for you reading your own posts in this thread shows that.

I don’t want to discuss politics at all, but I know exactly with whom I’m dealing with you and the ugly whoremonger.  I’m not going to read the article because I already know what it says and have posted three times why it’s wrong. It’s basic to anyone who follows the industry. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

It is a 57 page report you have not read and have not refuted. You’ve chubbed up some responses to graphs in this thread for oil and guess responses, but nothing approaching serious or respectable

Ok

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

Posted
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Just now, StassneyHorn said:

What’s our oracles next guess on $100?

I don’t know. I suspect ‘25 but could be this year. Election could delay that. If Trump is elected, stock and crude markets will temporarily go down. Or not; I think both expect him to win. 

Permian will continue to churn out prolific wells that will offset other oil shale basins’ decline that exists today. The Eagle Ford, Bakken, D-J and others are in irreversible decline. People don’t realize that. Largely because the Permian is masking it. That will change, and I expect in ‘25. Maybe some signs of it this year but I expect election (and serious civil unrest) to keep it down in ‘24.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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well the catch is Blackrock's global equities side has $120bn+ invested in Texas-based O&G.  So somebody gets pouty about this and allocations may get redeployed.  Won't make a huge rift just the conflation of our 4th largest endowment and arguably the nation's biggest ii wrt to O&G in Texas.  Just something in the news, that's all.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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I''m looking at their allocation policy.  It's $170bn.  Obviously there's nuance to what is considered "headquartered" in Texas and what is actual E&P/midstream/refinery physically in Texas.  But it's something in that low 9-figure/high 8-figure ballpark.  

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

well the catch is Blackrock's global equities side has $120bn+ invested in Texas-based O&G.  So somebody gets pouty about this and allocations may get redeployed.  Won't make a huge rift just the conflation of our 4th largest endowment and arguably the nation's biggest ii wrt to O&G in Texas.  Just something in the news, that's all.  

They don’t. That’s probably what they’ve committed over time (probably only over last 15 years), the vast majority of which has been returned and made them a shit ton of money. But BlackRock fucked around and found out.  They’ve been HARD on the wrong side of ESG, and have been the poster child for investing only in renewables.  Yes, they had been walking back their ridiculous stance, but fuck ‘em. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

I''m looking at their allocation policy.  It's $170bn.  Obviously there's nuance to what is considered "headquartered" in Texas and what is actual E&P/midstream/refinery physically in Texas.  But it's something in that low 9-figure/high 8-figure ballpark.  

You need a lot more detail than this. Allocated to energy?  What is committed of that amount?  What is ACTUAL energy like hydrocarbons and midstream and services?

Even then, who cares what they’ve currently committed?  Are they gonna fuck themselves with Oxy because Texas told them to hit the bricks?  Good luck I guess. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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It's committed capital/capital call money.  To your point, it's not terrribly clear other than "Texas-based" (which could just be G&A headquarters or actual E&P or even alts/renewables).  I'm guessing now that I look at it again, it's purposely obfuscating to give them cover down the road.  Dunno, but it was just something I was talking about this morning at with a TPSF/GLO guy because it wasn't a non-substantial amount of capital removed from Blackrock.  We'd be talking about this same thing were it TRS or ERS as well.  not the first time, and sure as shit won't be the last time something like this happens.  

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1538

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53 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

It's committed capital/capital call money.  To your point, it's not terrribly clear other than "Texas-based" (which could just be G&A headquarters or actual E&P or even alts/renewables).  I'm guessing now that I look at it again, it's purposely obfuscating to give them cover down the road.  Dunno, but it was just something I was talking about this morning at with a TPSF/GLO guy because it wasn't a non-substantial amount of capital removed from Blackrock.  We'd be talking about this same thing were it TRS or ERS as well.  not the first time, and sure as shit won't be the last time something like this happens.  

Whatever. BR has been vocal about renewables only and ESG, and a lot of their bigger PE brethren have abandoned the space.  Performance related issues are good reasons to (temporarily) leave. ESG is not a good reason to seemingly permanently bolt, and be very vocal about it.  BR constantly placated its leftist constitutents and just learned relationships work both ways.  We flexed our muscles, I’m very happy we did so, and BR’s post-mortem commentary is hilariously butthurt obfuscation. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78730

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Posted

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/25/usa-oil-gas-production-world-record-level-energy-security/

Quote

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in January that US domestic production of crude oil for September 2023 set a new all-time high of 13,247,000 barrels per day. That fact probably deserved more notice than it received given that it was the most oil any nation on earth had ever managed to produce in a single month. The high-tech modern US oil and gas industry is completely transformed.

 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3930

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Always a good laugh going to texags …

If Trump was president we’d be pumping 5000 more barrels a day !

But the WH isn’t filling up the Strategic Reserve !

They’re lying about the numbers, deep state !

 

That was your first mistake going there. They also think they have the best QB room in the country 

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