Hey Oil Barons.......

[UT_OB1 2202]

It can only pump out about 1/4 of what we use per day. I think it’s supposed to last about 3 months full. Of course, if we’re in Spr is only source mode, most of use aren’t going to make the list of ppl important enough to get it. Most of us probably won’t make it. 

[DCA_HORN 725]

3 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

It can only pump out about 1/4 of what we use per day. I think it’s supposed to last about 3 months full. Of course, if we’re in Spr is only source mode, most of use aren’t going to make the list of ppl important enough to get it. Most of us probably won’t make it. 

Well if you don't live on the west coast you have a chance at getting it at least b

[Rex Kramer 1311]

[Rex Kramer 1311]

Oops

[DCA_HORN 725]

I thought the S stand for strategic not slush fund. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

I predict we hit $100, $125 and $150 over the next three calendar years, respectively. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

5 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Oops

They’ve been very open about the price they want to buy at

[DCA_HORN 725]

Theyve been very open about not wanting all time high gas prices heading down the stretch. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

They’ve been very open about the price they want to buy at

They don’t understand price and what they’re dealing with. They’re too naive. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

12 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:

Theyve been very open about not wanting all time high gas prices heading down the stretch. 

-said every administration ever not moved by horse and buggy

Edited April 7 by StassneyHorn

[Rex Kramer 1311]

17 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

-said every administration ever not moved by horse and buggy

Most presidents, except for the last two morons, don’t release our strategic supply, the second one in the midst of a large geographical conflict and continuing into another. 

Judging by your insincere laugh rep I suspect you believe there will be another opportunity to refill the other 85% they released as a political stunt at prices lower than they are now. That’s very naive on multiple levels. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

Since it's 50% full already, and you have said historically we haven't ever touched it for most of its existence, for what reasons should we give a shit.  Some made up war games in your head?

There will be opportunities that are a good time to fill in the future. There will be times it won't. You call it a political stunt yet it benefitted everyone who filled their car up. Don't have to be a banker to understand that.

Filling up the Reserves to whatever level you might like, will give you comfort. But its like paying a mortgage off early that has a 3.5% interest rate. Money better spent elsewhere.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

On 4/7/2024 at 1:42 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Since it's 50% full already, and you have said historically we haven't ever touched it for most of its existence, for what reasons should we give a shit.  Some made up war games in your head?

There will be opportunities that are a good time to fill in the future. There will be times it won't. You call it a political stunt yet it benefitted everyone who filled their car up. Don't have to be a banker to understand that.

Filling up the Reserves to whatever level you might like, will give you comfort. But its like paying a mortgage off early that has a 3.5% interest rate. Money better spent elsewhere.

I won’t have this discussion because you’re incapable of seeing the stupidity of what Biden did and continues to do, or you just won’t admit it. 

Edited April 8 by Rex Kramer

[StassneyHorn 6563]

Selling our oil at 95 and then buying at 75 for a profit is stupid? Thinking all of our oil production will shutdown overnight from its record output? Thinking OPEC is going to try and squeeze us intentionally cause they want a different President?

Tell me. You just wanted him to fill up as fast as he depleted which is dumb and not possible.

[YGIFS 19449]

Why did we get rid of the Royalty-in-Kind program for the SPR again?  I honestly don't remember.  It was done during the Middle East drawdown, before another surge.  But I can't remember the details.  I know it had to do with federal land leases obviously.  But it seemed like we should have kept in place because we had to know on some substantial level that we'd still be fighting two wars in the Middle East/SW Asia for several more years.  

Our current foreign war support may, on a small level, explain a bit why the Sec. of Energy is now consulting with the DoD on how/when to refill it.  Obviously there are market variables, it being a global commodity.  I'm sure there's some Qanon theory about they the Pentagon has taken such an active interest in how/when it's being replenished.  Perhaps discrete shipments to Ukraine and/or Israel?  We're sending tens of billions in weapons systems and humanitarian aid.  Maybe a few barrels of oil isn't out of the question?  

[Rex Kramer 1311]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Selling our oil at 95 and then buying at 75 for a profit is stupid? Thinking all of our oil production will shutdown overnight from its record output? Thinking OPEC is going to try and squeeze us intentionally cause they want a different President?

Tell me. You just wanted him to fill up as fast as he depleted which is dumb and not possible.

Selling so much that you can only replace 16% of it is incredibly stupid for a “Strategic” reserve. 

Our output hasn’t made any record as it’s 800,000 or so bopd overstated, and, it’s declining. 

He thinks there will be another opportunity to fill it back at a more advantageous price during his POTUS, and he’s 100% wrong. 

No idea what your point is on OPEC. 

[Dbeasy 15007]

On 4/6/2024 at 9:15 PM, Rex Kramer said:

I predict we hit $100, $125 and $150 over the next three calendar years, respectively. 

I waded into this thread because I want to understand the following about the oil/energy markets:

1. How does supply look over the next several years. Your price predictions imply constrained supply vs demand. Is that because of the shale field topping out? If so, then doesn’t everyone understand that? Are oil futures reflecting this? 

2. How will the stocks of energy companies do over the next ten years? If there is limited supply does that mean bad or good?

3. which energy companies are best positioned to survive and thrive? Seeing Buffet buy Oxy was interesting. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I waded into this thread because I want to understand the following about the oil/energy markets:

1. How does supply look over the next several years. Your price predictions imply constrained supply vs demand. Is that because of the shale field topping out? If so, then doesn’t everyone understand that? Are oil futures reflecting this? 

2. How will the stocks of energy companies do over the next ten years? If there is limited supply does that mean bad or good?

3. which energy companies are best positioned to survive and thrive? Seeing Buffet buy Oxy was interesting. 

1. Yes, and no it’s not reflected in futures. People do not understand this, and, they tremendously overestimate the potential for future decline in demand. 

2. Good question. I had this conversation the other day with a guy who holds a lot of Pioneer and doesn’t know if he’ll keep XOM. I can’t see how XOM possibly increases Permian production, but Pioneer could. 

3. Most of them. The industry isn’t going anywhere. Volumes will slowly decline domestically. We are in need of another technological breakthrough and I don’t know where it’ll come from. Probably internationally, the Gulf and Alaska. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

55 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I waded into this thread because I want to understand the following about the oil/energy markets:

1. How does supply look over the next several years. Your price predictions imply constrained supply vs demand. Is that because of the shale field topping out? If so, then doesn’t everyone understand that? Are oil futures reflecting this? 

2. How will the stocks of energy companies do over the next ten years? If there is limited supply does that mean bad or good?

3. which energy companies are best positioned to survive and thrive? Seeing Buffet buy Oxy was interesting. 

He doesn’t know dick. Look at his last guesses

[StassneyHorn 6563]

1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

Selling so much that you can only replace 16% of it is incredibly stupid for a “Strategic” reserve. 

Our output hasn’t made any record as it’s 800,000 or so bopd overstated, and, it’s declining. 

He thinks there will be another opportunity to fill it back at a more advantageous price during his POTUS, and he’s 100% wrong. 

No idea what your point is on OPEC. 

1. We’re over 50% full. Filling it all back at once or even at the pace it was drained would cause price shocks.

2. Cope. Cry. 800k+ overstated wow someone should tell somebody

3. Four more years to fill up at whatever pace they like and whatever the next guy/girl wants to do with it afterwards. 

 

[CycleTex87 2958]

2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

1. Yes, and no it’s not reflected in futures. People do not understand this, and, they tremendously overestimate the potential for future decline in demand. 

2. Good question. I had this conversation the other day with a guy who holds a lot of Pioneer and doesn’t know if he’ll keep XOM. I can’t see how XOM possibly increases Permian production, but Pioneer could. 

3. Most of them. The industry isn’t going anywhere. Volumes will slowly decline domestically. We are in need of another technological breakthrough and I don’t know where it’ll come from. Probably internationally, the Gulf and Alaska. 

I guess my question is re: #3 - How much unconventional (shale) production is there outside of North America?  That technical know how can certainly be done internationally.  Though I’m not a geologist I assume there are comparable shale beds in other prolific fields around the world.  

[billfromlaketravis 11376]

3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I waded into this thread because I want to understand the following about the oil/energy markets:

1. How does supply look over the next several years. Your price predictions imply constrained supply vs demand. Is that because of the shale field topping out? If so, then doesn’t everyone understand that? Are oil futures reflecting this? 

2. How will the stocks of energy companies do over the next ten years? If there is limited supply does that mean bad or good?

3. which energy companies are best positioned to survive and thrive? Seeing Buffet buy Oxy was interesting. 

Buffett is buying/owns so much Oxy because he has preferred stock from a $10 billion loan. 8% dividend.

If you’re looking for a consistent performer with a good dividend I’d recommend Chevron. I know a few former Texaco dickheads that can’t stop talking about how much money they’d made from the Chevron dividend. 

[tx 3 putt 76561]

4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Selling so much that you can only replace 16% of it is incredibly stupid for a “Strategic” reserve. 

Our output hasn’t made any record as it’s 800,000 or so bopd overstated, and, it’s declining. 

He thinks there will be another opportunity to fill it back at a more advantageous price during his POTUS, and he’s 100% wrong. 

No idea what your point is on OPEC. 

were you this vocal about the SPR when it dipped under $40 a few years back ?

anything under $30 should be auto buy. Congress or Senate should not be able to stop the purchase. this would be a good start 

military should have their own SPR. 100% controlled by military. Congress/Senate must auto fund. 

Edited April 9 by tx 3 putt

[DCA_HORN 725]

Spr was pretty much full and going to the max can again cause structural issues. Anything under a certain dollar level should be an auto buy. The military has their own reserve. 

[Hook1997 5331]

Anyone looking for a landman?  My broker refuses to budge from post Covid day rates…. He’s a nice guy but I’ve been too nice for too long.  

[Grimas 669]

1 hour ago, CycleTex87 said:

I guess my question is re: #3 - How much unconventional (shale) production is there outside of North America?  That technical know how can certainly be done internationally.  Though I’m not a geologist I assume there are comparable shale beds in other prolific fields around the world.  

Lots possible but also banned in places like Europe.  (Some current plays active in places like Argentina.) Several big issues - need lots of water as well as infrastructure like pipelines to get product out as well as lack of equipment outside the US.  Biggest issue besides "fracking bad" politics is the land ownership.  In most countries, mineral rights are owned by the government and not the land owners.  It's one thing to have a well on your property when you are getting a mailbox check and another when someone wants to put a well in your yard and all the money goes to the government and not you...

If I recall correctly, SLB geologists estimated Algeria had the best shale play in the world but since they have so much conventional resources still to be developed, unconventionals wouldn't happen for forever.  That and the military risks there...

[tx 3 putt 76561]

 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

He doesn’t know dick. Look at his last guesses

I’d love for you to link last guesses. Please. 

11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

1. We’re over 50% full. Filling it all back at once or even at the pace it was drained would cause price shocks.

2. Cope. Cry. 800k+ overstated wow someone should tell somebody

3. Four more years to fill up at whatever pace they like and whatever the next guy/girl wants to do with it afterwards. 

 

EIA has admitted this, so yeah, they’ve already told us. 

Im not sure Biden is getting 4 more years but my point is, I doubt he has opportunities sub $95. I actually hope Biden does get 4 more years. 

8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

were you this vocal about the SPR when it dipped under $40 a few years back ?

anything under $30 should be auto buy. Congress or Senate should not be able to stop the purchase. this would be a good start 

military should have their own SPR. 100% controlled by military. Congress/Senate must auto fund. 

Yes, yes, and okay. 

[billfromlaketravis 11376]

8 hours ago, Grimas said:

Lots possible but also banned in places like Europe.  (Some current plays active in places like Argentina.) Several big issues - need lots of water as well as infrastructure like pipelines to get product out as well as lack of equipment outside the US.  Biggest issue besides "fracking bad" politics is the land ownership.  In most countries, mineral rights are owned by the government and not the land owners.  It's one thing to have a well on your property when you are getting a mailbox check and another when someone wants to put a well in your yard and all the money goes to the government and not you...

If I recall correctly, SLB geologists estimated Algeria had the best shale play in the world but since they have so much conventional resources still to be developed, unconventionals wouldn't happen for forever.  That and the military risks there...

Terrific points. The land ownership issue is a big problem even in China. 

[CycleTex87 2958]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Terrific points. The land ownership issue is a big problem even in China. 

Even in the US, the surface owner is in lots of cases not the minerals owner - horizontal severance.  The surface owners are compensated for the use, but not like the mineral owner with his royalty interests.

[Storm the Field 5274]

20 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

Even in the US, the surface owner is in lots of cases not the minerals owner - horizontal severance.  The surface owners are compensated for the use, but not like the mineral owner with his royalty interests.

This is a fascinating nugget of info to the majority of posters on this thread, composed primarily of landmen and title attorneys.

[StassneyHorn 6563]

5 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’d love for you to link last guesses. Please. 

EIA has admitted this, so yeah, they’ve already told us. 

Im not sure Biden is getting 4 more years but my point is, I doubt he has opportunities sub $95. I actually hope Biden does get 4 more years. 

Yes, yes, and okay. 

Your performance as Porterhouse has already been linked as Guest quotes. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Your performance as Porterhouse has already been linked as Guest quotes. 

lol. Nope, but nice try. 

[CycleTex87 2958]

4 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

This is a fascinating nugget of info to the majority of posters on this thread, composed primarily of landmen and title attorneys.

Sorry to waste your time. 

[billfromlaketravis 11376]

7 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

Even in the US, the surface owner is in lots of cases not the minerals owner - horizontal severance.  The surface owners are compensated for the use, but not like the mineral owner with his royalty interests.

I would tell them to play the long game. They’re going to get paid every time the company needs to dig a pipeline, install an electrical line, and build a road. A lot of companies are actively using solar to power their wells. The possibilities are endless depending on their location. It’s not a royalty check , but there’s good money in surface rights.

I’d probably say no to gathering tanks, saltwater storage, SWD injection wells, and frack pits, but everybody has a number. 

I like how the Texas GLO handles it. If the landowner owns the surface on GLO lands, they split the minerals with the state. 

Edited April 9 by billfromlaketravis

[Rex Kramer 1311]

5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

This is a fascinating nugget of info to the majority of posters on this thread, composed primarily of landmen and title attorneys.

It’s basic but I’ve seen a lot on here that suggests a lot of posters don’t know this. He asked a very good question about international shale. I didn’t know. Grimas had a very good informative response about lack of private mineral ownership abroad, and Cycle added to it. Hook Em Cycle. Fuck these haters. 

[CycleTex87 2958]

23 hours ago, Grimas said:

Lots possible but also banned in places like Europe.  (Some current plays active in places like Argentina.) Several big issues - need lots of water as well as infrastructure like pipelines to get product out as well as lack of equipment outside the US.  Biggest issue besides "fracking bad" politics is the land ownership.  In most countries, mineral rights are owned by the government and not the land owners.  It's one thing to have a well on your property when you are getting a mailbox check and another when someone wants to put a well in your yard and all the money goes to the government and not you...

If I recall correctly, SLB geologists estimated Algeria had the best shale play in the world but since they have so much conventional resources still to be developed, unconventionals wouldn't happen for forever.  That and the military risks there...

There’s a metric butt load of infrastructure and knowledgeable work force (service companies, sand haulers, chemicals, electric power distribution, etc just to name a few) required for the shale production which has all matured in the last 10-15 years in the Permian among others.  Chulas who drive Escalades and husbands work on frac crews say hola. 
 

Might be hard to replicate that in a place like Algeria or Azerbaijan or someplace.  

 

[Grimas 669]

1 hour ago, CycleTex87 said:

There’s a metric butt load of infrastructure and knowledgeable work force (service companies, sand haulers, chemicals, electric power distribution, etc just to name a few) required for the shale production which has all matured in the last 10-15 years in the Permian among others.  Chulas who drive Escalades and husbands work on frac crews say hola. 
 

Might be hard to replicate that in a place like Algeria or Azerbaijan or someplace.  

 

That was an expansion one of my points. Several companies tried unconventionals in Poland about 15 years ago and (besides the low TOC of the Devonian and Silurian shales) all the lack of infrastructure (sand, water, pipelines, fracking trucks, etc) made it uneconomic.  Maybe someday if gas is $20/MMCF but probably not in my lifetime…

As for the other comments about surface rights vs mineral rights, pretty much anything that applies in the US does not apply outside the good, ol’ USA… The government/crown owns the mineral rights and too bad if you own the surface rights - you get paid next to nothing which is one reason they protest so loudly (at least in Europe).

 

 

[Grimas 669]

And US shale plays are dying out. Barnett and Haynsville plays are in steep decline and Utica is headed that way. Looks like Balkken, EF and Permian have probably reached peak production and will probably start their decline in the next few years… All the best wells have been drilled and even with new technology, you’re spending more to get less per well…

[DCA_HORN 725]

All true. There will be a next big thing. Probably just deeper in this next phase. The one after that when people are too hot, cold, or hungry the other parts of the world will open up. 

[Grimas 669]

Yup, all about economics.  Stuff not even considered at $2/MMCF looks like a Surly 10 at $10/MMCF…

[CycleTex87 2958]

Dear God - Please let the boom last until I retire. 
 

Amen. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

9 hours ago, Grimas said:

That was an expansion one of my points. Several companies tried unconventionals in Poland about 15 years ago and (besides the low TOC of the Devonian and Silurian shales) all the lack of infrastructure (sand, water, pipelines, fracking trucks, etc) made it uneconomic.  Maybe someday if gas is $20/MMCF but probably not in my lifetime…

As for the other comments about surface rights vs mineral rights, pretty much anything that applies in the US does not apply outside the good, ol’ USA… The government/crown owns the mineral rights and too bad if you own the surface rights - you get paid next to nothing which is one reason they protest so loudly (at least in Europe).

 

 

Well Euro gas was trading at $30 not too long ago. It’s very depressed right now because of their warm winters and is still like $8. Are you sure it’s economic in Poland?  If so, I presume the Pols would be ecstatic to help fund infrastructure and maybe even neighboring states like Germany. 

9 hours ago, Grimas said:

And US shale plays are dying out. Barnett and Haynsville plays are in steep decline and Utica is headed that way. Looks like Balkken, EF and Permian have probably reached peak production and will probably start their decline in the next few years… All the best wells have been drilled and even with new technology, you’re spending more to get less per well…

Correct. The public does not realize it. I’ve been shouting it since I’ve returned and may have been doing so when I left in ‘21. 

[Grimas 669]

Sorry my analogy wasn't specific to Poland on the pricing but more the US of the 2 vs $20/MMCF but rather the point is that if the commodity prices go up considerably, there are resources out there that you wouldn't even sniff at today would be attractive at much higher prices. (Poland wells weren't close to economic when I was involved 15 years ago but at some point in the future, even a pig looks attractive when the price is high enough...)

Rex - are you Art Berman?  He's been screaming that about the shale gas (actually tight gas reservoirs) for years...  

Edited April 10 by Grimas

[Rex Kramer 1311]

1 hour ago, Grimas said:

Sorry my analogy wasn't specific to Poland on the pricing but more the US of the 2 vs $20/MMCF but rather the point is that if the commodity prices go up considerably, there are resources out there that you wouldn't even sniff at today would be attractive at much higher prices. (Poland wells weren't close to economic when I was involved 15 years ago but at some point in the future, even a pig looks attractive when the price is high enough...)

Rex - are you Art Berman?  He's been screaming that about the shale gas (actually tight gas reservoirs) for years...  

$20/MCR is REALLY fucking cheap. 

Not Art. But a lot of my thinking is shaped by Goehring & Rozencwajg. 

Anyone here attend the Dallas Fed guy talk today at Haynes Boone’s office?

[Grimas 669]

39 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

$20/MCR is REALLY fucking cheap. 

Not Art. But a lot of my thinking is shaped by Goehring & Rozencwajg. 

Anyone here attend the Dallas Fed guy talk today at Haynes Boone’s office?

Never heard of /MCR...  Natty is currently- just under $2/MMCF (million cubic feet of gas volume) and hasn't been above $10 in forever so I'm not sure if we are talking the same acronyms...  $20/MMCF would be a godsend for the industry...

[CycleTex87 2958]

Well it’s $2/MSCF.  Thousand cubic feet at standard conditions. 

[Armybrat 40759]

On 4/9/2024 at 10:34 AM, CycleTex87 said:

Even in the US, the surface owner is in lots of cases not the minerals owner - horizontal severance.  The surface owners are compensated for the use, but not like the mineral owner with his royalty interests.

The surface of my lease in North Dakota is about 50’ underwater. 
(Lake Sakakawea)

This is what it looked like a century or so ago - that’s Great Uncle Frank who built his cabin prior to WW1.

 

 

[Armybrat 40759]

14 hours ago, Grimas said:

And US shale plays are dying out. Barnett and Haynsville plays are in steep decline and Utica is headed that way. Looks like Balkken, EF and Permian have probably reached peak production and will probably start their decline in the next few years… All the best wells have been drilled and even with new technology, you’re spending more to get less per well…

Continental Resources just completed some nice producers in McKenzie County, ND.

I hope they don’t peter out too much before I shuffle off.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Technically it's $2/MMBTU