Hey Oil Barons.......

[The Royal We 3066]

1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

People say stupid shit. I get speakers for that deal now, and I think we have upgraded considerably. I got Sheffield and Double Eagle and Black Mountain and some high profile small/midcap investment bankers you’d know specializing in A&D just this year. Having said that, there is one Ghawar and I doubt it’ll ever be repeated. The Barnett comment was monumentally stupid. However, renewables have terrible energy returns on investment. All renewable streams. Terrible. There will likely be a walk back of their % of the mix. 

I found my research article. How do I upload PDFs here without taking 4 separate pics and uploading them?

The Barnett comment is pretty hilarious in retrospect. In his defense this was probably in 06 or 07 when unconventional plays were really just getting rolling. Renewables can't compete on ROI, but they do contribute significantly to the electricity supply at this time - this guy was claiming it was impossible to scale them up fast enough to ever make a dent because they were only contributing <1% at that time.

I think you can just click on "choose files" and attach a PDF to your post. It may not appear as an embedded image but will be there.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

GoRozen Adjustment Factor Discussion February 2024.pdf

[The Royal We 3066]

1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

GoRozen Adjustment Factor Discussion February 2024.pdf 346.47 kB · 5 downloads

Hmmm. So they didn't change the production calcs to start including condensate, but the EIA did make changes to their adjustment factor?

I found the original twitter thread referenced in your PDF and none of it seems nefarious or out of bounds to me, but a lot of it is admittedly over my head.

This chart from his thread shows how their adjustments have changed over time. There's a big dip in the monthly average adjustment the second half of of '22 at the same time the EIA's overall production numbers were still increasing - yea? It's a bit of a black box for me, but I don't see how you can say the EIA's daily production number is bogus because of their adjustments. What am I missing?

 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

Just now, The Royal We said:

Hmmm. So they didn't change the production calcs to start including condensate, but the EIA did make changes to their adjustment factor?

I found the original twitter thread referenced in your PDF and none of it seems nefarious or out of bounds to me, but a lot of it is admittedly over my head.

This chart from his thread shows how their adjustments have changed over time. There's a big dip in the monthly average adjustment the second half of of '22 at the same time the EIA's overall production numbers were still increasing - yea? It's a bit of a black box for me, but I don't see how you can say the EIA's daily production number is bogus because of their adjustments. What am I missing?

 

Will read later and respond. Had to post without comment. I was wrong about “condensate”. I was riffing off of memory yesterday. It’s a very complex adjustment, but it makes sense. 

[billfromlaketravis 11375]

Replies should probably be offline, but I really didn’t like how my comp conversation went yesterday. My manager, who is a friend, went through the Korn Ferry competencies with me. Highly skilled at everything.

Then we talk comp and gives me a lot of shit about how I’m within range, department is capped out, etc… I think I’ll do OK on my bonus, modest raise, but the underlying message is you’re stuck and there’s nothing you can do about it. Be happy with an easy job that pays OK. I get the 7/7 march, but no vested bonus/stock.

I’ve been a landman since 2011 and done a little bit of everything. In house since 2012. Looking for a challenge where I see some equity or an ORRI coming my way. Needs to be Houston based. 

[LurkingHorn 1060]

9 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Replies should probably be offline, but I really didn’t like how my comp conversation went yesterday. My manager, who is a friend, went through the Korn Ferry competencies with me. Highly skilled at everything.

Then we talk comp and gives me a lot of shit about how I’m within range, department is capped out, etc… I think I’ll do OK on my bonus, modest raise, but the underlying message is you’re stuck and there’s nothing you can do about it. Be happy with an easy job that pays OK. I get the 7/7 march, but no vested bonus/stock.

I’ve been a landman since 2011 and done a little bit of everything. In house since 2012. Looking for a challenge where I see some equity or an ORRI coming my way. Needs to be Houston based. 

I'm personally seeing this type of attitude from the top of our org as well. This is especially the case in DFW where all the consolidation and mergers have moved a lot of big companies out of the area. A lot of people are miserable but don't have any alternatives. Really need some small, private companies to start sprouting up when all these non-core assets start going to market. 

[Storm the Field 5274]

Totally missed that Autry Stephens died yesterday.

Quote

Autry Stephens, the billionaire founder and chairman of Endeavor Energy Resources, has died aged 86, the company disclosed on Friday, after a prolonged battle with cancer.

 

[ryskey 447]

On 8/15/2024 at 2:00 PM, The Royal We said:

Hmmm. So they didn't change the production calcs to start including condensate, but the EIA did make changes to their adjustment factor?

I found the original twitter thread referenced in your PDF and none of it seems nefarious or out of bounds to me, but a lot of it is admittedly over my head.

This chart from his thread shows how their adjustments have changed over time. There's a big dip in the monthly average adjustment the second half of of '22 at the same time the EIA's overall production numbers were still increasing - yea? It's a bit of a black box for me, but I don't see how you can say the EIA's daily production number is bogus because of their adjustments. What am I missing?

 

There's a growing trend to only report C2-C4 (ethane, propane, butane) as NGLs.  C5+ (pentanes plus, natural gasoline, naphtha, whatever you want to call it) often goes in company financials and reported as crude oil.  It is for the most part (usually fetches a price 85%+ of WTI), so this isn't some sneaky accounting trick.

What's making this very confusing is that the majors and some large independents own midstream and downstream infrastructure, so double counting of supply is very real.  

1. Oil company (or the upstream business unit of an integrated major) reports c5+ in their crude oil production.  Cool.  No rules against that, and is consistent with what the liquid actually is.

2. Midstream company (or midstream business unit of an integrated major) separates the heaviest of the c5+ at the processing plant and blends it with crude oil.  This gets sent down the crude oil pipeline instead of the Y-grade pipeline.  Cool, this is consistent with what the upstream company is doing.  But EIA's accounting of hydrocarbons often counts it again (especially if the midstream company has an incentive to do so, depends on the GPT contract), especially on these weekly EIA updates.  So now we have upstream and midstream counting the same c5+ for supply purposes.  

3.  Y-grade (mostly c2-c4, but still enough c5+ to throw balances out of whack) gets sent to the gulf coast in dedicated pipelines, individual components go through fractionation.  C5+ is then separated and blended into crude oil during downstream processing.  This also gets counted as crude supply, depending on how it's separated.  This is never balances, volatile hydrocarbons are unpredictable and change drastically with small changes in temperature.

4.  Crude oil transportation infrastructure.  The lightest ends of stabilized crude oil (this is also c5+) can still flash to vapor, then condense again with small changes in temperature.  This is often removed, especially before export.  More "crude oil" for the purposes of EIA's supply.  Here's more confusion: even heavy crude oil contains a lot of c2-c4 that gets thrown in with propane, etc for supply purposes.

It's also worth discussing the differences between the weekly EIA estimates, which are just estimates.  Best to take a 4 or 6 week rolling overage, which ends up closer to the balanced supply and disposition a few months later.

I'm still confused with all of this, and so is everyone else.  The only way to do this more precisely is track the each specific hydrocarbon chain (c2-c30+) and adjust for cracking, and that's not possible.  See that big jump in 2023? That's partly a result of the changes DeCarolis was talking about.  I have no idea how much of that 1 million bbl/d jump is a result of double-counting, but I do know there's some.

 

[ryskey 447]

Here's another way to look at it.  This is n-butane (c4) production.  It's quadrupled in the last 15 years.   

 

In reality, actual production of c5+, whatever you want to call it, has likely grown proportionally.  It's so hard to track because of where it gets separated in the supply chain.  But here's the EIA's lightest (closest to c5+) crude oil classification.  Reported supply is down.  The biggest reason is blending with heavier crudes to meet WTI spec of ~40 API.  

[Rex Kramer 1311]

Love when you post. Thank you. Not a whole lot of clarity provided though. Ha!  I know enough to know it’s confusing as hell. But you articulated the issues very well. 

[tx 3 putt 76560]

Big numbers ….

 

[Grimas 669]

Oil giant Halliburton hit by apparent cyberattack disrupting systems | CNN Business

"Host all your apps and data in the Cloud - It's safe, I promise..."

Edited August 21 by Grimas

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2911]

I exclusively work gulf coast conventional assets in south TX so I guess I’m the idiot geologist out of the loop…
 

What’s the deal with these characters Sarah Stogner/Hawk Dunlap vs. the RRC out in the Permian? Lawsuits vs. Chevron and small operators out there (Pitts Energy, Williams Oil). I grew up in Midland in the 90s but have never worked anything Permian subsurface.
Wood, btw (Sarah, not Hawk NTTAWWT)

[Dr Fear 1268]

I exclusively work gulf coast conventional assets in south TX so I guess I’m the idiot geologist out of the loop…
 
What’s the deal with these characters Sarah Stogner/Hawk Dunlap vs. the RRC out in the Permian? Lawsuits vs. Chevron and small operators out there (Pitts Energy, Williams Oil). I grew up in Midland in the 90s but have never worked anything Permian subsurface.
Wood, btw (Sarah, not Hawk NTTAWWT)

Both stories I read focus on the fact the she hates Trump over what exactly she is "going after the oil companies" over, but she is running for DA and the fun fact here is that there are only 16 practicing lawyers in Loving/Ward/Reeves

[Storm the Field 5274]

11 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

I exclusively work gulf coast conventional assets in south TX so I guess I’m the idiot geologist out of the loop…
 

What’s the deal with these characters Sarah Stogner/Hawk Dunlap vs. the RRC out in the Permian? Lawsuits vs. Chevron and small operators out there (Pitts Energy, Williams Oil). I grew up in Midland in the 90s but have never worked anything Permian subsurface.
Wood, btw (Sarah, not Hawk NTTAWWT)

From what I've gathered seeing various posts on LinkedIn, they seem to focus on improperly-plugged abandoned wells. It's their contention that RRC is slow to remediate when old plugs fail and leaks occur, especially in the case of "orphan" wells (i.e. no responsible party that is fiscally solvent can be located).

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/texas-oil-regulator-under-scrutiny-zombie-wells-gush-back-life-2024-08-14/

[Rex Kramer 1311]

On 8/24/2024 at 12:44 AM, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

I exclusively work gulf coast conventional assets in south TX so I guess I’m the idiot geologist out of the loop…
 

What’s the deal with these characters Sarah Stogner/Hawk Dunlap vs. the RRC out in the Permian? Lawsuits vs. Chevron and small operators out there (Pitts Energy, Williams Oil). I grew up in Midland in the 90s but have never worked anything Permian subsurface.
Wood, btw (Sarah, not Hawk NTTAWWT)

I want to like her but the older I get, the more I view her and people like her as attention whores. I don’t know, I could be of. Anyone seeking public office that badly runs me the wrong way. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

On 8/25/2024 at 6:21 PM, Rex Kramer said:

I want to like her but the older I get, the more I view her and people like her as attention whores. I don’t know, I could be of. Anyone seeking public office that badly runs me the wrong way. 

She’s now going off on LinkedIn on Christi Craddick. She’s a grandstander and she looks like a tranny. 

Edited August 29 by immamac
Vacation.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

Probably never been a better buying opportunity. 

[babysdaddy 2718]

I can only assume stassney isn't up yet given he hasn't talked shit about your post yet Rex.

[babysdaddy 2718]

 

 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I can only assume stassney isn't up yet given he hasn't talked shit about your post yet Rex.

I won’t read that jackass’s posts anymore and I suspect he senses that. His mom likely hasn’t woken him up yet. 

30 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

 

Yeah. It makes no sense. Gas makes sense where it is. Oil does not. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

I only read expert opinions, been burned too much by hedge artists who disappear and delete accounts.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

I just read we were 700 bcf above 5-year average in mid-March. In mid-August, that reduced to 325 bcf above, in 5 months through a shoulder season and summer, a deficit of over 2 bcfd. Which tracks with US gas production dropping 5% from year end. Nobody is talking about this. 

[Hate 20104]

37 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I only read expert opinions, been burned too much by hedge artists who disappear and delete accounts.

Wait, so you put some money on things because of what Rex said? And you’re here bitching about it? That’s on you.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

18 minutes ago, Hate said:

Wait, so you put some money on things because of what Rex said? And you’re here bitching about it? That’s on you.

Hedge artist?  This idiot continues to think I’m a trader, ignoring that I’m not and own production where it doesn’t much matter whether I’m right now or a year from now. Please don’t quote him. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

Wait, so you put some money on things because of what Rex said? And you’re here bitching about it? That’s on you.

No you fucking idiot

2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Hedge artist?  This idiot continues to think I’m a trader, ignoring that I’m not and own production where it doesn’t much matter whether I’m right now or a year from now. Please don’t quote him. 

Quit reading my posts? Another lie from the family office

Edited September 3 by StassneyHorn

[JimmyTwoTimes 79]

4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I just read we were 700 bcf above 5-year average in mid-March. In mid-August, that reduced to 325 bcf above, in 5 months through a shoulder season and summer, a deficit of over 2 bcfd. Which tracks with US gas production dropping 5% from year end. Nobody is talking about this. 

The job of the gas market is to get to 4 TCF in inventory heading into the winter. There were only 2 ways to accomplish this in 2024, neither of which required higher prices or rising (or even flat) production.

With the 4 TCF goal largely on track to be accomplished, it will be left to Mother Nature to balance the market this winter. 100+ L48 production and “normal” winter weather are pretty tough to get excited about.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

52 minutes ago, JimmyTwoTimes said:

The job of the gas market is to get to 4 TCF in inventory heading into the winter. There were only 2 ways to accomplish this in 2024, neither of which required higher prices or rising (or even flat) production.

With the 4 TCF goal largely on track to be accomplished, it will be left to Mother Nature to balance the market this winter. 100+ L48 production and “normal” winter weather are pretty tough to get excited about.

Ignore this winter. Think medium term. We have a geological problem in that all basins are in decline with exception of Permian associated gas. Permian oil is also in decline. When coupled with LNG takeaway, we’ll trend toward other major markets on nat gas, which are between $10-$13. We will also head back offshore for oil and gas, but at $150 and $10 much will become viable. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19164]

Slow down, hoss.  Maybe we should hit your first guaranteed target of $100 before proclaiming $150 is in the cards.

[Rex Kramer 1311]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Slow down, hoss.  Maybe we should hit your first guaranteed target of $100 before proclaiming $150 is in the cards.

Absent some new massive discovery or quick technological advance, that’s where we are heading. We already hit (well over) $100 in ‘22. We’ll get back there and then some. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19164]

We went over $100 in 2022 due to the initial reaction to the Ukraine war. We haven’t sniffed $100 since. 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

53 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We went over $100 in 2022 due to the initial reaction to the Ukraine war. We haven’t sniffed $100 since. 

That’s not accurate. We have moved well over $90 several times in the last year. The SPR release in mid 2022 is the reason we moved down from $100 in 3Q’22 after spending about 5 months above it. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

Several times

 

[Armybrat 40759]

So, what’s causing this sub-$70 business?

[babysdaddy 2718]

Concern over Chinese demand combined with supply growth from opec+ and non opec countries

[Rex Kramer 1311]

5 hours ago, Armybrat said:

So, what’s causing this sub-$70 business?

Idiot traders following the herd on what @babysdaddysays. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13419]

Not to get cr but one of the presidential candidates promised <$2 gasoline presumably for their entire term. Would that spook some traders?

 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not to get cr but one of the presidential candidates promised <$2 gasoline presumably for their entire term. Would that spook some traders?

 

Sure. One of many reasons I don’t want that candidate in office. He’s shown he’s willing to manipulate the fuck out of the price for political gain. He’s going to eventually, and sooner rather than later, run into geological reality and he cannot possibly keep gasoline at $2. 

[Royalfan5 2348]

They're getting after it crude and products again today. 

Edited September 10 by Royalfan5

[Storm the Field 5274]

JD says we should be producing 3 million more barrels per day and 2 or 3 times as much nat gas.

 

Edited September 12 by Storm the Field

[Dr Fear 1268]

JD says we should be producing 3 million more barrels per day and 2 or 3 times as much nat gas.
 

Flare, baby, flare!!

[Storm the Field 5274]

1 minute ago, Dr Fear said:

15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

JD says we should be producing 3 million more barrels per day and 2 or 3 times as much nat gas.
 

Flare, baby, flare!!

E&P companies need to be less concerned with "making money" or being "economically viable" and should just produce at max capacity all the time to keep prices as low as possible. I am a very serious individual.

[swraith 340]

Uh, we do not need 3x nat gas production.  

[Storm the Field 5274]

3 minutes ago, swraith said:

Uh, we do not need 3x nat gas production.  

You think $2.25 nat gas is fun, wait til you see $0.25!

[hornmpa96 2598]

 

JD is a moron who clearly doesn’t understand capitalism.

[swraith 340]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

You think $2.25 nat gas is fun, wait til you see $0.25!

We won't be satisfied until its negative tree fiddy. 

[StassneyHorn 6563]

The experts continue to be mystified

 

Biden admin buys another round of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy said the average cost of the new purchases was about $76 per barrel.

https://www.eenews.net/articles/biden-admin-buys-another-round-of-oil-for-strategic-petroleum-reserve/

[billfromlaketravis 11375]

I’m rooting for the meteor in November. Neither side understands our industry at all. The closest they’ve overcome is appointing Rex Tillerson to the wrong Cabinet post. 

[tx 3 putt 76560]

6 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

 

JD is a moron who clearly doesn’t understand capitalism.

 

he’s pandering to the idiots 

[Rex Kramer 1311]

9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

JD says we should be producing 3 million more barrels per day and 2 or 3 times as much nat gas.

 

Impossible on crude. Doable on gas with less regulatory bullshit in the northeast.  

8 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

E&P companies need to be less concerned with "making money" or being "economically viable" and should just produce at max capacity all the time to keep prices as low as possible. I am a very serious individual.

No kidding. These comments are like “banks need to step up and lend more.”  No, independent businesses need to maximize owner value, period. 

8 hours ago, swraith said:

Uh, we do not need 3x nat gas production.  

Please god no. But, I’ll reiterate my prediction and say we very much will need significantly more production and sooner rather than later. 

7 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

 

JD is a moron who clearly doesn’t understand capitalism.

He’s a politician…

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he’s pandering to the idiots 

….doing exactly this. 

Edited September 13 by Rex Kramer