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Posted
3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Industry consensus is for the largest draw ever tomorrow when reported at 9:30 AM CT tomorrow. 275 Bcf. That should provide some support. 

3.90 NG1 is a big line in the sand area for me, April settled a bit above that and maybe gets tested pre-storage release tomorrow. As you said, record storage release expected but its rear view mirror stuff. What’s important is the degree to which salt storage is able to replenish itself next few weeks, with close to all time production highs and no appreciable HDDs save for some cold over the weekend. If you are concerned with shoulder weakness, perhaps you should be, April October spread has come in quite readily and is due for a breather.

Also, bloodbath across the pond as TTF summer/winter spread has collapsed from insane backwardation to almost flat. Be careful out there.

Posted

$3.50-$6.95 thru Mar’26. The $8.63 ceiling never really seemed doable. If we are trading at $8 or $9 in Jan/Feb, I’ll be ecstatic. I don’t think that’ll happen so quickly but I also never saw August ‘22 coming. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

$3.50-$6.95 thru Mar’26. The $8.63 ceiling never really seemed doable. If we are trading at $8 or $9 in Jan/Feb, I’ll be ecstatic. I don’t think that’ll happen so quickly but I also never saw August ‘22 coming. 

I'm not a finance guy by any means so I'd appreciate a brief tutorial if you've got a second. The $3.50-$6.95 range you're quoting is a collar, correct? Basically you're protected from nat gas price dropping below $3.50, but lose out on any upside if the price breaches $6.95? Would appreciate an example in that scenario of what exactly happens to you if the price hits $2.50 vs. if price hits $8.50.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted
4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I'm not a finance guy by any means so I'd appreciate a brief tutorial if you've got a second. The $3.50-$6.95 range you're quoting is a collar, correct? Basically you're protected from nat gas price dropping below $3.50, but lose out on any upside if the price breaches $6.95? Would appreciate an example in that scenario of what exactly happens to you if the price hits $2.50 vs. if price hits $8.50.

Correct on the general premise of a collar. Gas contracts are 10,000 in volume. So if I had 1 contract hedged, and the price settles at $2.50 during my tenor, I’m paid $10,000.  If it settles at $8.50, I owe $15,500. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

Quote
 

Trump Cancels Chevron’s Venezuela License, Boosting Supply Concerns

Oil prices received a boost following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. The sudden policy reversal undoes a license granted by former President Joe Biden over two years ago. Chevron, which exports about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude—accounting for over 25% of the country’s total oil output—will now be barred from continuing these exports.

This policy change has reignited supply concerns in an already sensitive market, contributing to the unwinding of short positions established during the recent sell-off. The cancellation of the Venezuela license comes as traders assess the potential for increased demand following reports of potential purchases for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

Edited by Dutchrudder
Posted
1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

 

this is the country you invade / take over.'it wouldn't take much 

Posted
1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

 

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

Posted
5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

I think we have a house painter around here somewhere 

  • Haha 1
Posted

All the light oil the US is producing is worth a lot less if we can't blend it with heavy crude from Canada and Venezuela.  Sooo... tariff Canada's heavy crude, cancel license for Venezuelan crude.  Good strategy.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2025 at 10:32 AM, Rex Kramer said:

Correct on the general premise of a collar. Gas contracts are 10,000 in volume. So if I had 1 contract hedged, and the price settles at $2.50 during my tenor, I’m paid $10,000.  If it settles at $8.50, I owe $15,500. 

Edit to add this $ amount is the monthly settlement amount, not total. In theory if it settles $8.50 every month, I’d owe $15.5k - per month. However, if it is settling at $8.50, the reason I’d be ecstatic is because my cash flow would more than double from where it is now. 

Edited by Rex Kramer

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