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936horn

By 936horn
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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

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If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
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My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Goofyboy

Goofyboy 3434

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Question for fellow Oil Barons 
How long before renewables take over? It’s happening, just a matter of when. 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? Do you think you will finish your career in the oil and gas industry?


Renewables won’t ever totally take over. You have to be able to build and make the renewables. Also, so many products are created from oil or gas that it’s not going anywhere. There are currently mega size LNG plants being designed and built around the world that aren’t online yet.
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Goofyboy

Goofyboy 3434

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Question for fellow Oil Barons 
How long before renewables take over? It’s happening, just a matter of when. 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? Do you think you will finish your career in the oil and gas industry?


Renewables won’t ever totally take over. You have to be able to build and make the renewables. Also, so many products are created from oil or gas that it’s not going anywhere. There are currently mega size LNG plants being designed and built around the world that aren’t online yet.
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Armybrat

Armybrat 41408

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Posted (edited)

Not an oil baron, but I do have a can of WD40.

Stands to reason that only when the majority of cost-effective vehicular production is of the electric powered type for at least a decade and the hundreds of millions of internal combustion kind wear out, then we will see the desired changeover.

Edited to add, Goofy is correct... petroleum will always be a part of industry. When the natural supply runs out centuries down the road, then the synthetics will take up some of the slack (not for fuel though).

Edited by Armybrat
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

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Posted (edited)

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Oil-sector-may-be-entering-final-decade-of-growth-14931374.php

Read an article on the topic just a few days ago. Consensus among analysts is more or less that the growth rate for oil demand will slow down and begin to decline by the end of the upcoming decade, but the world will still need oil, in some form, for decades afterwards.

How quickly demand peaks and at what level will depend largely on how governments worldwide respond to global warming. The latest report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency gives a mid-range scenario — governments doing more than they are now without being extremely aggressive — in which oil demand growth slows to a crawl after 2025, but doesn’t peak until the 2030s at 106 million barrels per day or so.

Under that scenario, global fuel demand for passenger vehicles would peak before 2030, but crude demand would continue to increase from supplying long-distance freight, shipping, aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA said.

Edited by Storm the Field
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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It's really going to be interesting to see how climate change politics, energy demand, and energy supply intereact over the next 10-20 years. No one knows what will happen. What if Colorado bans fracking? What if the President does? what will that do to prices? 

Then you have the consumer. Would you rather buy energy with zero emissions or energy derived from buring fossil fuels? States like California or companies inside those states already demanding their energy companies provide energy from renwables. 

Of course, things could go sideways in a heartbeat if the Saudi's infrastructure is attacked, and people won't give a shit if their energy is made the dirty way as long as they don't have to pay $600/month in energy bills

 

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sunset87

sunset87 255

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27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It's really going to be interesting to see how climate change politics, energy demand, and energy supply intereact over the next 10-20 years. No one knows what will happen. What if Colorado bans fracking? What if the President does? what will that do to prices? 

Then you have the consumer. Would you rather buy energy with zero emissions or energy derived from buring fossil fuels? States like California or companies inside those states already demanding their energy companies provide energy from renwables. 

Of course, things could go sideways in a heartbeat if the Saudi's infrastructure is attacked, and people won't give a shit if their energy is made the dirty way as long as they don't have to pay $600/month in energy bills

 

Go to switchenergyproject.com. Scott Tinker at the BEG has done a good job of addressing a lot of this.  

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You’re talking about renewables taking over. Now you’re playing dumb. 

I’m trying to have a discussion about the future of energy, and was hoping to get everyone’s opinion on the matter. You misunderstood the conversation because you mentioned that having this discussion “now” meaning about the present is “amusing and ignorant”. Thanks for the contribution I guess. 

If you would like to contribute to the discussion about the future of energy, by all means please contribute. 

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ryskey

ryskey 449

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Posted

Capital markets and the way energy companies are structured will likely play a big part.  Oil companies should have never been able to borrow money at L+2.5% with such loose standards.  This period of austerity in the oilpatch, at least with respect to debt, is probably going to last.  No more credit facilities that allow greater than 3x debt/cash flow.  This will generally only affect the smaller guys, as the bigger E&Ps already have excellent balance sheets. Pioneer at 1x should debt finance a bunch of acquisitions as soon as sentiment improves a little bit.

Wind/solar can put a lot more debt on their assets and still be considered "healthy."  That will probably contract at some point, but 5-7x is pretty common.  One way to subsidize renewable energy would be to create a Fannie/Freddie for them.  That's a good possibility if/when another D is elected president.  Injecting a ton of liquidity will keep rates low and damp the cycles.  I'm not saying that should happen.  Just what likely will happen.

In terms of unlevered returns, oil and gas investments will almost always beat investments in renewables.  But the equity return of a solar asset with a nice PPA and 5x leverage can definitely compete with PXD at 1x.

 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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55 minutes ago, ryskey said:

Capital markets and the way energy companies are structured will likely play a big part.  Oil companies should have never been able to borrow money at L+2.5% with such loose standards.  This period of austerity in the oilpatch, at least with respect to debt, is probably going to last.  No more credit facilities that allow greater than 3x debt/cash flow.  This will generally only affect the smaller guys, as the bigger E&Ps already have excellent balance sheets. Pioneer at 1x should debt finance a bunch of acquisitions as soon as sentiment improves a little bit.

Wind/solar can put a lot more debt on their assets and still be considered "healthy."  That will probably contract at some point, but 5-7x is pretty common.  One way to subsidize renewable energy would be to create a Fannie/Freddie for them.  That's a good possibility if/when another D is elected president.  Injecting a ton of liquidity will keep rates low and damp the cycles.  I'm not saying that should happen.  Just what likely will happen.

In terms of unlevered returns, oil and gas investments will almost always beat investments in renewables.  But the equity return of a solar asset with a nice PPA and 5x leverage can definitely compete with PXD at 1x.

 

How much do you see or have you heard of how optic politics will be affecting the money side in the future? Meaning Goldman Sachs just announced it is no longer handing out loans for Arctic drilling and coal. Now Coal was already squeezed out by natural gas, and the arctic is mainly an issue for the super majors. Is this just a dress to be worn to look pretty now or do you see more of it?

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ryskey

ryskey 449

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Posted

Most of the big oil company debt is owned by big institutional investors and is termed out for several years.  Some of smaller companies rely on revolving credit facilities from commercial banks (Wells Fargo et al) to lend out people's deposits.  Those facilities are subject to a lot of market volatility though, and can grow or shrink in any given year by quite a bit.  Then there's a huge mountain of private debt/mezzanine capital to tap as well.

I don't think optics will hurt much.  Goldman holds a ton of energy company debt.  They will go where the return is.  Any amount associated with the Arctic is going to be very small.  

It doesn't take a lot to force a huge rotation of capital back into energy.  If some endowments or even Goldman exit the space, returns will grow and more capital will come to fill the void.

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J.R.

J.R. 150

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On 12/30/2019 at 12:10 PM, ryskey said:

Capital markets and the way energy companies are structured will likely play a big part.  Oil companies should have never been able to borrow money at L+2.5% with such loose standards.  This period of austerity in the oilpatch, at least with respect to debt, is probably going to last.  No more credit facilities that allow greater than 3x debt/cash flow.  This will generally only affect the smaller guys, as the bigger E&Ps already have excellent balance sheets. Pioneer at 1x should debt finance a bunch of acquisitions as soon as sentiment improves a little bit.

Wind/solar can put a lot more debt on their assets and still be considered "healthy."  That will probably contract at some point, but 5-7x is pretty common.  One way to subsidize renewable energy would be to create a Fannie/Freddie for them.  That's a good possibility if/when another D is elected president.  Injecting a ton of liquidity will keep rates low and damp the cycles.  I'm not saying that should happen.  Just what likely will happen.

In terms of unlevered returns, oil and gas investments will almost always beat investments in renewables.  But the equity return of a solar asset with a nice PPA and 5x leverage can definitely compete with PXD at 1x.

 

I am pretty active in the renewables space and I think this nails it. If this market had liquidity and assured continuance of subsidies, RINs, tax credits, etc it would take off like gangbusters. It is already running pretty hot but liquidity is the holdup. The technology will get cheaper and pretty soon it will be very common in the first world to have diesel made from cooking grease and soybean oil and all sorts of weird shit. 

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sunset87

sunset87 255

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Posted
On 12/30/2019 at 1:15 PM, Neonmoon said:

How much do you see or have you heard of how optic politics will be affecting the money side in the future? Meaning Goldman Sachs just announced it is no longer handing out loans for Arctic drilling and coal. Now Coal was already squeezed out by natural gas, and the arctic is mainly an issue for the super majors. Is this just a dress to be worn to look pretty now or do you see more of it?

What’s funny to me is that “optic politics” can influence the hydrocarbon sector all it wants and we can stand on our moral high ground about reducing our foot print here and in Europe. But, Asia is building and commissioning coal fired plants at a frenzied pace.

Why? One main reason is to meet our demands. We are essentially exporting our problems to Asia. If it makes people feel better (California) to think they are doing a great job cleaning up their air, so be it. Last I checked, there is only one atmosphere. Doesn’t really matter where emissions are coming from. We want our stuff therefore someone is going to supply it.

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tequila

tequila 321

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Yeah, Iran is going to retaliate for this one for sure. 


Interesting thing these days. At one point, the biggest question associated with this story would be “Why the fuck is one of Iran’s highest ranked Generals in Iraq, and why the fuck are the Iraqis not killing him?”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hate

Hate 20249

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, that does raise some interesting questions.  Why would someone that most likely was responsible for thousands of Iraqi deaths during the Iraq-Iran war be in Iraq?  You would think he would have more than a handful of Iraqis that would be glad to take a shot at him.  Fuck him. 

 

 

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Cajun

Cajun 11777

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Posted
1 hour ago, Hate said:

Yeah, that does raise some interesting questions.  Why would someone that most likely was responsible for thousands of Iraqi deaths during the Iraq-Iran war be in Iraq?  You would think he would have more than a handful of Iraqis that would be glad to take a shot at him.  Fuck him. 

 

 

Oh, he's fucked.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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8 hours ago, tequila said:

 


Interesting thing these days. At one point, the biggest question associated with this story would be “Why the fuck is one of Iran’s highest ranked Generals in Iraq, and why the fuck are the Iraqis not killing him?”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Hezbollahs number 2 was there also and killed alongside him

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

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Nasty reversal over the past 12 hours. WTI shot up a few bucks to $65 last night after news of the missile strikes but quickly pared the gains and have shed another $2.50 or so this morning after EIA reported a surprise build and people realized a war with Iran is probably not imminent. Looks to be dropping back below $60 soon.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78685

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2019 at 9:50 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

Anadarko just accepted Oxy's bid. I believe Chevron has 4 days to counter. 

https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Anadarko-picks-Oxy-s-bid-jilts-Chevron-13822395.php

 

layoffs hitting oxy today. they over paid for Anadarko and now heads must roll

years ago, i interviewed with Vicki Hollub. the interview before her, the manager was going over my day to day, week to week, quarter to quarter activities. asking me when i could start and we went over some hot projects id need to step into asap. he all but said the job was mine. my final interview that day was with hollub and i left that discussion thinking she was a huge cunt. had a good friend not set up the whole deal, I would have pushed back on her and told her to shove their job up her ass. i did ask her why she was 'attacking' me and if this was her standard interview schtick, in a very nice way. told HR on the way out 'thanks for the opportunity, im humbled to be considered but couldn't leave my current company'. 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1093

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5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

layoffs hitting oxy today. they over paid for Anadarko and now heads must roll

years ago, i interviewed with Vicki Hollub. the interview before her, the manager was going over my day to day, week to week, quarter to quarter activities. asking me when i could start and we went over some hot projects id need to step into asap. he all but said the job was mine. my final interview that day was with hollub and i left that discussion thinking she was a huge cunt. had a good friend not set up the whole deal, I would have pushed back on her and told her to shove their job up her ass. i did ask her why she was 'attacking' me and if this was her standard interview schtick, in a very nice way. told HR on the way out 'thanks for the opportunity, im humbled to be considered but couldn't leave my current company'. 

Curious to know more about this interview. Can you provide some examples of why she was so difficult? 
 

Sad to hear about the layoffs. How bad was it?

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78685

Posted
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36 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Curious to know more about this interview. Can you provide some examples of why she was so difficult? 
 

Sad to hear about the layoffs. How bad was it?

 

she was unprepared for the interview and ended with giving a rant about i had no right to dictate to them where i wanted to work. i reminded her i was asked my preference of locations. 

 

they offered voluntary retirement to people at the end of the year. I read the smaller field sites got slaughtered. Anadarko was yesterday, Greenway today, Midland tomorrow.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

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Posted
19 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

layoffs hitting oxy today. they over paid for Anadarko and now heads must roll 

Not terribly surprising. There are always layoffs when companies get bought and redundant roles eliminated. The new OXY/APC currently has like 16K employees. 

That said, spoke with a buddy at OXY this morning. He made the cut, but had friends get the boot. Said it's not really going over well that APC folks were offered significantly more generous severance packages to leave voluntarily over the last few months than what OXY people are receiving after getting axed. The feeling around OXY is basically "Wait, who bought who here?"

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Okie State

Okie State 3889

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Posted
Not terribly surprising. There are always layoffs when companies get bought and redundant roles eliminated. The new OXY/APC currently has like 16K employees. 
That said, spoke with a buddy at OXY this morning. He made the cut, but had friends get the boot. Said it's not really going over well that APC folks were offered significantly more generous severance packages to leave voluntarily over the last few months than what OXY people are receiving after getting axed. The feeling around OXY is basically "Wait, who bought who here?"
APC had a very nice Change of Control in place from what I've read and been told. Cheaper for Oxy to cut their own at this point.
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