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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How much hiring actually took place between mid 2016 and now? I mean rig crews, truck drivers and the like got hired like crazy in the Permian but did anyone go bonkers on office staff after the blood-letting of 2015-2017?

I doubt too much in the upstream sector, there was more focus on efficiency. But the capital restraints in 2020 forward are going to be much more severe than the 2015-2017 downturn. There were still plenty of people willing to lend back then against some very optimistic reserve reports. Those lenders are getting burned now and are not going to repeat those mistakes in the near term. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19144

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9 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

I doubt too much in the upstream sector, there was more focus on efficiency. But the capital restraints in 2020 forward are going to be much more severe than the 2015-2017 downturn. There were still plenty of people willing to lend back then against some very optimistic reserve reports. Those lenders are getting burned now and are not going to repeat those mistakes in the near term. 

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

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3 major lay offs this week - apache / oxy / valerus field solutions. bad week for o/g. ill keep saying, o/g is getting hammered. 

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Apache-2-other-Houston-oil-companies-cut-nearly-14963488.php?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR3OzZufsVNuosQWrHOnhS9PpW-nlXNJF6p_3cGzk-8VWk8Lc-n0IezVO2M

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

$125k / year to fill up trucks, wash them and keep air in the tires !!!!

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

Perhaps, but even back at $100 oil, most shale drillers never achieved free cash flow.  

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

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I know a guy that lost his job during the BHP / BP buy out. He was one of the VERY few BHP employees that BP wanted to interview, but the position was in Denver. He passed not having a true feel for the job market. It took him much longer than expected to find another job, at a huge pay cut. 

o/g economy is getting hammered 

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Nivek

Nivek 16843

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:
15 hours ago, Nivek said:
Fucking hell.   So now more people with less of a gap to compete against.   Out since 2015.  Looks like I am out permanently. 

What did you move on to?

Mr. Mom mostly.   Scared to move because of how fickle the industry is and my wife works  I would do it as a test run though.  I am still doing my part in staying current and reading more about different facets of the industry, I mostly want to get back to work.  Outside the industry it seemed that my O&G background might as well have been a prison sentence.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

Posted
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3 hours ago, Nivek said:

Mr. Mom mostly.   Scared to move because of how fickle the industry is and my wife works  I would do it as a test run though.  I am still doing my part in staying current and reading more about different facets of the industry, I mostly want to get back to work.  Outside the industry it seemed that my O&G background might as well have been a prison sentence.

 

what are you looking for ?

 

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

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On 2/2/2020 at 9:32 AM, Dbeasy said:

Does anyone know anything about Hoegh LNP Partners? Positive or negative thoughts appreciated.

I would avoid LNG all together, they are about to suffer the same fate as shale producers in the US. The world is awash with natural gas and LNG worldwide continues to grow which is dropping LNG futures rapidly. As soon as that spread collapses and the term on the contracts expire, american LNG companies are going to be sitting on 10's of billions of $s worth of worthless refineries with no product to sell (at a profit). 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

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6 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

I would avoid LNG all together, they are about to suffer the same fate as shale producers in the US. The world is awash with natural gas and LNG worldwide continues to grow which is dropping LNG futures rapidly. As soon as that spread collapses and the term on the contracts expire, american LNG companies are going to be sitting on 10's of billions of $s worth of worthless refineries with no product to sell (at a profit). 

 

same is about to happen in the ethylene market, very soon 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Having a hoot here.  I'm getting out tomorrow before Dan Patrick's lunatic fringe rolls into town.  We've put together a package between BP, a mid-size operator in Panhandle/Western Oklahoma and what I understand to be the 4th largest medical endowment in the Western Hemisphere.  They all make for strange bedfellows.  I get weird looks from everybody until we put on our matching vests. Then shit gets legit.  

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No chatter in 10 days. No NAPE talk. Gas up $0.10 today, and still below $2.00. Crude at $52 and very flat. A&D totally dead. Banks about to drop the hammer. The blood in the street we’ve been anticipating so long might finally be here. I’ve never seen things so bad in my years in the industry. Never. 

I thought NAPE was well attended given the circumstances. I felt bad for how many landmen and land brokers who I talked to who were struggling, knowing that things probably aren't going to be picking up anytime in the near future. Most people I talked with had a pretty good sense of what was going on, certainly still a handful though with the "this is just the cycle" comments thinking it will pick right back up. 

Lots of "what's next" conversations about the post-shale world where oil demand continues to grow and as an industry we have to replace 4-5MMb/d every year to keep up with decline curves. There is going to be money to be made somewhere. GOM, Alaska, conventional, efficient shale once the debt holders are wiped out? 

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sunset87

sunset87 240

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No chatter in 10 days. No NAPE talk. Gas up $0.10 today, and still below $2.00. Crude at $52 and very flat. A&D totally dead. Banks about to drop the hammer. The blood in the street we’ve been anticipating so long might finally be here. I’ve never seen things so bad in my years in the industry. Never. 

Hah! The 86' bust say's, "hold my beer".  This one may get there, but it's not there yet.

And I know you said--in your years.

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sunset87

sunset87 240

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Yeah well old timers that have been doing this since the 70s say it’s never been this bad. 

I guess it depends on your perspective.  I was around, just starting my career for the 86' one, and I'm a native Midlander.  It just about buried this town.  Bank failures, massive layoffs, company bankruptcies left and right.  It was ugly.

Like I said, it may get that bad again, but right now team shale doesn't seem to be getting the message..  Yes, it has slowed down and it needed to.  The musical chairs have finally started stopping. It's not a surprise to a lot of people.

This has been more of a technology boom and bust not price controlled like 86' and others.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76295

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’s been ugly.  I fell for it.   But there are some that will get out.   The relentless shorting of the sector can only go so long, Wall St will never let one side of a trade win relentlessly.  

It amazes me that the public perception is that o/g is doing great. Then i point out all the eagle ford offices are boarded up. 

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