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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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Dude it’s already out there. PE, large family offices, rich guys (some of our BMDs) have billions committed to companies that don’t have assets, waiting for them and sellers to come together. That is not in question. What is in question is whether they’d pull commitments if prices fall. 
Banks are fatigued much more so than in 2016-2017, which is when they were extremely fatigued after enduring 2015-2016 and the lows of $26/bbl and $1.62/mcf. Because the A&D market has worsened since then, considerably. It is nonexistent right now. And, there is a lot of bank consolidation going on. I know of several whose charge is, “before this merger/takeover, you must jettison all your underperforming energy loans, or the deal doesn’t happen.”  Its significantly worse than it was at any point of the 5.5 year downturn. Banks will take the losses. 
Im sure the hilldebrands of the world will scoop up assets on the cheap. What banks are merging besides iberia and SunTrust deals?
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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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Disclaimer: I know very little about hedge contracts.

What is the likelihood of companies committing an efficient break of a hedge contract? Some companies are hedged at $60 for millions of barrels.
There is counter party risk but it hasnt been a problem. Until now at least.
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The Ace of Aces

The Ace of Aces 5106

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

I’m just curious how Russia can also afford this price war. It seems like it will impact them as much as it will anyone else, won’t it?

They don’t care about ancillary domestic issues if they can destroy sectors in other nations. They also use a ton of slave labor to produce oil 

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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It’s totally fine but why would they do that unless their banks made them or they’re in default and their banks pulled that trigger for them?
Edit: it’s totally fine because the counterparties are Shell, BP, Cargill, or large banks. Those counterparties are fine. I’m saying they won’t unwind the trade because they stand to preserve their business keeping those trades in place and collecting large settlements. 
Until they need to pay down their bb.
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Rip76

Rip76 4912

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Posted (edited)

https://mobile.twitter.com/pickeringenergy/status/1236861642375344128

As I type, front month $WTI is trading ~$28/bbl. From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016) This time it took less than 1 trading day. Breathtaking! Energy industry, welcome back to Hell. 
Edited by Rip76
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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8 hours ago, LABEVO said:

Lulz I remember when on that other site people are debating peak oil and now we are looking at $30

Peak oil demand was going to happen sometime this decade, but the Coronavirus means we may have already passed it.

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Auto Driller

Auto Driller 2504

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If I had to choose a horse in this race I think that I may go with Russia.

US shale drillers are facing a wave of bankruptcies no matter what. There will be massive consolidation / reorganization with most private equity backed companies disappearing. The “buy and flip” model that has been popular over the past 6-8 years is over.

That leaves OPEC vs Russia. Both rely heavily on O&G revenues for government budgets with breakeven most likely higher than the current market price. The difference is that Saudi Arabia in particular needs the revenue for massive social spending and subsidies that keeps the population from uprising against the royal family. It’s no secret that KSA is the epicenter of the Salafi jihadist movement and based on MbS recent string of arrests for “treason”, it looks like plenty of powerful people in the royal family / military / intelligence groups are not happy. Russia, on the other hand, seems to be almost completely united behind Putin. They have also endured far, far worse suffering than whatever low oil prices will bring. They have a pretty good record in wars of attrition.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19144

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1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pickeringenergy/status/1236861642375344128

As I type, front month $WTI is trading ~$28/bbl. From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016) This time it took less than 1 trading day. Breathtaking! Energy industry, welcome back to Hell. 

Oil was still about $75 prior to the OPEC announcement in Nov 2014 and was $42 on Friday.  I wonder why it took longer to break $30 back then?

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bernorange

bernorange 8348

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Quote

MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russia’s Finance Ministry said on Monday that the country could weather oil prices of $25 to 30$ per barrel for between six and 10 years after prices plunged in their biggest daily rout since the 1991.

The ministry said it could tap into the country’s National Wealth Fund to ensure macroeconomic stability if low oil prices linger. As of March 1, the fund held more than $150 billion or 9.2% of Russia’s growth domestic product, the ministry said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-finmin/russia-can-weather-oil-prices-of-25-30-for-6-10-years-ministry-idUKR4N2AC00N

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Well, yeah. I don’t think that’s what Eastwood was asking though. 
The meat of my question was more along the lines of why would a company keep their end of a contract that forces them to pay twice market price. For some companies, it might be cheaper to breach then buy at spot price. But, again, I know close to nothing about that side of the business.
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Girdwood

Girdwood 118

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4 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

 


Explain....

Hilcorp has plenty of its own issues

 

What issues? Spinning off $700 million annually in organic free cash flow? 

They are in a much better position than many companies that are over levered in shale plays that will never work at sub-$40 oil.

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HoustonFrog

HoustonFrog 368

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What issues? Spinning off $700 million annually in organic free cash flow? 
They are in a much better position than many companies that are over levered in shale plays that will never work at sub-$40 oil.


Over levered like the rest. I don’t disagree they are better off than most shale shitcos
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