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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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BTW

BTW 370

Posted
Posted

Oil just dipped back below $20/BBL

My office is in a 10 story building on Wall Street in the center of downtown Midland.  This morning, construction workers are diligently building a $15 Million park across the street where the courthouse used to be.  I pulled up to the front door and parked on the curb right outside.  I haven't been able to do that on a Monday morning since I moved in here a couple of years ago.  I had to use an access card to get into the lobby.  Then again to get the elevator to go to my floor.  Whereas normally, the lobby and elevators are open during normal business hours.  When the doors to my floor opened, it was completely dark, I had to fumble around for a few minutes just to find the light switch.  Then I let myself into my office.  It's eerie being the only person on my floor at 10am on a Monday morning.

Several folks I've talked to are planning to just "sit back and wait this out."  But I don't have that luxury.  I've spent a lot of time thinking about pivoting to another industry, but seeing as this is kind of a one-horse town, it will be quite difficult to do without moving. I own a house here in Midland, that I almost certainly can't sell, so I'm feeling stuck.  I'm wearing my thinking cap out trying to find a way to benefit from this downturn and I'm running out of ideas.

Rant over.

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sunset87

sunset87 248

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t see why people on here would not view this as a magnificent buying opportunity. 

Might be at some point.  Right now we are getting cancellation notices from our oil purchasers starting May 1.  So, not sure how long that will go on, and how or if it will effect well performance when the wells are put back on production.

I think most people are just trying to strategize on how to stay a float, for who knows how long.

I'm sure there are companies that are in a position to take advantage, but many more are not.

Edited by sunset87
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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77215

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, OilChuck said:

Any engineers on here successfully transition to another industry? I'm contemplating it more and more?

I used to work mwd / directional drilling / 1999 dip / built homes / contract services for refineries, petro chem, mid stream, utilities 

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5094

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

March 30, 2020 @9:57ET, WTI @$19.99


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's "bodies in trees" bad. Ouch. Dad was a small operator in the 1980's when oil dropped from about $30/brl to single digits, wiped out everything we owned. It's a rough business, always boom or bust.

CHIEF

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Hate

Hate 20127

Posted
Posted

I’ve got a good friend in the industry that got laid off from a service and repair shop here in Houston. He’s been in the oil field all of his life. It’s all he has ever done, so I’m not sure what he’s going to be able to find. After working for a oil & gas manufacturing company for 12 years, I got to know a lot of people that have no skills outside of the oil field. This is going to be brutal for them.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, OilChuck said:

Any engineers on here successfully transition to another industry? I'm contemplating it more and more?

Not an engineer but all my peers are, and my position is typically filled by ME's.  I went from a decade in offshore construction, to 5 years of onshore heavylift/transport, which I hated.  I honestly hated going to work every single day; ~65-70 hour weeks, 50-60k miles driving every year, etc. and PM's were the only ones salaried.  Then someone came and offered 100+% more to come back to O&G, this time midstream.  I feel I am about to be fucked royally, but the way I looked at it at the time was it would take me 2 years of doing something I hated, to replace this last year, which has been pretty cool work.  They told us we are good thru Q3 but that shit changes daily, and nothing would surprise me.  So I'm in the position of finally making the type of money to enjoy life in an entirely new way, but having to save it all because I'm likely going to be out of a job soon.  And when you are not an engineer, but most of your peers are, and there's a bunch of them available, it gets...difficult.   I left my last place in great terms, but I really, really, don't want to go back there.  Then again, we do what we don't want to when it comes to keeping the family up.  Good luck to those out there that have already been RIF'd, hope you land somewhere soon. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105169

Posted
Posted

Fuck, man.  Just reading this thread makes me sick.  I'm not in the business, but I grew up in it, and so did my wife.  Houston kids, O&G dads.  They were a bit insulated -- my old man was a regulator for a long time, hit some big time with Enron, and was still with them when they crashed (but, he was a solid pipeline guy, and kept transitioning along with the assets till retirement), and my FIL was an accountant for an oil co his whole career.

Got a lot of friends directly in or connected to the business.  This is horrific, and it kills me to see it happening in real time.  You guys have my genuine sympathy.  I'm truly sorry.

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Archer

Archer 474

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

So I'm in the position of finally making the type of money to enjoy life in an entirely new way, but having to save it all 

I regularly tell my wife that we can not live the lifestyle that my income would normally allow because there is no stability in it. If I was a doctor or something that didn’t live in fear of a crash every day sure we could buy that new house or take the big trips but we should probably live like I make ⅓-½ of what I really do. We still live a great life but nowhere near what someone would expect at our AGI. 

Edited by Archer
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Archer

Archer 474

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We live off my salary, and all bonus/stock/side hustle goes to tax, life insurance, trips, etc. My goal is to grow the side hustle larger than everything else. I’m gonna do it now. 

We are fairly similar but don’t use quite my full salary. Major downer is not only O&G in the dumpster but I have a hospitality side hustle investment that could very well go tits up too with all of the SiP orders.  

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Moby Ric

Moby Ric 2058

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Fuck, man.  Just reading this thread makes me sick.  I'm not in the business, but I grew up in it, and so did my wife.  Houston kids, O&G dads.  They were a bit insulated -- my old man was a regulator for a long time, hit some big time with Enron, and was still with them when they crashed (but, he was a solid pipeline guy, and kept transitioning along with the assets till retirement), and my FIL was an accountant for an oil co his whole career.

Got a lot of friends directly in or connected to the business.  This is horrific, and it kills me to see it happening in real time.  You guys have my genuine sympathy.  I'm truly sorry.

Same here.  Sorry you guys are going through this.  I went through it back in 2008 and it was rough but I recovered, you all will too.  This too shall pass.

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17103

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What people don’t realize is it’s been happening for 5.5 years now. This is just the reckoning. The industry capitulation. I think from here we have a small u-shape recovery. But then we will persist like that for another 5 years absent another black swan or geopolitical event. 

Can you explain your thinking on these points?

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Hate

Hate 20127

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I think it’s dependent upon which pipeline they ultimately flow into. 

And no, this isn’t a price war issue. This is a “the world is shut down and we don’t need crude for anything” issue. 

Shitter’s full. 

I completely understand what you are saying saying, but isn't there a price where even Russia and SA don't want to go?  At what point do they finally cut their production?  Wouldn't it behoove them to do so as soon as possible? They can't possibly keep pumping a the rates they are for too much longer.  Hell, they will run out of places to store it before too long.

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Archer

Archer 474

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Not much right now.  Lol.   And that was more of a “that would be our shit ass  luck” type of comment.  

Our shit ass luck is gas goes to $4.00 over the summer, the public hates Trump even more because of gas prices, Biden has a medical issue and is replaced by Bernie, Bernie wins in a landslide and thinks it’s a referendum on him and the first thing he does is ban fracing and drilling on Fed land just as the industry starts to recover. That would be our luck. 
 

Not to get too CR 

Edited by Archer
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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28984

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Shitty thing... if we get to where the economy opens back up to close to normal by the end of summer, we’ll be looking at $4.00/ gasoline with all the refineries ramping down.  That’ll make things good 

Refineries can ramp up relatively quickly. There's also a good amount of product in storage that can be drawn down while things are brought online.

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BTW

BTW 370

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Posted
10 hours ago, Hate said:

I completely understand what you are saying saying, but isn't there a price where even Russia and SA don't want to go?  At what point do they finally cut their production?  Wouldn't it behoove them to do so as soon as possible? They can't possibly keep pumping a the rates they are for too much longer.  Hell, they will run out of places to store it before too long.

"Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel, according to the prospectus for last year's initial public offering of its shares."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/by-pumping-at-will-saudi-arabia-hurts-oil-investment/2020/03/15/189505da-6693-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

Granted, they can't run their kingdom at these price levels, but their cost of production is the cheapest in the world.  So if their sovereign wealth fund can prop things up while they wait out Russia, they can turn a profit at these prices and even lower.  There isn't a single US E&P making money at these prices.

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Hate

Hate 20127

Posted
Posted
"Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel, according to the prospectus for last year's initial public offering of its shares."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/by-pumping-at-will-saudi-arabia-hurts-oil-investment/2020/03/15/189505da-6693-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html
Granted, they can't run their kingdom at these price levels, but their cost of production is the cheapest in the world.  So if their sovereign wealth fund can prop things up while they wait out Russia, they can turn a profit at these prices and even lower.  There isn't a single US E&P making money at these prices.

Damn...I wonder what it is truly is for Russia. There is no way it’s that inexpensive for them.
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