Hey Oil Barons.......

[Storm the Field 5367]

1 hour ago, jeevsie said:

Meant to post this earlier:

Anecdotal, but holy crap, the traffic coming back to Houston from SA this Sunday.  Consumption is def up.

Not anecdotal:

[Storm the Field 5367]

Nice little ~$3 gain on the week. Last Monday's temper tantrum is long forgotten. Just need to keep moving in the right direction. 

[tx 3 putt 78738]

On 7/29/2021 at 11:55 AM, jeevsie said:

Meant to post this earlier:

Anecdotal, but holy crap, the traffic coming back to Houston from SA this Sunday.  Consumption is def up.

That drive is miserable 

[Updawg 2388]

Glad I am going the opposite direction. Looks brutal

[billfromlaketravis 11862]

On 7/29/2021 at 11:55 AM, jeevsie said:

Meant to post this earlier:

Anecdotal, but holy crap, the traffic coming back to Houston from SA this Sunday.  Consumption is def up.

It might have been because it was Father’s Day, but it was bumper to bumper all the way from San Antonio to Houston. After midnight. The entire drive is a construction zone now. 

[tx 3 putt 78738]

Hou to SA feels bumper to bumper most of the way. I drive back after dark and it’s much better 

[BTW 370]

If you're looking for traffic updates ... traffic in Midland has been brutal this week since everyone has come back from their summer homes and are back in the office now.  

[Hook1997 5524]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Biden Admin is trying to kill the industry. It makes me smirk, because of course it’ll backfire. 

It’s like they don’t understand that over 8% of our GDP and over 10 million jobs are in the oil and gas sector, but hey let’s make sure everyone has cheap gas prices. 

[Blotto 24044]

for fucks sake, appeals to keep gas prices low isnt unique to Biden or democrats. Presidents are politicians , they will try to appease the masses.  

and here's previous GOP president and proud Texan  "W" Bush on the subject.

Quote

Instead, Bush has repeatedly called on OPEC -- source of about a third of global oil supplies -- to boost production to tame record prices, but so far cartel members have rejected output hikes.

Bush declined to say whether he will pressure Saudi Arabia -- OPEC’s top exporter -- to boost output when he visits the kingdom next month.

“To your question on the Saudis, look, I have made the case that, you know, the high price of oil injures economies,” Bush said. “But I think we better understand that there’s not a lot of excess capacity in this world right now.”

 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bush-gasoline/bush-says-no-magic-wand-to-lower-fuel-prices-idUSN2934908020080429

Shit, when gas prices go steadily up when a dem is in office , the GOP complains about it. 

[pearlandhorn 3343]

So we need infrastructure for electric vehicle charging stations but we don’t want to expand national drilling so we’re going to ask OPEC to expand production. The political volleyball that these politicians plan is absolutely ridiculous and makes me go cross eyed.

[Hozz 1035]

If you want lower gas prices maybe don't shut down US oil and gas projects?  Also the sector was very different when Bush made those comments.  Shale boom was just getting started in his second term and was nowhere near its peak.

[Hook1997 5524]

Oh I agree, Trump did the same thing the whole time before covid when prices tanked.  Talked about US oil production on campaign trail then got in office and fought to keep prices down.  It’s what politicians do these days once oil hits a good price and gas prices go up and people bitch. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Hook1997

[Storm the Field 5367]

PR move that won't do shit. Market already shrugged it off. Up $1 on the day. Curious why they'd wait until now though, well after OPEC already announced production increases and WTI has retreated from it mid-summer highs.  

It's an easy calculus though:

Amount of voters that complain when gas gets expensive >>>>>>>>>>> Amount of voters working in O&G.

[pearlandhorn 3343]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No idea why you’re saying “for fuck’s sake” and then immediately launching into GOP comparative horseshit. They’re all wrong and I was very vocal on this very thread about Trump, who’s a moron of the highest order. 

Regardless of your bullshit point, Biden’s actions are totally different. He effectively told the world the US has given control of its energy interests to OPEC+, and then is separately trying to kill the industry. 

In short, YOU can eat a dick sir. 

This. Dependence on OPEC for filling in the gap between our domestic demand and supply is going to put the US in a hard spot. Thinking on it more, sky is the limit for WTI.

[52-80 19377]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Dude we are going higher and higher, with the slight caveat of Delta variant short-term resistance. If Biden did everything in his power to double the rig count, it wouldn’t make a shit: we’re going much higher. Instead, he’s doing the opposite of encouraging oil investment, which will of course exacerbate the speed of rising prices. 

His comments directly to OPEC were some of the most buffoonish naive comments I’ve ever seen. He’s got to know that OPEC pays him zero mind, and this is commentary for dipshit voters displeased with rising gasoline prices. Right?  Because nobody is actually dumb enough to do what he did and genuinely mean it. 

Have you met the voting public tho?

[DCA_HORN 725]

[Neonmoon 38130]

Do US producers need permission to produce more?
 

This is all theatre. 

[DCA_HORN 725]

Do US producers need permission to produce more?
 
This is all theatre. 

On public lands they do. Of course it's all theater but to do everything you can to shit on domestic production while groveling at the feet of people who stone people to death is not a good look. That's his energy policy though and probably the best for the industry right now as prices are about to skyrocket.

[sidis 10019]

talk about some fucking theatre and red meat for fucking morons…

how is the Biden administration standing in the way of production in Texas? Lol…Christ. 

[DalTxHornFan 3130]

7 minutes ago, sidis said:

talk about some fucking theatre and red meat for fucking morons…

how is the Biden administration standing in the way of production in Texas? Lol…Christ. 

IDK, maybe some reluctance to allow the development or operation of pipelines to deliver products to refineries, questions concerning IDC tax deductions, other general unfriendliness to normal tax deductions for oil producing companies, or his plan to eliminate internal combustion engines in new cars by 2030?  Any or all of that just might impact the long-range and capital-intensive business of oil production in Texas.  Christ, indeed. 

[52-80 19377]

1.  Kindly asks political nemesis not to hack certain domestic infrastructure

 

2. Kindly asks political nemesis and their associates (of which we are not a member) to increase oil production so we can get lower gasoline prices

 

some big-brained shit from our politicians, appealing to their big-brained constituents

[Neonmoon 38130]

It’s all political theatre 

Prices are going higher, that’s a good thing. US producers will produce a ton more, and make a ton of money. Then prices will level our. Same as it ever was.

[sidis 10019]

6 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

IDK, maybe some reluctance to allow the development or operation of pipelines to deliver products to refineries, questions concerning IDC tax deductions, other general unfriendliness to normal tax deductions for oil producing companies, or his plan to eliminate internal combustion engines in new cars by 2030?  Any or all of that just might impact the long-range and capital-intensive business of oil production in Texas.  Christ, indeed. 

Yeah, pipeline development in Texas has really been driven by watching what the Biden admin has been doing for the last 8 months. Capex cost deductibility and general unfriendliness, huh?  Elimination of the combustion engine?

No offense, but if you believe that those are the things that E&P is sitting around thinking about right now in evaluating lease acquisition, reserve economics, drilling plans, etc then you are the meat eater Abbott Is using in this equation. 

Neonmoon is of course, completely correct. 

[Eastwood 4394]

The way I've explained this scenario, because it happens with every president, is that it never matters what the president says about oil. Oil, whether you like it or not, is the blood of our economy. Every single aspect of our economy, and the economy of the majority of the world, depends on oil and Petroleum products. So, even if a viable alternative is introduced, it will still take a couple of decades before oil is meaningfully removed from the economy.

That isn't saying that the day will never come, that isn't saying that there are not viable alternatives already in existence, it is merely saying that whatever a president says regarding oil doesn't matter today. I will say that I have worked on renewable energy projects and every single one of those had to deal with claims that they were more harm than good. Wind ruins a beautiful horizon, kills bats and birds, and ruins the path of migratory animals. Solar takes up too much land, ruins natural beauty, and disrupts nesting grounds/migration paths. Hydro has all the same concerns. Nuclear creates nuclear waste, can have meltdowns, etc.

The day will come when oil isn't needed, but it is likely that it won't be during the duration of what remains of our careers. I've said it before, but I wouldn't want my son to be in the oil industry, and he would be a 4th generation oil worker. The end is coming, but it is not nigh.

[Eastwood 4394]

Double post.

I even knew that Tapa was trying to double post, stopped it, deleted the draft, and Tapa still did it, anyway. I keep coming back to Tapa and it keeps showing me that I should delete the app.

[sidis 10019]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Are you seriously asking that question after hearing about Biden’s announcements?  If you are, and blaming Abbott, you’re an idiot. 

which specific biden announcements have been or are factoring into e&p companies' decisions in d&c and development plans in texas over the last two years?  what political or regulatory red tape is in the way from unleashing the productivity of texas assets?  how is biden "standing in the way" of unleashing texas production?

i am drawing upon my experience with the 60-70 or so e&p, field services, and midstream companies that i am currently doing economic consulting for...and i am trying to genuinely understand beyond the vagaries that political animals like to use for theater.  be specific.

[sidis 10019]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m not going to be specific because there is absolutely nothing Biden announced yesterday that deter Texas producers’ production development. That misses the point.

huh?

the rest of that drivel was so fucking idiotic that i'm not going to waste the time.

[The Royal We 3100]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

The way I've explained this scenario, because it happens with every president, is that it never matters what the president says about oil. Oil, whether you like it or not, is the blood of our economy. Every single aspect of our economy, and the economy of the majority of the world, depends on oil and Petroleum products. So, even if a viable alternative is introduced, it will still take a couple of decades before oil is meaningfully removed from the economy.

That isn't saying that the day will never come, that isn't saying that there are not viable alternatives already in existence, it is merely saying that whatever a president says regarding oil doesn't matter today. I will say that I have worked on renewable energy projects and every single one of those had to deal with claims that they were more harm than good. Wind ruins a beautiful horizon, kills bats and birds, and ruins the path of migratory animals. Solar takes up too much land, ruins natural beauty, and disrupts nesting grounds/migration paths. Hydro has all the same concerns. Nuclear creates nuclear waste, can have meltdowns, etc.

The day will come when oil isn't needed, but it is likely that it won't be during the duration of what remains of our careers. I've said it before, but I wouldn't want my son to be in the oil industry, and he would be a 4th generation oil worker. The end is coming, but it is not nigh.

This guy gets it. 

The rest is a bunch of bloviating about stupid shit that all presidents do.  I sure wish Biden wouldn't have appealed to the KSA, they are not allies and we shouldn't be begging them to produce more.  Fuck them.  At the same time, sustained $100+/bbl pricing is not going to be good for the economy as a whole and some of our refineries need to run on their grades.  I know @Dr. Beeper has argued in the past that the positives of high oil prices to the energy industry outweigh the drag on other areas of the economy, but I don't buy that.  Even though $100/bbl is great for my clients and my side hustles, I don't think that is what is best for the country as a whole.

But I think the perceived damage to the industry that Biden's rhetoric will cause is being greatly overblown by some of y'all.  We are going higher and there isn't fuck all that the POTUS can do about that.  Supply & demand is going to supply and demand.

[sidis 10019]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Hurtful. Keep being critical of Abbott over Biden. It’s cute. 

Oh, and go fuck yourself. 

you literally agreed with the entire point i made in your post.  in the very first sentence.  then you said it missed the point.  that is an inexplicable non sequitur.

then you admit that abbott is just a grandstanding dipshit which is why biden was wrong after admitting that o&g is about to have some upside commodity pricing benefits that are driven by market dynamics and that stuff that biden is saying really has no consequential effect.

all in response to my post about abbott's pathetic, pandering to idiots tweet.

perhaps you have undiagnosed disassociative identity and you are having an argument with some sort of projection in your head.  either way, good luck with it.

[The Royal We 3100]

Agreed we are heading toward a crisis.  Maybe $100/bbl isn't the number, but it's not too much more than that where it will raise the cost of all goods considerably.  Bring on the f'n fuel surcharges again when buying anything that has to be delivered or service that requires driving.

No good answers here other than encouraging responsible production of our own resources.

[sidis 10019]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Yes, I agree with the sentiment of your post that I errantly freaked out about. Abbott did indeed post an intentionally misleading and unsolicited tweet that was intended to pander to the lowest possible common denominator.  And no, I don't know why I had such an emotional reaction to you doing so and acting offended that you would criticize Abbott for perpetuating misinformation.

Being a spoiled brat that derives all my self-worth from formerly being an SAE has made me regrettably maundering so also thanks for re-articulating my post for me.

[The Royal We 3100]

1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ll just say I want prices to go as high as possible. I’m indifferent about anything else. If I had a way to never pay taxes again, I would diligently pursue that. I’m not a guy who cares about appearing reasonable on a message board. I want prices as high as possible. I’m a greedy son of a bitch and totally unapologetic about it. 

Sure, I don't think that hot take surprises anyone that is even remotely familiar with your whole catalogue. 

There is such a thing a too high IMO.  I think we'll get there in early '22 if the Delta variant doesn't totally fuck everything up.  Then come the windfall profit taxes and other anti-free market BS that makes me crazy.

[sidis 10019]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We are just not going to agree on you either equating Abbott to Biden as mere theatrics, or popping in only to comment on Abbott and not Biden.  Perhaps you know the business, and aren’t solely an anti-Abbott troll. If so, let’s change the subject. If not, (and I type this in the most non-emotional manner possible), indeed, fuck off. 

- Phi Alpha

wait, are you actually still doing that thing where you are so embarrassed about who you are, you actually pretend we don't all know who you are?

why?

[jeevsie 3790]

Whoa. That was a lot to catch up on. I’m just going to circle back to how embarrassing that was to ask OPEC to produce more. Eleventy billion gifs are relevant here of the “shocked”, “unbelievable”, “yikes” variety. 

[52-80 19377]

11 hours ago, jeevsie said:

Whoa. That was a lot to catch up on. I’m just going to circle back to how embarrassing that was to ask OPEC to produce more. Eleventy billion gifs are relevant here of the “shocked”, “unbelievable”, “yikes” variety. 

Basically for the white house to have made that statement, either (1) they are stupid, or (2) they think their constituents are stupid, or (3) both are stupid. 
 

but there is no scenario where there is intelligence in both of those parties, for them to have pronounced something so profoundly tone-deaf.

[Storm the Field 5367]

Rig count hits 500 for the first time since April 2020. Up 256 from the all-time low set exactly 1 year ago today.

While still historically low, we're back to a level ~100 rigs above where things bottomed out during the 2016 bust.

[nineliveslost 3012]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It doesn’t matter. Rig count could be 1,000 and it wouldn’t matter. 

Regarding the bust of 2016, I think we have been in one long extended downturn for almost exactly 7 years. Yes, January of 2015, February of 2016, and March-June of 2020 were particularly low points, and there have been some bright spots within the last 7 years, it is one big down cycle. 

So its time for it to start going up?

[nineliveslost 3012]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What?  Prices or rig count. Both have been and will continue to go up. 

both...I just want things to look up for 6 to 8 more years. I know, wishful thinking 

[billfromlaketravis 11862]

Well they gave us the option to work from home, and of course my entire department opted to take it. I enjoyed going in, but here we are. 
 

I’ll be home until Halloween. 

[Storm the Field 5367]

It's NAPE week for the first time in 18 months. Looking forward to running on fumes by Friday morning.

[BTW 370]

I've never been to summer NAPE, but I imagine this one will be kinda rowdy considering how long it's been

[Storm the Field 5367]

Just now, BTW said:

I've never been to summer NAPE, but I imagine this one will be kinda rowdy considering how long it's been

Well, this is kinda spring and summer NAPE both rolled into one. 

[Grimas 674]

Looks like M&A's are kicking off...  Woodside and BHP, Oil Search and Santos... Who's next?

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2780]

BDE LLC

[Storm the Field 5367]

17 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It’s weird. I know a ton of people going but every reception has been cancelled. 

Hmmm. I'm going to a cocktail hour this evening and 2 more parties tomorrow. No cancellations yet (that I know of). What all has been nixed? 

[LonghornJones 838]

Nothing has been nixed, Rex just wasn't invited.

[Storm the Field 5367]

I like when NAPE coincides with a 3-month low in WTI price.

[52-80 19377]

Cant have been a food mood there. CL really shit the bed today. Gold steady. 

[billfromlaketravis 11862]

On 8/18/2021 at 3:47 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m not Rex - I’m serious. Haynes Boone, Gray Reed, Sidley, Bracewell all cancelled in the last week. Not sure about Opportune. I’m hosting a dinner for 12 at Pappas tonight anyway. 

The fact that all these events have been cancelled has me thinking of coming home tomorrow night on the vomit comet. 

How was it? Vic & Anthony's slammed hard last night. 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2780]

Bet he was dipping too.