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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You know exactly what it is. If you say you don’t, you’re lying, or aren’t advanced enough on the topic to have a worthwhile convo on it. Like Mo. 

Also, mind putting together your vast knowledge on a timetable for the upcoming crisis so you can come back and say I told you so to everyone on this thread?

Posted
1 hour ago, MoJames said:

Also, mind putting together your vast knowledge on a timetable for the upcoming crisis so you can come back and say I told you so to everyone on this thread?

Rex called his shot at the beginning of Covid and put his money where his mouth is. I wish I could have pulled off a similar deal.

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Posted (edited)

Glad to help 

I too laughed.  At ESG energy policy in Europe. 

Edited by Lobo
Posted
4 minutes ago, LonghornJones said:

HEY OHHHHH

You referring to the shitty start this morning?  Or tokyo later today?  RIP-Ed McMahon.  

Posted
35 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

now i understand why in commodities trading natural gas is referred to as the widowmaker.

 

Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....

2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

Posted

Last time gas was at this price was during the fall from a 5 year run of high prices. '08 tanked it and it's taken 13 years to see that price again. The subsequent oil boom kept enough residual gas flowing to keep the price suppressed. It'll be interesting to see if we get another multi-year run out of this.

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Posted
1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

 

Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....

2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

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Posted
now i understand why in commodities trading natural gas is referred to as the widowmaker.

Widow maker refers to the March / April Nat gas spread, not just trading nat gas.


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Posted
 
Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....
2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

The price is being driven by the price of TTF & JKM right now. The big guys are getting massive margin calls, but the majority of that is from TTF / JKM. As always the winter weather will determine what happens from here.


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Posted
10 hours ago, Horns99 said:


The price is being driven by the price of TTF & JKM right now. The big guys are getting massive margin calls, but the majority of that is from TTF / JKM. As always the winter weather will determine what happens from here.


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Most definitely its just surprising how much Henry is following suit.  I guess at some point its just another risk item.  It's causing crazy power plant heat rate hedging issues for sure, especially considering all early indication for the US is a milder winter.

Posted

WTI topped $80 this morning. Currently treading water in the 79.90-80.10 range.

Had dinner with some guys from a major Permian operator a few nights ago talking about how disciplined everyone has been from a capital standpoint, but it gets harder to maintain when you hit $80. Lotta trigger fingers out there starting to get itchy. 

Posted

@Dr. Beeper sort of related, my neighbor works in R&D at Albemarle.  He says most of their money has gone towards Li for batteries, not much expansion/growth on the catalyst side, and they may even sell off some (all?) next year. Kind of crazy.  It seems like some people think we are just going to stop using oil and gas products over night.l, no problem. 

Posted
On 10/14/2021 at 7:42 AM, Dr. Beeper said:

Lol. Change your entire approach to energy, like a total 180 that will have your leftist brethren angry with you. And even then you will fail. Clueless morons. 

Yup.  
 

Reap it Brandon.  Reap it.

Posted

Any recommendations for investing at this point? I had a bunch of USO stock from its plunge at the start of the pandemic, but took profits a few weeks ago. Y'all think these things are priced in at this point or do you think there's something to be gained somewhere? Thanks.

Posted

Having just signed & returned another division order for some mineral rights in the North Dakota Williston Basin, I really am rooting for this O&G run-up to continue for as long as possible. (Dancing banana gif)

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Posted
9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I know this was referenced earlier but this attitude is astounding. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.amp.html


This President is extremely weak. Honestly I don’t mind this, but we merely exchanged one buffoon for another. I cannot believe he is doing this. 

repeated the working-with-OPEC playbook yesterday

 

I'm less astonished at the stupidity of the sentiment itself, than I am at the stupidity of deciding to broadcast that sentiment. 

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Posted

Biden comments are a big meh.  They're not aimed at people (myself included) that have major positions in companies like

XOM, MPC, DEV, SLB, HAL, BKR, LPI, CPE, ET and other private O&G enterprises.  Most Americans don't have a clue what's happening in this space beyond pump prices.

You can easily find windbag comments from every administration in the last 60 years about how they're for cheap oil.  

Last Prez said he was gonna make $20 crude permanent.

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Posted (edited)
On 10/21/2021 at 8:37 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

I know this was referenced earlier but this attitude is astounding. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.amp.html


This President is extremely weak. Honestly I don’t mind this, but we merely exchanged one buffoon for another. I cannot believe he is doing this. 

Why not release oil from the stockpile? Trump was smart to fill it to capacity during the massive drop caused by the lockdown. I can only think of 2 reasons: not wanting to discourage domestic production and exploration (lol), or wanting the stockpile in case something goes south with China relations. Otherwise, when would be a better time?

Edited by KYHorn
Posted
10 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Biden comments are a big meh.  They're not aimed at people (myself included) that have major positions in companies like

XOM, MPC, DEV, SLB, HAL, BKR, LPI, CPE, ET and other private O&G enterprises.  Most Americans don't have a clue what's happening in this space beyond pump prices.

You can easily find windbag comments from every administration in the last 60 years about how they're for cheap oil.  

Last Prez said he was gonna make $20 crude permanent.

Ding Ding Ding 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Why not release oil from the stockpile? Trump was smart to fill it to capacity during the massive drop caused by the lockdown. I can only think of 2 reasons: not wanting to discourage domestic production and exploration (lol), or wanting the stockpile in case something goes south with China relations. Otherwise, when would be a better time?

Reason 3: Would be a drop in the bucket and knock WTI price down maybe a $1 or so for a week or so at best.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Reason 3: Would be a drop in the bucket and knock prices down maybe a $1 or so for a week or so at best.

So, you're saying from four to treefiddy?....

 

If you are in this space (I suspect most are who post or lurk here),  we should hope crude stays $70-80 for a while instead of $90-?.

Geo, US, and inside oil players politics/decisions will get more chaotic with oil approaching $100. 

Posted

The only thing that all of these weak ass attempts to lower oil prices do is the following: 

1) further convince opec they have us over a barrel 

2) illustrate the tightness of the market to major speculative players (trading houses, hedge funds, etc.

3) ensure that prices will continue to stay high and slowly rise further. 
 

there’s some analysis floating around by JP Morgan among others that in a month or two, Cushing will be at tank bottom levels meaning it will be effectively out of shippable crude. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

The only thing that all of these weak ass attempts to lower oil prices do is the following: 

1) further convince opec they have us over a barrel 

2) illustrate the tightness of the market to major speculative players (trading houses, hedge funds, etc.

3) ensure that prices will continue to stay high and slowly rise further. 
 

there’s some analysis floating around by JP Morgan among others that in a month or two, Cushing will be at tank bottom levels meaning it will be effectively out of shippable crude. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/u-s-oil-stockpiles-are-plunging-while-energy-crisis-drives-up-demand

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