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936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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5 minutes ago, skipmcgee said:

Some of them will be.  I'd bet all of the Permian players not named CXO, PXD, and FANG get bought. 

No doubt, makes too much sense.  

I mean, shitty ass CHK, which I admittedly have way too many shares of and have held for way too long, just struck a deal that greatly streamlines their business and immediately effects top and bottom line positively.  They'll be able to make money and pay their debts down without having to sell prime assets.  That's a big deal, and one in which could result in them being a TO target within 2 years.  

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BTW

BTW 370

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There is a tsunami of private equity backed E&Ps in the Permian that are looking for an exit in the next couple of years, and the process just repeats.  Medium fish eat small fish, and big fish eat medium fish.  This will continue until all the decent acreage is consolidated into ten or so companies.

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skipmcgee

skipmcgee 304

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4 hours ago, BTW said:

There is a tsunami of private equity backed E&Ps in the Permian that are looking for an exit in the next couple of years, and the process just repeats.  Medium fish eat small fish, and big fish eat medium fish.  This will continue until all the decent acreage is consolidated into ten or so companies.

The number of sizable privates in the Permian is much smaller than it used to be.  Now corporate consolidation is beginning.

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sunset87

sunset87 253

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The new democrat governor elect in New Mexico doesn't sound too promising for oil and gas, but the new land commissioner elect there sounds down right scary for the energy sector.

POSITIONS

Garcia Richard has no previous environmental, energy or land management experience, but her antagonistic stance toward the oil and gas industry secured critical progressive endorsements from the Sierra Club, Conservation Voters of New Mexico, and “Frack Free Four Corners” group. She repeatedly voiced opposition to hydraulic fracturing on state lands on the campaign trail and opposes leasing in the Chaco Canyon area. Garcia Richard has consistently accused the oil and gas industry of “failing to pay its fair share” and pledged to increase royalty rates.

 

 

Her campaign platform mostly focused on incentivizing the expansion of the renewable energy industry and opposing the oil and gas industry. The centerpiece of her campaign was to “leverage the mandate of state land office to restore transparency and make more money for our schools, hospitals, and colleges.” She has also repeatedly promised to “end the backroom deals that allow [the oil and gas industry] to pollute our lands, waste our water, and pay less than Texas.”

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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Colorado and NM would be proper fucked if they limit production and thus tax revenue.

Gas is all front month loaded. It will revert to 2.50-2.75 by March.

Sanchez had their coo and CFO leave. I could go into a long list of reasons why they are almost a penny stock but I think them leaving says enough.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5360

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Saudi Arabia will reduce oil supply next month in response to lower demand, and more cuts could follow next year.

Speaking at a conference in Abu Dhabi, Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih said the kingdom's oil output would fall by 500,000 barrels per day in December.
 
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies could reduce supply further next year if needed, he added.
 
"The consensus among all members is that we need to do whatever it takes to balance the market," Al Falih said. "If that means trimming supply by a million [barrels per day], we will do it.
 
A senior OPEC source said the cartel and other major producers are discussing cutting production by as much as 1.2 million barrels per day. A decision could be taken at the next OPEC meeting in Vienna on December 6.
 
A cut of that magnitude would reverse a decision in June by OPEC and Russia to pump over a million barrels per day more to make up for the expected loss of Iranian exports.
Edited by Storm the Field
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46976

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On 11/9/2018 at 11:50 AM, DCA_HORN said:

Colorado and NM would be proper fucked if they limit production and thus tax revenue.

Gas is all front month loaded. It will revert to 2.50-2.75 by March.

Any reason a seasonal spike in natural gas can't be faded with puts on UNG or UGAZ?  I mean, I get that it could continue to climb from here, I'm mostly wondering if there is any structural issue with pricing on those ETFs that makes a fade of the price difficult.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Any reason a seasonal spike in natural gas can't be faded with puts on UNG or UGAZ?  I mean, I get that it could continue to climb from here, I'm mostly wondering if there is any structural issue with pricing on those ETFs that makes a fade of the price difficult.

The way UGAZ is engineered makes it tough.  If you have several days in a row of violent upward movements in the underlying, that volatility premium gets accretive in the tracking.  Plus they don't sell puts on UGAZ, you'd have to buy DGAZ, which is likely about to reverse split if there isn't some sort of pullback in the next few days.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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14 minutes ago, 936horn said:

This screams of a fund somewhere that was long crude and short gas and got blown up

Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/short gas.  Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up 7% around 4.40.  

 

Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though.  Ouch.  The Widowmaker strikes again.  

Edited by Trey3216
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936horn

936horn 942

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2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/gas.  Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up % around 4.40.  

 

Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though.  Ouch.  The Widowmaker strikes again.  

Indeed. Buncha people probably had to pack all their shit up today/yesterday

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Horns99

Horns99 172

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Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/short gas.  Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up 7% around 4.40.  
 
Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though.  Ouch.  The Widowmaker strikes again.  


Exactly what has happened. Heard of 2 other Funds getting blown up from this. Serious money being made & lost the past couple of days
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

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16 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

So, DGAZ going to have an "acceleration event" today or AH today?

Would need to close down 85% to trigger.   If it did, natty would blow through 5 and possibly run to 6 with all the shorts closing out and margin calls.   Could be a very ugly/interesting few days here.   Or it could pull back and DGAZ double 

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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WTF

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-us-oil/macron-says-agreed-with-trump-to-pressure-oil-producers-idUSKCN1NJ2VA

Macron says agreed with Trump to pressure oil producers

PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that he and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to put pressure on oil producers to bring down prices.

Oil prices have risen 45 percent since Macron took office in mid 2017 and his government is facing pressure on high prices from a grassroots movement protesting recent petrol tax hikes.

“When I talked at length with Donald Trump on Saturday in Paris, we together took the decision to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and other producers to limit prices,” Macron said in an interview with TF1 TV.

“If you look at prices these last few days, oil prices are starting to fall and I hope that this fall will continue,” he added.

Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday, recovering some lost ground the previous day amid signs that OPEC and allied producers may cut output next month to boost prices.

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