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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
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swraith

swraith 349

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Natural Gas is a stomach-churning market. Its inherent volatility has always been brutal due to the way winter storage works.  The only thing crazier is the inherent volatility in the power markets (which up until very recently had virtually zero storage to accommodate demand shifts) which makes natural gas looks like a blue-chip stock.

 

Anyways, Henry Hub rallied hard in September.  Now it is falling hard.  The picture below is a daily chart for January delivery Henry Hub.

 

All that said, I don't think the winter is over by any means.  The first shot of real cold in the 11-15 day forecast (or 3-week forecast) and we could get a very nice bounce in Henry Hub pricing.  But that might be a good exit point for longs because the 90-day forecasts show this winter is going to be a bust for total heating degree day counts.

 

image.thumb.png.98032b8eb628718d8e16c216c5d238c8.png

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

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fattyflattie
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My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Front month future going from 6.2 to 3.7 in something like 25 trading days is pretty stomach churning, especially going with the seasonal trend, even if weather turns out different than expected

I was tempted to take a stab at it but already have a position in CL

It’s always like this. 

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52-80

52-80 19377

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8 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

It’s always like this. 

 

looks like it does this weirdo shit every few years - 2014, 2019, and previously the 08 supereverythingcrash

743303928_ScreenShot2021-12-07at12_00_50PM.thumb.png.a042bd8e8e86d7f18d8569555c7d6d28.png

 

what surprised me more though was i expected the global prices to somewhat track or be dampened from the henry hub prices. europe is having abnormally low temperatures, so higher gas draws (and crazy ass electric prices).  suppose transport and lng bottleneck is why theres such a spread between the dutch hub and henry hub here

1962107667_ScreenShot2021-12-07at12_02_53PM.thumb.png.11cb175345de92c37a84f3ac5be2ee05.png

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

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Rig count keeps rising slightly again after plateauing the past month or so. Now up to 576 active rigs. That's a 20-month high dating back to the early days of the COVID collapse, when we went from ~670 at the beginning of April 2020 to ~400 by the end of the month.  135% increase off the low-water mark of 244 set on 8/14/20.

Pre-COVID, there were 800 active rigs back during the first week of December 2019.

For historical context, we're back up to right around November 2016 levels when things were picking back up after bottoming out at 405 on Memorial Day 2016.

 

Edited by Storm the Field
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5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Rig count keeps rising slightly again after plateauing the past month or so. Now up to 576 active rigs. That's a 20-month high dating back to the early days of the COVID collapse, when we went from ~670 at the beginning of April 2020 to ~400 by the end of the month.  135% increase off the low-water mark of 244 set on 8/14/20.

Pre-COVID, there were 800 active rigs back during the first week of December 2019.

For historical context, we're back up to right around November 2016 levels when things were picking back up after bottoming out at 405 on Memorial Day 2016.

 

The rig count could double from where it is and it won’t matter for prices. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

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On 12/10/2021 at 8:22 PM, Porterhouse said:

The rig count could double from where it is and it won’t matter for prices. 

This is Dr. Beeper's new handle, right? Nearly identical response every time I bring up the rig count assuming I'm making some commentary on price effects. 

Hint, several guys in this thread are landmen or attorneys and actually give a shit about the levels of drilling and exploration activities

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22 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

This is Dr. Beeper's new handle, right? Nearly identical response every time I bring up the rig count assuming I'm making some commentary on price effects. 

Hint, several guys in this thread are landmen or attorneys and actually give a shit about the levels of drilling and exploration activities

Yes (short boring story). And yes I know it’s identical. I read your posts as if rig counts understandably increasing will have any bearing on lowering prices, particularly oil. It’s like it’s a cautionary tale. Maybe I misread your intent. 

Hint, those landmen and attorneys should be happy that that increased activity will not cause prices to go down. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

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How's that for an about face:

Quote

 

President Joe Biden's administration is offering its strongest public support yet for domestic oil producers to boost output and drill on existing leases, while definitively ruling out the possibility it will reinstate a decades-old ban on crude exports.

US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm told oil executives today the administration was not "standing in the way" of oil and gas production and supported increased output. She noted that the administration has approved drilling permits on federal land at a faster pace than the prior administration, while pursuing other policies that could bring down retail gasoline prices that in the week ending 13 December were still just 10¢/USG shy of a seven-year high.

"Consumers as you know are hurting at the pump," Granholm said at a meeting of the National Petroleum Council, a group of high-level oil executives that offer advice to the US energy secretary. "I hope you will hear me say that please, take advantage of the leases that you have, hire workers, get your rig count up."

US crude production reached 11.7mn b/d in the week ending on 3 December, the highest output levels since May 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration. But domestic production is still down from record-high levels of 13mn b/d in the months before the pandemic heavily reduced demand. US oil executives say that a demand by shareholders to prioritize profits over output growth have been the primary driver of their investment decisions, rather than policies set by the administration.

 

 

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21 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

How's that for an about face:

 

The bolded part makes me chuckle. Some politicians are self-important enough to think that private businesses move on their words or actions. 

And on rig count commentary, I’ll just keep it to “good”. 

15 hours ago, jeevsie said:

To-Do List:

*Get Raptor Quote

*Get Malibu Quote

Are Raptors considered cool?  Or even an oilfield trash delicacy?  Seems to be something my teenage son would want if he were a dork. 

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Patricio Swayze

Patricio Swayze 17058

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This is Dr. Beeper's new handle, right? Nearly identical response every time I bring up the rig count assuming I'm making some commentary on price effects. 
Hint, several guys in this thread are landmen or attorneys and actually give a shit about the levels of drilling and exploration activities

Yes.

Also, neither a land man (talk to ours daily) nor attorney. Just a lowly project planner on a $500MM fracking program. Currently only have one rig but second one should arrive in January.
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5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Gold. Easy

Yep. It’d be really interesting to take that chart back to ‘97 or ‘98, when common wisdom was gold was dead. Or the 70s, when equities were dead. I see a lot of similarities to those “investment of a lifetime” markets that people that were dead, and the existing oil and gas market. 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

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9 hours ago, ONE YARD said:

fill up your tanks. exxon refinery bayown had an explosion last night.  from what i can tell they are still trying to put it out. 

Been a pretty bad 6 months for that area there between (if I’m getting my companies correct) Gulbrandsen, lyondell, lubrizol, and now this. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19478

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On 12/23/2021 at 11:27 AM, Porterhouse said:

Yep. It’d be really interesting to take that chart back to ‘97 or ‘98, when common wisdom was gold was dead. Or the 70s, when equities were dead. I see a lot of similarities to those “investment of a lifetime” markets that people that were dead, and the existing oil and gas market. 

A guy I worked with back in 1998-99 used to play the gold miner penny stocks like the lottery.  He was buying the shittiest of the shit heaps; like millions of shares of some stupid ass gold miner that was trading at 0.000000001 per share.  Each month he would lay down a couple of hundred on a pick and just let it ride.  He may have eclipsed the 10% ownership threshold on some of them.

I lost track of that guy way before gold took off; but I wonder to this day if any of those companies held on until the recovery.  If they did he probably made out pretty good on them.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

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Back to $76, getting pretty close to fully clawing back the post-Thanksgiving skid ($78->$66). 

Pending any huge moves the next 3 trading days, looks like WTI should end 2021 somewhere ~60% higher than on the first trading day of the year. ($48->$76).

Rig count increased by 67% (351->586) from 12/31/20 to 12/23/21.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11869

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On 12/23/2021 at 4:37 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Been a pretty bad 6 months for that area there between (if I’m getting my companies correct) Gulbrandsen, lyondell, lubrizol, and now this. 

I can’t for the life of me understand why people live down there. More house and better schools are great, but not if you’re inhaling carcinogens the entire time. 

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3102

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On 12/28/2021 at 8:33 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

I can’t for the life of me understand why people live down there. More house and better schools are great, but not if you’re inhaling carcinogens the entire time. 

This.  I took the east belt around to Galveston earlier this week and there is a shitload of development going on to the north of all that heavy industrial stuff.  You couldn't pay me to live anywhere around there.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11869

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3 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

This.  I took the east belt around to Galveston earlier this week and there is a shitload of development going on to the north of all that heavy industrial stuff.  You couldn't pay me to live anywhere around there.

A close friend of mine lives in Deer Park with two infants to “be close to family”. Yeah no thanks. 

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