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Big 12 Happenings


texasstrong12

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12 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Alright, I'm bored, especially of the he said/she said debate, so I'll give it a shot so someone can rage bet me:

Tier 1: (75+% conference win record)

1 -  KU - Lost the back court, but just reloaded with talent.   Their bench could beat the bottom tier of the Big 12.  Best bet: you'll want to choke out more than half of their fan base this year.

2 - KSU - Distant two, but up here for what has already been mentioned numerous times  Team voted most likely to piss this opportunity down their leg.

 

Tier 2: (50-75% conference win record)

3 - WVU - Upperclassmen and aggressive bigs, but lost their floor general.   Best bet: I'd take the under on this more than the over.  

4 - Texas - Upperclassmen, D hungry bigs, and a great recruiting class to give experience to is the way to build.  Could be dangerous if a "take over a game" player develops  Best bet: #5 seed in the dance.

5 - ISU - Lost one guy from a very young team and brought in more talent.   Not huge so will have to rely on shooting.  Best bet: don't, at all.  Complete wildcard.  Invest in hookers and blow instead.

6 -  TCU - Kind of an unknown at the moment with how they will reload.   Have talent left and Dixon obviously can coach.  If it comes together they could jump up or, you know, not.  Best bet: They'll outplay expectations

7 - Tech - Surprised Smith stayed in the draft, which leaves a bigger hole with Evans gone too.   Bringing in talent, but up or down will depend on how well they play defense. Best bet: Will have a few high profile wins, but likely will still fall under 50% in conference

 

Tier 3: (<50%)

8/9 - Oklahoma State/Baylor - Both have numerous holes to fill with transfers and bench players.   Most starters remaining were role players, so no idea how that will play out.   Best bet: four conference wins, which includes one at home to each other and Oklahoma.  

10 - Oklahoma -

 giphy.gif

 

Agree with everything except i would put WVU in the 1st tier, along with KSU as the only viable contenders to KU's 15th. WVU is going to be deeper which is needed with their full court press. 

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16 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

This is about where I would have it, but I would probably have Iowa State much lower. I do agree they are kind of a wildcard. 

I tend to agree with the tier system outside of Iowa State. I would have them in tier 3. 

Yeah, its why I called them a wild card, I'd not bet on them nor against them.   I don't think they're going to go high, but I don't think they'll be with the bottom three.  Here's why: All they really lost was a three point shooter, but returning a future NBA guard who, as a freshman, was 5th in scoring and 6th in 3s, and another freshman wing who was 21st in scoring, 4th in rebounding and 3rd in blocks.   They fell apart when they lost their leader to injuries, who averaged 11pts/7reb/7ast prior.    That's not a bad core to add a solid recruiting class too.  

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15 minutes ago, qwertyu1234 said:

Agree with everything except i would put WVU in the 1st tier, along with KSU as the only viable contenders to KU's 15th. WVU is going to be deeper which is needed with their full court press. 

I don't hate WV being in the 1st tier and I think WV will be good. 

But losing Jevon Carter and Dexter Miles is significant. Both those guys have been integral parts of WV's style of play these past few years. If you don't have a PG like Jevon Carter that style of play doesn't really work. Who is going to be the ball handler next year for a team that likes to press/get up and down? 

WV looks good in the front court but a lot of unknowns in the back court. Carter and Miles was one of the best back courts in the country last year. 

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1 minute ago, texasstrong12 said:

I don't hate WV being in the 1st tier and I think WV will be good. 

But losing Jevon Carter and Dexter Miles is significant. Both those guys have been integral parts of WV's style of play these past few years. If you don't have a PG like Jevon Carter that style of play doesn't really work. Who is going to be the ball handler next year for a team that likes to press/get up and down? 

Yeah that's what I've been wondering too.   You need good point play to run that press.

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1 hour ago, texasstrong12 said:

Kansas is going to be really reliant on the two FR (Grimes and Dotson) being good 3 point shooters. Kansas needed a player like Cremo just as much as Texas needed. Kansas is either going to be playing a different style of basketball or there's going to be some major struggles from 3. 

I'm not saying Texas > Kansas, but I don't think Kansas has substantially better shooters than Texas will next year. 

Oh, they'll play a substantially different style, because the strength of the team will be on the interior again, which it hasn't been in the last couple of years with POY level guards and playing 4 out, 1 in.  That will also make the defense and rebounding better, so this will be a team that plays more like the way Self wants to play.

Still, you're not wrong about the shooting question marks.  Jhawk is right that the style will yield more wide open perimeter shots, because the defense will want to play KU inside out, but we have no reliable, proven jump shooting at all.  I think the most likely answer is a couple of guys figure it out enough (coupled with the style) to ensure that this is a very good team.  I'm not yet ready to get on board with Jhawk on declaring them sure fire great.  They lost too many pieces to confidently say that.

Self's track record is ridiculous, though.

 

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I went through the seasons KU has had in the high-low vs. the 4 out 1 in years.  In the seasons we've played inside out we have averaged being 134th in 3-point attempts.  During those years we have 2 finals appearances and 1 championship.  Those seasons (8 of them in the last 11 years) have what I would consider 3 outlier years.  In those 3 outliers we had 8 losses (year after losing 95% production from the championship team), 10 losses (our core was all frosh/sophs), and 9 losses (Still a young core and zero inside game outside of ellis).  If you take those years away we averaged 4.4 losses a year during that time.  We never had a better 3-point shooting rank than 46th in the nation.  What is more interesting is if you look at the some of the best 3 point shooting teams we've had, we've had a dominant inside game and haven't attempted many 3's.  In 2007 (championship year) we were 79th in attempts and 15th in percent. 2009 we were 90th in attempts and 7th in percent. Shit we made the finals in 2011-12 and we were 161st in attempts and 65th in percent.

Point being, KU has never had to rely on 3 point shooting to have good seasons.  In the last 3 years of playing the 1 in 4 out we have averaged 6 losses.  I think a lot of people here are getting caught up on how many wins it may take to only lose 4 games.  That should be 27 wins.  Well, since HCBS has gotten to KU he has averaged right at 30 wins per year.  It is pretty ridiculous and he is probably the single greatest factor in why I predict very few losses.

The biggest thing that has been lacking at KU over the last 3 years has been our defense.  We used to consistently have the depth to play very hard nose D.  In the years contemplated in this post, our average adjusted D according to kenpom was ranked 4.6 playing the high-low.  In the last 3 years of small ball our average adjusted D has ranked 24.6.

There are a lot of reasons for KU fans to be excited for the depth and interior play KU is going to have next year.  We do have questions at the arc, but the analysis shows that KU has never needed the 3 point line to win (at least during the regular season, THANKS MARIO!).  HCBS has used it masterfully over the last few years because he had to.  But he'd much rather Azibukie get 15 shots at 75% under the basket than have Devonte shoot 15 3's.  Next year he'll have the depth to have his perimeter focus on defense and not offense, and he'll have the bigs inside to dominate the paint.

Once again, my prediction is definitely aggressive, but I have never been this excited for a KU season based on what we have on the roster.  I could 100% be wrong but when you look at what self has done with similar rosters and then you look around the top10 and conference you see that no one is returning what we are even though we lost so much.  It is going to be a fun season.

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4 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Jhawk has gone from just drinking the kool-aid to being hook up to an IV and having it inserted directly into his veins.

Haha I can't say that isn't true.  But when you think where we have been for the last 3 years with no inside game and no depth.  I've spent the last few years worrying every game about that 1 injury that ends the season.  We don't have that issue this year and that is reason enough to be excited as a KU fan.  Then you add in the fact that our rebuild isn't relying on a bunch of freshmen and that could put us over the top.  Finally, the low low low expectations of last year manifesting in a final four and looking around at what other teams have and my expectations are pretty much as high as they can be for a bill self team.

Throw in that our AD got fired and I'm fucking pumped about the short term future of KU athletics in general.

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2 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Haha I can't say that isn't true.  But when you think where we have been for the last 3 years with no inside game and no depth.  I've spent the last few years worrying every game about that 1 injury that ends the season.  We don't have that issue this year and that is reason enough to be excited as a KU fan.  Then you add in the fact that our rebuild isn't relying on a bunch of freshmen and that could put us over the top.  Finally, the low low low expectations of last year manifesting in a final four and looking around at what other teams have and my expectations are pretty much as high as they can be for a bill self team.

Throw in that our AD got fired and I'm fucking pumped about the short term future of KU athletics in general.

I agree that Kansas fans should be excited about next year.  I just think you have taken it a little far at this point in predicting 2-4 losses.  As has been pointed out there is a serious lack of returning shooters.  You are also counting on every transfer/freshman to live up to their previous production at prior schools or their hype as a recruit.  While that certainly is possible it is unlikely that everyone is as good as advertised.  It's also unlikely that with that many new faces everyone meshes well and accepts their lessened role from their previous schools.  There are simply far too many new faces who have never worn a Kansas jersey to be predicting a historic season right now.

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The reason I give the transfers a lot of credit is because they have all been in the system for a year.  It isn't a new guy off the HS campus.  The 3 transfers (4 including cunliffe) have been our scout team for the last year (2 in cunliffe's situation).

We'll see.  I'll have no problem eating crow because shit happens.  But to think we are only going to lose 4 games max isn't out of the question. Bill Self has averaged that many losses a year with similar styles of play and lesser proven talent in many cases.

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Loving the prediction of Tech’s demise.

 

Beard must be some Phil Jackson, requiring multiple badasses to win anything.  Or maybe you’re right.- fool’s gold who needs every advantage. Hell, we were picked 7th by most ‘experts’ last preseason.

I think more stars emerge with Chris Beard’s tutelage. We’ll be in the Top 3 in the Big XII again.

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16 minutes ago, slorch said:

Loving the prediction of Tech’s demise.

 

Beard must be some Phil Jackson, requiring multiple badasses to win anything.  Or maybe you’re right.- fool’s gold who needs every advantage. Hell, we were picked 7th by most ‘experts’ last preseason.

I think more stars emerge with Chris Beard’s tutelage. We’ll be in the Top 3 in the Big XII again.

I hope so.  I like Beard a lot but this will be the year he really proves himself.  Not many coaches can get a team up and keep them up year over year.  Almost nothing on Tech's roster says they should be good.  If he can coach them up like I think he can they have a ceiling of 3rd.  If he got lucky and just happened to fall into 2 NBA ready guys then his floor is probably 6th.  I think with a 3rd place finish he is 2a/2b with Huggy as the second best coach in the conference and he should get those props yearly.  If he finishes 6th then maybe he is just the 3rd/4th best coach.

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21 minutes ago, slorch said:

Loving the prediction of Tech’s demise.

 

Beard must be some Phil Jackson, requiring multiple badasses to win anything.  Or maybe you’re right.- fool’s gold who needs every advantage. Hell, we were picked 7th by most ‘experts’ last preseason.

I think more stars emerge with Chris Beard’s tutelage. We’ll be in the Top 3 in the Big XII again.

Sorry, but 5 of your top contributors last year were seniors. And did Zhaire Smith go pro? Either way, you are now rebuilding in the windswept plains.

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6 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Sorry, but 5 of your top contributors last year were seniors. And did Zhaire Smith go pro? Either way, you are now rebuilding in the windswept plains.

Sometimes when you have a good coach you can rebuild quickly.  Further, the entire league is basically rebuilding.  Based on your analysis every team but KSU is going to end up no better than 8th place in the big12.

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54 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

I hope so.  I like Beard a lot but this will be the year he really proves himself.  Not many coaches can get a team up and keep them up year over year.  Almost nothing on Tech's roster says they should be good.  If he can coach them up like I think he can they have a ceiling of 3rd.  If he got lucky and just happened to fall into 2 NBA ready guys then his floor is probably 6th.  I think with a 3rd place finish he is 2a/2b with Huggy as the second best coach in the conference and he should get those props yearly.  If he finishes 6th then maybe he is just the 3rd/4th best coach.

Dare I ask your #1 coach?  Do you honestly think they switched teams, he'd beat Beard?  I get it, recruiting matters, as do past results; but Beard is the come like a mofo in both regards. 

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29 minutes ago, slorch said:

Dare I ask your #1 coach?  Do you honestly think they switched teams, he'd beat Beard?  I get it, recruiting matters, as do past results; but Beard is the come like a mofo in both regards. 

When you've won as many conference titles in a row as Self has then you are the top coach until proven otherwise.

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34 minutes ago, slorch said:

Dare I ask your #1 coach?  Do you honestly think they switched teams, he'd beat Beard?  I get it, recruiting matters, as do past results; but Beard is the come like a mofo in both regards. 

Beard is a great coach from what we have seen.  But we also haven't seen a ton.  Coaching a team of 5 stars is almost always going to be easier than coaching a team of walk ons because of the talent disparity.  But getting those 5 stars is a huge part of coaching.  Beard just hasn't shown enough to say he is more than a flash in the pan.  Mark Turgeon looked like he had the makings to be a great coach at WSU and then Aggie.  He stubbed his toe at maryland in the early years and still hasn't become that "great" coach that he was expected to be.

To answer your question directly, yes, I do think Bill Self would beat chris beard if the rosters were flipped last year.  Maybe not both games, but probably in at least 1.  Don't forget, BS took Tulsa to the elite eight.  That's no small feat.  Bill Self didn't get to kansas by managing other people's rosters and just looking like a guy who could coach a talent ridden roster.  He got to KU by finding and developing low level talent and then having some of the best defenses and offensive play calling of any coach in the NCAA.  He also won at a rate of 66% before he got to KU.  If you look at Self vs. other top tier coaches in head to head match ups since he has been at KU the only coach he has a losing record against is Izzo who is 4-2 against self.  Beard is on track but his track record is short.  Far too short to call him the best coach in the league and given Huggy's resume I would say Beard isn't ready to take the 2 spot either unless he proves something this year.  Then I'd put him up there.

I think Beard has all of the tools to be a great coach.  He has everything rooted in good defense and he allows his top players to make plays while helping his lesser players have a real impact on the offensive side of the ball.  But he has also been in the league for 2 years.  We don't know the talent he can recruit and we don't know if Evans is the next michael jordan.  I'm not saying he isn't great, I'm saying there is a lot to be seen and he will show a lot by having a competitive team this year.

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1 hour ago, Jhawk said:

Sometimes when you have a good coach you can rebuild quickly.  Further, the entire league is basically rebuilding.  Based on your analysis every team but KSU is going to end up no better than 8th place in the big12.

What analysis? All I said was that Tech is losing 5 seniors who were all significant contributors plus an underclassman going pro. That's big time losses. Yes, if you recruit well enough you can make up for it but does Tech really have the cavalry coming in to Lubbock? I doubt it.

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On 6/5/2018 at 1:15 PM, Catdaddyhorn said:

K St pretty much has everyone back. If they’re not on KU’s tier they’re a tier below it all by themselves.

maybe, but I have a gut feeling K st. captured a little magic last year.  I'm not sure they are as good as they played in conference.   

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21 hours ago, bularry1 said:

maybe, but I have a gut feeling K st. captured a little magic last year.  I'm not sure they are as good as they played in conference.   

I agree in regards to last year.  This year is different, however.  They return everyone while the rest of the conference loses a ton of quality players.  Don't discount what having upperclassmen who have played together for years and are good players in their own right can accomplish.

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On 6/6/2018 at 9:20 AM, Hurtlocker said:

6 -  TCU - Kind of an unknown at the moment with how they will reload.   Have talent left and Dixon obviously can coach.  If it comes together they could jump up or, you know, not.  Best bet: They'll outplay expectations

Losing Kenrich Williams and Vlad will definitely hurt.  Those were our two leading scorers.  Hamdy was a nice guy to rotate in at the 4/5 and will be missed as well.  Noi will probably take most of Williams minutes and he's probably a better athlete than Williams but he's got a long way to go in pure basketball sense and instincts before he can be considered equal to Williams.  Meanwhile, there really isn't anyone on the roster who can really replace Vlad offensively.  There's a JUCO center who should help with defense and rebounding but Vlad had a polished offensive game in the post and I don't see the new guy giving us that. There's a kid from NZ that sat last year and may eventually develop into a really good offensive player but I don't see him filling Vlad's shoes this season. 

Although there are lots of questions in the front court but the back court should be solid if we ever get an entire season out of Jaylen Fisher.  A three guard rotation of Fisher, Alex Robinson and Bane is pretty solid and you can probably pencil Nembhard into the 4th spot there. 

My guess is we finish around .500.  I expect big things from Fisher this season.  He should be our MVP and lead the team in scoring. 

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2 hours ago, angelos's frog said:

Losing Kenrich Williams and Vlad will definitely hurt.  Those were our two leading scorers.  Hamdy was a nice guy to rotate in at the 4/5 and will be missed as well.  Noi will probably take most of Williams minutes and he's probably a better athlete than Williams but he's got a long way to go in pure basketball sense and instincts before he can be considered equal to Williams.  Meanwhile, there really isn't anyone on the roster who can really replace Vlad offensively.  There's a JUCO center who should help with defense and rebounding but Vlad had a polished offensive game in the post and I don't see the new guy giving us that. There's a kid from NZ that sat last year and may eventually develop into a really good offensive player but I don't see him filling Vlad's shoes this season. 

Although there are lots of questions in the front court but the back court should be solid if we ever get an entire season out of Jaylen Fisher.  A three guard rotation of Fisher, Alex Robinson and Bane is pretty solid and you can probably pencil Nembhard into the 4th spot there. 

My guess is we finish around .500.  I expect big things from Fisher this season.  He should be our MVP and lead the team in scoring. 

If fisher doesn't show up this year I'm going to mark him down as a disappointment.  He gets every bit of love from the press that you can lap up and he shows good judgement and care for the ball.  But 50% of the game is showing up and he hasn't really done that given his injuries.

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21 hours ago, txhorns said:

I agree in regards to last year.  This year is different, however.  They return everyone while the rest of the conference loses a ton of quality players.  Don't discount what having upperclassmen who have played together for years and are good players in their own right can accomplish.

Oh I'm a big believer in the experience players mantra, BU's been riding that train the past few years and it's been good until last year's hickup.   

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KU has had plenty of good teams that weren’t great from BTA, and aside from last year with KU it isn’t so much the volume of threes as it is the proficiency. They take good shots and hit high percentages. They’ll be fine again this year, as always.

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On 6/6/2018 at 9:20 AM, Hurtlocker said:

Alright, I'm bored, especially of the he said/she said debate, so I'll give it a shot so someone can rage bet me:

Tier 1: (75+% conference win record)

1 -  KU - Lost the back court, but just reloaded with talent.   Their bench could beat the bottom tier of the Big 12.  Best bet: you'll want to choke out more than half of their fan base this year.

2 - KSU - Distant two, but up here for what has already been mentioned numerous times  Team voted most likely to piss this opportunity down their leg.

 

Tier 2: (50-75% conference win record)

3 - WVU - Upperclassmen and aggressive bigs, but lost their floor general.   Best bet: I'd take the under on this more than the over.  

4 - Texas - Upperclassmen, D hungry bigs, and a great recruiting class to give experience to is the way to build.  Could be dangerous if a "take over a game" player develops  Best bet: #5 seed in the dance.

5 - ISU - Lost one guy from a very young team and brought in more talent.   Not huge so will have to rely on shooting.  Best bet: don't, at all.  Complete wildcard.  Invest in hookers and blow instead.

6 -  TCU - Kind of an unknown at the moment with how they will reload.   Have talent left and Dixon obviously can coach.  If it comes together they could jump up or, you know, not.  Best bet: They'll outplay expectations

7 - Tech - Surprised Smith stayed in the draft, which leaves a bigger hole with Evans gone too.   Bringing in talent, but up or down will depend on how well they play defense. Best bet: Will have a few high profile wins, but likely will still fall under 50% in conference

 

Tier 3: (<50%)

8/9 - Oklahoma State/Baylor - Both have numerous holes to fill with transfers and bench players.   Most starters remaining were role players, so no idea how that will play out.   Best bet: four conference wins, which includes one at home to each other and Oklahoma.  

10 - Oklahoma -

 giphy.gif

 

If this isn't sucking your own dick I don't know what is.

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On 6/9/2018 at 10:58 AM, Goo Punch said:

KU has had plenty of good teams that weren’t great from BTA, and aside from last year with KU it isn’t so much the volume of threes as it is the proficiency. They take good shots and hit high percentages. They’ll be fine again this year, as always.

They'll probably be fine. They may even be great. But there's a small chance they might suck, too. Which would be awesome for a change.

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This is an unpopular opinion among West Virginia fans who turned JC into a god like figure, but I actually don’t think we’ll miss Carter and Dax as much as most people would like to think. 

I think you’ll see a different style of Press Virginia this year in that it is very much lineup based pressing. The biggest difference this season is WVU has the size to compete on a national level. If (when) Konate gets in foul trouble, it’ll no longer be a cake walk to the rim. This is probably the biggest size/skill combo Huggins has had at WVU. It’s possible at one point this season you may have Huggins pressing with 4/5 guys on the floor at 6”5 or bigger. That length and depth is something we haven’t seen yet with Press Virginia. Will definitely be interesting to see how the team meshes over the year. 

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3 minutes ago, Whitman said:

Have you seen any videos of that kid McCabe coming in?  He's supposed to be darn good.  Also, I really hated losing Teddy.  Dumbass move on his part.

Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how he works with Huggs. I never really heard why he left. I’m guessing he was so butthurt about his suspension earlier.

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21 minutes ago, Mountaineer Maniac said:

This is an unpopular opinion among West Virginia fans who turned JC into a god like figure, but I actually don’t think we’ll miss Carter and Dax as much as most people would like to think. 

I think you’ll see a different style of Press Virginia this year in that it is very much lineup based pressing. The biggest difference this season is WVU has the size to compete on a national level. If (when) Konate gets in foul trouble, it’ll no longer be a cake walk to the rim. This is probably the biggest size/skill combo Huggins has had at WVU. It’s possible at one point this season you may have Huggins pressing with 4/5 guys on the floor at 6”5 or bigger. That length and depth is something we haven’t seen yet with Press Virginia. Will definitely be interesting to see how the team meshes over the year. 

C'mon man, Carter was huge for you guys for years. And Miles was the 2nd biggest contributor last year behind Carter. You guys'll suffer some from their loss. You could still be one of the best teams in the Big12 this year, but hale-fucking-lula for the rest of us those 2 are gone.

Edited by Cameltoe
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14 hours ago, Mountaineer Maniac said:

This is an unpopular opinion among West Virginia fans who turned JC into a god like figure, but I actually don’t think we’ll miss Carter and Dax as much as most people would like to think. 

I agree with you on Dax but not Carter. That dude was a stud at both ends and was a perfect fit to Huggins style. He often talked about how soft the team was last year, and that was WITH Carter playing ~62 minutes a night. Take him off that “soft” team and Huggins murders at least 3 players.

 

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On 5/3/2018 at 9:59 PM, Goo Punch said:

 

Bill Self’s United States squad was finally tested at the U18 FIBA Americas. Thanks to one of Self's soon-to-be KU players, his team passed with flying colors.

In a tournament semifinal against Argentina, a 104-92 U.S. win, it was five-star KU guard Quentin Grimes who led the way, going off for 26 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a steal in 28 minutes of action. Grimes didn’t commit a turnover in the outing and had eight points in two assists in the fourth quarter as the U.S. withstood an offensive flurry from the Argentinians.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/16/2018 at 7:02 PM, Goo Punch said:

Bill Self’s United States squad was finally tested at the U18 FIBA Americas. Thanks to one of Self's soon-to-be KU players, his team passed with flying colors.

In a tournament semifinal against Argentina, a 104-92 U.S. win, it was five-star KU guard Quentin Grimes who led the way, going off for 26 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a steal in 28 minutes of action. Grimes didn’t commit a turnover in the outing and had eight points in two assists in the fourth quarter as the U.S. withstood an offensive flurry from the Argentinians.

SWEEEEEEET 16!!!!!!!

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22 hours ago, Dirk X West said:

Nice get by Beard.

As a Tech fan, glad to get him, but made one of the more annoying commitment videos to be sure.  Fairly elaborate. http://kevinmccullar.com/

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  • 2 weeks later...

I wish Cunliffe would have gotten a better chance at KU but you have to produce when blue chip freshmen are coming in each year.  Good luck to him.  I think a small time team is really going to like what they find in him.  He's a hell of an athlete.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys schedule the Minnesota Golden Gophers in hoops...

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