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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

LTbear

LTbear 4213

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

There is just nothing about Cruz that says "tough." I recognize we all realize that, but I can't believe Cruz and his staff are actually naive enough to think this is a good motto. Almost no politician's face screams "whiny little pussy-assed bitch" like Cruz's.

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LTbear

LTbear 4213

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes, when I think of Ted Cruz I think tough.

What Tough Texas Man wouldn't allow another man to talk shit about his wife and his father and then never say or do anything about it? Isn't that what makes a Texan a Texan, letting other men talk shit about your wife and father?

He's the most limp-dicked politician I've seen in a long time. 

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LTbear

LTbear 4213

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

That Cruz is now engaging Beto on twitter tells me he's nervous as hell, as he should be.

Lose this race and you can pretty much put a fork in his political career.

We can only hope. 

 

Although now I watch this stuff from afar, so at least I don't have to deal with Cruz directly representing me. 

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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

That Cruz is now engaging Beto on twitter tells me he's nervous as hell, as he should be.

Lose this race and you can pretty much put a fork in his political career.

This election is monumental if Beto wins. It is disgusting that all of rural Texas will vote for him for one reason: the R in front of his name. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

That Cruz is now engaging Beto on twitter tells me he's nervous as hell, as he should be.

Lose this race and you can pretty much put a fork in his political career.

Yep.  If Cruz could afford it, he would completely ignore Beto, probably avoid debating him or even acknowledging his existence.

Would be interesting to see the data from Cambridge Analytica Ted’s internal polling.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

This election is monumental if Beto wins. It is disgusting that all of rural Texas will vote for him for one reason: the R in front of his name. 

Beto's 254 county swing was brilliant as he only needs to get 10% more of the rural vote than Trump did. Trump's tariffs alone may give Beto that much.  

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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Beto's 254 county swing was brilliant as he only needs to get 10% more of the rural vote than Trump did. Trump's tariffs alone may give Beto that much.  

What? Beto ONLY needs to get 10% more of the rural vote than Trump did?  Explain please.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21095

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, LTbear said:

That's some good stuff.

Not sure if I posted this, but his answer in spanish on why El Paso is one of the safest cities in the US despite MS-13 was to a question posed (in Spanish) by a dude in an NRA hat with a bunch of opposition folks (with a flag that said Texas Freedom Front or something) and was not a softball question.  I'm sure they didn't buy his answer (and that guy kept trying to say that he was asking about San Antonio not El Paso), but he fielded 2.5 questions from them (two directly from them, one from someone else asking about what his thoughts were on gun control*, given that there are some people here concerned with that issue), told everyone to STFU and be civil when people wanted to shout them down (one guy asking about keeping AMERICAN children safe vs mexicans) and was extremely respectful throughout.  The guy with the flag afterwards walked up and handed him a card and shook his hand.  And several of them were open carrying.  I really appreciated that (Beto being open and civil with people there not in support of him).

 

*he said he is in favor of greater restrictions on assault rifles, but he doesn't want to take away your assault rifle if you're a law abiding citizen with an assault rifle, and stressed throughout that nobody is going to agree with him on every issue but we should be able to work together

Edited by Celery Man
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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I meant that Beto needs a swing of 10% of the rural vote. Trump only won by 9%, and Beto should do well enough in non-rural areas to make it close.

Trump won the entire state by 9% so Beto would need to have a 10% swing of all of Texas, not just the rural vote.  

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39066

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Trump won the entire state by 9% so Beto would need to have a 10% swing of all of Texas, not just the rural vote.  

That's assuming that everyone who voted for Trump plans on voting for Cruz and that no one abstained in 2016.

It's highly unlikely that Beto needs to sway anyone from Cruz's camp, given the shitshow that the White House and Republican Congress are putting on.  They're swaying some Beto's way already.

But this election is really about mobilizing millennials.  Something like 1/2 of them sat out 2016.  If Beto can get 3/4 of them to show up, he will win.

Edited by TexArcher
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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

tumblr_ornpioiXTJ1tlmx1vo1_1280.gif

(edit - not poking fun at anyone in particular, just thinking about what kind of swing he needs in rural Texas)

I'm not making fun of anyone either.

Here is the deal: Trump got 52.2% and Clinton got 43.2%, so yes Trump won Texas by 9%. Using those numbers for O'Rourke vs Cruz, O'Rourke would need to pic up 4.6% statewide, resulting in O'Rourke: 43.2% + 4.6% = 47.8% and Cruz: 52.2% - 4.6% = 47.6%.  All this is assuming over 4% goes to others.

When you lose by 9% you don't need to swing 10% your way to win but rather > 4.5%.

I'm done.

Edited by Texas73
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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4846

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

I'm not making fun of anyone either.

Here is the deal: Trump got 52.2% and Clinton got 43.2%, so yes Trump won Texas by 9%. Using those numbers for O'Rourke vs Cruz, O'Rourke would need to pic up 4.6% statewide, resulting in O'Rourke: 43.2% + 4.6% = 47.8% and Cruz: 52.2% - 4.6% = 47.6%.  All this is assuming over 4% goes to others.

When you lose by 9% you don't need to swing 10% your way to win but rather > 4.5%.

I'm done.

73 teaches math, remember?

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)

75% of the Texas vote is in the 26 largest counties, so a small change in the rural vote helps in only a small way. Cruz really has no upside among rural voters, so any change will be to Beto's benefit.

Here is a list of those counties showing the number of Republican votes in 2016 and 2012, the Republican percentage of the total vote in 2016 and 2012, and the percentage lost by the Republicans (except for Jefferson Co.) (and gained by the non-republican candidates). I also make some rough predictions for 2018. 

GUADALUPE    36,632    33,117    63.4    66.9    -3.5
COMAL        45,136    39,318    72.6    76.3    -3.7
ELLIS        44,941    39,574    70.6    73.1    -2.5
BRAZOS        38,738    37,209    57.6    66.5    -8.9
HAYS        33,826    31,661    46.9    53.7    -6.8
MCLENNAN    48,260    47,903    61.0    64.3    -3.2
SMITH        58,930    57,331    69.5    72.0    -2.5
JEFFERSON    42,862    43,242    48.9    48.8    0.1
CAMERON        29,472    26,099    32.0    33.9    -1.9
BELL        51,998    49,574    54.7    57.5    -2.8
LUBBOCK        65,651    63,469    66.3    69.6    -3.3
NUECES        50,766    48,966    48.6    51.0    -2.3
BRAZORIA    72,791    70,862    60.1    66.4    -6.3
GALVESTON    73,757    69,059    60.0    62.7    -2.7
HIDALGO        48,642    39,865    28.0    28.6    -0.6
WILLIAMSON    104,175    97,006    51.3    59.4    -8.1
MONTGOMERY    150,314    137,969    73.5    79.7    -6.2
EL PASO        55,512    57,150    25.9    33.1    -7.2
FORT BEND    117,291    116,126    44.8    52.9    -8.2
DENTON        170,603    157,579    57.1    64.9    -7.8
COLLIN        201,014    196,888    55.6    65.0    -9.4
TRAVIS        127,209    140,152    27.1    36.2    -9.1
BEXAR        240,333    241,617    40.8    47.0    -6.3
TARRANT        345,921    348,920    51.7    57.1    -5.4
DALLAS        262,945    295,813    34.6    41.7    -7.0
HARRIS        545,955    586,073    41.6    49.3    -7.7

2018 Senate Race
Beto (>60%) - Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron 
Beto (53-60%) - Fort Bend, Nueces, Jefferson, Hays 
Beto (50-53% - Tarrant, Williamson (Flipped to Democrats)
Cruz (50-53%) - Collin, Denton, Bell (Will Flip in 2020)
Cruz (53-60%) - Galveston, Brazoria, Mclennan, Brazos, Guadalupe
Cruz (>60%) - Montgomery, Lubbock, Smith, Ellis, Comal

Edited by RayDog
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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

I'm not making fun of anyone either.

Here is the deal: Trump got 52.2% and Clinton got 43.2%, so yes Trump won Texas by 9%. Using those numbers for O'Rourke vs Cruz, O'Rourke would need to pic up 4.6% statewide, resulting in O'Rourke: 43.2% + 4.6% = 47.8% and Cruz: 52.2% - 4.6% = 47.6%.  All this is assuming over 4% goes to others.

When you lose by 9% you don't need to swing 10% your way to win but rather > 4.5%.

I'm done.

As an expat I tend to use the UK definition.

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Texas73

Texas73 422

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

All  he has to do is keep reiterating how very much in favor of marijuana legalization he is. 

This.         There are enough Republicans who want marijuana legalization to put Beto over the top. In addition, this stance would increase the millennial vote which is already going for Beto.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21095

Posted
Posted

Beto said fuck precisely one time at the San Antonio thing last weekend and it was very well timed. Talking about not apologizing for being from the border, and all the time he spent saying “it’s not that bad” when really, it’s fucking great.

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 7009

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I think the thing at Radio is a group organizing thing - Beers for Beto, not Beers With Beto or whatever. I saw something about the organizer looking for help on Facebook.

Ah gotcha. Saw on his site that there’s a meetup there Sunday morning for canvassing. I may head over then. 

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