Cruz vs Beto

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

He did poorly in the valley in the primary. That’s an area he needs to turn out bigly.

[Bozo_Casanova 26783]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tell me if I'm wrong, but I do see a gaping hole in Beto's campaign -- genuine hispanic voter-engagement and outreach.

Indeed. Among other things Beto's campaign is in desperate need of bilingual phone bankers. 

[Ghost of LL 15674]

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Indeed. Among other things Beto's campaign is in desperate need of bilingual phone bankers. 

It's really in desperate need of someone with a fucking clue.  They're doing fuck-all to coordinate with anyone else on the ballot, and this is one of those times when it would really make sense to work with Gina Ortiz-Jones to GOTV.

[tantric superman 4668]

I'll be honest, I thought by this point in the race he was going to bid adios to the big city/white suburbia and focus on the Valley.  So I agree with most of you that he needs to pivot to those voters asap.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

 My hope is that once he feels he has enough momentum in the cities he will spend the last two or three months going hard in the valley. He knows that beating cruz will take money so he has to keep going back to the well for now.

[Brisketexan 106702]

3 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

 My hope is that once he feels he has enough momentum in the cities he will spend the last two or three months going hard in the valley. He knows that beating cruz will take money so he has to keep going back to the well for now.

There may be something to that -- his campaign funding is definitely going to come from the Central Market demographic.  But he WILL need to pivot to campaigning for votes, not dollars, at some point soon.

[Js1 87042]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

F you.  I shop at Fiesta.  I even buy the stuff the gringos won't touch. 

Shit, I got me an idea -- "Tacos for Beto!"  It's an easy outreach, can do it on a Saturday afternoon in the Fiesta parking lot.

I’ll be right there 

[RayDog 682]

28 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I'll be honest, I thought by this point in the race he was going to bid adios to the big city/white suburbia and focus on the Valley.  So I agree with most of you that he needs to pivot to those voters asap.

50% of Texas voters are in 11 counties. The next 15 largest counties have 25%.

The easiest Latino voters to reach are the ones in the large counties. There are obvious ones like Bexar and El Paso, but other large counties also have sizable Latino populations. While they are important you can't win a state election with just the small percentage of voters in the valley.

[Message Board User 12405]

Yeah I'm not sure why he's pretty much neglecting the Valley on his 30 day tour of the state in August.  I see McAllen and Brownsville town halls...and that's pretty much it.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/betoorourke/events/?ref=page_internal

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

The valley has over 1.3 million people and votes about 70% democrat. There was a pretty big jump in the total number of voters that showed up for Hillary vs obama. I think that has a lot to do with trump. He needs to work to get these people to the polls again for the midterms. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26783]

It's really in desperate need of someone with a fucking clue.  They're doing fuck-all to coordinate with anyone else on the ballot, and this is one of those times when it would really make sense to work with Gina Ortiz-Jones to GOTV.

I’ve got mixed feelings about this. While he is working at the local level with certain campaigns I agree in general that they aren’t coordinating in the traditional way. Beto’s success to this point is deeply related to his campaign going full DIY instead of leveraging the coordinating resources (if they can even be described that way) of TDP.

Want to see what a TDP coordinated campaign looks like? Lupe Valdez.

 

 

I do like Gina Ortiz-Jones a lot though.

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I’m looking for updates on the Cruz campaign.  

Is it going to be all shady Cambridge Analytica Facebook subversion again or is this lying carpetbagger going hold some fucking town halls? 

Edited July 31, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m looking for updates on the Cruz campaign.  

Is it all going to be all shady Cambridge Analytica Facebook subversion again or is this lying carpetbagger going hold some fucking town halls? 

All scare tactics to get the olds to show up from what I’ve seen.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’ve got mixed feelings about this. While he is working at the local level with certain campaigns I agree in general that they aren’t coordinating in the traditional way. Beto’s success to this point is deeply related to his campaign going full DIY instead of leveraging the coordinating resources (if they can even be described that way) of TDP.

Want to see what a TDP coordinated campaign looks like? Lupe Valdez.

 

 

I do like Gina Ortiz-Jones a lot though.

 

 

I'm not saying go through the state party.  We all know that goes nowhere.

But when locals try to coordinate with them in any way, they say "no--fuck off," to their mutual detriment.  There are good candidates in a lot of these congressional races with which Beto should be working.  And from everything I can see, he's not.

[Bozo_Casanova 26783]

I'm not saying go through the state party.  We all know that goes nowhere.
But when locals try to coordinate with them in any way, they say "no--fuck off," to their mutual detriment.  There are good candidates in a lot of these congressional races with which Beto should be working.  And from everything I can see, he's not.

Hm. That’s interesting because it’s at odds with what I’ve heard from people involved with some congressional campaigns. Obviously that could be happy talk since I’m not exactly an insider and I’m sure you’ve heard different, but I did not get the impression that O’Rourke’s campaign was rebuffing attempts at direct coordination. Quite the opposite.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Hm. That’s interesting because it’s at odds with what I’ve heard from people involved with some congressional campaigns. Obviously that could be happy talk since I’m not exactly an insider and I’m sure you’ve heard different, but I did not get the impression that O’Rourke’s campaign was rebuffing attempts at direct coordination. Quite the opposite.

My anecdotal evidence is a few months old, so maybe it's improved over the Summer.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Gil Bang 26193]

is it muledick?

[Biff Tannen 46079]

3 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

 My hope is that once he feels he has enough momentum in the cities he will spend the last two or three months going hard in the valley. He knows that beating cruz will take money so he has to keep going back to the well for now.

Just gave him another bump.

[Brisketexan 106702]

is it muledick?

If ya don’t know the difference between shoe and dick...you must dress real funny.

[RPM 26580]

21 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

is it muledick?

 

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If ya don’t know the difference between shoe and dick...you must dress real funny.

I spent 3 months in Muleshoe on a construction project. I can confirm it is indeed muledick.

[dark54555 72]

Cruz renounced his Canadian citizenship in 2014. Wasn't his fault where he was born to an American parent. 
 
http://time.com/2854513/ted-cruz-canadian-citizenship/

Thanks for proving, once again, Ted isn’t a Texan. No matter how many times he says otherwise, he wasn’t born here. And given his stance on immigrants, we should treat him with the same standard. You’re only a Texan if you’re born in Texas, and I’d be happy to send you back where you came from, Ted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Nice Guy Eddie 13713]

So the choice is between someone born in Calgary vs someone born in El Paso.  Is it too much to ask for a native Texan?

[Bruh Man 3160]

Bless his heart, Beto is working his ass off. 

 

 

 

[Gil Bang 26193]

I don't know if this mofo will win, but it's really easy to tell who wants it more. 

He's working his ass off.  Meanwhile, "Ted", the Senator from Texas, is locked in a room with the blinds drawn secretly eating poutine. 

[Biff Tannen 46079]

4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't know if this mofo will win, but it's really easy to tell who wants it more. 

He's working his ass off.  Meanwhile, "Ted", the Senator from Texas, is locked in a room with the blinds drawn secretly eating poutine DICK. 

fify

[Celery Man 21078]

4 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

is it muledick?

one of the funnier things in his town hall last night (he's livestreaming everything, yeah you're going to need to turn off notifications from Beto if that bothers you) was him talking about seeing someone wearing a Goldthwaite Eagles shirt before he'd ever visited the town and thinking it was a band.

[Celery Man 21078]

muledick

Edited August 1, 2018 by Celery Man

[RayDog 682]

7 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The valley has over 1.3 million people and votes about 70% democrat. There was a pretty big jump in the total number of voters that showed up for Hillary vs obama. I think that has a lot to do with trump. He needs to work to get these people to the polls again for the midterms. 

Yes, 190,000 voted for Hillary so perhaps 120,000 will show up in a midterm out of the nearly 3 million votes Beto needs to win.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

6 hours ago, RayDog said:

Yes, 190,000 voted for Hillary so perhaps 120,000 will show up in a midterm out of the nearly 3 million votes Beto needs to win.

How many votes will he get in muleshoe? 

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

How many votes will he get in muleshoe? 

Where else would you fit in a meeting between Lubbock and Amarillo?

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Where else would you fit in a meeting between Lubbock and Amarillo?

Kress...

[Js1 87042]

Texas Lyceum Poll (we are also getting a Quinnipiac today on the race);

Cruz 41

Beto 39

And it has Abbot up 47-31, Patrick up 39-29 and Paxton up 35-25.  So this is Cruz underperforming.

[Texas73 422]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Lyceum Poll (we are also getting a Quinnipiac today on the race);

Cruz 41

Beto 39

And it has Abbot up 47-31, Patrick up 39-29 and Paxton up 35-25.  So this is Cruz underperforming.

Link?

[Js1 87042]

4 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Link?

 

[Ghost of LL 15674]

Note that in past years, the Lyceum poll didn't use a likely voter screen.  This is the first year they've done that.  

That poll doesn't surprise me a bit.  I think there are a lot of people who are broadly satisfied with how the state is going under GOP governance, but who don't much care for Ted Cruz.

[Js1 87042]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Note that in past years, the Lyceum poll didn't use a likely voter screen.  This is the first year they've done that.  

That poll doesn't surprise me a bit.  I think there are a lot of people who are broadly satisfied with how the state is going under GOP governance, but who don't much care for Ted Cruz.

I tend to agree.

You don't get every other statewide Republican up 10-16 points and Ted sitting at +2.  Something is there.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I tend to agree.

You don't get every other statewide Republican up 10-16 points and Ted sitting at +2.  Something is there.

Yeah--there's no polling error in the world that would explain that.  That is real, honest-to-god people saying that they're voting a straight Republican ticket except in the Senate race, where they're voting for Beto.

And by the way, the lede may be that Patrick and Paxton are up 10 points in their races, but they shouldn't feel too good about their worlds right now.  They're incumbents running against unknown challengers, and more respondents say they're "undecided" than say they're going to vote for the incumbent.  That's bad.  That means there are a lot of voters who are not sold on the incumbents and who are interested in hearing from the challengers.  If Collier and Nelson can scrape together the money to do some actual campaigning, this could be an actual race.

[Message Board User 12405]

Unfortunately I think it’s more likely that the majority of undecideds stay home or hold their nose and vote Cruz.

[Ghost of LL 15674]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Unfortunately I think it’s more likely that the majority of undecideds stay home or hold their nose and vote Cruz.

Maybe.  

But I would like to see the name recognition among the undecideds.  If there are a lot of them that know who Cruz is and don't know shit about Beto, I think that's a very promising sign.  And I suspect that's the case.  Beto still suffers from a name-recognition deficit that he needs to close over the next three months.

There's also the common rule that undecideds break against the incumbent.  If the incumbent hasn't made the sale, the undecideds are disproportionately going to take their chances for the challenger about whom they generally know less.  But that's in polls closer to the election, so I don't think that rule particularly applies here.

But regardless--if you're a Cruz supporter, this is an alarming poll.  There's nothing in here that lends to obvious cries of "polling error."  You're at 41%, which is really, really low for a statewide Republican incumbent in Texas.  You're not behind, but that's about the only positive you can take away.

[Js1 87042]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Maybe.  

But I would like to see the name recognition among the undecideds.  If there are a lot of them that know who Cruz is and don't know shit about Beto, I think that's a very promising sign.  And I suspect that's the case.  Beto still suffers from a name-recognition deficit that he needs to close over the next three months.

There's also the common rule that undecideds break against the incumbent.  If the incumbent hasn't made the sale, the undecideds are disproportionately going to take their chances for the challenger about whom they generally know less.  But that's in polls closer to the election, so I don't think that rule particularly applies here.

But regardless--if you're a Cruz supporter, this is an alarming poll.  There's nothing in here that lends to obvious cries of "polling error."  You're at 41%, which is really, really low for a statewide Republican incumbent in Texas.  You're not behind, but that's about the only positive you can take away.

Not just undecideds break against the incumbent, but particularly against the party in power. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Texas also has a greater percent with bachelors degrees than the Deep South and those people seem more resilience to the bigoted messages of the Rs than the uneducated.  I bet there are a lot of educated Rs in Texas that are still going to vote R but feel like they need *some* crossover this time on an election or two, and that ends up being to beto’s advantage. 

[texas08 1599]

Vamos Beto!

[Js1 87042]

Quinnipac 49-43 Cruz.

It's def a race in Texas. ~6 point lead for Ted is pretty much the conventional wisdom right now.

Edited August 1, 2018 by Js1

[Ghost of LL 15674]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Quinnipac 49-43 Cruz.

It's def a race in Texas. ~6 point lead for Ted is pretty much the conventional wisdom right now.

That's down from the previous Quinnipiac Poll showing Cruz up 11.  

It's just two polls, but I do think there is some decay in Cruz's lead.

[Js1 87042]

Also the Q-pac poll has Trump's approval from 47-47 to 46-49. 

[DiceHands 349]

So when is Cruz going to debate him?

Oh thats right, hes too scared and wont.  

Get this pussy ass bitch out of office. 

[Orca of Peace 109]

for those who don't know, Beto is leaving his Rep position, regardless of the November outcome, which i find to be a terrible shame and a bad decision. He's so talented! What is he going to do in case of defeat? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

19 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

for those who don't know, Beto is leaving his Rep position, regardless of the November outcome, which i find to be a terrible shame and a bad decision. He's so talented! What is he going to do in case of defeat? 

Run for President 

[Js1 87042]

Beto was going to self term limit himself at 4 terms in the House.  He chose not to run for both.  I respect that in the guy.  He believes in his candidacy enough to not give himself that easy House victory in case.