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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Js1

Js1 85015

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If he wins in 2018, I think 2020 would be more of Beto being pushed onto the main stage of the 2020 Dem convention for potential runs in 2024 or 2028.  But perhaps they would fast track him.  While I doubt he would be mentioned much for 2020 because the 2020 election starts the day after the 2018 election.  

However this is pure speculation which means nothing if he can't pull off the Senate win in 3 months.

if he wins, he's front and center at the 2020 DNC convention either giving a primetime speech on how to win a deep-red state with personal outreach or a potential VP speech

Edited by Js1
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Js1

Js1 85015

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The Obama playbook circa 2004 for Beto if he beats Cruz.

It was also the Susana Martinez playbook until the GOP threw away the Hispanic outreach part of the post mortem.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

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Posted

Something I've been thinking about lately that I'd like y'all's input on. I've noticed a lot of replies to Facebook posts from the local Midland newspaper from obviously Hispanic posters who seem to be every bit the crazy Trumpsters as the crazy Anglos who are posting. I haven't seen any stats on what Hispanic support is like for Trump, other than an email I recently saw from some Republican PAC saying that Trump is polling surprisingly well with them. I know there is a phenomenon of second generation Mexican immigrants who seem to think Mexicans from Mexico are trash and seem to be quite happy to pull the ladder up behind them. I've seen this type of attitude expressed by my secretary and I wonder if it's at play with the surprising level of vitriol I see with pro-Trump Hispanic Facebook posters. Just kinda thinking out loud here about whether that might play out in a negative way with Beto where he might not be able to draw quite the Hispanic turnout that we might assume he would. Cruz's Trump alignment on immigration issues might play better along the border than I'd like to think.

Just tossing this out there as a discussion topic.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22572

Posted
Posted
Small towns are in danger of being fucked over by Trump/GOP policies  at the national level, and Patrick/etc. at the local level.  
Even if they don’t want to openly admit it, they know Ted/Donald/Patrick/etc. ultimately give no fucks about them or their concerns. 


The reality is that the majority of small town voters couldn’t pick Ted Cruz out of a lineup, let alone tell you his policies. They just know that anything bad in their life is due to Democrats and they need to keep voting Republican to fix all of their problems.

Beto giving these people a chance to put a face with the “enemy” and realize that maybe not all Dems are the spawn of Satan is an outside of the box idea that could pay big dividends not only this year, but in future elections as well.
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Bruh Man

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3 hours ago, Orca of Peace said:

7.6 million voted in the 2012 US Senate spot that had Cruz vs. the Democrat.  It's nice of him to do that but he needs to really go to big Latino areas IMO to register THOSE people. It's a math problem right now, he needs an energized turnout which has 90% likelihood for Beto votes. 

I agree. After this 30 day tour, He should do 30 days strictly in Hispanic areas. Dem ops are saying he's not doing enough there.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15327

Posted
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11 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Something I've been thinking about lately that I'd like y'all's input on. I've noticed a lot of replies to Facebook posts from the local Midland newspaper from obviously Hispanic posters who seem to be every bit the crazy Trumpsters as the crazy Anglos who are posting. I haven't seen any stats on what Hispanic support is like for Trump, other than an email I recently saw from some Republican PAC saying that Trump is polling surprisingly well with them. I know there is a phenomenon of second generation Mexican immigrants who seem to think Mexicans from Mexico are trash and seem to be quite happy to pull the ladder up behind them. I've seen this type of attitude expressed by my secretary and I wonder if it's at play with the surprising level of vitriol I see with pro-Trump Hispanic Facebook posters. Just kinda thinking out loud here about whether that might play out in a negative way with Beto where he might not be able to draw quite the Hispanic turnout that we might assume he would. Cruz's Trump alignment on immigration issues might play better along the border than I'd like to think.

Just tossing this out there as a discussion topic.

Yes and no.  Hispanic voters are not monolithic in the way that Black voters are or in the way white college-educated women are becoming.  There are plenty of ladder-pullers among Hispanics, as you note.  But as a group, they're still disproportionately Democratic.

For every ten new Hispanic voters Beto gets to the polls, he probably gets a net of four votes (i.e., he gets seven and Cruz gets three).  And that's a pretty damned good ROI when you're talking about a group as large as Hispanics.

When you target that a bit, your ROI goes up.  I'm sure you see the ladder-pullers out in Midland, but I think they tend to be a lot more rare in the big urban centers and down in the Valley.  Concentrating the GOTV there is going to pay serious benefits.

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Js1

Js1 85015

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yes and no.  Hispanic voters are not monolithic in the way that Black voters are or in the way white college-educated women are becoming.  There are plenty of ladder-pullers among Hispanics, as you note.  But as a group, they're still disproportionately Democratic.

For every ten new Hispanic voters Beto gets to the polls, he probably gets a net of four votes (i.e., he gets seven and Cruz gets three).  And that's a pretty damned good ROI when you're talking about a group as large as Hispanics.

When you target that a bit, your ROI goes up.  I'm sure you see the ladder-pullers out in Midland, but I think they tend to be a lot more rare in the big urban centers and down in the Valley.  Concentrating the GOTV there is going to pay serious benefits.

You also see that phenomenon with the first generation Cubans too.  They're pretty Republican and anti-immigrant, especially for refugees and asylees, despite literally using such programs to get here.

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bolverk

bolverk 29267

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55 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Something I've been thinking about lately that I'd like y'all's input on. I've noticed a lot of replies to Facebook posts from the local Midland newspaper from obviously Hispanic posters who seem to be every bit the crazy Trumpsters as the crazy Anglos who are posting. I haven't seen any stats on what Hispanic support is like for Trump, other than an email I recently saw from some Republican PAC saying that Trump is polling surprisingly well with them. I know there is a phenomenon of second generation Mexican immigrants who seem to think Mexicans from Mexico are trash and seem to be quite happy to pull the ladder up behind them. I've seen this type of attitude expressed by my secretary and I wonder if it's at play with the surprising level of vitriol I see with pro-Trump Hispanic Facebook posters. Just kinda thinking out loud here about whether that might play out in a negative way with Beto where he might not be able to draw quite the Hispanic turnout that we might assume he would. Cruz's Trump alignment on immigration issues might play better along the border than I'd like to think.

Just tossing this out there as a discussion topic.

Having grown up in Big Spring during the 1980s and still keeping my finger on the pulse of the Permian Basin, I still regularly read MRT & OA articles posted on Facebook and see the same types of comments. My take on it is that the PB Hispanic community is pretty different than those in the big cities and down in the Valley. From my understanding, the PB branch pretty much arrived in the 1940s and 1950s without too much of an influx of new immigrant blood since then, so (rightfully) they don't really see themselves as part of a larger immigrant community but instead as native West Texans. And, since that part of West Texas isn't really agricultural (no migrant farm workers), PB Hispanics are just as redneck as their Anglo counterparts with whom they work alongside in the oil fields and elsewhere. Moreover, Anglo/Hispanic intermarriage has truly become the norm now from what I see and so Hispanics are almost completely integrated and "assimilated" broadly into West Texas and particularly the Permian Basin culture. That's just my two cents.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

Approximately a million new Latino voters registered in 2016 because of Trump's racism, but they did not show up. There are plenty of Latinos registered to swing the election.

Part of Beto's problem though is what happened in the primary. Latinos who do not know the candidates will vote for the one with the Latino surname. For that reason Beto does not need random Latino voters. He needs educated ones.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

These.

And note, he's not an exceptional/really good senator....he's just 100X better than Cruz.

Actually Cruz's approval rating is substantially higher.

Republicans lost 7.5% of their vote in the 11 largest counties representing 50% of Texas voters from 2012 to 2016 and 3.5% in the next 15 counties representing 25% of the vote.

If that rate of change is equaled from 2016 to 2020 Texas will be a lean Democratic state. In 2018 it is a tossup.

Edited by RayDog
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Js1

Js1 85015

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52 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

this is a more sensible reason, not that Cornyn is an infinitely better legislator. How is that measured anyway? 

Leadership 

constituent services

didnt let Trump insult his wife and father 

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Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
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1 hour ago, RayDog said:

Republicans lost 7.5% of their vote in the 11 largest counties representing 50% of Texas voters from 2012 to 2016 and 3.5% in the next 15 counties representing 25% of the vote.

If that rate of change is equaled from 2016 to 2020 Texas will be a lean Democratic state. In 2018 it is a tossup.

I like the way you think.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1740

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30 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The new PPP pole has Cruz up 46 to 42 but after voters are told Beto does not take PAC money it flips to Beto leading 46 to 43.

But after voters are told that Beto takes money from baby killing hollyweird elites and Cruz personally rescued 126 people from hurricane Harvey, it’s a dead heat.

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Orca of Peace

Orca of Peace 109

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1fu72c.jpg

so i put this together trying to understand the Senate races from 2000-2014.  Total 2 party votes swell considerably during  POTUS years so that's probably one reason Beto is running now, avoiding 2020 and the Straight Ticket where he is not on the top of the ballot. 

In non POTUS years, the Rs are 2.49-2.85 million votes. I think we get 5.5-6.0 million votes this turnout total and with a 2-4% lead, Cruz would then be up at this moment by perhaps 110k-240k votes. 

In POTUS years, the Dems top out at 3.39mil votes, so the votes are there. I don't see Cruz enthusiasm at the polls and a lot for Beto. Do you think a heavy turnout favors Beto? IMO a 6.0mil turnout makes for a Beto win by 100k votes. 

Are early voting results advertised? A super close race would energize the Betonians.  What do the numbers tell you? 

Edited by Orca of Peace
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Sd19 tells us a lot since 3.45% more people voted Democrat then last time when a long time incumbent ran. So it is not just an almost 7% difference, but 9 or 10% if you factor in incumbency. We can compare that with Trump's 9% victory in Texas. Then we can consider that Johnson got just over 2% more of the vote in 2016 than 2012,  so 2% of independent voters are also in play. If sd19 is repeated statewide we are definitely in toss-up territory.

And usually Democrats don't show up at special elections or midterms, so sd19 tells us that we cannot go by normal midterm turnout percentages. Since almost 9 million voters voted in 2016 we should expect close to 6 million to vote in 2018. The more the better for Democrats.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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19 hours ago, Js1 said:

Because it’s a lot harder going up against a more popular Senior Senator in a presidential year. Straight ticket city. 

Ted is the Senior Senator from Texas?  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lobo short for lobotomized? 

Didn't see the previous page about why Beto didn't take on Cornyn.  I try to avoid this thread because I don't care for either Cruz nor Beto, so didn't see that page.  Yes, going up against Cornyn would have been much harder.  Especially since he can raise around Senate leadership money.  Beto won't beat Cruz, but will be curious to see if can finish within 4-5% points...it'll inspire the Democrats to really unload on a candidate and put them up against Cornyn in 2020.  Futile, but interesting to watch.  

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Orca of Peace

Orca of Peace 109

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

"not a real" Ted Cruz campaign could mean several things - if that is not a parody ad, then it is even funnier than if it is.

the first guy looks like a Duck Dynasty character, then the young bald guy was from Full Metal Jacket who killed himself in th restroom. The clincher was the girl who refused to be kissed. 

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