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Cruz vs Beto


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20 minutes ago, Jograves said:

Please vote, young people. Please. 

Two good charts to keep in mind when viewing these polls.  Young people don't vote, and they vote even less in midterms relative to the olds.  Howeva, they are a huge segment of the voting age population, so they can make up ground even at low turnout rates.   The 55+ group in the above chart is only 25% of voting age population.  To say it in another way, 75% of Texans fall in the very pro-Beto 18-34 and 35-54 ranges.  

 

1*2j6BC_8ta79JCSh2IlVL1w.png

 

Male 10,352,910 49.6
Female 10,498,910 50.4
     
Under 5 years 1,624,628 7.8
5 to 9 years 1,654,184 7.9
10 to 14 years 1,631,192 7.8
15 to 19 years 1,636,232 7.8
20 to 24 years 1,539,404 7.4
25 to 34 years 3,162,083 15.2
35 to 44 years 3,322,238 15.9
45 to 54 years 2,611,137 12.5
55 to 59 years 896,521 4.3
60 to 64 years 701,669 3.4
65 to 74 years 1,142,608 5.5
75 to 84 years 691,984 3.3
85 years and over 237,940

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

My point is, I consider myself pretty hyper aware when it comes to politics these days, but I didn't understand this simple rule.  I can't imagine the general layman who normally wouldn't vote in a midterm understands it either.  I was still going to vote, but I thought of course Travis County is in the bag, so my vote probably wouldn't make much difference. 

Trust me, if you know the names of the two main candidates in the race, you are ahead of lots of people. When I was at UT, it turned out that maybe 3 out of 20 students in one of my classes had even voted in that year's election. I stopped class and trooped them down to the WW1 memorial behind the Littlefield Fountain, where I had them apologize, one by one, to the dead.

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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

DlnRwkLW4AARNbO.jpg:large

 

34 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Two good charts to keep in mind when viewing these polls.  Young people don't vote, and they vote even less in midterms relative to the olds.  Howeva, they are a huge segment of the voting age population, so they can make up ground even at low turnout rates.   The 55+ group in the above chart is only 25% of voting age population.  To say it in another way, 75% of Texans fall in the very pro-Beto 18-34 and 35-54 ranges.  

 

1*2j6BC_8ta79JCSh2IlVL1w.png

 

Male 10,352,910 49.6
Female 10,498,910 50.4
     
Under 5 years 1,624,628 7.8
5 to 9 years 1,654,184 7.9
10 to 14 years 1,631,192 7.8
15 to 19 years 1,636,232 7.8
20 to 24 years 1,539,404 7.4
25 to 34 years 3,162,083 15.2
35 to 44 years 3,322,238 15.9
45 to 54 years 2,611,137 12.5
55 to 59 years 896,521 4.3
60 to 64 years 701,669 3.4
65 to 74 years 1,142,608 5.5
75 to 84 years 691,984 3.3
85 years and over 237,940

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.

 

 

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I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.
 
 

I “know a guy” and apparently there’s a real path to victory becoming visible. It’s extremely narrow and my guess still is that Beto comes up short, but this isn’t impossible anymore.
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56 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.

 

 

how did you get the turnout percentage per age group?

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5 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

And I agree with EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE (except a blanket "ban the box" on job applications -- there are some crimes that are and should be relevant for some jobs; if you've been convicted of embezzlement, a bank etc. can ask about that, if you've been convicted of a sex crime or abuse of a minor, a day care or school can ask about that, etc., AND, it should go hand-in-hand with some immunity to liability for the employer for hiring a person convicted of a crime.  I don't want to go on a long digression -- the point is, I agree with his general point, with some refinement).

These are moves that make fiscal sense, social sense, and governmental sense.

Ted Cruz will tweet about Beto being "SOFT ON CRIME!" in 3...2....1....

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2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Trust me, if you know the names of the two main candidates in the race, you are ahead of lots of people. When I was at UT, it turned out that maybe 3 out of 20 students in one of my classes had even voted in that year's election. I stopped class and trooped them down to the WW1 memorial behind the Littlefield Fountain, where I had them apologize, one by one, to the dead.

Kind of weird.

Also why are you liking all of brothahorns stupid ass posts in this thread? 

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1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

motherfucker, i don't show up where you work trying to get you fired, so how bout you do the same for me?

Don't worry, you're from Alabama.  There are no sex crimes there.  Just "things we just won't mention at Sunday supper, okay?"

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17 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Starting to believe that no debates actually benefit Beto.

I dunno.  The thought of these two on stage together, where the contrast is so stark, makes me think about the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debates.  Cruz would look like an even bigger sniveling, snot-spewing, fetid, odious wretch of a human being replica than he actually is.  

Edited by Horndog
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You have got to be kidding. Are you even from Texas? You'd rather keep Cruz for 6 more years and reward his total lack of integrity and scruples than fire him, because of Lance Armstrong and some fucking okeydoke about gun bullshit? Seriously, man. You are being played for a sucker. What on earth would be worse than Ted Cruz? Do you not understand how bad at his job this guy is?
Bookmarking so I give you a proper response tonight.
Kind of weird.
Also why are you liking all of brothahorns stupid ass posts in this thread? 
Why would you even worry about something like that? Do you feel sad that groupthink is not 100% in this thread?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I agree.  For one, this race is actually trending his way so no need to rock the boat.  Second, if they debate he will be the more affable guy on stage, but he will also be forced to talk about issues where his positions will give Texas voters pause.

His platform may be popular with this board and with a lot of Texans, but the platform still isn’t a winner with the majority here.  He can win by being positive, likable and “not Ted Cruz” if the election is a referendum on Cruz.  What he’s doing now accomplishes that.  Debates just give that right leaning Texan  who is personally disgusted by Cruz more opportunites to rationalize their way into, “He may be a spineless scumbag, but at least he won’t vote to let the government into my medicine / kill babies / grab my guns / [insert other talking point about The Left].”

And you can tell that Cruz desperately wants Beto to engage him and Beto is still pretty much ignoring him on the campaign trail and in town halls - Cruz' name isn't even brought up at these events (which must gall the hell out of Cruz).

On a debate stage, they'll be forced to interact and you know that Cruz is going to go after Beto with both barrels from the first minute in an attempt to get under Beto's skin.  Yes Cruz will look evil and reptilian if he does that, but even most of his supporters recognize that he's an evil retile who sells out his own family if it means a few more votes.  He's already unlikeable so he doesn't lose much by being...um...unlikeable in a debate.

It'll be must-see TV.

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8 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

Bookmarking so I give you a proper response tonight. Why would you even worry about something like that? Do you feel sad that groupthink is not 100% in this thread?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
 

Not worried or sad. Just asking questions...

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1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Not worried or sad. Just asking questions...

Well then, to give you a more polite answer, part of what I liked about Old Shaggy was that there were cranky bastards on there, you could disagree with them 100%, but you had to deal with it because it was truly hard to crowd-source them. It made the place more entertaining.

I didn't "like" Rocko, or Swam, but I was sorry to see them get run out of this site. I tried to give Swam a ton of rep on his last day, and I don't think I ever agreed with a thing he said.

And hell, I actually think Brotha is somebody I could have a beer with whether we agree or not. So if we're playing rep-stratego, I'll throw some there to try to keep the place more varied.

Finally, isn't there some damn Code of Honor that short of "go kill yourself" or similar, anything goes neg-rep-free in Cloak Room?

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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is there a libertarian candidate?  Beto should just book debates with that guy and leave an empty chair for snotface.

So, apparently Neal Dikeman (Class of 98, whoop!)  is the libertarian candidate and we also have the independents Carl Bible, Jonathan Jenkins and Bob McNeil.

 

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15 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Well then, to give you a more polite answer, part of what I liked about Old Shaggy was that there were cranky bastards on there, you could disagree with them 100%, but you had to deal with it because it was truly hard to crowd-source them. It made the place more entertaining.

I didn't "like" Rocko, or Swam, but I was sorry to see them get run out of this site. I tried to give Swam a ton of rep on his last day, and I don't think I ever agreed with a thing he said.

And hell, I actually think Brotha is somebody I could have a beer with whether we agree or not. So if we're playing rep-stratego, I'll throw some there to try to keep the place more varied.

Finally, isn't there some damn Code of Honor that short of "go kill yourself" or similar, anything goes neg-rep-free in Cloak Room?

Good answer and I agree with you. I too was sad to see swam and rocko go. Even started #unbantheswam to no avail. Not as familiar with brothahorn but if he’s not a troll as you say I’ll give him some rep to counter the negs I recently gave him. 

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1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Good answer and I agree with you. I too was sad to see swam and rocko go. Even started #unbantheswam to no avail. Not as familiar with brothahorn but if he’s not a troll as you say I’ll give him some rep to counter the negs I recently gave him. 

Dang, man, now that we have been talking, I feel sorry that I cussed you. I take it back.

Probably time for me to push away from the keyboard.

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