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Cruz vs Beto


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4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:


The 529?thing is nothing but a taxpayer subsidy for private schools. It once again shows the GOP to be the enemy of public education.

Way to attract those suburban moms!


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Broke public school teachers is an issue they need to be pushing. Get those Oklahoma teachers in front of people and explain that this is the future Ted Cruz and the GOP want for our schools.

 

Lots of neutralish/ back the blue suburban mom types will get on board with that issue

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That’s more of a state thing. Making 529s applicable to lower  Schools just reduces the effective cost of going to private school (a little). It does not actively defund public schools like Vouchers system would  because it doesn’t reduce your property taxes. Not worthy of too much hate. 

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That’s more of a state thing. Making 529s applicable to lower  Schools just reduces the effective cost of going to private school (a little). It does not actively defund public schools like Vouchers system would  because it doesn’t reduce your property taxes. Not worthy of too much hate. 

It’s less money going to the treasury, effectively giving the rich and parochial-school parents a tax break for behavior they would have done regardless. It’s completely a federal subsidy for private schools.


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That’s more of a state thing. Making 529s applicable to lower  Schools just reduces the effective cost of going to private school (a little). It does not actively defund public schools like Vouchers system would  because it doesn’t reduce your property taxes. Not worthy of too much hate. 

It’s less money going to the treasury, effectively giving the rich and parochial-school parents a tax break for behavior they would have done regardless. It’s completely a federal subsidy for private schools.


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2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Someone should start a PAC called Cucks for Cruz and then buy commercial time with the ad consisting of nothing but someone reading Cruz's quotes from the 2016 campaign about what a pyscopath Trump is, all the while displaying the phonebank photo. End it with texas tough. Never mention Beto, never criticize Cruz. Just his words.

 

This ad paid for by Cucks for Cruz.

Cruisin’ for Cruz

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:


It’s less money going to the treasury, effectively giving the rich and parochial-school parents a tax break for behavior they would have done regardless. It’s completely a federal subsidy for private schools.


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 it’s marginal because 529s don’t save much taxes plus it is general funds it is taking out of, not school-dedicated funds.  Getting mad about this is super small potatoes.  

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15 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Woah hold on there.  Way too soon to tell or call shots.  Hopefully we get some polling next week.

It will always be too soon to call shots.  After 2016, no one should make predictions. 

However, there’s something different about this race.  One side has all the energy and momentum and the other side offers literally nothing.

I feel like I can see the writing on the wall from here, 68 days out. 

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Our eighth and final phone bank is underway. It's very obvious that Beto's name recognition has skyrocketed in the last five weeks.  A lot more people we call know who he is. It's also gratifying to see how many enthusiastic young people are showing up for these things.  I would say the average age of our attendees is about 23.  NW Austin peeps, too bad you weren't able to show up, you would have enjoyed the, um, "scenery".  No, no pics.  I want these girls to come back if we have any more events.  Anyway M12 is going this weekend to be trained as a volunteer trainer and I'll probably do the same.  We're all in.  We've also contributed the max to his campaign. That's right.  The 1%, I am in it.  


Happy to pick up the torch here if you are finished phone banking.

HRC Austin has solid equipment and software to make it easy and we have a south Lamar location and about 4-5 dates for phone banking. Same deal ... must love teh gays, trannies and POCs and be okay being the minority in the room for a change. But my homie in charge makes it a good fucking time. If you are interested PM me.
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I know I’m going to be in the minority on this but I think Beto wins and it’s not going to be that close.
like Beto by three to five points. 

The enthusiasm supports your conclusion but we have to see how the GOTV works. Honestly he’s mobilizing like a mofo now. He really could pull this off and walk away with it in modern political numbers - flipping negative 9 to positive 3-4. I’m thinking it’s a nail biter either way but thinking he wins bc he’s yet to fuck up and that makes me think his campaign is rock solid for the next two phases - GOTV and defend the TV onslaught. It’s clear he’s going to campaign like a man on fire though and that’s what it will take.

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This will be my first midterms to participate in, and Beto is now my first candidate to donate money to, which I would have never imagined doing for anyone a couple of years ago. If I see Cruz's face ever again, it will be too soon. Unless it's in the photo of him phone-banking for trump. Or of his own family clearly hating him. Or realizing he lost his Texas Senate seat when he probably thought he was going to be president 3 years ago. What a cuck.

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2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Here is the text from the Cruz flier in there they want you to pass around:

 

It's like reading my resume when I was 17.  "Led efforts to remediate high temperature food dispensaries that fed hundreds."  You cleaned the grease trap at Corn Dog 7?  Yeah.

 

Look at how little there is and how little any of that has to do with Texas interests -- and I am accepting his characterizations of his own actions. 

Authored and passed law allowing states to drug test unemployment benefit recipients • Don't care, at best

Authored and passed law banning known terrorists from entering the US to be UN representatives • Don't care.  This is your number 2 thing?  Some Jade Helm sounding thing?

Authored and passed law directing $5 billion in tax relief for Hurricane victims • Great!

Authored and passed law expanding 529 savings accounts to include K-12 education • Don't care, at best

Authored and passed law mandating Fort Hood shooting victims receive the Purple Heart • Don't care, sounds super small and something that took nothing more than writing on a letterhead and sending it to committee

Authored and passed law to develop first ever space-based missile interceptor testbed • SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE!

Authored and passed law to designate North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism • Whew.  I imagine that was quite a battle to get others to finally view DPRK as a bad guy

Authored and passed law with bipartisan support strengthening NASA • SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE!

Led effort to pass law that repealed Obamacare individual mandate

Authored and passed law allowing your ISP, which you pay for, to watch what you do online and sell that info to the highest bidder.

Authored and passed law allowing Verizon to throttle firefighters fighting forest fires.

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I’m still not sold that Beto can pull this off, but Cruz is running the EXACT kind of campaign that could make it possible.

If he and his team sat down at the beginning of this and tried to brainstorm how to come off as unlikable as possible, I don’t think it would look much different than what he is currently doing.

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2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Here is the text from the Cruz flier in there they want you to pass around:

 

It's like reading my resume when I was 17.  "Led efforts to remediate high temperature food dispensaries that fed hundreds."  You cleaned the grease trap at Corn Dog 7?  Yeah.

 

Look at how little there is and how little any of that has to do with Texas interests -- and I am accepting his characterizations of his own actions. 

Authored and passed law allowing states to drug test unemployment benefit recipients • Don't care, at best

Authored and passed law banning known terrorists from entering the US to be UN representatives • Don't care.  This is your number 2 thing?  Some Jade Helm sounding thing?

Authored and passed law directing $5 billion in tax relief for Hurricane victims • Great!

Authored and passed law expanding 529 savings accounts to include K-12 education • Don't care, at best

Authored and passed law mandating Fort Hood shooting victims receive the Purple Heart • Don't care, sounds super small and something that took nothing more than writing on a letterhead and sending it to committee

Authored and passed law to develop first ever space-based missile interceptor testbed • SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE!

Authored and passed law to designate North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism • Whew.  I imagine that was quite a battle to get others to finally view DPRK as a bad guy

Authored and passed law with bipartisan support strengthening NASA • SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE SPACE FORCE!

Led effort to pass law that repealed Obamacare individual mandate

 

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I know I’m going to be in the minority on this but I think Beto wins and it’s not going to be that close.

like Beto by three to five points. 

I am finally thinking Beto has a chance too. But only because Ted officially labeled North Korea a bad guy. Doesnt he know that Trump ushered in an era of peace with North Korea and that Kim Jong Un should only be lauded? Really, the fucker's core base wears shirts that says they would rather be Russian than Democrats.

And Ted's list is dumb as shit.  Beto should win but he wont because the Texas voting base is still pretty dumb as shit too. It's a bunch of old people, slorches, brotherhorns who only care about guns, wulaws who only care about abortion, and Johnny Sacks who only care about the rich. 

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I meant to add that the Republican vote actually dropped 8,868 votes in the 26 largest counties between 2012 and 2016, so the effective growth in those counties went Democrat and Libertarian. I expect most of the one-time Libertarians will vote for Beto, and that 5 to 10% of the Republicans will as well.

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21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

In the 26 largest counties with 75% of the voters Republicans won by 332,590 votes in 2012, but the Democrats won by 262,992 votes in 2016. The Libertarian vote increased by 161,147 votes at the same time representing potential swing voters. Statewide the Libertarian vote went up about 195,000. If you look at actual data Democrats have made inroads.

In the 228 smaller counties the Republicans won by 929,129 votes in 2012 and 1070171 votes in 2016 a 141,042 improvement.

Based on linearly extending the simple 2012 to 2016 trend and assuming a 60% midterm turnout for both parties the Democrats would win the big counties by 559,543 votes. A 60% decrease in smaller county turnout from 2016 would give the Republicans a 642,102 vote advantage there for a net win of 82,559 votes statewide. This is before factoring in what the swing Libertarian vote does, or if there is a blue wave, or that 10% of Republicans have abandoned the party, and many other bad trends for the Republicans.

A recent poll put Cruz's support in rural areas at 66%, when the R advantage in the 228 smallest counties was 72.5% in 2012 and 74.6% in 2016. If Cruz only has 66% support in the 228 smallest counties, not all of which is rural by the way, he only wins them by 443,205, once again assuming a 60% turnout by both sides.

I am starting to think there is a realistic possibility that Beto will have a 800,000 to a million vote advantage in the 26 biggest counties, and the rural vote will be unable to make up the difference. That comes to a 6 to 10 point win.

I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.

 

 

I don't think it's safe to assume the progression will be linear. The margin from 2012 to 16 was cut in half (15 to 9 percent), and it was basically all because of Trump. As we've seen, not many people that voted Trump 16 are prone to changing their mind. Maybe some stay home, and yes, there is some degree of turnout surge coming from the big cities coupled with some flips in the suburbs. How big is impossible to say for sure but a swing in the ballpark of 750k is pretty massive... That is basically what separated Hillary and Trump in a Presidential year.

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6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I don't think it's safe to assume the progression will be linear. The margin from 2012 to 16 was cut in half (15 to 9 percent), and it was basically all because of Trump. As we've seen, not many people that voted Trump 16 are prone to changing their mind. Maybe some stay home, and yes, there is some degree of turnout surge coming from the big cities coupled with some flips in the suburbs. How big is impossible to say for sure but a swing in the ballpark of 750k is pretty massive... That is basically what separated Hillary and Trump in a Presidential year.

The growth in the large counties continues to be pretty constant, and those new voters are going overwhelmingly to the Democrats. The Republicans saw an average of 7.5% decline in their vote percentage vote from 2012 to 2016 in the large counties, averaged by county while the total Republican vote changed very little. I think a linear approximation is fair.

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Can we stop comparing Wendy Davis to Beto? Davis’ big moment was before she even ran for governor. One filibuster versus what Beto has done on this campaign...there’s no comparison.

 

Trotting out Wendy Davis as why Beto can’t win is tired and ridiculous.

 

Her campaign has literally nothing to do with this election.

 

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Bunch of premature ejaculators on this thread.  A 5+ point win for Beto?  Would love it if that happens but that I just think that's wildly unrealistic.

Let's just see where things stand when the next round of polling comes out so we can all see what effect this anthem-kneeling kerfuffle and Harvey nonsense has had in the race.

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17 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Didn’t the last presidential election prove that polling is antiquated and in no way a real predictor of election night? 

Serious question. 

I would have said no recently and offer the explanation that we saw something unlikely happen and you can’t extrapolate anything from that, but now I’m not so sure.  I think people enjoy screwing with the polls + social pressure to say you agree with one side makes people hide their positions from the polls more.  Add in a little “fake news” where people want the news stations to be wrong so they intentionally misrepresent their beliefs (texags has people explicitly claiming they do this) and I think polls are in fact less reliable in this era.  

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Didn’t the last presidential election prove that polling is antiquated and in no way a real predictor of election night? 
Serious question. 

No. Polling is still mostly accurate and has improved since 2016, when there were what economists would call “externalities” (“No Collusion!!!”). Even then, the polling wasn’t that far off as Trump lost the popular vote bigly and won a few Midwest states by a few thousand votes to put him over the top in the electoral college.

The pollsters mostly get it right. But there are the outliers like Gillum. And Trump.
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13 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I just feel bad since you send so many nudes, I feel like I should at least respond so you don’t get down on yourself

For the first time on Surly, and I think there is a consensus here when I say this, but "No pics please."

4 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Broke public school teachers is an issue they need to be pushing. Get those Oklahoma teachers in front of people and explain that this is the future Ted Cruz and the GOP want for our schools.

 

Lots of neutralish/ back the blue suburban mom types will get on board with that issue

Rural wimmenz too. That's where Davis really dropped the ball -- didn't seem like she tried even a little bit to win over the country girls. 

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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Bunch of premature ejaculators on this thread.  A 5+ point win for Beto?  Would love it if that happens but that I just think that's wildly unrealistic.

Let's just see where things stand when the next round of polling comes out so we can all see what effect this anthem-kneeling kerfuffle and Harvey nonsense has had in the race.

Surly politics board has largely morphed into an echo chamber on this race, but I actually think Beto has a good chance of winning.  Cruz is such a fucking shit hole POS and the blue wave is real. I continue putting money down on it. 

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3 hours ago, RayDog said:

I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.

 

 

I'm not sure there was a good candidate available. The only other notable Texas Democrats are the Castro brothers.

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11 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Whites make up less than 45% and it’s still a red state because Hispanics here either don’t vote as much as whites and/or they become Republicans in higher percentages than in other parts of the country.  You still have to give them a reason to vote Democrat.

If it were really as simple as demographics and Hispanics who choose to live in Texas being automatic Democrats, then Tony Sanchez would have been governor several elections ago and gotten about double the votes he actually received.

You’re leaving out all of the out-of-staters who are moving in and diluting the white/GOP vote. 

And there’s no reason to think that won’t continue.  Too many fucking West Coast  license plates all over the place. 

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1 hour ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Rural wimmenz too. That's where Davis really dropped the ball -- didn't seem like she tried even a little bit to win over the country girls. 

Fact. She was considered a city whore. Did not connect.

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1 minute ago, RPM said:

Fact. She was considered a city whore. Did not connect.

What bugged me about it was she didn't even try to fight that image. She seemed content to hang around with fancy city women who told her how great she was in little wine-parties on safe ground for everywhere from, like, Highland Park to River Oaks and Westlake Hills. She seemed averse to trying to win over Longview, Lufkin and Abilene, and I really think she could have picked up some ground there, but she didn't even try. 

 

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In the 26 largest counties with 75% of the voters Republicans won by 332,590 votes in 2012, but the Democrats won by 262,992 votes in 2016. The Libertarian vote increased by 161,147 votes at the same time representing potential swing voters. Statewide the Libertarian vote went up about 195,000. If you look at actual data Democrats have made inroads.
In the 228 smaller counties the Republicans won by 929,129 votes in 2012 and 1070171 votes in 2016 a 141,042 improvement.
Based on linearly extending the simple 2012 to 2016 trend and assuming a 60% midterm turnout for both parties the Democrats would win the big counties by 559,543 votes. A 60% decrease in smaller county turnout from 2016 would give the Republicans a 642,102 vote advantage there for a net win of 82,559 votes statewide. This is before factoring in what the swing Libertarian vote does, or if there is a blue wave, or that 10% of Republicans have abandoned the party, and many other bad trends for the Republicans.
A recent poll put Cruz's support in rural areas at 66%, when the R advantage in the 228 smallest counties was 72.5% in 2012 and 74.6% in 2016. If Cruz only has 66% support in the 228 smallest counties, not all of which is rural by the way, he only wins them by 443,205, once again assuming a 60% turnout by both sides.
I am starting to think there is a realistic possibility that Beto will have a 800,000 to a million vote advantage in the 26 biggest counties, and the rural vote will be unable to make up the difference. That comes to a 6 to 10 point win.
I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.
 
 

That’s a very interesting analysis
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9 hours ago, NowThis said:

the young female vote 18-35 is going to give Beto the victory, if he wins. He's Justin Trudeau, youngish good looking rock star who is a good listener and the hugs/kisses are real. They love him. 

So what you are saying is that young women in that age bracket are swayed by looks and emotions?  That they couldn't have a thought in their head that might concur with any of Beto's platform planks on education, health care, immigration, teachers, vets, women's rights, and on and on?  Maybe it's time we stop looking at younger women as vapid airheads that trend to every new shiny object that comes along.  Yes, there are plenty of Kardashians out there, but I think we should recognize there are plenty who aren't and give them credit for being capable of intelligent thought. 

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8 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

So what you are saying is that young women in that age bracket are swayed by looks and emotions?  That they couldn't have a thought in their head that might concur with any of Beto's platform planks on education, health care, immigration, teachers, vets, women's rights, and on and on?  Maybe it's time we stop looking at younger women as vapid airheads that trend to every new shiny object that comes along.  Yes, there are plenty of Kardashians out there, but I think we should recognize there are plenty who aren't and give them credit for being capable of intelligent thought. 

His platform resembles that of Bernie Sanders , and young women like Bernie too, but the good looks does bring more. I have family in Canada and young women who would not necessarily be interested in politics just luuuvv Justin Trudeau. It matters. Not saying BOR is really that hot, but there's a slight edge, in fact that idea has been referenced to some degree in this thread. 

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8 hours ago, deech said:

I'm a huge fan, but I'll believe he can win when he wins.  I mean everyone remembers Wendy Davis, right?

 

 

Honestly I do not remember much about Wendy Davis.  I never listened to any of her speeches, or read anything about her.  I sure didn't donate to her campaign.   I was in a state of complacency figuring Texas Dems were up to their old tricks of running some  shocking "in your face female" to wake up that side of the vote (Lupe Valdez?).  I was in that state of complacency because both sides seemed to be approaching politics the same way, with hand extended to the PACs.   My vote did not matter, so whoever Wendy Davis was didn't matter either. 

I do know who Beto is, and I was aware of him early on.  Because he was different, he seemed to be doing things the right way.  He was positive and was reaching out to the people all over, of all shape, color, age or class.  He reawakened the idea in me that we are a government of the people, not over the people. 

So no, I didn't know much about Wendy Davis, and I would bet that I know so much more about Beto is because he broke rank with the Texas Dems and is doing things his way.  I think there are a lot of people just like me who are being rejuvenated and feeling their voice and vote can matter.  And I think it will be enough too.

 

There was talk back up the board about the outside money coming in, and making Beto seem like some sort of plant by the SJWs and Hollywood.   I think that Texas should wake up and be proud that we have the chance to be represented by someone who the whole country would want representing them.  That Texas can provide a senator that can lead the way out of this morass our government has fallen into.  We whine about PAC money, Beto doesn't take any.  We fume about lack of debate and compromise across the aisle, Beto is throwing down the gauntlet there, pushing for discussion and movement on critical issues.  There is a country out there thirsty for someone like Beto.  We have our own Mr Smith we can send to Washington and we should be damned proud to do so.  To start healing this country by sending the best people we have to represent us. 

Yes outside people are recognizing him, and donating money, because they want to see more leaders like him in DC. 

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