Jump to content

Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 13.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

Not much of a path with people's minds made up

Quote

Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers.

Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating.

O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating.

Trump at +0 (49-49) in this poll.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted

It's not just (or even mainly) about Beto winning. Dems needs to be building their bench in Texas. Beto needs to be campaigning with every Dem candidate in the state at every level to build power in the state. Focusing on Beto himself as a central god figure is as idiotic for Dems in Texas as focusing on Obama as a central god figure was for the Dems nationally.

Beto is unlikely to win, but it IS likely that the Dems can get a lot more seats at the political power table in Texas even if they don't do the improbable and win the Senate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15478

Posted
Posted

It's a bad poll.  There's no two ways about it.  I'd much rather the poll show my guy up 9 than down 9.  That's obvious.

But it should be equally obvious that it's one poll.  It's one poll that is at variance with about three other polls.  And does anybody think that this race went from an R+3 race to an R+9 race over the course of the last two weeks?  Is there anything that would explain that?

It seems clear to me that this is a function of Quinnipiac's likely-voter screen.  They're a good polling outfit, so I'm not going to second-guess their methodology.  But I'm also not going to panic until I see some confirmation.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
formermav43

formermav43 4599

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Everyone! Come quick! Remember that guy, you know, the guy who works with seed? Yeah, the seed guy. Well gather round, he has opinions on politics! Why yes, they are exactly what you would think they would be! 

On 9/7/2018 at 5:02 PM, Hank Scorpio said:

Everyone! Gather round! The "I'm just asking questions" guy has arrived! He demands proof! Who will have the courage to answer his riddles?! Step right up! 

 

Zing!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Message Board User

Message Board User 12389

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

But it should be equally obvious that it's one poll.  It's one poll that is at variance with about three other polls.  And does anybody think that this race went from an R+3 race to an R+9 race over the course of the last two weeks?  Is there anything that would explain that?

Hobnobbing with Ellen and Colbert and Cruz effectively using Beto’s full throated support for the anthem-kneelers against him?

maybe it’s too early to do Monday morning quarterbacking, but these are issues and strategies outside of mainstream Texas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15478

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Hobnobbing with Ellen and Colbert and Cruz effectively using Beto’s full throated support for the anthem-kneelers against him?

maybe it’s too early to do Monday morning quarterbacking, but these are issues and strategies outside of mainstream Texas.

Nah--the tweet above succinctly states my thoughts.  Quinnipiac has been Cruz-leaning from the outset, and this is just indicative of their switch to the likely-voter model.

As an aside and to all those freaking out--do you really think that Beto's going to do no better than Hillary fucking Clinton?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8691

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Hobnobbing with Ellen and Colbert and Cruz effectively using Beto’s full throated support for the anthem-kneelers against him?

maybe it’s too early to do Monday morning quarterbacking, but these are issues and strategies outside of mainstream Texas.

If Beto’s stance on NFL protests is the issue that decides the election, we should all admit our state is full of morons

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

Posted
Posted

Yeah, one poll. Part of Beto's strategy is to tap people who normally don't vote. By design, Quinnipac will not count these.

If not one poll. Fuck it. Run for President. If only there was an example of someone with House experience losing a Senate race to be elected two years later to the Presidency over the same opponent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dertyberd

Dertyberd 394

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke

Lulz. This shit always cracks me up.  Living in Oklahoma, which I consider very similar in the white christian demo, I always have to tell people who get excited about the women's vote around here to chill there shit out.  I mostly am around independent, professional, non church going women in my "liberal" bubble, and they all think how great the next election is going to be because the women will step up this time and oust the asshole who doesn't support their issues.  You forget that there is still a whooooooole lot of stay at home mom's, rich old white lady's, and ignorant racists that live amongst us.  Just because the professional woman see how hard it can be for women in the male dominated society, a lot of women see the way things are a having a pretty good gig.  Personal trainers, tea rooms, and Target don't staying busy in the middle of the afternoon because of college educated working women.  The female vote is far from a monolith and it drives me crazy when commentators talk about the female vote like there aren't several very opposed factions.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
formermav43

formermav43 4599

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Is it your contention that our state ISN’T full of morons?

Surly is full of morons, and presumably it tends to be better educated than the populace as a whole. It’s horrifying to read some of the threads here or on the football board and realize that guy might have a degree from Texas.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brandywine

Brandywine 1312

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Nah--the tweet above succinctly states my thoughts.  Quinnipiac has been Cruz-leaning from the outset, and this is just indicative of their switch to the likely-voter model.

As an aside and to all those freaking out--do you really think that Beto's going to do no better than Hillary fucking Clinton?

How do they get those likely voters? Landlines? Cell phones? How many of you still have landlines? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
Just now, Post Oak said:

1.Poll says one thing.  

2.Cruz's campaign says another.

3.Patrick asking Trump for help says another.

4. Cornyn helping says another.

I choose to believe that the actions of the GOP shows the numbers are alot closer than Quinnipac.

The thing these polls miss are the unlikely voters which is where Beto’s campaign is focused via grassroots mobilization.

 

A recent example of how badly these polls can miss is the Alexandria Ocasio Cortez primary where she was double digits behind the incumbent just before the election.

The given DNC strategy for her was a list of democratic voters and a recommendation to knock on their doors 10 times.  She ditched that strategy and knocked on everyone else’s door instead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
F250

F250 28680

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Nice humblebrag. 

Next time include she was 20 and hot and you’ve got something there.

She was a hot 22 year old strawberry blonde stripper but that was during the early days of the Clinton administration.

6002034545_d64bfe1e81.jpg

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13410

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's a bad poll.  There's no two ways about it.  I'd much rather the poll show my guy up 9 than down 9.  That's obvious.

But it should be equally obvious that it's one poll.  It's one poll that is at variance with about three other polls.  And does anybody think that this race went from an R+3 race to an R+9 race over the course of the last two weeks?  Is there anything that would explain that?

It seems clear to me that this is a function of Quinnipiac's likely-voter screen.  They're a good polling outfit, so I'm not going to second-guess their methodology.  But I'm also not going to panic until I see some confirmation.

Great points.  I think most Beto supporters here recognize that his win is unlikely but this polls is showing that Cruz just pulled in undecideds at a high rate.   That doesn't seem to match with any common sense.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...