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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Mack Tripper

Mack Tripper 696

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Hobnobbing with Ellen and Colbert and Cruz effectively using Beto’s full throated support for the anthem-kneelers against him?

maybe it’s too early to do Monday morning quarterbacking, but these are issues and strategies outside of mainstream Texas.

Beto's positions are not outside of the mainstream in Texas. 

This is from the NYT/Siena poll done more recently than the Qpac poll for TX-7, which was +21 Romney/+1 Hillary. This has Beto +7 over Cruz. 

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
  APPROVE    DISAPP.    DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 42% 52% 6%
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
  REPS. KEEP HOUSE    DEMS. TAKE HOUSE     DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 48% 48% 4%
Do you favor abolishing ICE, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency?
  SUPPORT   OPPOSE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 28% 63% 9%
Do you support a bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border?
  SUPPORT   OPPOSE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 39% 54% 6%
Do you support or oppose a federal ban on the sale of assault-style guns and high-capacity magazines?
  SUPPORT   OPPOSE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 60% 35% 5%
Are iIllegal immigrants living in the United States more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes?
  AGREE   DISAGREE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 23% 68% 9%
Does it bother you to hear immigrants speak a foreign language in a public place?
  AGREE   DISAGREE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 20% 73% 8%
Are there places in your area, say within a mile of where you live, where you're afraid to walk alone at night?
  AGREE   DISAGREE   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 38% 60% 2%
If the general election for United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke?
  BETO O’ROURKE   TED CRUZ   DON’T KNOW
Voters n = 491 51% 44% 5%

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-1.html

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89824

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I agree that a statement like that SHOULD be pretty uncontroversial, but there are millions of Texans who would immediately attack Cruz for "NOT BACKING THE BLUE!!!"  People get crazy about this stuff.

Those people never come into contact with law enforcement outside of an occasional speeding ticket.  They don’t have to deal with asshole BP agents while simply going to get groceries or going fishing.  They don’t have to sweat when pulled over.  They can openly be annoyed with the officer.

Have the murder victim be a young man from a small town, who was an Eagle Scout, Army veteran, attending SMU or Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary.

Have Cruz trot out the same statement and see the reaction.  

These same people would privately be calling her a cunt, and openly asking why there are women police officers.  They would be bitching about how horrible big cities are, and how we are living in a police state. They would be trying to get her voting or donor records, looking for a link to Democrat politicians. They would be scouring her social media profiles for photos of her wearing a Hillary shirt or Nike shoes. 

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Js1

Js1 85602

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Because at the heart of it, no one is FOR Cruz. They're for the R. That's all that matters.

The old adage - Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

Don't matter if it was Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Jimbo Fisher, etc., R candidate = vote.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26579

Posted
Posted

Everybody settle down and go read the methodology. This poll reflects traditional likely voters in a Texas election.The headline is that Cruz is viewed only very slightly favorably, and 43% of the electorate doesn’t know who Beto O’Rourke is yet.

I still say Cruz wins, but this poll is just a sample of likely voter response under normal assumptions.

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troph

troph 24912

Posted
Posted

Beto is betting on turnout and nontraditional voters, just look at his GOTV strategy and his campaigning at the universities. He’s also campaigning to flip republicans. Some of y’all are a lot smarter than me on this stuff but if the poll is likely voters, a sizable number of Beto voters or at least the ones he’s banking on weren’t called in representative and proportionate numbers.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Everybody settle down and go read the methodology. This poll reflects traditional likely voters in a Texas election.The headline is that Cruz is viewed only very slightly favorably, and 43% of the electorate doesn’t know who Beto O’Rourke is yet.

I still say Cruz wins, but this poll is just a sample of likely voter response under normal assumptions.
 

I didn't see anything in there that skewed the likely voters.  I did see that they scale based on the most recent census, which gives some hope.  2010 was a long time ago with Texas getting 211,000 additional people via migration per year.  Those "changing demographics".

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gmr548

gmr548 16617

Posted
Posted

This. I've thrown water on all the "Beto gonna win" posts but this poll is equally out there. The idea that Cruz would break even with women, independents, AND get 45 percent of the Latino vote is out of line with all other data. Show me another poll like this and I'll take it more seriously but this is a huge shift from a lot of relatively recent polls without much changing.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

The Qpac poll had 35% Republican and 26% Democratic respondents in case you need to know where the 9% difference comes from. This is still a GOTV exercise.

Likely voter polls do not account for new and unlikely voters. If you only let people vote who voted in 2016 and 2014, of course Cruz would win.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, horncyclist said:
30 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:
They scale to population. They don’t just use their raw numbers.  

Could you explain scale to population?

Scale to known party affiliation numbers state wide.  So if they get a 50% R sample, but the population is 55% they weigh those responses heavier.  They do this on a ton of axes.  Too many women?  Decrease the importance of those answers.  Too many Jewish folks? Decrease those.  Too few country folk? Weigh those heavier.  Etc.  The better they are at this, the better the poll. 

 

ETA: (I think this ones only entry question was party affiliation so that is the only known scaling factor.  Could also be landline / cellular, time of day, whatever info they could get out of that)

Edited by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RayDog said:

The Qpac poll had 35% Republican and 26% Democratic respondents in case you need to know where the 9% difference comes from. This is still a GOTV exercise.

Likely voter polls do not account for new and unlikely voters. If you only let people vote who voted in 2016 and 2014, of course Cruz would win.

Should they poll 50/50 R/D in Texas in your opinion?

Quote

The 2016 United States presidential election in Texaswas won by Republican Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence by a 9% margin over Democrats Hillary Clintonand Tim Kaine, part of the November 8, 2016 General Election. Texas assigns its 38 Electoral College votes to the state's popular vote winner, but two faithless electors chose other candidates, making Texas the only state in 2016 to give Trump fewer than the assigned electoral votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas,_2016

 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21003

Posted
Posted

I am curious about that - what it means in that poll to get R respondents vs D respondents and what numbers they are using to scale.  Registered republicans statewide as of last election?  Now?  I assume an R in that poll means that someone responded and identified as a republican?  I assume that they know what they are doing and don't see that poll as anything but bad news for Beto, but it seems like a difficult atmosphere to poll.  I registered as a democrat for the first time when voting for Beto in the primary, and really paused before doing so.

Cruz would support Kavanaugh even if there was verifiable proof, no worries for you vote MH.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I am curious about that - what it means in that poll to get R respondents vs D respondents and what numbers they are using to scale.  Registered republicans statewide as of last election?  Now?  I assume an R in that poll means that someone responded and identified as a republican?  I assume that they know what they are doing and don't see that poll as anything but bad news for Beto, but it seems like a difficult atmosphere to poll.  I registered as a democrat for the first time when voting for Beto in the primary, and really paused before doing so.

Cruz would support Kavanaugh even if there was verifiable proof, no worries for you vote MH.

I agree that this is a tough time to scale.  1 census was long ago 2 populations in Texas are changing faster than anywhere 3 political climate where people are switching parties faster than ever 4 super excited voters who you can’t really tell how many are going to vote.  

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

Posted
Posted

It seems like they have to extrapolate the weights of each response based on past voting trends. In the past the likely voters turn out and the unlikely ones don’t. It’s been the same for 30 years in Texas. If Beto is able to bring young/unlikely voters into the fold, I don’t see how polls like this will be very accurate.

Dont get me wrong, relying on people that never vote to vote for you is a strategy that you don’t take unless you are a democrat running for statewide election in Texas. But, the one thing I keep bringing up is the number of potential voters on the sidelines in Texas. Our turnout rate is bottom 5. The votes are out there and Beto is the type of guy that can go get them. Likely voter polls will skew towards Cruz. Election Day/early voting GOTV will skew towards Beto. Election night will be interesting.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

Eligible voters are about 50/50 by demographics in Texas. I have not seen new numbers on registered voters but about a million more potential Democrats registered in 2016 than Republicans. I suspect that registered voters are approaching 50/50 in 2018. Based on trends the percentage of actual Democratic voters is going up about 1% a year.

We also know from polling that about 10% of Republicans have left the party in the past two years with many planning to vote Democratic so any poll that fails to adjust for that is no good. 

Putting that all together if I were a pollster I would try to get 0 - 3% more Republicans in my Texas poll.

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

Posted
Posted

https://politics.theonion.com/ted-cruz-attempts-to-connect-with-voters-by-wearing-mor-1829151503


Ted Cruz Attempts To Connect With Voters By Wearing More Handsome Man’s Face As Mask

Yesterday 4:15pm

SEE MORE: TED CRUZ

[https://i]

DALLAS—In an effort to make himself more appealing to voters, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) reportedly tried to connect with the audience at a candidate forum Tuesday by wearing the bloody, skinned face of a far more handsome man as a mask. “People are really responding to this new, dapper Ted Cruz,” said campaign manager Jeff Roe, noting that recent internal polls show that since Cruz adopted the new look, voters are twice as likely to describe the expressionless, gore-covered incumbent as “trustworthy,” “affable,” or “charming.” “That rough-cut mask of rotting skin is doing wonders for the senator on the campaign trail. He’s honestly never looked better, and the voters are really beginning to take notice. Even with the stench of decomposition, most people we talk to remark upon how Sen. Cruz doesn’t make them feel as nauseous as he used to. He’s looking a lot healthier, too.” Roe later confirmed that while Cruz’s current mask was rapidly decaying, the candidate had a freezer filled with enough handsome and blood-encrusted masks of human skin to last him through the campaign’s final stretch.


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Celery Man

Celery Man 21003

Posted
Posted (edited)

New poll with the opposite result, puts Beto in the lead

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/

I'm not going crazy with that given the other one is Quinnipiac.  But still, I'll take some good news.

Fun part - 

Quote

Ipsos is trying to gauge political enthusiasm on each side, said Jackson. The poll asked respondents to estimate the likelihood that they’d vote in the midterm elections on a scale from one to 10. “More Democrats are registering at the highest part of the scale, at the 10, than the Republicans,” Jackson said. And that’s what’s interesting, he said, because Republicans usually have the momentum advantage in Texas.

 

grain of salt part

Quote

The poll also questioned voters about the Texas gubernatorial election and found that Gov. Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger, Lupe Valdez, by 5 percent. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they’d vote for neither candidate.

no fucking way abbott only has a 5 point lead

Edited by Celery Man
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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

New poll with the opposite result, puts Beto in the lead

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/

I'm not going crazy with that given the other one is Quinnipiac.  But still, I'll take some good news.

Fun part - 

 

grain of salt part

no fucking way abbott only has a 5 point lead

I think Abbott will do about 8-10 points better than Cruz. I don't see too many more people splitting there ticket between those races.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12396

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

New poll with the opposite result, puts Beto in the lead

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/

I'm not going crazy with that given the other one is Quinnipiac.  But still, I'll take some good news.

Fun part - 

 

grain of salt part

no fucking way abbott only has a 5 point lead

Another online poll - it means next to nothing.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27606

Posted
Posted (edited)
From the link through
 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll was conducted online, in English, from Sept. 5 to 17. It surveyed between 992 and 1,039 people in each of five states including California and weighted the responses according to the latest government population estimates.
Edited by cactusflinthead
Mo info
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Js1

Js1 85602

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

It is the only way to reach a significant percentage of likely Beto voters.

If you take the 2 combined, it's Cruz +3.5 which is....

About what most people think it is, both nationally and in Texas.  Cruz is definitely campaigning like he's only up 3.5 and not 9.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:
From the link through
 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll was conducted online, in English, from Sept. 5 to 17. It surveyed between 992 and 1,039 people in each of five states including California and weighted the responses according to the latest government population estimates.

538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 

 

Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

Edited by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27606

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 

 

Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

Yeah, I wanted to see if it was the same LV set of voters and there's no mention of it. 

I am not as worried about SD-19 being a harbinger. Gallego had already lost twice. It sucks but stop trying to run a guy that has gotten beaten. Pete might be a good guy but the voters ain't buying what he's selling.

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