Jump to content

Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 

 

Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

Quinnipiac was 35R, 26D, 33I (R+9)

Ipsos was 47R, 43D, 9I (R+4)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 13.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Yeah, I wanted to see if it was the same LV set of voters and there's no mention of it. 

I am not as worried about SD-19 being a harbinger. Gallego had already lost twice. It sucks but stop trying to run a guy that has gotten beaten. Pete might be a good guy but the voters ain't buying what he's selling.

I may be head in the sand, but I just see it as an off-schedule election where GOTV is literally the only thing that matters.  It looks like the Rs put a lot of effort into it.

 

Of course, my inner hypocrite knows that if the result was the opposite, I'd be nodding sagely saying storm's a brewin'.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I am not as worried about SD-19 being a harbinger. Gallego had already lost twice. It sucks but stop trying to run a guy that has gotten beaten. Pete might be a good guy but the voters ain't buying what he's selling.

I am only worried in the sense that Beto and Gina Ortiz Jones need to figure out how to get Hispanics to the polls.  They didn't show up for Gallego.  Will they show up for an O'Rourke and Jones?

Otherwise, Hurd wins a 3rd term and Beto gets stomped.

Edited by Js1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

Posted
Posted

 

49 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 

 

Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

I don't know that it's weird.  Along the way, you should have some outliers.  When everybody shows a race as R+4 or D+5, that's when I would get worried.  It means the pollsters aren't trusting their data and are herding.

1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

New poll with the opposite result, puts Beto in the lead

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/

I'm not going crazy with that given the other one is Quinnipiac.  But still, I'll take some good news.

Fun part - 

 

grain of salt part

no fucking way abbott only has a 5 point lead

I don't know where the Trib is getting that.  The poll itself has Abbott 50% Valdez 41%, which seems fairly plausible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13410

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

FWIW, R just won State Senate Dist. 19

The previous officeholder (D) was found guilty of bribery so it's not a surprise that the seat flipped.  But whatever the reason this was a big pickup for the Republicans.  Their super majority was viewed as in danger and this helps to lock it down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
scottsins

scottsins 1953

Posted
Posted
I'm not loving seeing a lot of the big 4' x 4' Beto signs where I live (Allen) zip tied side by side with Lupe Valdez signs like they're a package deal.  Not that I have anything against her, but that's just not going to help him.  

 

So what? It isn’t hurting Beto either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13410

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, threesheets said:

I'm not loving seeing a lot of the big 4' x 4' Beto signs where I live (Allen) zip tied side by side with Lupe Valdez signs like they're a package deal.  Not that I have anything against her, but that's just not going to help him.  

The Texas Dem Party looks to be unsure of how to handle Beto's surge and may actually hurt him by literally tying him to their other Dem statewide candidates who zero chance of winning their elections.   However in some parts of the state (e.g. Valley) this could help Beto.  Walking a fine line.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
troph

troph 24562

Posted
Posted
538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 
 
Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

Good info re their scores. I think the wide margin is indicative of old patterns and new and Beto is all in on the new - young voters and texting for votes and dollars. I think the methodologies are difficult to stabilize and get really accurate numbers. I think Cruz +5 to Beto +3 is a realistic range for a vote today and who knows from there. It really will be GOTV and that alone for the win. Both sides have enough support to win - and THAT is the silver lining. The Dem has enough support to win. Hallelujah!!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89409

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Celery Man said:

I am curious about that - what it means in that poll to get R respondents vs D respondents and what numbers they are using to scale.  Registered republicans statewide as of last election?  Now?  I assume an R in that poll means that someone responded and identified as a republican?  I assume that they know what they are doing and don't see that poll as anything but bad news for Beto, but it seems like a difficult atmosphere to poll.  I registered as a democrat for the first time when voting for Beto in the primary, and really paused before doing so.

For example, if you were an African-American Democrat, they might scale your response to be 60% of say a white Republican. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Your Mom

Your Mom 4793

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas Dem Party looks to be unsure of how to handle Beto's surge and may actually hurt him by literally tying him to their other Dem statewide candidates who zero chance of winning their elections.   However in some parts of the state (e.g. Valley) this could help Beto.  Walking a fine line.

Yeah this makes me uncomfortable.  For now I'd like to see Beto on an island.  I'm not real keen on lumping him in with a bunch of democrats who have historically had a hard time in this state.  He has worked hard to stand out against the norm.  Let him keep it that way.  At least until he wins, then tie as many to him as he wants.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Yeah this makes me uncomfortable.  For now I'd like to see Beto on an island.  I'm not real keen on lumping him in with a bunch of democrats who have historically had a hard time in this state.  He has worked hard to stand out against the norm.  Let him keep it that way.  At least until he wins, then tie as many to him as he wants.  

Yup, this. Went to a Beers for Beto thing a few weeks back in Midland and there was some dude there running for county commissioner or somesuch. Dude couldn't even bother to put on a clean shirt, nearly looked like a homeless man, but he's putting on a stump speech at the Beto event. This guy has 0.00% chance of winning anything in Midland County, but there he was. Felt like a waste of time and potential dilution of the message to be tying that guy to Beto and I'd rather not see that sort of thing right now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32694

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just the way TRP likes it 

 

It's fucking embarrassing, especially when you consider that Maine's turnout isn't exactly something to be proud of. In my opinion any turnout lower than 75% is pitiful in a representative democracy. Maine was highest in 2014 with a 58.1% voter turnout.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
Just now, Huckleberry said:

It's fucking embarrassing, especially when you consider that Maine's turnout isn't exactly something to be proud of. In my opinion any turnout lower than 75% is pitiful in a representative democracy. Maine was highest in 2014 with a 58.1% voter turnout.

Got into an argument with some drunk Aussie a few weeks ago, slurring at me how Australia, by virtue of compulsory voting if you're registered, is more democratic than the U.S.

I had no disagreements. You register, you vote, or you get fined.  Even if you show up, submit a blank ballot, and walk out - you fucking participated.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shnsajax

shnsajax 3589

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

It's fucking embarrassing, especially when you consider that Maine's turnout isn't exactly something to be proud of. In my opinion any turnout lower than 75% is pitiful in a representative democracy. Maine was highest in 2014 with a 58.1% voter turnout.

At least Maine could use shitty weather as an excuse in November.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104558

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Comparing that chart with this one

Turnout_by_educ.png

you could conclude that virtually no one in Texas graduated from high school.

1.  Well, when you consider that one of our two biggest universities is Texas A&M.....

2.  Back in the 80s, I'm pretty sure I had a pair of socks that looked exactly like that chart.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

I don't know that it's weird.  Along the way, you should have some outliers.  When everybody shows a race as R+4 or D+5, that's when I would get worried.  It means the pollsters aren't trusting their data and are herding.

I don't know where the Trib is getting that.  The poll itself has Abbott 50% Valdez 41%, which seems fairly plausible.

You really think It’s plausible that Abbott is only up single digits?  There’s no fucking way Abbott wins by less than 10 points. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

Posted
Posted
Just now, GRHorn said:

You really think It’s plausible that Abbott is only up single digits?  There’s no fucking way Abbott wins by less than 10 points. 

With 9% undecided--yeah, I think that's plausible.  I think it's low, but it's plausible.

I expect Abbott to win along the lines of 57-40.  This poll isn't wildly inconsistent with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

With 9% undecided--yeah, I think that's plausible.  I think it's low, but it's plausible.

I expect Abbott to win along the lines of 57-40.  This poll isn't wildly inconsistent with that.

I’d put a less than 5% chance of being in single digits, therefore any other results from a poll that spits that out are very suspect imo. Makes for a good headline though. Should help limit R complacency. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

I’d put a less than 5% chance of being in single digits, therefore any other results from a poll that spits that out are very suspect imo. Makes for a good headline though. Should help limit R complacency. 

You're saying two different things.  You're saying that the poll should be predictive.  It's not intended to be.  Polls give you a snapshot of what the race is like today.  What it will be in six weeks is a different issue.  

The snapshot today is that Abbott is pretty comfortable, by virtue of having majority support.  And his margin is outside the margin of error.  So if the race were held today, he would win, barring a polling error.

From a purely predictive standpoint, there is relatively little uncertainty in this race, owing to the relatively low number of undecideds.  So to the extent we use this as a predictive tool, we can comfortably say that Abbott is very likely to win.

So with which of those conclusions do you disagree?

And by the way--nothing's going to help with R complacency.  Because they're so anti-science and anti-information, they just listen to their orange god.  "Red Wave!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10681

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas Dem Party looks to be unsure of how to handle Beto's surge and may actually hurt him by literally tying him to their other Dem statewide candidates who zero chance of winning their elections.   However in some parts of the state (e.g. Valley) this could help Beto.  Walking a fine line.

Bullshit, most people are just gonna vote straight ticket. I dont even have to know her name.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23393

Posted
Posted (edited)

Drove up to Dallas today. Took 281. Saw cruz signs, no Beto signs through burnet and lampasas. Hit a whole slew of Beto in Hico. Or maybe it was Hamilton. Just kinda jumped out. Saw more Cruz signs on that drive than I have in all of Austin area. And the count was low either way. 

Edited by Anastasis
Link to comment
Share on other sites
creeper

creeper 98

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Drove up to Dallas today. Took 281. Saw cruz signs, no Beto signs through burnet and lampasas. Hit a whole slew of Beto in Hico. Or maybe it was Hamilton. Just kinda jumped out. Saw more Cruz signs on that drive than I have in all of Austin area. And the count was low either way. 

Likely Hamilton.  Surprisingly strong Beto support there, at least based on Town Hall results.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...