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Posted
8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Cruz is just a polished Trump.  The Russians would have run their same game with Cruz (but Cruz wouldn’t have conspired) and you wouldn’t have the Access Hollywood Video disaster.  

Also important to remember the big money, NRA, and Cambridge Analytica were with Cruz way before Trump.

Moreover, Cruz has been running against Hillary his entire political career.

Cruz was better positioned to beat Hillary than Trump.

 

As hard as it is to understand, millions of people love Trump. Nobody loves Ted, not even his own children.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Cruz is just a polished Trump.  The Russians would have run their same game with Cruz (but Cruz wouldn’t have conspired) and you wouldn’t have the Access Hollywood Video disaster.  

Also important to remember the big money, NRA, and Cambridge Analytica were with Cruz way before Trump.

Moreover, Cruz has been running against Hillary his entire political career.

Cruz was better positioned to beat Hillary than Trump.

 

Trump being unpolished is why he was appealing to the unwashed masses.

They aren't going to turn out for career politician ivy league smarmy Ted.  Not in the way they did for Trump.  NRA and big money were going to be with any Republican who ran. Same with evangelicals.

Edited by Js1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trump being unpolished is why he was appealing to the unwashed masses.

They aren't going to turn out for career politician ivy league smarmy Ted.  Not in the way they did for Trump.  NRA and big money were going to be with any Republican who ran. Same with evangelicals.

Can you pull up some pictures of people that vote for Ted Cruz please?

Posted
4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

As hard as it is to understand, millions of people love Trump. Nobody loves Ted, not even his own children.

Yet millions of people vote for Cruz.

and Ted Cruz WON IOWA against Trump and a dozen others.

The same machine that made Trump a cult leader would have done the exact same thing for Cruz.

Objectively, Trump is far more disgusting, ignorant, and vile than Cruz.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yet millions of people vote for Cruz.

and Ted Cruz WON IOWA against Trump and a dozen others.

The same machine that made Trump a cult leader would have done the exact same thing for Cruz.

Objectively, Trump is far more disgusting, ignorant, and vile than Cruz.

That was his appeal. 

Cruz doesn't have the charisma Trump does. Trump may be the biggest sack of orange shit to occupy the White House or step foot in DC, but he has charisma that Ted does not.  He would have looked like such a smarmy douche in the debates against Hillary. 

"Wrong"

"You're the puppet"

Things Ted could not pull off.

Posted
1 hour ago, slorch said:

It isn't "forward thinking"  to restrict the liberty of those white men who otherwise kinda obey the law when it suits their needs.

 

1

fixed

Posted
36 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yet millions of people vote for Cruz.

and Ted Cruz WON IOWA against Trump and a dozen others.

The same machine that made Trump a cult leader would have done the exact same thing for Cruz.

Objectively, Trump is far more disgusting, ignorant, and vile than Cruz.

That’s not really how it works. The candidate still matters. Obama’s 2008 campaign machine couldn’t have turned Hillary into someone half as likeable as Obama. The GOP/Russia machine couldn’t have transformed Ted into something resembling an actual human being.

Posted
28 minutes ago, relapse98 said:

The Drinkin/Donation Game for tonight's debate from Beto's campaign.

They got some good ones in there, the light blue shirt, talking about Ulysses, Ted saying liberal and socialist, stage wispers, Ted trying to make a joke.

 

Ted saying "liberal"  and "socialist"  will pretty much put under.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That was his appeal. 

Cruz doesn't have the charisma Trump does. Trump may be the biggest sack of orange shit to occupy the White House or step foot in DC, but he has charisma that Ted does not.  He would have looked like such a smarmy douche in the debates against Hillary. 

"Wrong"

"You're the puppet"

Things Ted could not pull off.

I know I’m not going to convince you on this and while Trump has more natural charisma than Cruz, you have to consider the advantages Cruz had over Trump.

Evangelicals? Cruz has more appeal

Supreme Court nominations? Advantage Cruz

Consistent stance on Abortion?  Cruz

Political experience? Cruz

General fitness for office? Cruz

Anti-establishment appeal? It’s a push

Self inflicted wounds? Trump has more

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The GOP/Russia machine couldn’t have transformed Ted into something resembling an actual human being.

They GOP/Russia machine would have still made Hillary evil incarnate.

The majority of Trump voters didn’t vote for Trump because he was a good choice.  

They voted because Trump wasn’t Hillary Clinton.  They were driven to the polls by hate and fear of Hillary way more than any love for Trump.  I don’t think this is very difficult to prove/argue.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s really speaks to Cruz’s brilliance as a politician that he can be so unliked yet so successful politically.

No, it speaks to how fucked up the voting public of Texas is.  Let's not overlook the obvious.

Posted
1 hour ago, slorch said:

because you aren't the only one using the roadways.  Your driving affects others.

My possession of a firearm in no way affects you.  My misuse of it might, and therein lies the issue.  I believe in prosecuting the fuck out of crimes committed with guns.  It's not that I believe in permitting someone to do whatever they want with a gun when it impacts others.

 

This is but one of many "gives and takes" should I choose Beto, with an emphasis on the GIVE.

Its actually my misuse of driving that affects others.  Germany seems to do ok without speed limits on some roads, but we somehow have rationalized that we aren't good enough for it.  And you are ok with that, at least when it comes to speeding.  Why does that not extend to other areas, like guns?

Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No, it speaks to how fucked up the voting public of Texas is.  Let's not overlook the obvious.

Well yes, but the fact an Ivy League Canadian named Rafael with no charisma can have statewide success in Texas is a remarkable political accomplishment. 

It demonstrates his ability to transform himself to mass political appeal.

Savvy AF

Posted

No it doesn't.

He has a fucking R next to his name and ran against a pretty blasé moderate in The Dew with Tea Party help to get a run-off win.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No it doesn't.

He has a fucking R next to his name and ran against a pretty blasé moderate in The Dew with Tea Party help to get a run-off win.

How do you explain him winning Iowa and coming in 2nd in the GOP primaries? 

Posted
1 hour ago, slorch said:

because you aren't the only one using the roadways.  Your driving affects others.

My possession of a firearm in no way affects you.  My misuse of it might, and therein lies the issue.  I believe in prosecuting the fuck out of crimes committed with guns.  It's not that I believe in permitting someone to do whatever they want with a gun when it impacts others.

 

This is but one of many "gives and takes" should I choose Beto, with an emphasis on the GIVE.

You aren’t the only one using firearms. The way you use your firearm has the potential to affect others.

My possession of a car in no way affects you. My misuse of it might and therein lies the issue.

Mental gymnastics.

  • Like 3
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Evangelicals and personal ground game.

Republican_Party_presidential_primary_re

 

This is the 2016 GOP primary map.

Trump is in blue, Cruz in piss color. 

Can we at least agree Cruz would have been the GOP nominee if Trump didn’t run? 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Republican_Party_presidential_primary_re

 

This is the 2016 GOP primary map.

Trump is in blue, Cruz in piss color. 

Can we at least agree Cruz would have been the GOP nominee if Trump didn’t run? 

If Trump didn't run, then all bets are off how the race would have played out.  Maybe Cruz would have won, but then again Trump knocked out many of the other candidates not Cruz.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Dropout said:

You aren’t the only one using firearms. The way you use your firearm has the potential to affect others.

My possession of a car in no way affects you. My misuse of it might and therein lies the issue.

Mental gymnastics.

When am I using my firearms in public?  Never.

Drive your car as fast as you want on your private track.

 

mental gymnastics, indeed.

Edited by slorch
Posted
13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Republican_Party_presidential_primary_re

 

This is the 2016 GOP primary map.

Trump is in blue, Cruz in piss color. 

Can we at least agree Cruz would have been the GOP nominee if Trump didn’t run? 

Nope. Argument invalid.

Screen_Shot_2017-08-17_at_3.57.59_PM.jpg

  • Haha 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Trump didn't run, then all bets are off how the race would have played out.  Maybe Cruz would have won, but then again Trump knocked out many of the other candidates not Cruz.

Yeah we’ll never know but I think Trump stole more people that would have voted for Cruz if you took Trump out of the equation.  

Posted
50 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Its actually my misuse of driving that affects others.  Germany seems to do ok without speed limits on some roads, but we somehow have rationalized that we aren't good enough for it.  And you are ok with that, at least when it comes to speeding.  Why does that not extend to other areas, like guns?

My possession of a fast car doesn’t impact you.  Driving it 100 down Westheimer might.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

 

 

 

 

Is this still the Cruz vs Beto thread?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes.  Just a tangent of how there are several “gives” on policy when it comes to a conservative considering voting for Beto.

Posted
4 minutes ago, slorch said:

When am I using my firearms in public?

Why does that matter?

Some things we regulate that aren't used in public:

* construction of homes

* what purposes you can use your property for (e.g., having farm animals or running a business out of your home)

* fire ordinances (e.g., you can't light stuff in your lawn on fire)

* drug possession

 

You could argue that each of those things affect only you unless misused in some way. So why should we regulate them? So long as you don't fuck up and burn down the city, why should you be restricted in lighting a couch on fire in your lawn? So long as they stay on your property, why shouldn't you be allowed to have cattle in your home? Why worry about building ordinances, you should be able to build your house however you want?

Turns out, society gets to meddle in our private lives in all sorts of ways. Gun ownership shouldn't be any different.  

 

Posted
22 minutes ago, slorch said:

My possession of a fast car doesn’t impact you.  Driving it 100 down Westheimer might.

But it only might.  It might not.  Same is true of guns.  My AR15 doesn't affect you, me using it to rob a store might affect you, but it also might not.  

Posted
43 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Republican_Party_presidential_primary_re

 

This is the 2016 GOP primary map.

Trump is in blue, Cruz in piss color. 

Can we at least agree Cruz would have been the GOP nominee if Trump didn’t run? 

 

36 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Trump didn't run, then all bets are off how the race would have played out.  Maybe Cruz would have won, but then again Trump knocked out many of the other candidates not Cruz.

Yeah, I don't see the majority of Trump voters flipping to Cruz, especially California and the Northeast.  I don't think the Deep South votes Cruz either.  I think Kasich or Rubio wins if Trump doesn't run, and I'd bet on Kasich in that scenario because he is the only one that could pick up the ethnonationalists in Trump's base.  I'm not sure the trade war part of his base even votes in the GOP primary without Trump.  Cruz just about hit his ceiling in 2016 in spite of Trump running.

Posted

I heard this segment on NPR yesterday. Here are a few excerpts.

"as the two candidates prepare to meet for their first debate Friday night, voter registration data suggests O'Rourke's campaign and Texas Democrats may not be pulling in enough new voters to offset Republicans' structural advantages in the state."

"In Texas' urban counties and the heavily-Latino counties in the Rio Grande Valley, there's no surge of new Latino voters, according to voter registration data.

Since 2016, there have been single digit percentage increases in the number of new voters around the state's four biggest cities of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin. In the heavily-Latino Bexar County where San Antonio is located, voter registration totals have grown by less than 3 percent since 2016."

"Only 54 percent of Hispanic voters backed O'Rourke according to recent Quinnipiac University poll, while 45 percent supported Cruz, whose father is Cuban although he doesn't speak Spanish."

 

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/21/649859267/the-biggest-hurdle-for-beto-orourke-in-texas-is-turning-out-latino-voters

 

Posted

I agree that Beto needs to get a high turnout, especially in cities and Valley, but is it really expected to see registration increases for an off-Presidential campaign?  I would assume it would be a given that fewer people register at that time.

Posted
17 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Correct. 2016 election was in ways a referendum on the Supreme Court so the more it’s played up, the more it benefits Cruz. Run of the mill R wants Supreme Court over just about anything. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Correct. 2016 election was in ways a referendum on the Supreme Court so the more it’s played up, the more it benefits Cruz. Run of the mill R wants Supreme Court over just about anything. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-opposition-kavanaugh-s-confirmation-grows-n911581

Brett Kavanaugh is first Supreme Court nominee below water in the history of the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

  • Like 1
Posted
14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Beto needs to get a high turnout, especially in cities and Valley, but is it really expected to see registration increases for an off-Presidential campaign?  I would assume it would be a given that fewer people register at that time.

The concept of a Blue Wave in Texas is predicated on the idea of a registration increase for the 2018 midterms. I don't see how the Democrats can make a real dent within it.

  • Like 1
Posted
3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Cruz is easily one of the most unlikable politicians of my life time.  I've never seen anything like it.  He has actively negative charisma.  I honestly think that's the biggest issue here.  He's being challenged by his polar opposite on the charisma scale.  You can actively hate O'rourke's politics, but he's charming as hell.

So was Bill Clinton, that's not necessarily a good thing, but charm will take you a long, long way in politics.

Do you consider a dog to be a filthy animal?

Dogs are different. Dogs' got personality.

So, if a pig had personality, he would cease to be a filthy animal?

Posted

Yeah, those registration numbers are problematic.  Beto's path to victory probably lies with disaffected suburban GOP voters who hate Trump and Cruz. I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.

Posted (edited)

Fuck that. New registers are important, but I'm hard pressed to believe that this Beto movement aren't getting NEW MIDTERM VOTERS to the polls. Such as myself, my wife, my parents and siblings ... hell, my whole fuckin block. I sincerely doubt i live within a three block radius of anyone who voted last midterms and its Beto central all over it right now.

Edited by Bottlecap
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