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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Yeah, those registration numbers are problematic.  Beto's path to victory probably lies with disaffected suburban GOP voters who hate Trump and Cruz. I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.

it's a horrible strategy

He's going to lose. The Dems will pour all their money into him and ignore downballot. The Dems will lose those, too, because they aren't investing in them. They won't have a bench in Texas.

Dems are garbage.

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

it's a horrible strategy

He's going to lose. The Dems will pour all their money into him and ignore downballot. The Dems will lose those, too, because they aren't investing in them. They won't have a bench in Texas.

Dems are garbage.

 

What are Republicans?

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

it's a horrible strategy

He's going to lose. The Dems will pour all their money into him and ignore downballot. The Dems will lose those, too, because they aren't investing in them. They won't have a bench in Texas.

Dems are garbage.

You think Dems aren't pouring money into TX07 and TX32?  You need to check out the campaign finance reports.

There's no statewide organization.  That's for damned sure.  And Lupe Valdez is a terrible candidate.  But downballot isn't being ignored by donors.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted

Ain't wasting my time arguing with either slorch or bt. Neither one is going to move from their opinions.

Sessions just got another influx of dollars because they are scared. 

Culberson might be the most endangered.

I doubt slorch would vote for Manchin. Who knows? I don't particularly give a shit about it. He ain't the target.

bt is a contrarian. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
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43 minutes ago, F250 said:

The concept of a Blue Wave in Texas is predicated on the idea of a registration increase for the 2018 midterms. I don't see how the Democrats can make a real dent within it.

Who has proclaimed a Blue Wave in Texas?  Outside of Beto/Cruz, there is talk of a couple GOP state and national incumbents in danger and that's it.   You're making up a concept of a Texas Blue Wave.

but I agree that if the Dems expect Abbott to lose, they will most likely need to register a few million new voters.   You're spot on.  However no one ever spoke to that result. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

bt is a contrarian. 

Yeah, I'm contrarian. I see 10:1 Beto:Fletcher signs in my district. I talk to people all the time who are gung-ho Beto but either don't know anything about down-ballot or explicitly say they don't want to be straight ticket voters (Beto top, Republican all the rest). Some of the people organizing for Beto right now, in fact.

Look, I'd LOVE to be wrong, I'd love it. I'd love to see a cleansing wave of blue progressivism sweep across the state, but I don't see any of the priors actually changed.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26444

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Well yes, but the fact an Ivy League Canadian named Rafael with no charisma can have statewide success in Texas is a remarkable political accomplishment. 

It demonstrates his ability to transform himself to mass political appeal.

Savvy AF

It's really an example of how you don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other guy. He beat a VERY establishment Republican David Dewhurst at the peak of the Tea party movement and since there is no Texas Democratic party, he got to be in the Senate. As an incumbent this year he faced no primary challenger, so the question is whether Beto O'Rourke can win the Senate seat as a Democrat working against a natural 15-20 point break without a state party organization coordinating behind him. 
Ted Cruz doesn't have and doesn't need "mass political appeal" to win. He needs GOP money, GOP loyalty, and GOP organization. Beto O'Rourke needs mass political appeal. And he has some, but my guess is not enough. 

 

Strongly partisan populations tend to not produce the best candidates of their party, but rather the worst candidates their partisans are willing to accept. In a one party dominant state with narrow margins like Texas and Alabama, that usually means you have shitty incumbents with great machines matching up against decent candidates with no machine. Machines usually beat people. That's politics.  

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Yeah, I'm contrarian. I see 10:1 Beto:Fletcher signs in my district. I talk to people all the time who are gung-ho Beto but either don't know anything about down-ballot or explicitly say they don't want to be straight ticket voters (Beto top, Republican all the rest). Some of the people organizing for Beto right now, in fact.

Look, I'd LOVE to be wrong, I'd love it. I'd love to see a cleansing wave of blue progressivism sweep across the state, but I don't see any of the priors actually changed.

It is going to take more than Beto. True. It's going to take moving that 30% number of participants in the process. MJ is running a decent campaign. Allred is doing the same. Neither one was on the bench previous rounds. 

Lupe Valdez is doing what? Not a got dam thing. 

It is a combination of many factors that determine an election, but even with money you gotta work to GOTV. That's all that matters. That's the mantra I see locally and nationally. Nobody running in Texas as a Democrat goes into it expecting an easy ride into office outside of the safe seats. Beto was a long shot. The odds have gotten better.  All you can do is keep working and hope for the best.

Gohmert keeps winning Tyler and the Pine Curtain. I have no idea who is running against him and I am an unrepentant political junkie. That's bad. Surely there's gotta be Somebody in the whole of that district with a better plan than the unknown person running now. 

The women we holler about in the thread of Lulz are going to be the leverage. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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Posted

If the Democrats actually had a message and platform they could win. But they don't have one, so they can't.

GOTV only gets you so for. You have to have a product to sell, not just salesmen.

Beto is an attractive guy with cool signs who says good stuff and is likeable. Great product.

What's left to sell? Certainly not a platform. Dem victory requires a halo figure (Obama, Beto, etc...) because the Dems themselves do not sell the people on meaningful policy. 

Not to pick on Fletcher, but let's look at the issues...

- Civil Rights (nothing specific)

She could talk about cash bail or redistricting or any of the relevant issues, but... nothing. Because Dems don't stand for anything.

- Education (specifics? *crickets chirping*)

Free college. College loan forgiveness. Teacher raises. THIS IS EASY! THIS IS NOT ROCKET SURGERY!

- Healthcare (Hooray Obamacare!)

It's Medicare for Al... forget it, just lose already. You deserve it.

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F250

F250 28768

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Who has proclaimed a Blue Wave in Texas?  Outside of Beto/Cruz, there is talk of a couple GOP state and national incumbents in danger and that's it.   You're making up a concept of a Texas Blue Wave.

but I agree that if the Dems expect Abbott to lose, they will most likely need to register a few million new voters.   You're spot on.  However no one ever spoke to that result. 

I didn't make that claim, I was referencing the article I linked earlier today, "it's a ripple not a wave."

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

- Education (specifics? *crickets chirping*)

Free college. College loan forgiveness. Teacher raises. THIS IS EASY! THIS IS NOT ROCKET SURGERY!

 

These are State Senate and State Rep issues.  Mike Collier (Lt. Gov), Nathan Johnson (State Senate) and John Turner (State Rep) are all running hard on this issue, and it's not easy.  I was at a meeting with two of these and a roomful of teachers and the teachers seem to think that all of them are going to get raises with no correspondence performance expectations.  The US Congressional Races are important, but I'm fine with them being low on policy.  It's the fucking lunatics in state office who are fucking this state over and who need to be run out on a rail, and Collier, Johnson and Turner are running against lunatics. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

These are State Senate and State Rep issues.

They are also national issues. They are issues at all levels. It is also helpful to unify under a platform.

Quote

I was at a meeting with two of these and a roomful of teachers and the teachers seem to think that all of them are going to get raises with no correspondence performance expectations.

This is actually perfect.

Dem brain: "What do these fool teachers know about education? We need pay based on performance metrics!"

*sends kids to elite private school without standardized testing*

Edited by bad_teammate
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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Posted
8 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

You're a perfect idiot.

Good argument.

However, the elites and power brokers being unable to understand their constituency (and even be disdainful of them) is a hallmark symptom of a broken party. We talk about how cynical GOP power brokers can be in pandering to the gumps, but that's how the disgusting creeps in the Dem party machine feel about their core constituencies as well.

Representatives should be going to their people and asking, "What do you want?" and then doing what those people want. But nope... nope. We've got megabrain losers who hate the poor and working classes.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Good argument.

However, the elites and power brokers being unable to understand their constituency (and even be disdainful of them) is a hallmark symptom of a broken party. We talk about how cynical GOP power brokers can be in pandering to the gumps, but that's how the disgusting creeps in the Dem party machine feel about their core constituencies as well.

Representatives should be going to their people and asking, "What do you want?" and then doing what those people want. But nope... nope. We've got megabrain losers who hate the poor and working classes.

I've never believed in that form of representation. If we wanted the government to do whatever the people wanted, we should have instituted a true democracy. Instead we have representatives. And I think that is good. People (as a whole) are very good at knowing what they dislike about the world. People are very bad at knowing how to actually improve their situation. For instance, when I want my car repaired I don't poll the neighborhood on how to fix it, I take it to a mechanic. And when I have a medical problem, I see a doctor. Relying on the expertise of others isn't a bad thing. I expect our representatives to look past what people say they want, distill the desires, and then utilize experts and data to determine the best way to address the concerns of their constituents.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

If we wanted the government to do whatever the people wanted, we should have instituted a true democracy. Instead we have representatives. And I think that is good. People (as a whole) are very good at knowing what they dislike about the world. People are very bad at knowing how to actually improve their situation.

Well it's a good thing we don't elect people as representatives!

Quote

For instance, when I want my car repaired I don't poll the neighborhood on how to fix it, I take it to a mechanic.

How about when you want education fixed... do you talk to teachers?

Dem Brain: No no no, we talk to private industry consultants!

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Well it's a good thing we don't elect people as representatives!

How about when you want education fixed... do you talk to teachers?

Dem Brain: No no no, we talk to private industry consultants!

I would consult with teachers on how to educate, but not necessarily on how to pay for education. I'd certainly take their desire to be paid more into consideration, but that can hardly be the end of the analysis. Everyone wants to be paid more. But that doesn't mean that we should pay everyone more. Besides, I wasn't responding to your argument about teachers, but to your broader point that whatever the people want, the representatives should make it happen. 

And just to be clear, I ain't no Democrat. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I would consult with teachers on how to educate, but not necessarily on how to pay for education.

"How" to pay isn't the question. "How much" to pay is absolutely the question, and there is no group better than teachers to answer that question, because they're the ones who actually do it. They see, first hand, every day, what works and what doesn't.

Quote

Everyone wants to be paid more.

Not really. And that's certainly not a brush you can paint all professions with. GREEDY FUCKING TEACHERS!

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

"How" to pay isn't the question. "How much" to pay is absolutely the question, and there is no group better than teachers to answer that question, because they're the ones who actually do it. They see, first hand, every day, what works and what doesn't.

Not really. And that's certainly not a brush you can paint all professions with. GREEDY FUCKING TEACHERS!

I didn't say teachers were greedy. I said they, like everyone, would like more money. The logical extension of your suggestion is that the worker in every industry should be the sole expert and arbiter of how much they are paid. That is silly and ignores fundamental market dynamics. And, I'm not even disagreeing with your conclusion, I think teachers should be paid more. But, your approach as to why they should be paid more is simply not a workable economic or governmental model. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't say teachers were greedy. I said they, like everyone, would like more money.

Which would only manifest as a problem if their greed outweighed their reasoning regarding the wise use of public resources. It's the only way your comment is relevant.

Quote

The logical extension of your suggestion is that the worker in every industry should be the sole expert and arbiter of how much they are paid. That is silly ...

The argument you made up is silly, I agree. lol Christ

Quote

and ignores fundamental market dynamics. 

Education isn't a fucking market.

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