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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4814

Posted
Posted

I went to a Plan to Win organizational meeting today.  I am always amazed at how well organized and thought out this campaign is for Beto.  Reaching out for people to house  pop up offices for phone bankers and block walkers to work out of to cover the entire state.    Also said office managers and trainers for new volunteers.   These guys are certainly writing the book on how to put together a citizen based, grassroots campaign.   Extremely impressive.

Now it's down to getting the vote out. 

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2102

Posted
Posted
On 9/21/2018 at 10:47 AM, Js1 said:

Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

This statement seems disingenuous. It's a nice statement and all, but as it seems on this thread there is a lot of people who are tired of Trump and Cruz. Just seems not enough to really edge it out a victory for the dems. Me personally, I already Cruz lost favor when he went and became Trump's stool. 

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troph

troph 24783

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Posted
It’s by far Cruz’ biggest crowd (that’s been posted here at least) and it still pales in comparison.

But it also confirms his voters are out there. He has a built in minimum vote that’s higher than a solid reach by Beto. We HAVE to vote. All of us.
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Bookman

Bookman 4639

Posted
Posted
On 9/22/2018 at 7:47 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

2,600 counties to 480 counties voted for Trump. This country is more than LA and Manhattan. 

So those 2,600 counties voted for a corrupt, incompetent, immoral, failed-businessman turned reality TV star for President of the United States.

I think we've found our weakest links as a country.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26444

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Just the past weekend I’ve noticed a bunch of Cruz signs in both yards and in large public grassy areas while driving on main thoroughfares around my ‘hood. The question arises, why just now, when Beto has been dominating the sign game since day 1? I’m guessing fear?

The short answer here is yes. The somewhat longer answer has to do with the fact that Cruz never had to build a real ground game operation because of the Tea Party in 2012, consequently they are late to the party and all they can get are the expensive paid spots in the right of way because he doesn't really have a grassroots base.  
 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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relapse98

relapse98 634

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, ERhine said:

It’s by far Cruz’ biggest crowd (that’s been posted here at least) and it still pales in comparison.

He had an event indoors at the Dixie Grille in Seguin a few weeks ago. There were less than 100 people there. Such excitement surrounding the Canadian.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20934

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The short answer here is yes. The somewhat longer answer has to do with the fact that Cruz never had to build a real ground game operation because of the Tea Party in 2012, consequently they are late to the party and all they can get are the expensive paid spots in the right of way because he doesn't really have a grassroots base.  
 


Glad he’s making use of all his money from coastal elites and sexual predators
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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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Posted
33 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Just the past weekend I’ve noticed a bunch of Cruz signs in both yards and in large public grassy areas while driving on main thoroughfares around my ‘hood. The question arises, why just now, when Beto has been dominating the sign game since day 1? I’m guessing fear?

In terms of that large public grassy area, grab a Beto sign and put it up there.  There is a strip business center near me that I think isn't nearly fully occupied that had a large Pete Sessions sign.  I work close to Colin Allred's campaign headquarters so I nabbed on at put it up about ten yards in front of the Sessions sign and no one has taken it down.

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Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Saw my first Cruz signs in Midland yesterday while walking the dogs. Sign count - Beto 4, Cruz 2. Midland will still go 80% for Cruz, but it's nice to see a small bit of energy out here in depressingly bright red country for Beto.

But that's always been the goal - maybe Cruz only wins these rural counties with 70-75% while Beto wins Bexar, Harris, Dallas, Travis, El Paso counties with 60%+ to offset the rurals. Beto needs to do better than Sadler did in the valley (60ish%) and maybe bump that up to 70% and he has a chance.

Especially if Beto keeps the trend of flipping Fort Bend and Tarrant.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17670

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Posted
10 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think those sparse signs in super red areas are more important than the billion in blue areas.  When you see that it is ok to vote for someone because a neighbor is signaling it, you might change you vote.  tribal stuff.  It might change things from 90% Cruz to 70% in red Texas

This.  It's why I offered to buy signs for my rural relatives.  

Also made it out to the Greek Festival in Dallas this weekend with our Beto shirts.  We were getting a ton of positive responses, mostly from old folks who were whispering support and giving a thumbs up.  We told them to say it out loud and take three friends with them to the polls.  They liked that.   By the way, if you missed it, your loss.  They always have great food and a great time.  Greek coffee and melomakarona for the win!

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

This.  It's why I offered to buy signs for my rural relatives.  

Also made it out to the Greek Festival in Dallas this weekend with our Beto shirts.  We were getting a ton of positive responses, mostly from old folks who were whispering support and giving a thumbs up.  We told them to say it out loud and take three friends with them to the polls.  They liked that.   By the way, if you missed it, your loss.  They always have great food and a great time.  Greek coffee and melomakarona for the win!

that's my church. hope you enjoyed yourself. 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17670

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

that's my church. hope you enjoyed yourself. 

I did, we go every year.  And Chad Jr. absolutely loves the dancing and music.  So kudos to all involved.

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

lol how is it shady. northwood is right there with some really nice neighborhoods.

This?  I can see that there are some tired mid-century ranches going towards 75, but other than that, it's pretty nice.  

Doesn't matter.  Had lamb chops.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted
But that's always been the goal - maybe Cruz only wins these rural counties with 70-75% while Beto wins Bexar, Harris, Dallas, Travis, El Paso counties with 60%+ to offset the rurals. Beto needs to do better than Sadler did in the valley (60ish%) and maybe bump that up to 70% and he has a chance.
Especially if Beto keeps the trend of flipping Fort Bend and Tarrant.
Tarrant was still solidly for Trump, and if I recall has been a pretty good proxy for the state as a whole. If Beto outright flips Tarrant that signals a number of things that would point to him winning.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Tarrant was still solidly for Trump, and if I recall has been a pretty good proxy for the state as a whole. If Beto outright flips Tarrant that signals a number of things that would point to him winning.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Tarrant went to Trump with 51.7% of the vote. Romney won it with 57.1%. Cruz 56.7%.

Beto needs to win Fort Bend again and try to flip Tarrant (51.7% Trump), Williamson (51.3% Trump) and Collin (55.6% Trump).  He also needs Jefferson, where Trump flipped it.

Edited by Js1
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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted
Tarrant went to Trump with 51.7% of the vote. Romney won it with 57.1%. Cruz 56.7%.
Beto needs to win Fort Bend again and try to flip Tarrant (51.7% Trump), Williamson (51.3% Trump) and Collin (55.6% Trump).  He also needs Jefferson, where Trump flipped it.
Right. Trump was plus 8 or so in Tarrant with 51.7 percent of the vote. He was plus 9 statewide with 52 percent, so a pretty close proxy. Clinton only got in the low 40s in both. If Beto is able to flip a county that was still solidly R in 16 with similar voting trends relative to the state as a whole, it will because he gets the kind of turnout from new voters and independents that would be needed to push him to a win.

If he flips Tarrant he is winning in Ft Bend, Williamson, Jefferson, and Nueces Counties. In that case he would also cut into the margins in Bell, Brazos, Denton and Collin Counties (R +15-20). If that happens he wins each of the six biggest counties, and a minimum of eight of the top 10. Possibly all 10. If he does that there aren't enough big R strongholds to make up the deficit Cruz will face from the score being run up in Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Harris, and Travis. The valley would neutralize the Midland, Lubbock, and Amarillo bloc. We agree on where the key is, I'm just still skeptical bc of how kuch ground has to be made up.

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troph

troph 24783

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Posted

I’ve thought about that already and I think it will energize most. I think he’s once in a lifetime but his methods and the ability to win as a Dem are not. What the progressive movement in Texas needs is cash and activation. He’s done that. Folks will step up for 2020 I’m sure. After all Trump is on the ballot.

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Js1

Js1 85311

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53 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ve thought about that already and I think it will energize most. I think he’s once in a lifetime but his methods and the ability to win as a Dem are not. What the progressive movement in Texas needs is cash and activation. He’s done that. Folks will step up for 2020 I’m sure. After all Trump is on the ballot.

Yep.

Cash - check (money pouring in)

Activation - check (people care)

Down-ballot success - remains to be seen (Allred, Lizzie, and GOJ need to win to build a fucking bench)

A blueprint for being competitive - check (retail politics and total independence from the TDP)

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4814

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49 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ve thought about that already and I think it will energize most. I think he’s once in a lifetime but his methods and the ability to win as a Dem are not. What the progressive movement in Texas needs is cash and activation. He’s done that. Folks will step up for 2020 I’m sure. After all Trump is on the ballot.

I agree somewhat, but I think the Ds of Texas need more than cash and volunteers getting involved.

1) They need strong candidates like Beto

2) They need a strong organized state party that runs efficiently and has a reasonable but flexible platform.  In other words, a progressive platform with adaptability to cooperate across the aisle to get things done, instead of 'our way or stalemate.'

I think if you can provide the second, you will have more of the former step forward. 

I would hope that Beto and his campaign shake the complacency off so many Texas voters that win or lose for Beto, people see what could have been and begin to pressure for positive changes in the Tex Dem party.

 

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troph

troph 24783

Posted
Posted

I agree I was going to post about the need to transfer the machine to the state party and got bogged down in the deets. There are turf wars that will be fought that shouldn’t be fought and if that can work itself out the state Dems could move forward without much recreation. We will see.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13194

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Also it's interesting that nobody seems to think that it's a realistic alternative that this is a flash-in-the-pan event but instead a sea-change, whereas people aren;t going to revert back to morass and "who cares, we are a red state anyways" but instead this will charge a new reality and new world for Texas politics.

Oh I believe that EXACTLY.

Enthusiasm for a personality leader is always temporary. Genuine, long-lasting enthusiasm can only come from policy promises and policy action. The Dems do not have either of those things, so there will be nothing for them at the end of this but flashes in the pan.

The dream scenario for Dems in Texas is basically no real change aside from how nice/ethical the people at the top are. There is no commitment to single payer, no commitment to decriminalization of marijuana, no commitment to unions, no commitment to free education, no commitment to dismantling the police state in the city streets and at the border, no commitment to Planned Parenthood and other universal abortion access, no commitment to bringing the police to heel. They are very much about not ever committing to anything (see: "a reasonable but flexible platform" which is another way of saying, "uhhh... I don't know I just like being in office").

It's Hillary 2016 and they're going to be so shocked when they underperform their expectations. They will never, ever learn anything.

Decades of working as an organizer here have taught me that the Dems will never be able to resist the allure of the blonde suburban 40-year-old mom and they will never want to actually go talk to their black and brown base.

Edited by bad_teammate
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18854

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Posted
1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Oh I believe that EXACTLY.

Enthusiasm for a personality leader is always temporary. Genuine, long-lasting enthusiasm can only come from policy promises and policy action. The Dems do not have either of those things, so there will be nothing for them at the end of this but flashes in the pan.

The dream scenario for Dems in Texas is basically no real change aside from how nice/ethical the people at the top are. There is no commitment to single payer, no commitment to decriminalization of marijuana, no commitment to unions, no commitment to free education, no commitment to dismantling the police state in the city streets and at the border, no commitment to Planned Parenthood and other universal abortion access, no commitment to bringing the police to heel. They are very much about not ever committing to anything (see: "a reasonable but flexible platform" which is another way of saying, "uhhh... I don't know I just like being in office").

It's Hillary 2016 and they're going to be so shocked when they underperform their expectations. They will never, ever learn anything.

If Democrats could mount a competent GOTV campaign in Texas, this state would already be blue.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17670

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Posted
3 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Wait, the national socialist guys aren't passionate and all-in on Beto? Tepid approval it sounds like, at best....but then again, you guys are the fringe of the liberal/dem's anyways, so I guess that makes sense. I don't know that your type of candidate will ever be in play in Texas, but who knows, demographics shift very fast it seems.

You need to go back and read what this means.  

charlottesville-explainer-gty-jrl-180808

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troph

troph 24783

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Posted

It won’t be flash in the pan after the third cycle that’s closer than pre-trump. 2016, 2018 and 2020 all look like they will be much tighter than 2012 and 2014. Whether beto is special or not can be for another thread but the idea that this isn’t starting to show a pattern will be hard to support if 2020 is tighter too.

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