Cruz vs Beto

[Mojo Hand 4580]

24 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Doesn't that cut both ways? A substantial portion of the 38MM is out of state money that could be donated to other races. They chose Beto who is down 8-9 over Nevada or Tennessee. 

Possible, but unlikey.   Beto's money is direct small donations to his campaign.   There's no reason to think his $100 donors are forgoing donations in another race for this one; they just like Beto and are giving money they wouldn't otherwise spend, or adding him to a list of candidates they are also supporting.   The GOP/PACs etc. have been sinking generic national money into Texas for Cruz, and that money is definitely being diverted from other national candidates. 

[Js1 85109]

10 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

She seems to be in much worse trouble than Beto from the last polling data I saw.

ND is a hard state to poll - it's hard to poll the Native population (they were crucial to her win in 2012), they have same-day registration, no robo calls allowed, etc.  She was trailing by 8-10 points in 2012 and won by a percentage point while Obama lost the state by like, 20.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

24 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Possible, but unlikey.   Beto's money is direct small donations to his campaign.   There's no reason to think his $100 donors are forgoing donations in another race for this one; they just like Beto and are giving money they wouldn't otherwise spend, or adding him to a list of candidates they are also supporting.   The GOP/PACs etc. have been sinking generic national money into Texas for Cruz, and that money is definitely being diverted from other national candidates. 

I'm in for Beto for a couple hundred.  That money wasn't going anywhere else.   I'm sure some Beto money would have ended up in other campaigns but it's impossible to determine the amounts.  Same for Cruz.  Did the PACs spend their millions on Cruz that were meant potentially for Heller, or was a money given to them specifically for Cruz.  We don't know.

[triplelonghorn 27]

I donated to Beto. That money would have just gone toward some fun otherwise.

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[horncyclist 1386]

The fundraising is also a measure of enthusiasm. People who donate are also likely to vote and volunteer. I'm still reasonably optimistic. I think he made a mistake not attacking Cruz earlier but we'll see.

[David Dennison 18656]

Just now, horncyclist said:

The fundraising is also a measure of enthusiasm. People who donate are also likely to vote and volunteer. I'm still reasonably optimistic. I think he made a mistake not attacking Cruz earlier but we'll see.

If all the people who support him in Texas vote, he'll win.

Sadly, they all won't vote. 

[Gil Bang 25898]

8 minutes ago, triplelonghorn said:

I donated to Beto. That money would have just gone toward some fun otherwise.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

Are you one of those guys that pays to watch rats fuck?

[berlinerbaer 670]

45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm in for Beto for a couple hundred.  That money wasn't going anywhere else.   I'm sure some Beto money would have ended up in other campaigns but it's impossible to determine the amounts.  Same for Cruz.  Did the PACs spend their millions on Cruz that were meant potentially for Heller, or was a money given to them specifically for Cruz.  We don't know.

I gave only to the democratic US Senator, US House, and TX House candidates running in my respective state and districts.

If someone else wants to throw money at candidates outside of their state or district, more power to them. I don't want to be that kind of player, yet.

[Celery Man 20886]

This sounds like an aggy moral victory. 

Getting crushed in the collapse of the tower of garbage you built to spite people who didn’t even care about you to start with.

[Deej 76566]

Wearing a Beto t-shirt to pick up women seems to be a bit creepy.

Boys will be boys, I guess.

[Caddox 952]

Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

 

Question for Pubs- does it bother you that Texas is producing a left wing rockstar? The state has obviously shifted towards the left, even if not enough to win a senate election.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

2 minutes ago, Caddox said:

Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

No why should it bother anyone?

[Caddox 952]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

No why should it bother anyone?

That money could be sent to a campaign with a higher likelihood of flipping/winning.

[RPM 26227]

This is the first time I've donated to a political campaign and I've dropped a couple hundred. I look at it as an investment in the future of our country. This is a crossroads and I want us to take the right track.

Btw, The Candidate with Robert Redford just started on TCM. Very relevant considering.

[horncyclist 1386]

NY Times article about the money. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/us/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll.html

Apparently some Dems are complaining about it and Beto not redistributing to tighter races.

The thing is, I gave $400 to Beto because I support him and his message and think it's good for Texas. Honestly, his message and style is more important than flipping the Senate. I didn't give it so Claire McCaskill can eek out another win in Missouri.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

11 minutes ago, Caddox said:

That money could be sent to a campaign with a higher likelihood of flipping/winning.

The money for Beto has forced the gop to send millions to support Cruz. And they still will send more. 

[Gil Bang 25898]

9 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

NY Times article about the money. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/us/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll.html

Apparently some Dems are complaining about it and Beto not redistributing to tighter races.

The thing is, I gave $400 to Beto because I support him and his message and think it's good for Texas. Honestly, his message and style is more important than flipping the Senate. I didn't give it so Claire McCaskill can eek out another win in Missouri.

Fuck that shit.  I gave money for Beto's campaign, and I intended it to be spent on Beto's campaign.  I also gave money to Levin here in CA, the brown guy with the funny name running against Hunter, etc.   

If I contribute to a race in CA 48, I don't really want that money spent in Alaska. 

 

Now, if I give money to a PAC, that's a different animal.  

Edited October 13, 2018 by Gil Bang

[triplelonghorn 27]

Ducks. Rats too similar to humans anatomically to hold my interest

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[Brandywine 1313]

Beto needs to call Cruz out and start using that money to be aggressive. He’s going to lose if he doesn’t. Cruz’s aggressive negative campaign is working. 

[Celery Man 20886]

Yeah.  He has to fight back.

Also, Beto and his team did this thing.  They should use the war chest to win the race.

[troph 24562]

It’s really the only way. He’s gonna get killed if he doesn’t attack. He doesn’t have to be dirty. Just point out his weaknesses.

[RPM 26227]

1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

Beto needs to call Cruz out and start using that money to be aggressive. He’s going to lose if he doesn’t. Cruz’s aggressive negative campaign is working. 

Wait for it... Timing is everything and the electorate's attention span is short.

[tantric superman 4667]

Yeah.  I'm going to have to disagree with you guys, okay?  Beto's on the records for being against weapons of war.  Translation, he's going to take away the guns of everyone in the hustings.  He's not going to convince any of those folks who believe that, and probably not their wives. 

Everyone who hates Ted already hates him. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he is getting word that his best approach is simply just to try to get his voters out, and calling out Ted may not do that.

[tantric superman 4667]

3 hours ago, Deej said:

Wearing a Beto t-shirt to pick up women seems to be a bit creepy.

Not nearly as creepy as supporting Cruz.

[scottsins 1953]

Yeah.  I'm going to have to disagree with you guys, okay?  Beto's on the records for being against weapons of war.  Translation, he's going to take away the guns of everyone in the hustings.  He's not going to convince any of those folks who believe that, and probably not their wives. 
Everyone who hates Ted already hates him. 
It wouldn't surprise me at all if he is getting word that his best approach is simply just to try to get his voters out, and calling out Ted may not do that.

It’s not always about convincing the other side to switch their vote. It’s often about just getting them to not give as much of a shit to show up and wait in line for “their guy”. To me, that’s what attack ads can do.

[tantric superman 4667]

3 minutes ago, scottsins said:

 

It’s not always about convincing the other side to switch their vote. It’s often about just getting them to not give as much of a shit to show up and wait in line for “their guy”. To me, that’s what attack ads can do.

 

Yep.  Can't argue with that.

[Gil Bang 25898]

16 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Not nearly as creepy as supporting Cruz.

not as creepy as Cruz in a bathrobe in the college dorm.

[RPM 26227]

57 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Yeah.  I'm going to have to disagree with you guys, okay?  Beto's on the records for being against weapons of war.  Translation, he's going to take away the guns of everyone in the hustings.  He's not going to convince any of those folks who believe that, and probably not their wives. 

The fact he's on record saying he's not going to do that means nothing over perceived Boogie Man fears.

[Js1 85109]

4 hours ago, Caddox said:

That money could be sent to a campaign with a higher likelihood of flipping/winning.

None of the Dem senate candidates are hurting for money. Rosen raised $7 million. Sinema raised $7 million. Heitkamp raised $4 million. McCaskill $3 million. These are all much cheaper states to advertise in than Texas. The only other person who is in a state full of high price media markets is Bill Nelson. 

[berlinerbaer 670]

Round one of Beto's GOTV effort begins this weekend. They want to knock on over 100,000 doors in two days and make an equal number of phone calls. It would be informative to check where things stand in the polls to see if each campaigns' GOTV effort has any effect as we get closer to election day. Ultimately, comparison between the polls leading up to election day and the actual election result could give us some idea of what kind of impact GOTV has in Texas. Right now:

RCP polling average = Cruz +7.0

538 adjusted polls = Cruz +5.6%

538 "classic" forecast = Cruz +4.9%

[Crusher 127]

4 hours ago, Caddox said:

Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

 

Question for Pubs- does it bother you that Texas is producing a left wing rockstar? The state has obviously shifted towards the left, even if not enough to win a senate election.

No.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, scottsins said:

 

It’s not always about convincing the other side to switch their vote. It’s often about just getting them to not give as much of a shit to show up and wait in line for “their guy”. To me, that’s what attack ads can do.

 

Are there actually lines at the polls there?  Yall usually have nearly the lowest turnout in the nation. My district turnout isnt a world beater but its higher than the vast majority of Texas districts, and Ive only had to wait in line a single time and that time, it was because I walked there with a couple of neighbors and let them go first.  It takes me longer to get a coffee before getting on the train.  Sounds like yall have a pollworker problem too. There are about 25 people working at my precinct usually, and around 50 voting booths. 

Edited October 13, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Crusher 127]

2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Are there actually lines at the polls there?  Yall usually have nearly the lowest turnout in the nation. My district turnout isnt a world beater but its higher than the vast majority of Texas districts, and Ive only had to wait in line a single time and that time, it was because I walked there with a couple of neighbors and let them go first.  It takes me longer to get a coffee before getting on the train.  Sounds like yall have a pollworker problem too. There are about 25 people working at my precinct usually. 

Who actually does poll working? Who decides who they are?

Could say some nefarious fuck heads make sure that some folks get to vote and some "just didn't get there on time"?

[berlinerbaer 670]

5 hours ago, Caddox said:

Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

Beto's giant haul this quarter amounted to not even fifty bucks from over 800 thousand different donors. For the cost of a couple of movie tickets, those same people can go donate for someone else. Surely that has to be easier than being the GOP and having to knock on the door of some mega-donor and grovel for another $50 million.

[happyfunball 481]

7 hours ago, tantric superman said:

Yeah.  I'm going to have to disagree with you guys, okay?  Beto's on the records for being against weapons of war.  Translation, he's going to take away the guns of everyone in the hustings.  He's not going to convince any of those folks who believe that, and probably not their wives. 

Everyone who hates Ted already hates him. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he is getting word that his best approach is simply just to try to get his voters out, and calling out Ted may not do that.

Disagree completely. My aunt who is still an ardent Trump supporter tried to argue with my mom that Beto changed his name to Beto for the Hispanic vote. When my mom gave evidence, not Fox News, that Beto is good for Texas, my aunt actually listened. 

People on this forum don’t realize how little politics that the majority listens / reads so it is important that Beto goes negative to inform Texans how bad Cruz is for Texas. 

[RayDog 682]

8 hours ago, tantric superman said:

Yeah.  I'm going to have to disagree with you guys, okay?  Beto's on the records for being against weapons of war.  Translation, he's going to take away the guns of everyone in the hustings.  He's not going to convince any of those folks who believe that, and probably not their wives. 

Everyone who hates Ted already hates him. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he is getting word that his best approach is simply just to try to get his voters out, and calling out Ted may not do that.

Wrong. While he is on the record for banning "assault" weapon sales he thinks existing owners should be grandfathered.

This would be a good topic for an ad campaign to clarify his position and expose lyin' Ted.

My personal take is it is ridiculous to label a rifle as an "assault" rifle because it has a pistol grip. Any semiautomatic rifle above 22lr is roughly the same level of lethality when it comes to mass shootings.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

I’m curious how well Beto is convincing heavily democratic district voters to show up.   The districts were the Dem congressman/woman will win easily.  Gotta run up the score there.  There must be precincts where the Dem wins 90-95% of the vote but turnout is low.     

[troph 24562]

I’m thinking attack ads aren’t coming, just unprecedented GOTV efforts.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

Agree that I don’t think attack ads are coming either.  Team Beto seems to think they have enough interested voters and they only need to ensure those voters actually vote.    

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

16 hours ago, GRHorn said:

This sounds like an aggy moral victory. 

tell that to the GOP house incumbents who have lost their funding.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

15 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Doesn't that cut both ways? A substantial portion of the 38MM is out of state money that could be donated to other races. They chose Beto who is down 8-9 over Nevada or Tennessee. 

no, thats the whole thing- most of Beto's money would have been on the sidelines. Cruz's was already in play and committed.

Beto is bringing in new people, new money, and building new infrastructure. 

[Anastasis 23395]

19 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

no, thats the whole thing- most of Beto's money would have been on the sidelines. Cruz's was already in play and committed.

Beto is bringing in new people, new money, and building new infrastructure. 

I could see that for the in state money.  My thinking is that the out of state donors OTOH are not side line dwellers. Would be interesting to see the profile of the out of state donors to Beto. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I could see that for the in state money.  My thinking is that the out of state donors OTOH are not side line dwellers. Would be interesting to see the profile of the out of state donors to Beto. 

My understanding from those in a position to know is that it's overwhelmingly small donations from first timers who heard about the nice guy running against Ted Cruz or saw him on Ellen etc.  and wanted to help. Nobody likes Ted Cruz. 

Edited October 13, 2018 by Bozo_Casanova

[Anastasis 23395]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Nobody likes Ted Cruz. 

My analysis omitted consideration of this crucial fact. 

[pyrohornIII 4809]

19 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

I'm not sure your argument about substantial OOS money when it come to influencing Beto.

[Brandywine 1313]

It’s so frustrating to see ads by Dan Patrick where he’s sitting on the porch with his dog and farm in the background. And he’s talking Republican talking points about his standing up to Dems. So simple, nothing about how he’s really going to help Texans. Every ad I see from Abbott to our state rep is the same ad, and they’re all working. They don’t need that much money. Just run those fear ads and make sure Dems come across as the evil Satan, and you’re in. Early in Beto’s run they said he would need $35,000,000 to beat Ted, which seemed huge. Well, he’s done better than that. He’s visited every county, some multiple times, and just about every college campus. He’s set up call centers, and campaign organizations across the state that we’ve never seen before. He’s gotten people to register that have never voted. And yet, Ted will probably win with one tenth the effort and 25% of the money. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 hours ago, Crusher said:

Who actually does poll working? Who decides who they are?

Could say some nefarious fuck heads make sure that some folks get to vote and some "just didn't get there on time"?

Its old people mostly.  Volunteers, I think. Probably including some of the only Trump supporters in my 90% blue precinct.  They're all nice to everyone and make sure everyone is already registered and has a ballot in a language they understand. The pollworkers never touch a filled out ballot. You have to scan it yourself. Not sure how they can stop someone from getting there on time who is already in the room. Outside, there are only signs. Nobody is allowed to confront you within some distance to the door. Some candidates have people outside that perimeter telling everyone to go vote, but they don't ask who they are voting for. 

Perhaps y'all just really suck as people down there if your goal is to be nefarious. 

Edited October 13, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

Was out getting coffe early wearing a Beto shirt.  Had a few “nice shirt “ comments and because I wasn’t the only person wearing a Beto shirt, someone asked if there was an event in the area. 

[scottsins 1953]

48 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Its old people mostly.  Volunteers, I think. Probably including some of the only Trump supporters in my 90% blue precinct.  They're all nice to everyone and make sure everyone is already registered and has a ballot in a language they understand. The pollworkers never touch a filled out ballot. You have to scan it yourself. Not sure how they can stop someone from getting there on time who is already in the room. Outside, there are only signs. Nobody is allowed to confront you within some distance to the door. Some candidates have people outside that perimeter telling everyone to go vote, but they don't ask who they are voting for. 

Perhaps y'all just really suck as people down there if your goal is to be nefarious. 

Not sure, but I got an email targeted at attorneys asking for volunteers for several positions.  I believe one of them was poll worker.  I don’t think being an attorney is required at all, but yeah, it’s all volunteers for poll workers, observers and hotline staffing.

[Newdoc 3433]

1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

And yet, Ted will probably win with one tenth the effort and 25% of the money. 

O'Rourke's ground game is strong. I see many more yard signs and have been crap blasted with texts from actual people (not like the robo texts from "Senator Cotton" and "Newt").  A campaign worker for Beto even came by the house.

But, I have a feeling that as much charisma seeps from Beto, there are underlying policy positions that don't jive with his "Come on people now, smile on your brother" ad style. However, he definitely has the cult of personality. I think the outspoken far left sees him as a pawn for control of the Senate with a desire for a hard shift left and not as a uniting politician for the country. Lots of pictures of Beto with some folks (e.g. Second Amendment repeal types) circulating on social media.  So Beto the man may not make people nervous but a lot of his fringe support will get the vote out in opposition IMO. 

Cruz has very little charisma but he appears to be as a consistent conservative constitutionalist.  I think Cruz still has a lot of support but not enough conviction to get a lot of yard signs and people putting his stuff on social media blast. And those supporters will still go vote for the status quo, even if it is somewhat crappy to them.  It's going to be an interesting election day.