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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

workswithseed

workswithseed 2,103

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I know I’ve already burned too many brain cells thinking about this waste of space, but isn’t socialism technically wayyyyy closer to what the bible preaches than capitalism?

Jesus always touted that the people controlled the means of production, and that there would never be poor people.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45,676

Posted
Posted

cross post from @Celery Man

 
  1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

So for the super smart Trump conservatives we have here on the surl - do you watch this and think "This is really good, you guys who think it is ridiculous are just brainwashed.", or are you watching this and understanding how Trump is talking to these people, and thinking that you are not these people?

  1 hour ago, Celery Man said:So for the super smart Trump conservatives we have here on the surl - do you watch this and think "This is really good, you guys who think it is ridiculous are just brainwashed.", or are you watching this and understanding how Trump is talking to these people, and thinking that you are not these people?
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Stilicho

Stilicho 1,397

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

What was the military strategy Jesus advocated for dealing with crazed dictators?

What was the strategy Jesus advocated for the poor, wretched, downtrodden, and foreign?

I'll wait for your Google machine to kick in.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,652

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Why?

By all accounts, the GOP love people who haven't been elected officials in years.  Romney (2008 runner up, 2012 nominee), Huckabee (3rd place in 2008), Gingrich (4th place finish in 2012), Santorum (2nd place finish in 2012) were all out of office when they ran pretty sustained presidential campaigns.

Nobody wants to nominate somebody running from Texas if they can’t deliver Texas’s electoral votes. It’s a waste. 

Plus, if Rafael loses, many Republicans will blame him for helping give the Dems control of the Senate. 

Ted will be done in politics if  he loses this one. 

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Mole

Mole 4,330

Posted
Posted

The early church had the term koinonia which could be likened to something like an idealized socialism on a small scale. No one wanted for anything because they shared everything. There are mixed accounts though. There was cheerful giving and there was the threat of death. I suspect that much of the modern church wouldn’t fit in very well with the early church.

Acts 5: 

Now a man named Ananias, together with his wife Sapphira, also sold a piece of property.2 With his wife’s full knowledge he kept back part of the money for himself, but brought the rest and put it at the apostles’ feet.

3 Then Peter said, “Ananias, how is it that Satanhas so filled your heart that you have lied to the Holy Spirit and have kept for yourself some of the money you received for the land? 4 Didn’t it belong to you before it was sold? And after it was sold, wasn’t the money at your disposal?What made you think of doing such a thing? You have not lied just to human beings but to God.”

5 When Ananias heard this, he fell down and died. And great fear seized all who heard what had happened. 6 Then some young men came forward, wrapped up his body, and carried him out and buried him.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20,934

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

My initial reaction was that the huge early turnout is good for Beto.

Now I'm not so sure?

Thoughts?

describe the "now i'm not so sure?" part.  talking about that nbc news thing saying that republican voters were high among early voters?  Or something else?

I think it's only possibly good for dems that turnout is high in early voting (or turnout is high across the board), but that doesn't mean I'm expecting a big blue wave in Texas.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37,774

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

describe the "now i'm not so sure?" part.  talking about that nbc news thing saying that republican voters were high among early voters?  Or something else?

It's not based on anything specific.  My initial thought was that maybe this higher voter turnout will continue, due to Beto's likability, millennial angst over Trump, women's outrage over the Kavanuagh hearing, etc.

But then it occured to me that it could just as easily be conservatives wigging out over the invasion of MS13 and Middle Easterners from Central America (eye roll).

I really hope it's the former.  It should be the former.

Edited by TexArcher
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Celery Man

Celery Man 20,934

Posted
Posted

Yeah.  It's definitely both.  I think (and I believe the conventional wisdom is) that there are more people in the category of "would not have voted but for these things" in line one than there are in line two.  But we'll see if that's the case and if so, if it is enough to make a difference.

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4,814

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Today’s numbers were crazy but I think we need a few more days to understand the trend.  It would seem like Betos chances improve with more turn out but who knows.

The way I understood it from the first Beto grassroots meeting I attended was if we could get the same people to vote in the midterms that we did in the last presidential election (in Texas) then Beto had a good chance of winning.  Trump did not beat RHC by a huge margin. 

Quote

Hillary Clinton lost Texas by a smaller margin than any Democrat since 1996 (though Barack Obama got a larger percentage of the vote in 2008), which analysts attributed to ongoing demographic changes, although other analysts cite evidence suggesting the real reason was Trump losing ground with college-educated white voters.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas,_2016

The second part was that it seemed Trump and the R base was not going to grow appreciably and bring in the undecided voters.  So if Beto could count on the RHC voters to come out the numbers would be in his favor.  Not to mention all the new undecideds, or the changing demographics.  The push was never so much to switch voters, but to get voters to come out.  The normally non-voters that are energized are a side shoot of the bigger plan.

So yes, big early voting numbers indicate we as a state are on track to meet the voter turnout of a presidential election year, which according to Beto's camp is a very good thing. 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted

Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition.

580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. 

FYI, those are total knocks. In my experience, 50 to 70% aren't home or refuse. In most of those cases flyers are dropped off at the door. So that's at least 175,000 actual conversations held and up to 400,000 flyers handed out.

We should be at 800k by next weekend and over 1 million after next weekend. My guess is that 1.8 million total doors knocked will be the final number by 11/5, well short of the 4.4M goal but an unprecedented effort in the state of Texas regardless.

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Texas73

Texas73 420

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

Dallas:

 

Houston:

 

Austin:
 

 

San Antonio:

 

El Paso:

 

From Bruce Elfant's First Day Voting the number of in person voters is 32,302 and the number of mail in is 12,668 and his total is 47,405 but should be 44,970 unless one of the numbers for in person or mail in votes is incorrect.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,598

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Celery Man said:

 

I asked the man at the polling place if it had been busy all day. 

Oh yes.

Were they waiting for you when you got here?

Yes.

Purple haired girl ahead of me in line. 

Another taking his break time to vote along with me.

And a lot of gray hairs. 

I had to fight the urge to do some exit polling. 

I made my own statements walking to the truck. 

No. No. No. Yes.

No. No. No. Yes.

And oh hell no. As I pointed at the signs in earshot of the greeters that avoided me. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,511

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

The way I understood it from the first Beto grassroots meeting I attended was if we could get the same people to vote in the midterms that we did in the last presidential election (in Texas) then Beto had a good chance of winning.  Trump did not beat RHC by a huge margin. 

The second part was that it seemed Trump and the R base was not going to grow appreciably and bring in the undecided voters.  So if Beto could count on the RHC voters to come out the numbers would be in his favor.  Not to mention all the new undecideds, or the changing demographics.  The push was never so much to switch voters, but to get voters to come out.  The normally non-voters that are energized are a side shoot of the bigger plan.

So yes, big early voting numbers indicate we as a state are on track to meet the voter turnout of a presidential election year, which according to Beto's camp is a very good thing. 

Read somewhere that if all of the Texas counties basically had the same breakdown as Hillary/trump and turnout %, Cruz would win by about 800k given the growth in registrations in certain counties.  Assuming the turnout won’t ultimately be as high in a midterm, Beto needs to find maybe 400-500k voters.

However If voting numbers continue this high, I would expect both Cruz and Beto to get the message out/scare everyone that the unlikely voters need to show up as well.  This will be an unprecedented 2 weeks in Texas election history.  

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Mole

Mole 4,330

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition.

580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. 

FYI, those are total knocks. 

So, “knock, knock, knock” counts as three knocks.

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