Cruz vs Beto

[Celery Man 20882]

that's the lyin' side of his face

Nah the lazy eye is on his honest side

[Celery Man 20882]

Cruz/Beto is tighting up, which feels good. Still don't think Beto wins, but damn, so close. He put it all out on the field. He would make a good running mate for the next Dem Presidential race.

Obviously not a 2020 suggestion but I’d love an Abrams/Beto ticket. She’s a badass.

[Bruh Man 3160]

10 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Cruz/Beto is tighting up, which feels good. Still don't think Beto wins, but damn, so close. He put it all out on the field. He would make a good running mate for the next Dem Presidential race.

I admire his work ethic. Seriously how the fuck is he driving everyday across the state, holding multiple rallies, and shaking hands/taking pics with damn near every attendee? It's insane to me more than half this state will disregard his efforts, his 0$ from pac money, his kindness and authenticity,  instead blindly voting for the other guy that everyone hates just because he has a R in front of his name. The rest of the country will look at us like some damn clowns if we allow this to happen.

 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Bruh Man

[Bozo_Casanova 26275]

He looks like he’s lost about 20-25 pounds

[Nice Guy Eddie 13409]

Today 538 had some partisan commentators discuss the major senate races.  The GOP side didn't speak a word about Cruz.  However he had nothing but praise for Beto in teaching everyone how to run an underdog campaign and get national attention.

Quote

Holmes (R):

I think Beto is a hell of a political celebrity, and if you’re running an underdog race in 2018, he’s laid out a perfect blueprint for how to get attention, how to raise money, how to become a national superstar. But I don’t think he’s given us a blueprint to win a red state. We’re living in an age of political celebrity, and there’s no question he’s become that, but in terms of putting votes in a box, he’s got positions that are far, far outside the mainstream of Texas.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-spin-cycle/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13409]

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I admire his work ethic. Seriously how the fuck is he driving everyday across the state, holding multiple rallies, and shaking hands/taking pics with damn near every attendee? It's insane to me more than half this state will disregard his efforts, his 0$ from pac money, his kindness and authenticity,  instead blindly voting for the other guy that everyone hates just because he has a R in front of his name. The rest of the country will look at us like some damn clowns if we allow this to happen.

 

Maybe there is some credit for driving, but with that much money in the bank there's nothing wrong with using a private plane from time to time.   And not from a comfort standpoint but that you want to get to the next destination ASAP to get in front of people.  You could actually be in Houston and Dallas and San Antonio all in the same day along with several stops in each city.

[Brandywine 1312]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Today 538 had some partisan commentators discuss the major senate races.  The GOP side didn't speak a word about Cruz.  However he had nothing but praise for Beto in teaching everyone how to run an underdog campaign and get national attention.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-spin-cycle/

I believe those positions were created by Republicans through fear. The Wall, Second Amendment/take your guns away, Pro Life. I believe Beto would be a better representative for this state, but if you vote through fear then you'll vote Cruz and Republican. I read where Ted said he worked thousands of hours on getting the tax cuts. When did he do that? He doesn't show up for work enough hours to do that. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

(I still think Beto wins)

[Bama Chick 28596]

Me too, Hugo.

(We were right about Doug Jones!)

Any of you awesome people who have been volunteering for Beto or have opened your homes for pop up offices interested in being interviewed?

[Bama Chick 28596]

Oh and this is a really great article on why it’s so much fun to hate Ted Cruz.

(Come on, TED)

[atomheartbevo 89405]

38 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I admire his work ethic. Seriously how the fuck is he driving everyday across the state, holding multiple rallies, and shaking hands/taking pics with damn near every attendee?

His immune system has got to be amazing at this point. 

[relapse98 634]

" he’s got positions that are far, far outside the mainstream of Texas."

the fuck? He will at the very least get 40% of the votes. Far far out of the mainstream? Just how out of touch does someone have to be to say something like that. Its not like Texas votes 90% R, they are just our louder idiots.

[Celery Man 20882]

Ted Cruz with his bus is almost as bad as Dan Patrick with his owners' planes.

 

[relapse98 634]

Ted's bus looks like it needs some strippers.

[Rimbo 25769]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Today 538 had some partisan commentators discuss the major senate races.  The GOP side didn't speak a word about Cruz.  However he had nothing but praise for Beto in teaching everyone how to run an underdog campaign and get national attention.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-spin-cycle/

I thought the bit the Dem fella said was better:

Quote

This comes back to something that we’ve seen is so important in all these states: Who’s showing up, and who’s listening? I think something has been a little shortchanged about Beto: He is putting in the work.

Remember how Hillary didn't even show up to Wisconsin, but Trump did? That's how you make the predictions look stupid.

All that said... I am skeptical of my own claim, because I want to be right about this.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

58 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Ted Cruz with his bus is almost as bad as Dan Patrick with his owners' planes.

 

Has the governor joined part of the bus tour? If so does he grab the rear bumper and hitch a ride from stop to stop like Marty McFly?

[Guest Lobo]

What's the prevailing projection on total voter turnout across the state on this thing?  It was 7.5 million during the presidential election of 2012, but far less during last couple of mid-term elections in 2014 & 2006 (4.5 million).  I'm guessing with all the fervor, this one clicks in around 5.0-5.5mm.  I know Beto people will say that's too small, but we've never had anything close to approaching 6.0mm in an off-POTUS cycled election in this state.  Gov. Bush running alongside Sen. Hutchison got a whopping 6.0mm to turnout for Senate election in 2000...Roberto O'Rourke ain't gonna top that.  

Last two times out, a Libertarian candidate has proven solidly that 150,000 votes more than possible, it's probable.  If 5.0mm turn out and Beto is 5% behind, that's 250,000 votes.  Beto is not going to close that gap in the next 4 days+Election Day.  If his camp was smart, they would have backed our boy Dikeman to the tune of another 100,000 votes.  Force a recount and bring up voter supression on a widescale.  Dikeman is already polling for well over 100,000 votes.  Beto doesn't need every disgruntled Republican voter in the state to break for Beto, they need 100,000 more conservatives/libertarians/republicans than Dikeman already has to look and these two and think, "Trump and Cruz fucked up the GOP.  Beto isn't for me and doesn't seem terribly thrilled with Liberty.  So I'll go for Dikeman."  Beto's campaign had listened to maths, they'd have effectively overtaken the ABC, Anybody But Cruz vote, and Beto goes to the Senate.  As it stands, Dikeman gets 150,000 votes, and Beto loses by 100-200,000 votes.  

[RPM 26213]

I still say Beto wins. The natives are restless. He's stirred up votes that don't normally get cast and aren't being reflected in the polls. It won't be a runaway victory, but a victory none the less. 

[triplelonghorn 27]

BAHAHAHA!  Why not move the fuck out if shit's that bad? 

Probably for the same reason you didn't when Obama was president: we have hope that you idiots will OD on meth sooner rather than later.

 

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

RPM:       

What's your prediction on total voter turnout for this Senate seat?  Baseline is 4.5mm, we don't dip below that.  All-time high for any election in Texas is Presidential:  ~8.5mm, without it being a POTUS election year, around ~6.0-6.5mm.  I still say between 5.0-55.  Nobody has gotten more than Noriega regardless of cycle, and that was 3.4.  At a 7.5mm turnout (the record many Democrats are predicting), Beto would have to would have to substantially eclipse that.  But remember that was 2008, high voter turnout nationwide for the big Obama/McCain showdown.  Not sure this stays anywhere near that ballpark.

Edited October 30, 2018 by Lobo

[Nice Guy Eddie 13409]

I think Texas turnout will be north of 7m. Perhaps as low as 6.5m.    The largest 16 counties are already over 2.5m, and they only count for about 2/3 of the state.   Overall early voting may surpass 4m in the next day or two for all counties but I dont know where to verify that estimate.

texas was just shy of 9m voting in 2016.

Edited October 30, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Bruh Man 3160]

23 minutes ago, Lobo said:

What's the prevailing projection on total voter turnout across the state on this thing?  It was 7.5 million during the presidential election of 2012, but far less during last couple of mid-term elections in 2014 & 2006 (4.5 million).  I'm guessing with all the fervor, this one clicks in around 5.0-5.5mm.  I know Beto people will say that's too small, but we've never had anything close to approaching 6.0mm in an off-POTUS cycled election in this state.  Gov. Bush running alongside Sen. Hutchison got a whopping 6.0mm to turnout for Senate election in 2000...Roberto O'Rourke ain't gonna top that.  

Last two times out, a Libertarian candidate has proven solidly that 150,000 votes more than possible, it's probable.  If 5.0mm turn out and Beto is 5% behind, that's 250,000 votes.  Beto is not going to close that gap in the next 4 days+Election Day.  If his camp was smart, they would have backed our boy Dikeman to the tune of another 100,000 votes.  Force a recount and bring up voter supression on a widescale.  Dikeman is already polling for well over 100,000 votes.  Beto doesn't need every disgruntled Republican voter in the state to break for Beto, they need 100,000 more conservatives/libertarians/republicans than Dikeman already has to look and these two and think, "Trump and Cruz fucked up the GOP.  Beto isn't for me and doesn't seem terribly thrilled with Liberty.  So I'll go for Dikeman."  Beto's campaign had listened to maths, they'd have effectively overtaken the ABC, Anybody But Cruz vote, and Beto goes to the Senate.  As it stands, Dikeman gets 150,000 votes, and Beto loses by 100-200,000 votes.  

We're on pace for approx 60% turnout. Multiply that by 15.6M registered voters = 9,360,000 votes.

*9M is probably a better estimate because I don't think we'll sustain presidential election day numbers.

[Guest Lobo]

We're gonna have 2.0mm more turnout than have ever voted for a non-presidential ballot in history?  That's a 25-30% increase over any other election of its kind, ever.  That would be surprising and would certainly negate getting Dikeman another 150,000 votes.  

[RPM 26213]

9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

RPM:       

What's your prediction on total voter turnout for this Senate seat?

I don't have a number, but I think total turnout will be near Presidential election numbers. It's the makeup of the numbers that is going to be different. Beto has stirred up huge numbers of previously non-voters. Add that to the traditional D vote and a few crossover R & I votes and I think it will be enough to defeat the bluehairs and deplorables.

[Bruh Man 3160]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

We're gonna have 2.0mm more turnout than have ever voted for a non-presidential ballot in history?  That's a 25-30% increase over any other election of its kind, ever.  That would be surprising and would certainly negate getting Dikeman another 150,000 votes.  

This is the pace we're on for the early vote. If we sustain this trajectory then approx 6.2M votes will have been casted before election day. Add the election day vote, I believe 8.5M at the minimum is very doable.

 

Edited October 30, 2018 by Bruh Man

[atomheartbevo 89405]

54 minutes ago, Lobo said:

What's the prevailing projection on total voter turnout across the state on this thing?  It was 7.5 million during the presidential election of 2012, but far less during last couple of mid-term elections in 2014 & 2006 (4.5 million).  I'm guessing with all the fervor, this one clicks in around 5.0-5.5mm.  I know Beto people will say that's too small, but we've never had anything close to approaching 6.0mm in an off-POTUS cycled election in this state.  Gov. Bush running alongside Sen. Hutchison got a whopping 6.0mm to turnout for Senate election in 2000...Roberto O'Rourke ain't gonna top that.  

20 million people in Texas in 2010. 28 million in 2017 (estimated by census). 

Edited October 30, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[Guest Lobo]

^
Fair point, but you're way off.  There were 25-26mm in Texas in 2010.  Margin hasn't jumped that much.  NOt yet anyway...

[Bottlecap 1519]

 

[sushihorn 3233]

14 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

This is the pace we're on for the early vote. If we sustain this trajectory then approx 6.2M votes will have been casted before election day. Add the election day vote, I believe 8.5M at the minimum is very doable.

 

Don't think we can draw conclusions from Sunday but we did see some signs of exhaustion on Saturday.  Some counties that had shown very high turnout during week 1 fell below the daily mean (2.83%) for the top 30 counties.  Travis came in at 2.82%, El Paso 1.52, Williamson 2.60 and Lubbock 1.93.  We'll see if the partisan bases can sustain this pace through next week.  I'm beginning to doubt it.

[Bruh Man 3160]

4 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Don't think we can draw conclusions from Sunday but we did see some signs of exhaustion on Saturday.  Some counties that had shown very high turnout during week 1 fell below the daily mean (2.83%) for the top 30 counties.  Travis came in at 2.82%, El Paso 1.52, Williamson 2.60 and Lubbock 1.93.  We'll see if the partisan bases can sustain this pace through next week.  I'm beginning to doubt it.

Yeah you are probably right. 

It's crazy after all of this, 2 out of 5 registered voters will sit out. What is wrong with these people????

[sushihorn 3233]

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

Yeah you are probably right. 

It's crazy after all of this, 2 out of 5 registered voters will sit out. What is wrong with these people????

Somebody pointed out that Motor Voter was implemented in 1995.  You can register people automatically but that doesn't make them any more likely to vote than before.  It does make turnout (measured as a % of RVs) look worse.

[Brisketexan 104550]

Driving through near west austin last night, saw this gem:

[Biff Tannen 45491]

7 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

read as land mines.  i nodded sagaciously at whatever deep metaphor i pretended to understand.

Same.  And I also learned a new word today.  Sagaciously.  I'll try to use it in a sentence tomorrow.

[Biff Tannen 45491]

4 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I admire his work ethic. Seriously how the fuck is he driving everyday across the state, holding multiple rallies, and shaking hands/taking pics with damn near every attendee? It's insane to me more than half this state will disregard his efforts, his 0$ from pac money, his kindness and authenticity,  instead blindly voting for the other guy that everyone hates just because he has a R in front of his name. The rest of the country will look at us like some damn clowns if we allow this to happen.

 

Prepare to don the clown suit.

[NameWithHeld 101]

3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Me too, Hugo.

(We were right about Doug Jones!)

Any of you awesome people who have been volunteering for Beto or have opened your homes for pop up offices interested in being interviewed?
 

You don’t think Doug Jones will actually win his next election do you?

[Bama Chick 28596]

Depends on what immoral shitgibbon the Republicans run against him.

If Roy Moore runs again?

What do you think?

And there’s a lot more Roy Moores skulking around Montgomery.

[NameWithHeld 101]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Depends on what immoral shitgibbon the Republicans run against him.

If Roy Moore runs again?

What do you think?

And there’s a lot more Roy Moores skulking around Montgomery.

Roy Moore is dead and buried. The only reason Doug Jones is anywhere near DC is because of that dumbass Roy Moore.  Any other Republican would have beat Jones.   History ain’t repeat’n in Sweet Home Alabama. . 

Edited October 30, 2018 by NameWithHeld
Spelling.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

Sessions will be unemployed by the end of next week...he'll probably run to get his old seat back. 

[atomheartbevo 89405]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

^
Fair point, but you're way off.  There were 25-26mm in Texas in 2010.  Margin hasn't jumped that much.  NOt yet anyway...

Shit, I meant 20 million in 2000 when W was running.  We’ve had an 8 million increase or so since 2000.  That is substantial, especially given where that 8 million breaks down.  

[atomheartbevo 89405]

Edit double post. 

Edited October 30, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[shnsajax 3589]

Ted's bus looks like it needs some strippers.

[gmr548 16490]

We're gonna have 2.0mm more turnout than have ever voted for a non-presidential ballot in history?  That's a 25-30% increase over any other election of its kind, ever.  That would be surprising and would certainly negate getting Dikeman another 150,000 votes.  

That is the trend not just here, but nationally. Nearly Presidential election turnout.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Bruh Man 3160]

 

 

[sushihorn 3233]

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That is the trend not just here, but nationally. Nearly Presidential election turnout.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Maybe 1/3 to half of the nation, including TX, FL and GA are within 20-25% of 2016.  Another group is well above 2014 but still far short of 2016.  States like OH, MT, WV,..  But there are a surprising number of laggards that are little if any higher than 2014.  IA and CO but most notably CA - which is surprising since they have both a senate and governor's race at the top of the ticket.

[elfenix 34170]

6 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

 

 

508% seems like a lot. 

 

of course, it's probably that only 11 voters under the age of 30 voted in 2014.

[Marshall_Lucky 624]

7 hours ago, relapse98 said:

I imagine my german might be worse than my english.

Do you even “Gunter Glieben Glauten Globen” bro?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Marshall_Lucky said:

Do you even “Gunter Glieben Glauten Globen” bro?

Avatar checks out?

[Gil Bang 25896]

Maybe 1/3 to half of the nation, including TX, FL and GA are within 20-25% of 2016.  Another group is well above 2014 but still far short of 2016.  States like OH, MT, WV,..  But there are a surprising number of laggards that are little if any higher than 2014.  IA and CO but most notably CA - which is surprising since they have both a senate and governor's race at the top of the ticket.

 CA early voting isn’t really a thing. For example, there are only 10 early voting locations for all of Los Angeles County. Pomona to Pacific Palisades. Torrance to Tijunga. Big fucking County with 10 places.  

All of O.C. has 8 locations. That’s Buena Park to San Clemente. 8.

 

San Bernardino County is only THE LARGEST FUCKING COUNTY in the entire country. They have 6.

 

Ontario to Arizona. 6.

 

 

[berlinerbaer 670]

24 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Maybe 1/3 to half of the nation, including TX, FL and GA are within 20-25% of 2016.  Another group is well above 2014 but still far short of 2016.  States like OH, MT, WV,..  But there are a surprising number of laggards that are little if any higher than 2014.  IA and CO but most notably CA - which is surprising since they have both a senate and governor's race at the top of the ticket.

The senate and gubernatorial races in CA are in the bag for the Dems. Unless they live in one of the swingy congressional districts, there aren't any reason for the non-partisans to show up.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

(I still think Beto wins)

I thought so too until the straight ticket voting glitch was reported. Aint happening. 

Straight ticket Dem. Senate flipped to Cruz.

Straight ticket GOP.  Senate blanked. 

You can do that math. I do think more people will leave the polls believing they voted for Beto but they arent going to get counted properly. This is like a Saddam election where he "won" 99-1 but the powers that be in Texas are aiming for more of a 55-45.  Maybe theyll try 99-1 in 2020. 

Edited October 30, 2018 by FondrenRoad