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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Looking back at some state wide polling prior to elections last year and you can see how far off the polling has been.

Look at how far off they were in the Virginia governors race last year.

7DDBBEA1-B336-4648-A753-EE945F2BD8A9_zps

 

Also, the Alabama Senate race:

671D8CA5-1715-45F4-B79B-54ED5D128642_zps

 

I’m just saying, look out.

14 days before the election Clinton had a 48-36 lead on trump in Michigan based on the polling averages. It steadily got closer but was still a 4 point Clinton lead right before Election Day. 

Pollsters don’t really know shit nowadays. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Pollsters don’t really know shit nowadays. 

It has everything to do with the Trump era too. 

He has made the electorate so much more difficult to forecast as far as who is going to turn out and why.

Throw in the unorthodox grassroots style of Beto’s campaign and it really is “who the fuck knows” in this one.  

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15562

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

14 days before the election Clinton had a 48-36 lead on trump in Michigan based on the polling averages. It steadily got closer but was still a 4 point Clinton lead right before Election Day. 

Pollsters don’t really know shit nowadays. 

The same thing happened with her in the primary in Michigan.  She was up 10 in the polls; she lost by 0.1%.

I think that says something about Michigan and Hillary rather than saying something about the polls.  Her "supporters" weren't enthusiastic for her.  If they thought there was a risk of her losing, they would have voted.  But the polls showing her up big--both in the primary and in the general--became a self-defeating prophesy.  It gave people who would've otherwise voted for her a reason/excuse not to bother.

 

 

 

 

I actually think there are a lot of parallels here with Cruz.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see Cruz underperform his polling numbers if Republicans think he has it in the bag.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 26173

Posted
Posted

Y'all need to be careful that you're not buying your own bullshit.

As much as I would love to see Cruz lose and Beto win, that very desire to see him win has me doubting any claim that he will.

While we have very good reasons to doubt the polls' accuracy... right now, Cruz will probably get re-elected.

The good news is that, on a national level, the GOP had to throw money at Cruz to keep him alive that they wouldn't have had to otherwise. Even if the GOP wins, it should be a Pyrrhic victory.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15562

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Y'all need to be careful that you're not buying your own bullshit.

As much as I would love to see Cruz lose and Beto win, that very desire to see him win has me doubting any claim that he will.

While we have very good reasons to doubt the polls' accuracy... right now, Cruz will probably get re-elected.

The good news is that, on a national level, the GOP had to throw money at Cruz to keep him alive that they wouldn't have had to otherwise. Even if the GOP wins, it should be a Pyrrhic victory.

I agree with all of this. 

If you asked me whether I would rather be in Ted Cruz's position or Beto O'Rourke's position right now,  . . . I'd rather be in Beto's because I'd be able to get as much pussy as I wanted and I would apparently be able to eat Whataburger for every meal and still lose weight.

But if you asked me whether I would rather be in Ted Cruz's position or Beto O'Rourke's position right now on the sole question of wanting to be elected to the Senate, I'd definitely prefer to be in Ted Cruz's position.

But even in Ted Cruz's position, I'd be nervous.

And in Ted Cruz's position, I'd start feathering my bed on K Street, because I'd know that this is going to be my last term.  2024 is a presidential year, with consequently higher turnout, and the Black vote is going to be mobilized to vote for President Gillium's reelection.

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Y'all need to be careful that you're not buying your own bullshit.

As much as I would love to see Cruz lose and Beto win, that very desire to see him win has me doubting any claim that he will.

While we have very good reasons to doubt the polls' accuracy... right now, Cruz will probably get re-elected.

The good news is that, on a national level, the GOP had to throw money at Cruz to keep him alive that they wouldn't have had to otherwise. Even if the GOP wins, it should be a Pyrrhic victory.

Is anybody besides Hugo thinking Beto will win? Seems like most here, although rooting for Beto, are realistic of his chances and are predicting a 5ish% cruz win. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Y'all need to be careful that you're not buying your own bullshit.

Yeah, I think we’ve learned our lesson from 2016.

However, the parallels between Cruz and Hillary are kinda striking.

An unlikable candidate that’s all but certain to win versus a challenger running an unorthodox campaign with an insane amount of energy. 

I think Beto is going to win but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21022

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I agree with all of this. 

If you asked me whether I would rather be in Ted Cruz's position or Beto O'Rourke's position right now,  . . . I'd rather be in Beto's because I'd be able to get as much pussy as I wanted and I would apparently be able to eat Whataburger for every meal and still lose weight.

But if you asked me whether I would rather be in Ted Cruz's position or Beto O'Rourke's position right now on the sole question of wanting to be elected to the Senate, I'd definitely prefer to be in Ted Cruz's position.

But even in Ted Cruz's position, I'd be nervous.

And in Ted Cruz's position, I'd start feathering my bed on K Street, because I'd know that this is going to be my last term.  2024 is a presidential year, with consequently higher turnout, and the Black vote is going to be mobilized to vote for President Gillium's reelection.

how about if you wanted to be president

(not that I see that as a likely potential thing for Beto if he lost.  but Cruz is done)

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15562

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

how about if you wanted to be president

(not that I see that as a likely potential thing for Beto if he lost.  but Cruz is done)

Cruz has a 0% chance of ever being president; Beto has a >0% chance of being president.  Therefore, I'd rather be Beto.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, I think we’ve learned our lesson from 2016.

However, the parallels between Cruz and Hillary are kinda striking.

An unlikable candidate that’s all but certain to win versus a challenger running an unorthodox campaign with an insane amount of energy. 

I think Beto is going to win but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. 

Exactly. I think he will win but I wouldn’t bet on it either. Which basically means I don’t really know shit. But I still dont trust the polls on this one, in either direction. Guess we shall see. 

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TexasMan

TexasMan 10992

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

I see a million Ted Cruz TV ads for every handful of Beto ads. Irritating and not in line with the fundraising numbers. I guess they’re just spending their money completely differently. Hope not works for Beto. 

Complete opposite for me. 

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RPM

RPM 26374

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

I see a million Ted Cruz TV ads for every handful of Beto ads.

I see more Beto ads, but Cruz has upped his count. I expect the next week to be an all out assault from both campaigns.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45753

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, elguapo said:

Not sure where to put this, but shit just got real here in Leander. My wife came home from picking up kids and there was a white suburban blocking our driveway and driver looks like he’s taking pics of our yard signs. He rolled down his window and told my wife to fuck off and flipped her off (in front of our kids). I’m wfh and she comes running inside with the kids everyone upset, I run out and dude has driven off.

So I remember my wife telling me that somebody had posted a pic of our Beto yard sign back in July on a FB group called Leander Uncensored. I go find the post and pull up the guys FB page and my wife says it is the same guy that harassed her today. Now I’m contemplating what to do with this info.

On his FB profile he has the below symbol. Googled this and seems to be some group called The Three Percenters.

fadeab5d1be241853116215b8044ed52.jpg

giphy.gif

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Rimbo

Rimbo 26173

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, I think we’ve learned our lesson from 2016.

However, the parallels between Cruz and Hillary are kinda striking.

An unlikable candidate that’s all but certain to win versus a challenger running an unorthodox campaign with an insane amount of energy. 

I think Beto is going to win but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. 

They really are striking parallels, but there are also so important differences. For example, we know foreign powers can and will involve themselves in elections, and they prefer the GOP at this point because the party is such a goatfuck of disagreements and bad policies that it is in enemy nations' interests to have more Republicans in power, and the worse the person, the better.

But it's just in general good for the brain -- the more you want something to be true, the more you must be skeptical of its claims.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
Just now, Rimbo said:

They really are striking parallels, but there are also so important differences. For example, we know foreign powers can and will involve themselves in elections, and they prefer the GOP at this point because the party is such a goatfuck of disagreements and bad policies that it is in enemy nations' interests to have more Republicans in power, and the worse the person, the better.

But it's just in general good for the brain -- the more you want something to be true, the more you must be skeptical of its claims.

I’m well aware of my vulnerability to wishful thinking (cough Flake, chokes on crow). 

About the foreign influence though, the difference this go around is we know a lot more about what they do and how to counter it.  

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relapse98

relapse98 634

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

Serious question. Who would actually hire Cruz if he lost? He didn’t build in long term favors in the senate and lacks ability to run for president again. 

Shit ton of law firms. He'd have a job long before his replacement is sworn in. He's a freaking constitutional scholar AND debate champ at Second Best Baptist School in Houston.

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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, relapse98 said:

The job, oh I'm dead serious on that part. The rest is a little hyperbole and trolling.

Being a constitutional lawyer doesn’t bring in the clients. I don’t see many law firms want to hire someone who burned so many political bridges. Maybe Jones Day but they are tied to the whole Republican Party so not sure there either 

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relapse98

relapse98 634

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

Being a constitutional lawyer doesn’t bring in the clients. I don’t see many law firms want to hire someone who burned so many political bridges. Maybe Jones Day but they are tied to the whole Republican Party so not sure there either 

I'll take, "Where was Ted Cruz between being Solicitor General and being elected Senator for $100", Alex.

This is a silly argument. Nobody likes Ted, but we all know he'll have a job long before his replacement is sworn in. I can't believe we are actually having a debate on this. He's not funny, he has no personality, he's kinda of embarassing.. and he'll be hired.

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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, relapse98 said:

I'll take, "Where was Ted Cruz between being Solicitor General and being elected Senator for $100", Alex.

This is a silly argument. Nobody likes Ted, but we all know he'll have a job long before his replacement is sworn in. I can't believe we are actually having a debate on this. He's not funny, he has no personality, he's kinda of embarassing.. and he'll be hired.

Why I prefaced as serious question. I don’t know the law market

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Satchel

Satchel 6949

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/10/30/cruz-abbott-pull-ahead-in-latest-poll/

Don’t know whether this pollster has a decent history or not, but I saw it on the Real Clear Politics list of polls.  Has Cruz’s lead up to 10.

Heidi Heidkamp was down by 10 when she won in 2016. Beto is riding the wave. Why else would Cruz be on a bus six days out?

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Satchel

Satchel 6949

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Considering I predicted something like Cruz by 4-6 a while back, the fact that R pollsters have him up by 10 and O'Rourke has it for him by 2 reinforces my preconceptions so my confirmation bias is feeling pretty good right now.

In a potentially wave election, how accurate can polls of "likely voters" be?

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