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Posted

As all Beto supporters are looking for signs the polls are wrong, here is more info:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The GOP internal polling has Cruz up by 8-9 points ASSUMING 6m will vote.  I think 6m is at least 1m too low.  Maybe closer to 1.5m.

In 2014, about 47% of voters voted early.  In 2016, that was 77%.  Makes sense that people are worried about long lines on POTUS election day so they go early.   Ffwd to 2018. Take the actual plus final day estimate early totals this year, divide by the 2016 early vote percentage (77%), you end up with 7.6m total votes.   

If internal GOP polling is off by 1.6m votes, you can't just assume that Cruz will still lead by 9.  Who are the 1.6m people that the GOP thinks won't vote but appear to be voting?

 

Posted
Quote

looks like we're headed to somewhere between 8-8.5M turnout. 

Where are getting that high of a turnout?  I hope it is but doesn't look like it to me.

Posted

8+ seems to be a stretch.  It's a midterm but voters appear to be almost as motivated as a POTUS election year.     But then maybe the people who will vote this year are even MORE motivated than in a POTUS year so they all came out early.  Tuesday #s may be disappointing. Maybe 85% are voting early.

Posted
2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

6MM have probably already voted.

Definitely by the end of today if not yesterday.  UNLESS the rural vote decided to stay home but there isn't any indication of that.  And if that happened, Cruz is done. 

Cruz has to hope that the unexpected voters vote relatively close to the expected voters.

Posted
8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

6MM have probably already voted.

If the rural counties are early voting like the 30 urban ones, then it is 5.5MM as of the end of yesterday. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Born to Run said:

Not all are morally bankrupt. The influence of Rush, Fox, Micheal Barry cannot be understated. Those fuckers are burning in hell. 
 

 

Hey, leave Rush out of this.  I get it, Geddy's voice takes some getting used to, and Neil's lyrics are a Randian beating, but man, those are good guys who can really play.

  • Like 2
Posted
10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hey, leave Rush out of this.  I get it, Geddy's voice takes some getting used to, and Neil's lyrics are a Randian beating, but man, those are good guys who can really play.

Hey! Guys like those three are exactly why we need tough border policies. Keeping them and their dirty filthy rock 'n' roll OUT OF AMERICA.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
43 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As all Beto supporters are looking for signs the polls are wrong, here is more info:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The GOP internal polling has Cruz up by 8-9 points ASSUMING 6m will vote.  I think 6m is at least 1m too low.  Maybe closer to 1.5m.

In 2014, about 47% of voters voted early.  In 2016, that was 77%.  Makes sense that people are worried about long lines on POTUS election day so they go early.   Ffwd to 2018. Take the actual plus final day estimate early totals this year, divide by the 2016 early vote percentage (77%), you end up with 7.6m total votes.   

If internal GOP polling is off by 1.6m votes, you can't just assume that Cruz will still lead by 9.  Who are the 1.6m people that the GOP thinks won't vote but appear to be voting?

 

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

Posted
1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

Hey! Guys like those three are exactly why we need tough border policies. Keeping them and their dirty filthy rock 'n' roll OUT OF AMERICA.

That's a good point.  Fuckin' hosers.

  • Like 1
Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

I hear ya.  The math works out like that.  But when the GOP says Cruz has a 9 point lead we don't know if they mean 54.5-45.5 or 50-41 with 9 undecided.   Most likely its somewhere in the middle.  Where do the undecided fall?

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

That's if one were to take Cruz's internals as completely accurate.  What if it's only 4-5 points as the aggregate seems to indicate.  At 5 points, he'd have to win the overage at about 58%.  At 4 points it's somewhere around 56%.

Posted
1 minute ago, Texas73 said:

We country folks up in Van Zandt County called them crawdads.

yeah, well, you live in a dry county. that explains a lot. 

heh. my ma lives up that way. always have to remember to stop in athens.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

That's if one were to take Cruz's internals as completely accurate.  What if it's only 4-5 points as the aggregate seems to indicate.  At 5 points, he'd have to win the overage at about 58%.  At 4 points it's somewhere around 56%.

Well no shit.  I conceded that assumption.  It was the basis of my whole post.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Rush will have a huge influence on the 2112 election.  This year, not so much.

Ask the oaks how that socialism worked out for them.

  • Like 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

yeah, well, you live in a dry county. that explains a lot. 

heh. my ma lives up that way. always have to remember to stop in athens.

I've been in Austin since 1973, my graduation year from UT. But yeah, I hear you. 

Several of the little towns, Canton and Wills Point for sure voted in alcohol sales recently.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mole said:

Be happy in their shade?

They can fly the Rocinante into a black hole in Cygnus. There, they will help both sides achieve balance.

Edited by Rimbo
Posted
On 10/30/2018 at 7:40 PM, Bruh Man said:

Beto mentioned that he went to King County, Texas despite the county voting 96% for Trump. Apparently it's been labeled "the most anti-Obama" county in the U.S.

 

King county only has a population of like 200, and zero incorporated towns. Who gives a shit how it votes?

Posted
2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

I don’t know Ted, but I know people who know him socially.  To a man, they all share your opinion.  One of the nicest people I know - someone who never has a bad word to say about anyone - knows Cruz and described him as “a complete asshole.”  

Okay.  I know people who know people that described Robert O'Rourke's attempt, as part of the City Council, to gentrify an area (predominately Mexican-American) of El Paso as shitty and called him a sell out.  He was the lackey for his billionaire FIL William D. Sanders.  So I guess Mr. O'Rourke's halo has been dinged.  Oh gawd what do we do.

  • Fuck You 2
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

At least he can hold his head high and say he didn't go negative against one of the most detestable and easy-to-attack candidates in Texas history.

"I have my pride!" I shout at the cattle cars heading towards the smokestacks billowing ash.

Sounds kinda aggy-------------like running out of time.  I guess he has his dignity but he fucked over his supporters by not going all out

Moral victory I guess.

Edited by NameWithHeld
Posted
9 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Holy shit that communist voting POS is a UT alumnus?  My degrees just took a hit.  Fuck.

Yeah, I'm sure you never did ANYTHING stupid when you were 21.

Posted
9 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Holy shit that communist voting POS is a UT alumnus?  My degrees just took a hit.  Fuck.

My degree took more a of a hit knowing you went to my school.

  • Like 4
Posted
1 minute ago, thepop said:

My degree took more a of a hit knowing you went to my school.

Tell me how you can support John Brennan and what he's done.  He's fucking spied on Americans and you don't seem to fucking care.  READ HIS HISTORY.  

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Yeah, I'm sure you never did ANYTHING stupid when you were 21.

Not that fucking stupid.  Please explain his spying on Americans.  He was the head of the CIA for fucks sake.

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
1 minute ago, NameWithHeld said:

Tell me how you can support John Brennan and what he's done.  He's fucking spied on Americans and you don't seem to fucking care.  READ HIS HISTORY.  

Do you honestly believe this administration isn't spying on Americans?

  • Like 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Reading for tone is hard.

So you are happy the Mr. O'Rourke did his best to win for Texans?  Even when there could have been other ways to spend the millions of dollars he raised?

  • Fuck You 2
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

No. I'm saying it's the CIA. It's what they do. It's what they've always done.

Not in the USA.  That is Verboten.  

 

Brennan was asked UNDER OATH if the CIA was spying on US citizens and he said "No".  He lied.

Edited by NameWithHeld
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
Just now, NameWithHeld said:

So you are happy the Mr. O'Rourke did his best to win for Texans?  Even when there could have been other ways to spend the millions of dollars he raised?

Sure. It might work. He could very well win on Tuesday.



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