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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104218

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I can't imagine my church hosting a rally for a political candidate. Gross. 

This.

Our congregation doesn't even have an American flag in the sanctuary except for one single day of the year (scouting sunday, when the Boy Scout troop associated with the congregation participates in the service and comes in with their colors).  Theologically, that's 100% sound to me.

Hell, I remember the Sunday after 9/11, no flags, no patriotic tunes, none of the trappings of America.  Just a sermon.  And real-deal hymns.  I was pretty raw, when I complained about it to my wife, she said "well, the church's allegiance is to God and all his people, not the flag or a country."  And it resonated like hell with me.

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Js1

Js1 84990

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Steve seems on top of things.

 

Yes Steve, going to be 12 million midterm votes out of 15.6 million registered Texans.

Also 8.2 million would be about 52.5% of registered voters in Texas.  That would make me cry, I'd be so thrilled.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32646

Posted
Posted

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Agree.  That's what it looks like to me too.  Everyone's favorite word on EV this year is "cannibalizing."  He's not taking that into account at all.

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Captainant

Captainant 27239

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Idk man, if anything I see this year's election as even more energized and motivated than in 2016. There's no third party to steal votes and the dems aren't running a pantsuit as a candidate so the voters broadly actually like the candidate. I could see 8.2M votes easily. Literally everyone I know has voted so far, including folks who abstained in 2016. I really hope 8.2MM is an underestimate. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26130

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That couldn’t be good for Cruz

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32646

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

Yeah, I think I'd probably go 7.3-7.5M instead of my earlier range. As mentioned above, percentage of voters voting early has been on a steady incline, which is just one more thing to add to the list of reasons why 8.2M is too high.

On the other hand there is supposed to be pretty good weather overall statewide tomorrow.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45432

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

they're happy to vote for him, but they're not going to turn out to see him. they don't care THAT much

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3438

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

FWIW- I never thought Beto answered that question the right way. His answer should have been:

“No offense, ma’am, but how NFL players act on the sidelines doesn’t keep you safe, lower your taxes or get better wages for working people. It’s something politicians want you to worry about so you won’t hold them accountable.
I stand, and I’m running for the Senate, not NFL commissioner.”

You don't go viral with that answer.  

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

Yeah, I was pretty much one of those dumbasses for a long, long time. It's a shame. Mostly born of ignorance, intellectual laziness, religious, family and community influence and a lot of status quo thinking. Glad I've moved on from it.

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