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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

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18 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

https://crosswindpr.com/texas-poll-shows-beto-orourke-gaining-ground-as-ted-cruz-hangs-on-to-a-slim-3-lead/

Austin, TX – In a sign of just how crucial the millennial vote might be in the upcoming mid-term elections, a statewide poll released Tuesday shows Ted Cruz leading 47 percent to Beto O’Rourke’s 44 percent among likely Texas voters. Forty-nine percent of Texans between the age of 18-39 identify as supporting O’Rourke, while Cruz’s strongest support comes from voters ages 40 and above.

The Crosswind Texas Pulse Poll also hinted at some dissatisfaction toward Cruz from his own party: While the poll indicates an almost-equal party vote – with 81 percent Republicans favoring Cruz and 83 percent Democrats for his opponent – a surprising 15 percent of Republicans indicated their intent to vote for the Democrat. Forty-six percent of respondents who did not identify with either major party signaled their intent to vote for O’Rourke, versus 39 percent of non-affiliated or independent voters intending to pull the lever for Cruz.

Fifty-five percent of Hispanic voters and 57 percent of Black voters also expressed an intent to vote for O’Rourke, while 52 percent of white voters indicated their support for Cruz. However, 56 percent of voters who do not identify as white, Hispanic or Black also responded positively for Cruz. Only slightly more women overall support O’Rourke than Sen. Cruz, at 47 versus 42 percent.

“Texans are in for a nail-biter that has national implications,” said Crosswind CEO Thomas Graham. “O’Rourke is showing surprisingly strong support in traditionally red-state Texas, and Cruz has the edge in organization at this point, but clearly O’Rourke is gaining some ground.”

Meanwhile, Texans clearly favor incumbent Greg Abbott, who is holding steadily in his race against Lupe Valdez, although her 39 percent – to Abbott’s 52 percent – is likely to catch state GOP leaders by surprise. The poll results largely mirrored that of the senate race demographically and along party affiliations, although 45 percent of Texas women are showing more support for the current governor than for challenger Valdez’s 43 percent female support.

Among voters who do not identify as either Democrat or Republican, 47 percent seem more inclined to identify with Abbott on election day, versus 36 percent for Valdez.

Perhaps most surprising is that in both races, a percentage of likely voters identifying as “conservative” seem ready to jump ship to non-conservative candidates: 14 percent for O’Rourke, and 16 percent for Valdez. Those identifying as “liberal” seem less inclined to go against those stated values, with just 3 percent for Cruz and 6 percent for Abbott.

The Crosswind Texas Pulse Poll, a periodic survey of Texans’ opinions on a variety of cultural, economic and political issues, was conducted by Crosswind Media & Public Relations from September 6-9, 2018. The survey included 800 likely voters in Texas. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Of the 800 likely voters surveyed, 39 percent identified Republican and 27 percent identified Democrat, with 34 percent unidentified.

Asked about the most important issues facing Texas, the state’s likely voters mirrored responses from the 2016 Texas Pulse Poll, with 33 percent naming immigration and border security as the top issue. This is 4 percent higher than that issue’s ranking in the 2016 poll.

However, this year’s poll noted one striking change from two years ago: Whereas in 2016, 24 percent of likely voters placed economy and jobs as their second most important issue, this year health care and education reared as a priority. Seventeen percent named health care as their pressing issue, with 16 percent naming education, and the economy and jobs garnering almost half of last year’s ranking at just 13 percent.

“The prominence of more social issues of health care and education could help explain the closing gap between our high-profile candidates, since Democratic and liberal voters tend to identify more closely with social issues than economic ones,” explained Graham.

Crosswind also polled likely Texas voters on their overall opinions of the senate and gubernatorial candidates, with Cruz and O’Rourke coming out almost even on “very favorable” at 34 to 33 percent, respectively. However, 33 percent of likely voters hold a “very unfavorable” view of Cruz, with only 26 percent indicating that level of displeasure for O’Rourke.

In the governor’s race, Abbott’s “very favorable” rating jumped significantly compared to two years ago, at 38 percent versus 26 percent in 2016. However, his “very unfavorable” rating also climbed from 16 percent, to 24 percent. Indicating that she has more work to do, 16 percent of likely voters gave Valdez a “very favorable” rating, falling well below the 26 percent who view her as “very unfavorable.”

There is no way Valdez is even close to this number of a %. As per our last presidential election. Don't trust the polls. Onward and upward Abbott and Cruz. It will be rough for this great state to let Cali money and Millenials take over. 

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

ckhorn

ckhorn 208

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6 minutes ago, RayDog said:

It is notable in that poll that 15% of Republicans plan to vote for Beto. That does not count the ones who no longer identify as Republican who could be 10% according to national polling.

Since they polled 39% Republicans and 27% Democrats it is probably not very accurate.

I would believe that there are more Dems that have jumped shipped since the 2016 election than Republicans.

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14332

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36 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

Cruz signs are popping up all over my neighborhood this week, not that it means much. 

You probably should ask for your neighbors' permission before planting them in their yards.

Edited by DDD Dad
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LTbear

LTbear 4168

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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Was in Gainesville today (the most patriotic city in America, per some travel magazine) and saw 3 Beto signs - 0 Cruz.

One of the yards with a Beto sign also had signs for the "conservative Republican" state rep Drew Springer.  Interesting.

I never hear anyone mention Gainesville Texas. My parents were from there, mom still lives there, plus some aunts, uncles, and lone surviving grandparent. I don’t know about most patriotic, but at one point I believe Gainesville had the highest average resident age of any Texas city.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20934

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dubya doing some fundraising for GOP candidates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/11/george-w-bush-gop-2018-midterms-815750

Helping out in some heated Senate races -  Rick Scott (FL), Kevin Cramer (ND), Josh Hawley (MO), Mike Braun (IN).  And in Texas Pete Sessions and Will Hurd running for Congress.

Edited by Celery Man
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Tom

Tom 2959

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2 hours ago, ckhorn said:

There is no way Valdez is even close to this number of a %. As per our last presidential election. Don't trust the polls. Onward and upward Abbott and Cruz. It will be rough for this great state to let Cali money and Millenials take over. 

Cali money....funny.  There's only one real Texan in the Senate race and it's not Grandpa Munster.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89648

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2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Texans are in for a nail-biter that has national implications,” said Crosswind CEO Thomas Graham. “O’Rourke is showing surprisingly strong support in traditionally red-state Texas, and Cruz has the edge in organization at this point, but clearly O’Rourke is gaining some ground.”

giphy.gif

Maybe I’m missing it, but I haven’t seen any GOTV efforts from the GOP for Cruz like I have with Beto. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9865

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4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think what happens is that Trump shows up and holds a Trump rally.    The ultimate insult to Ted would be to completely ignore him.

Hell, the rally may raise more money for Trump 2020 than Rafael 2018.

Hell he might even do that out of habit without even realizing it.

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Mack Tripper

Mack Tripper 696

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dubya doing some fundraising for GOP candidates.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/11/george-w-bush-gop-2018-midterms-815750
Helping out in some heated Senate races -  Rick Scott (FL), Kevin Cramer (ND), Josh Hawley (MO), Mike Braun (IN).  And in Texas Pete Sessions and Will Hurd running for Congress.

I don’t see Ted on the list. There must be some mistake.
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Message Board User

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Some good stuff here.

These difficulties have come into sharp focus in Texas, where Cruz is fighting for political survival against O’Rourke, a rising liberal star who is raising record-setting sums of cash and attracting large crowds across a ruby-red state. At the end of June, O’Rourke had close to $14 million cash on hand to Cruz’s $9 million, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump and McConnell.

The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas. The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds.

“Other campaigns are going to be shorted due to the lackluster nature of the campaign,” said one White House official, speaking of the Cruz operation.

McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources would be there for him, according to people familiar with the talk. Trump is planning to campaign for Cruz in Texas next month.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC helmed by a former top McConnell aide, has recently taken a close look at Texas, conducting polling and summarizing its findings in a memo, according to Chris Pack, a spokesman for the group.

The organization also announced a seven-figure advertising campaign in five other states on Tuesday. The ads mostly target Democratic candidates.

A Cruz-McConnell partnership would have been unimaginable when Cruz called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor in July 2015 over strategy on legislation. A Cruz-Trump alliance would have seemed equally implausible after Cruz labeled Trump a “pathological liar” and declined to endorse him at the Republican National Convention.

Beyond Trump and McConnell, Cruz angered other Republicans with his unsuccessful effort to strip funds from the Affordable Care Act in 2013, which forced a 16-day partial government shutdown, and his support for outside groups that financed primary challengers to GOP senators.

“They are working together for political expediency,” said Rick Tyler, a former Cruz spokesman. “These people don’t like each other.”

Cruz spoke about his plight at a luncheon for Republican senators earlier this summer, according to people familiar with his remarks. One GOP senator said Cruz sought to convince them that he was facing a“real race,” citing polls and noting that O’Rourke was amassing cash.

Like others interviewed for this story, the senator spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

In Texas on Tuesday, Cruz told reporters he was eager to debate O’Rourke five times. “Typically, sitting officeholders don’t suggest that many debates. They don’t want to do any debates. But the reason I proposed that is, I think we owe it to the voters of Texas.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), whom Cruz declined to endorse in his 2014 primary, is hosting a fundraiser for Cruz in Washington next month.

Public polls have shown Cruz leading O’Rourke by single digits. David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has long championed Cruz, said donors he has spoken with have been caught off-guard by the tightness of the contest.

“I think, particularly in Texas, it’s like: ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think it would be a big race. Yes, we need to win it. I’ll help you do that.’ And the same around the country,” McIntosh said.

Speaking to reporters in Louisville on Tuesday, McConnell called the race “competitive” but said he expected Cruz to prevail. One advantage for any Republican in the state is the ability of voters to simply cast a straight-party-ticket ballot.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12395

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Interesting that Cruz seems suddenly more amenable to debates...those internals must be really, really sphincter-tightening for him.

https://abc13.com/politics/ted-cruz-discusses-possible-debate-with-beto-orourke/4215320/

Tuesday, Cruz was in Houston discussing energy policy at the Petroleum Club.

He answered questions about whether or not his opponent, O'Rourke, would debate between now and the Election Day.

"I think we owe it to the voters of Texas," Cruz said.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Beto has been within the margin of error in at least of three of the most recent polls. He is probably still truly down a few percentage points but in a race that close it becomes a turnout/GOTV contest. His issues with Latino voters are probably not going to get fixed by election day at this point so if he wins it is going to be because the young and the educated in the cities show up in droves and stop abdicating total control of elections to fox news olds. I'm still not sure I believe that will happen.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Mack Tripper

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Not sure what Cruz has to gain by debating Beto.
It’s not that Cruz would lose but the optics alone would be unfavorable.  Cruz is the embodiment of career big money corporate interest televangelist politician and Beto is the kid from your neighborhood everyone hopes makes it big someday. 

Yes and my recollection is that when Cruz was the insurgent against Dewhurst, they had quite a few debates.
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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27 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not sure what Cruz has to gain by debating Beto.

It’s not that Cruz would lose but the optics alone would be unfavorable.  Cruz is the embodiment of career big money corporate interest televangelist politician and Beto is the kid from your neighborhood everyone hopes makes it big someday. 

Robert Francis O’Rourke is the definition of a privileged white male.  The shit he and his family got away with in El Paso due to money and connections is something else.    Don’t let his cultural appropriating ass fool you.  

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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3 minutes ago, ERhine said:

 

Lol. Is his name listed next to yours in the dictionary?

Yeah. But I don’t pretend to be Mexican to dupe gullible voters.  

I also haven’t gotten away with being a burglar or drunk driver due to white privilege.  

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17670

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Robert Francis O’Rourke is the definition of a privileged white male.  The shit he and his family got away with in El Paso due to money and connections is something else.    Don’t let his cultural appropriating ass fool you.  

You’d rather be fooled by a faux evangelical huckster who only uses your vote to advance his career?

Takes all kinds I suppose.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105095

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Yeah. But I don’t pretend to be Mexican to dupe gullible voters.  
I also haven’t gotten away with being a burglar or drunk driver due to white privilege.  

I’m a person of the border. My family has been there, on both sides, since it was just a river. Back the FUCK OFF on the nickname issue. Everyone down there has a nickname. Including the white folks. And a shitload of those nicknames are in Spanish. There’s nothing fake about his name. There’s damned well some elitist cluelessness in attacking it, though.

If you’re looking for fake, look to the fucking Canadian pretending to be a Texan. Doesn’t get much more fake than that.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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1 minute ago, Chad Fuck said:


You’d rather be fooled by a faux evangelical huckster who only uses your vote to advance his career?

Takes all kinds I suppose.

I knew Cruz when. And he votes exactly like I would.  Against Pelosi and Schumer’s agenda.  I think his votes are aligned almost 100 percent with me. And that he’s disliked by the establishment is a bonus for me.  Robert Francis would be a solid vote for Chuck Schumer.  I don’t believe most Texas voters want that. 

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I’m a person of the border. My family has been there, on both sides, since it was just a river. Back the FUCK OFF on the nickname issue. Everyone down there has a nickname. Including the white folks. And a shitload of those nicknames are in Spanish. There’s nothing fake about his name. There’s damned well some elitist cluelessness in attacking it, though.

If you’re looking for fake, look to the fucking Canadian pretending to be a Texan. Doesn’t get much more fake than that.
 

There is a reason he’s branding himself as Beto in this election. And it’s not because of some childhood nickname. 

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