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Posted
1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

Cruz 46 Beto 42 with 4.3 MOE.

About how I expect it to break on election day -- I think Cruz wins by 4-5 points.  If Beto makes it less than 3 points, then he's exceeded my expectations.  And, again, a race that's at less than 5 points is still in play, and Beto CAN pull it out.  I don't think he will, but I think he COULD.  Which is more than I could say about any Dem in Texas in the past 20 years.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

That's about right to me.  GOLL and I have been repeating our Marko Ramius quote: "Personally, I'd give us...one chance in three."

1 in 3 is a better chance than any Dem has had in a generation, and that's worth playing out the string, for sure.

  • Like 1
Posted
About how I expect it to break on election day -- I think Cruz wins by 4-5 points.  If Beto makes it less than 3 points, then he's exceeded my expectations.  And, again, a race that's at less than 5 points is still in play, and Beto CAN pull it out.  I don't think he will, but I think he COULD.  Which is more than I could say about any Dem in Texas in the past 20 years.

Agree on all counts. And for what it’s worth, the GOTV operation that’s coming together for Beto during early voting is going to be something the likes of which Texas has never seen. Cruz can’t match it and doesn’t need to because his voters are more reliable, but IF the Beto team can execute what they are planning there is just an unprecedented level of shoe leather about to get laid down starting in 3 weeks.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Agree on all counts. And for what it’s worth, the GOTV operation that’s coming together for Beto during early voting is going to be something the likes of which Texas has never seen. Cruz can’t match it and doesn’t need to because his voters are more reliable, but IF the Beto team can execute what they are planning there is just an unprecedented level of shoe leather about to get laid down starting in 3 weeks.

I still think Beto should hire a bunch of juvenile delinquents to slash the tires of all the assisted living vans in Texas the night before Election Day.

  • Like 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I still think Beto should hire a bunch of juvenile delinquents to slash the tires of all the assisted living vans in Texas the night before Election Day.

Naah, just run a bunch of ads on Fox on behalf of Old Glory Robot Insurance, warning people to stay away from the polls because robots are known to hunt people at voting locations, and robots eat old people's medicine for fuel.

  • Like 1
Posted
3 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Neighborhoods have Facebook pages now?  I can't decide if this is a great idea I should implement or a horrible idea I should avoid like the plague.   Leaning horrible. 

did you miss this thread?

neighborhood facebook/nextdoor pages: bad for society, great for surly

Posted
57 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's about right to me.  GOLL and I have been repeating our Marko Ramius quote: "Personally, I'd give us...one chance in three."

1 in 3 is a better chance than any Dem has had in a generation, and that's worth playing out the string, for sure.

He's got better odds of winning than Trump had.

Posted
He's got better odds of winning than Trump had.
That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

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Well, like Trump's race, I think this one comes down to turnout, both plus and minus side.

Trump won because 1) people who might have voted for Hillary stayed home (for various reasons: she was uninspiring, they were still pissed about Bernie, they thought she had it in the bag so she didn't need their vote, etc.), and 2) Trump generated enough energy and excitement from some people who wouldn't ordinarily vote (think white, angry, working class).  Just a point or two -- literally tens of thousands of votes -- in both directions makes (and made) a difference.

The Cruz-Beto race is similar.  If 1) enough traditional Cruz voters stay home (lack of enthusiasm for Cruz, the utterly unlikable male Republican Hillary, peopel thinking it's a reliable red state, I don't need to vote, etc.) and 2) Beto can get enough young and minority voters who wouldn't otherwise vote to show up, then that's how Beto can win.  I think BOTH have to happen, just like with Trump.

  • Like 3
Posted
46 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

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I'm hoping that there is some sort of Bradley Effect at work.  It has been argued that the "hidden Trump supporters"  --  those who intended to vote for Trump but would not say so publicly  --  skewed the polls in 2016.   http://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/statpp/v8y2017i1p41-63n5.html    Maybe the opposite is going on here:  people intending to vote for Beto but unwilling to say that out loud and open themselves up to ridicule from their Republican friends and neighbors.  

Posted
I'm hoping that there is some sort of Bradley Effect at work.  It has been argued that the "hidden Trump supporters"  --  those who intended to vote for Trump but would not say so publicly  --  skewed the polls in 2016.   http://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/statpp/v8y2017i1p41-63n5.html    Maybe the opposite is going on here:  people intending to vote for Beto but unwilling to say that out loud and open themselves up to ridicule from their Republican friends and neighbors.  

 

Maybe. It's possible with younger folks raised in conservative families or maybe a traditionally R married woman who doesn't want to rock the boat at home. Though honestly it seems to me like most Republican defectors are pretty open about it because it's as much voicing objections with where the party has gone as it is about supporting O'Rourke.

 

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Posted
Well, like Trump's race, I think this one comes down to turnout, both plus and minus side.
Trump won because 1) people who might have voted for Hillary stayed home (for various reasons: she was uninspiring, they were still pissed about Bernie, they thought she had it in the bag so she didn't need their vote, etc.), and 2) Trump generated enough energy and excitement from some people who wouldn't ordinarily vote (think white, angry, working class).  Just a point or two -- literally tens of thousands of votes -- in both directions makes (and made) a difference.
The Cruz-Beto race is similar.  If 1) enough traditional Cruz voters stay home (lack of enthusiasm for Cruz, the utterly unlikable male Republican Hillary, peopel thinking it's a reliable red state, I don't need to vote, etc.) and 2) Beto can get enough young and minority voters who wouldn't otherwise vote to show up, then that's how Beto can win.  I think BOTH have to happen, just like with Trump.

I mostly agree with you, BUT it’s super important to consider that much higher turnout of young, female and minority voters was the exclusive difference for Doug Jones.

As repugnant as he was, Republicans turned out at normal levels for Roy Moore. Moore still lost.

Since this election is both viewed as a referendum on the president and crucial to the court packing strategy that Republicans sold their souls for I think we can anticipate a slightly higher-than-normal level of Republican turnout this midterm. They will show up and vote for Felito.

But like Alabama, if Beto can get huge turnout, that could be enough by itself. Both won’t happen, but it’s still possible.

Posted

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

  • Like 6
Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

As repugnant as he was, Republicans turned out at normal levels for Roy Moore. Moore still lost.

I'll quibble with you there.  1.7% of the vote was write-in candidates.  Presuming that only a small portion of those would have happened in an ordinary race, I think we can assume that around 1.5% of the vote was folks who 1) would otherwise have voted for the GOP candidate, but 2) were so disgusted by Moore that they lodged a protest vote (they just couldn't vote for the Dem).

The margin of victory in that race?  1.5%.

Jones would have been statistically dead-even with all of the increased female and minority turnout.  But he WON because he had that, AND 1.5% of GOP voters lodged a protest vote (and another 1-3% probably stayed home altogether, although that's really hard to quantify).  

Jones needed both.  Beto needs both.

Posted
26 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

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  • Like 2
Posted
7 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Abear, coozan. I am about 1/164th coonass. And my grandmother is from Beaumont, which drops me down to about a quarter. 

I grew up in Beaumont. I knew a Hebert who would pronounce it both ways.

Posted
3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

Pleas tell me Beto and the Fairlanes are on the bill. 

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

Willie actively campaigning for Beto is big. Don’t underestimate the power of Willie. 

Edited by JimmyJames
  • Like 2
Posted

Just watched Beto on Colbert.

Great job at keeping it focused on how he’s all about what’s right for Texas and how the campaign isn’t just about him, he’s just part of the team that’s running FOR something not just AGAINST something.

Plus, he looked GOOD.

  • Like 1
Posted

Beto 2020. This is how presidents come from nowhere. It strikes me as similar to Obama's meteoric rise following the '04 convention. Look at the Dem field. Old, not real exciting and who? litter that field of likely candidates. Beto will be a well known name after pulling this off in November, with recognition higher than all but Sanders, Biden and Warren. He will also have pros lining up to work for a put together candidate who obviously does well on TV, social media and face-to-face.

  • Like 1
Posted

Assuming he wins, Beto would have to go against everything he's been preaching to run for President 2 years into his senate term. But I guess at the end of the day he's a politician so I could see it happening.

Posted

Beto's numbers should rise after Colbert. The segment mocking Cruz's feeble attempts at attack ads was excellent. Reminded me of the Report days. Beto's interview was great. His positive message and willingness to work together for solutions came off very well. I'm sure the Cruz team will try to edit some of his responses on the wall and Dreamers. Might even get a Trump dump tweet.



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