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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106901

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

Cruz 46 Beto 42 with 4.3 MOE.

About how I expect it to break on election day -- I think Cruz wins by 4-5 points.  If Beto makes it less than 3 points, then he's exceeded my expectations.  And, again, a race that's at less than 5 points is still in play, and Beto CAN pull it out.  I don't think he will, but I think he COULD.  Which is more than I could say about any Dem in Texas in the past 20 years.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106901

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15 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/

 

538 model currently giving Beto a 35.6% chance

That's about right to me.  GOLL and I have been repeating our Marko Ramius quote: "Personally, I'd give us...one chance in three."

1 in 3 is a better chance than any Dem has had in a generation, and that's worth playing out the string, for sure.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26851

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About how I expect it to break on election day -- I think Cruz wins by 4-5 points.  If Beto makes it less than 3 points, then he's exceeded my expectations.  And, again, a race that's at less than 5 points is still in play, and Beto CAN pull it out.  I don't think he will, but I think he COULD.  Which is more than I could say about any Dem in Texas in the past 20 years.

Agree on all counts. And for what it’s worth, the GOTV operation that’s coming together for Beto during early voting is going to be something the likes of which Texas has never seen. Cruz can’t match it and doesn’t need to because his voters are more reliable, but IF the Beto team can execute what they are planning there is just an unprecedented level of shoe leather about to get laid down starting in 3 weeks.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12405

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Agree on all counts. And for what it’s worth, the GOTV operation that’s coming together for Beto during early voting is going to be something the likes of which Texas has never seen. Cruz can’t match it and doesn’t need to because his voters are more reliable, but IF the Beto team can execute what they are planning there is just an unprecedented level of shoe leather about to get laid down starting in 3 weeks.

I still think Beto should hire a bunch of juvenile delinquents to slash the tires of all the assisted living vans in Texas the night before Election Day.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106901

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2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I still think Beto should hire a bunch of juvenile delinquents to slash the tires of all the assisted living vans in Texas the night before Election Day.

Naah, just run a bunch of ads on Fox on behalf of Old Glory Robot Insurance, warning people to stay away from the polls because robots are known to hunt people at voting locations, and robots eat old people's medicine for fuel.

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elfenix

elfenix 34752

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Neighborhoods have Facebook pages now?  I can't decide if this is a great idea I should implement or a horrible idea I should avoid like the plague.   Leaning horrible. 

did you miss this thread?

neighborhood facebook/nextdoor pages: bad for society, great for surly

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ndawg

ndawg 1242

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57 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's about right to me.  GOLL and I have been repeating our Marko Ramius quote: "Personally, I'd give us...one chance in three."

1 in 3 is a better chance than any Dem has had in a generation, and that's worth playing out the string, for sure.

He's got better odds of winning than Trump had.

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gmr548

gmr548 16701

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Posted
He's got better odds of winning than Trump had.
That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106901

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Well, like Trump's race, I think this one comes down to turnout, both plus and minus side.

Trump won because 1) people who might have voted for Hillary stayed home (for various reasons: she was uninspiring, they were still pissed about Bernie, they thought she had it in the bag so she didn't need their vote, etc.), and 2) Trump generated enough energy and excitement from some people who wouldn't ordinarily vote (think white, angry, working class).  Just a point or two -- literally tens of thousands of votes -- in both directions makes (and made) a difference.

The Cruz-Beto race is similar.  If 1) enough traditional Cruz voters stay home (lack of enthusiasm for Cruz, the utterly unlikable male Republican Hillary, peopel thinking it's a reliable red state, I don't need to vote, etc.) and 2) Beto can get enough young and minority voters who wouldn't otherwise vote to show up, then that's how Beto can win.  I think BOTH have to happen, just like with Trump.

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Horndog

Horndog 2300

Posted
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46 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's right in the ballpark of the most optimistic predictions for Trump. Not to say that means it's going to happen, because Trump needed a perfect storm much like Beto does, but odds wise it seems similar. Unlike Trump, though, Beto has to win a straight up popular vote. All about GOTV in a race that close.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

I'm hoping that there is some sort of Bradley Effect at work.  It has been argued that the "hidden Trump supporters"  --  those who intended to vote for Trump but would not say so publicly  --  skewed the polls in 2016.   http://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/statpp/v8y2017i1p41-63n5.html    Maybe the opposite is going on here:  people intending to vote for Beto but unwilling to say that out loud and open themselves up to ridicule from their Republican friends and neighbors.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16701

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Posted
I'm hoping that there is some sort of Bradley Effect at work.  It has been argued that the "hidden Trump supporters"  --  those who intended to vote for Trump but would not say so publicly  --  skewed the polls in 2016.   http://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/statpp/v8y2017i1p41-63n5.html    Maybe the opposite is going on here:  people intending to vote for Beto but unwilling to say that out loud and open themselves up to ridicule from their Republican friends and neighbors.  

 

Maybe. It's possible with younger folks raised in conservative families or maybe a traditionally R married woman who doesn't want to rock the boat at home. Though honestly it seems to me like most Republican defectors are pretty open about it because it's as much voicing objections with where the party has gone as it is about supporting O'Rourke.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26851

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Well, like Trump's race, I think this one comes down to turnout, both plus and minus side.
Trump won because 1) people who might have voted for Hillary stayed home (for various reasons: she was uninspiring, they were still pissed about Bernie, they thought she had it in the bag so she didn't need their vote, etc.), and 2) Trump generated enough energy and excitement from some people who wouldn't ordinarily vote (think white, angry, working class).  Just a point or two -- literally tens of thousands of votes -- in both directions makes (and made) a difference.
The Cruz-Beto race is similar.  If 1) enough traditional Cruz voters stay home (lack of enthusiasm for Cruz, the utterly unlikable male Republican Hillary, peopel thinking it's a reliable red state, I don't need to vote, etc.) and 2) Beto can get enough young and minority voters who wouldn't otherwise vote to show up, then that's how Beto can win.  I think BOTH have to happen, just like with Trump.

I mostly agree with you, BUT it’s super important to consider that much higher turnout of young, female and minority voters was the exclusive difference for Doug Jones.

As repugnant as he was, Republicans turned out at normal levels for Roy Moore. Moore still lost.

Since this election is both viewed as a referendum on the president and crucial to the court packing strategy that Republicans sold their souls for I think we can anticipate a slightly higher-than-normal level of Republican turnout this midterm. They will show up and vote for Felito.

But like Alabama, if Beto can get huge turnout, that could be enough by itself. Both won’t happen, but it’s still possible.

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4th&Five

4th&Five 42005

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Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106901

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

As repugnant as he was, Republicans turned out at normal levels for Roy Moore. Moore still lost.

I'll quibble with you there.  1.7% of the vote was write-in candidates.  Presuming that only a small portion of those would have happened in an ordinary race, I think we can assume that around 1.5% of the vote was folks who 1) would otherwise have voted for the GOP candidate, but 2) were so disgusted by Moore that they lodged a protest vote (they just couldn't vote for the Dem).

The margin of victory in that race?  1.5%.

Jones would have been statistically dead-even with all of the increased female and minority turnout.  But he WON because he had that, AND 1.5% of GOP voters lodged a protest vote (and another 1-3% probably stayed home altogether, although that's really hard to quantify).  

Jones needed both.  Beto needs both.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21098

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26 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

giphy.gif

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3873

Posted
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3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

Pleas tell me Beto and the Fairlanes are on the bill. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores.

Also on the bill are Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill is unconfirmed, Nelson’s publicist said Wednesday evening.

Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website.

Willie actively campaigning for Beto is big. Don’t underestimate the power of Willie. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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softlynow

softlynow 1894

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Posted

Beto 2020. This is how presidents come from nowhere. It strikes me as similar to Obama's meteoric rise following the '04 convention. Look at the Dem field. Old, not real exciting and who? litter that field of likely candidates. Beto will be a well known name after pulling this off in November, with recognition higher than all but Sanders, Biden and Warren. He will also have pros lining up to work for a put together candidate who obviously does well on TV, social media and face-to-face.

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RPM

RPM 26628

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Posted

Beto's numbers should rise after Colbert. The segment mocking Cruz's feeble attempts at attack ads was excellent. Reminded me of the Report days. Beto's interview was great. His positive message and willingness to work together for solutions came off very well. I'm sure the Cruz team will try to edit some of his responses on the wall and Dreamers. Might even get a Trump dump tweet.

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