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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Lobo said:

any estimates on projected turnout for this general election for U.S. Senate in Texas?  Mid-term years have hovered in mid-4mm range.  I'm sure every Democrat the anti-Trump swell will bring out 10 million Texans.  But realistically, I'm not seeing any more than 5mm, tops.  Any other projections out there to share?  

If it's holding at 4%, and just assume it's that and not within the bandwidth or margin of error.  And you get 5,000,000 turnout.  200,000 votes swings the election. 

Let's get Dikeman 200,000.  A Libertarian in this state, even in mid-terms gets 100,000+.  Nevermind the frustration with Cruz and the GOP right now that many of us have who would never vote for a Democrat for U.S. Senate at this juncture.  

Dikeman is the focus, not the Beto yard-signs  

There are 5.5 million names in the Democratic Party VAN. That's the number of voters the GOTV campaign is going to attempt to reach in the month before the election. Likely voters might constitute only about half of that number. So if total turnout is ~5 million as you say, Beto wins this thing going away if even a small fraction of the intended GOTV targets wind up at the polls. Realistic turnout will be in the 7 million range, approaching 2008 numbers, including more Republican voters than normal.

https://betofortexas.com/plan/?source=texting

Quote

There are about 5.5 million voters who we believe are very likely to vote for Beto if they vote but who might not vote unless we contact them. Ideally, we want to contact them to make sure they do.

We call this list of voters who we think support Beto but might not vote if we don’t talk to them our “GOTV universe” – that just means a list of people who we want to follow up with during the GOTV phase of the campaign.

We’ll be fine tuning that universe up until the very end, so the numbers will change. But they’re pretty accurate right now, and we will definitely be reaching out to millions of people during GOTV.

The Texas Democratic Party gives candidates access to a database of voter records. That database currently contains 3.5 million cell phone numbers and about 3.2 million landline phone numbers associated with 5.5 million voters that we want to contact. So, if each texting volunteer sends 500 texts per volunteer shift and each calling volunteer calls for two straight hours per shift, we’d need to fill about 7,000 texting shifts and 11,250 calling shifts to call and text everyone once.

So, no, 200,000 libertarians are not the focus, nor should they be.

I was on a organizing conference call this past Saturday (I think by mistake) with a couple hundred new volunteers, mostly from out of state. About half planned on flying to Texas in the few weeks before the election to block walk (no shit) and much of the rest planned on phone banking. Maybe most of them don't show up, but we could be in the midst of a historic GOTV effort starting in October.

If the Quinnipiac poll tomorrow shows a tie or a small Beto lead for the first time then the sharks will smell blood in the water.

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

What an odd thing to say. 

Well, last presidential election was just so bad that it just makes it seem that it doesn't matter who you vote for. They're with gonna suck someone else's dick, or just ram rod you. I hope they don't, but they mostly do. Maybe Beto is different, lord knows how much Cruz's slob knobbing on Trump's dick was his death knell for ever trusting him.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted

hate to find myself murdered.  shit's the worst.

Quote

“The individual ... was at home in his apartment and found himself murdered,” Cruz said, using a bizarre choice of words. Guyger “may have been in the wrong. She’s facing legal proceedings, and if a jury of her peers concludes that she behaved wrongly, then she’ll face the consequences.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-quick-to-blame-dallas-officer_us_5ba02adfe4b046313fbe558c

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

Posted
Posted
Cruz, in an interview with Fox 26 Houston that aired on Sunday, said O’Rourke and other Democrats were too “quick to always blame the police officer.” 

“I don’t think we should jump to any conclusions,” the senator said. “It may have been just a horrific misunderstanding.” 



Is that shit really going to appeal to people? Misunderstanding? This guy needs to go.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90660

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, horncyclist said:
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Cruz seems to be working out of the GOP playbook that says “when in doubt, say something to drive up voting for the Democrats.”

This is borderline damaging gaffe. Not macaca or rape joke but seems like it has zero benefit for Cruz and will really turnout Dems.

It is very bad.

Hardcore Cruz supporters won’t understand why, but Cruz bitching that people are quick to judge a police officer who killed an unarmed black man in his own home, who was minding his own business, is about as dumb as you can get. 

If I had the money, I’d throw that up on a billboard with a tag line of “Ted Cruz wants you to vote for him in November.”

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

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Posted

I think this is the byproduct have having everything you say being vetted by Cambridge Analytica (or whatever replaced it for Cruz), polling and focus groups. He can't look at a shitty situation and call it what it is. Again, Cruz represents the very worst of our political representation-- on either side. Beto is the complete opposite.

Case in point, this voicemail calling to check in on a vet with PTSD that's circulating. Genuine empathy driven by being a human. Ted Cruz is incapable of that as far as I can tell.

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Nivek

Nivek 17415

Posted
Posted
I hope hope beto wins, cause if he's actually any good, well good. I'm gonna laugh if Beto wins, and he's a shit show as well, cause all the money y'all gave to him you might as well had a nice lookin' chick to peg y'all in the ass. 

You laugh on the sidelines at people who try to make things better by selecting a competent candidate and you liken that to a girl out of your league who enjoys exploring her sexuality to the fullest?
The horror.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13739

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It is very bad.

Hardcore Cruz supporters won’t understand why, but Cruz bitching that people are quick to judge a police officer who killed an unarmed black man in his own home, who was minding his own business, is about as dumb as you can get. 

If I had the money, I’d throw that up on a billboard with a tag line of “Ted Cruz wants you to vote for him in November.”

Cruz seems to be doing his best to push his own supporters away.  The Dallas murder is an layup.   As stated I assume Cruz has some numbers that tell him to support the police no matter what.    What’s weird is that this is an issue where can appeal to both sides with the right statement. 

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Nivek said:


You laugh on the sidelines at people who try to make things better by selecting a competent candidate and you liken that to a girl out of your league who enjoys exploring her sexuality to the fullest?
The horror.
 

Or that I don't trust him, but hey it not like the first thing I said I hope he does well if he's elected. It wouldn't matter how out of my league with the money y'all seem to love giving him.

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troph

troph 25238

Posted
Posted
Cruz seems to be doing his best to push his own supporters away.  The Dallas murder is an layup.   As stated I assume Cruz has some numbers that tell him to support the police no matter what.    What’s weird is that this is an issue where can appeal to both sides with the right statement. 

 

Building coalitions is what matters most. The GOP is fracturing at an alarming rate, and the core base is the southern conservatives and those likeminded in flyover country and in the rust belt. That’s 30% Of the population and probably the single largest block/identity of reliable votes on both sides. Hispanics don’t vote the same and I’m not sure about African Americans who do vote reliably but don’t not rep 30% of the voting population, gays are 10m or so active voters, unions, etc it’s a lot lower so it’s hard to let that 30% go. It’s rancid though, with no counter voice in the party as the briskets of the world and frankly the trophs and other progressives who could be fiscal conservatives with humane policies go away. All that’s left is racist, theocratic, Fox News bullshit - and yes they demand 100% support of the police.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

definitely, I think people should be comfortable with who they are, and think that they might be surprised at how supportive the people around them can be.

Oh definitely, but I also hope that you know what hyperbole is. Unless you're intentionally trying to belittle what I'm saying.

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Lurch

Lurch 5950

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Posted
Oh definitely, but I also hope that you know what hyperbole is. Unless you're intentionally trying to belittle what I'm saying.


You’re actively belittling an entire group of people that have nothing to do with this conversation as an attempted insult on another group.
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troph

troph 25238

Posted
Posted
just so we're clear - all that business about pegging you keep talking about, that's something that you've been thinking about because it is us who are secretly into that kind of thing, not that there's anything wrong with that?

The world would be a much better place if more of y’all took it up the butt.
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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 


You’re actively belittling an entire group of people that have nothing to do with this conversation as an attempted insult on another group.

 

What? People who like to get pegged? How did I insult them? Maybe I should have said paid to eat a shit sandwich. Unless you're comfortable with him going into office and not doing anything he says he's going to do. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

To the above poster that said 7+mm people will turnout to vote in a midterm...you are fucking insane.  It will be close to 6.0mm, but 7 is out of the question.  

The last 3 midterms in Texas:

2014 (granted, no Senate race but there was a Governor race):  4.7mm

2010: 4.9mm

2006: 4.4mm

I really don't see voter turnout spiking 50% just because of Trump.  I know you folks on the far left think it'll happen, but mid-term spikes of 50% in a solid state of one color or another (even with the opposition party being incumbent) just don't fucking happen.  It will likely approach 6.0mm, but 7mm is out of the fucking question.  

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21098

Posted
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55 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Oh definitely, but I also hope that you know what hyperbole is. Unless you're intentionally trying to belittle what I'm saying.

for the substantive part of what you said that isn't focused on your sexual and financial insecurities, I fully anticipate (in the event that he pulls off the unlikely victory) Beto lets people down with some positions that compromise towards the middle.  Or some general flavor of compromising on little things in the broader effort to make progress on the important things.  The things that Beto could do that would actually let me down would be if he were to do something to indicate that he's not serving the people of Texas, and if he does not allow himself to be held accountable to his constituents.  Even the Cruz attack ad on the gentrification thing - that's a situation where you have to weigh the broad upside of a downtown revitalization project versus  the negative impact it may have on people in his community.  And the ad shows him holding a town hall where people who supported him are letting him have it, and letting him know how much they feel like he is letting them down.  I want him to keep doing things like that.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

for the substantive part of what you said that isn't focused on your sexual and financial insecurities, I fully anticipate (in the event that he pulls off the unlikely victory) Beto lets people down with some positions that compromise towards the middle.  Or some general flavor of compromising on little things in the broader effort to make progress on the important things.  The things that Beto could do that would actually let me down would be if he were to do something to indicate that he's not serving the people of Texas, and if he does not allow himself to be held accountable to his constituents.  Even the Cruz attack ad on the gentrification thing - that's a situation where you have to weigh the broad upside of a downtown revitalization project versus  the negative impact it may have on people in his community.  And the ad shows him holding a town hall where people who supported him are letting him have it, and letting him know how much they feel like he is letting them down.  I want him to keep doing things like that.

Yeah, I'd hate another Cruz ordeal. If he can keep himself pretty much on par, I'd be happy. It's good to know that he was even willing to hear how he let those people down. Hope he keeps it up.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29595

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Cruz seems to be doing his best to push his own supporters away.  The Dallas murder is an layup.   As stated I assume Cruz has some numbers that tell him to support the police no matter what.    What’s weird is that this is an issue where can appeal to both sides with the right statement. 

Yeah, it really wouldn't be that hard to say something along the lines of "this appears to most likely be a horrible mistake, but we have to hold our officers to a higher standard. I don't know enough of the facts to assess whether the officer should be convicted of a crime, and as an American citizen she is entitled to due process, but this clearly demonstrates that she should not continue serving as a police officer."

That's the type of generic pablum that nobody could find much fault with, and which Republicans in the past would use to convince moderate voters they weren't the extremists that they actually were. The fact that they now don't even pretend to be anything other than what they are is alarming. I still can't really figure out whether it's because they think they've rigged the game to the point that they don't need to pretend, or if they're just a bunch of idiots and sociopaths who don't know how.

 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26245

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It is very bad.

Hardcore Cruz supporters won’t understand why, but Cruz bitching that people are quick to judge a police officer who killed an unarmed black man in his own home, who was minding his own business, is about as dumb as you can get. 

If I had the money, I’d throw that up on a billboard with a tag line of “Ted Cruz wants you to vote for him in November.”

But what you don't seem to understand is, he had DEVIL'S WEED in that apartment!!!

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23090

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah, it really wouldn't be that hard to say something along the lines of "this appears to most likely be a horrible mistake, but we have to hold our officers to a higher standard. I don't know enough of the facts to assess whether the officer should be convicted of a crime, and as an American citizen she is entitled to due process, but this clearly demonstrates that she should not continue serving as a police officer."

That's the type of generic pablum that nobody could find much fault with, and which Republicans in the past would use to convince moderate voters they weren't the extremists that they actually were. The fact that they now don't even pretend to be anything other than what they are is alarming. I still can't really figure out whether it's because they think they've rigged the game to the point that they don't need to pretend, or if they're just a bunch of idiots and sociopaths who don't know how.

 

I agree that a statement like that SHOULD be pretty uncontroversial, but there are millions of Texans who would immediately attack Cruz for "NOT BACKING THE BLUE!!!"  People get crazy about this stuff.

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