Cruz vs Beto

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

It was some research I did during the run-up to the 2016 election and posted on the old site.

Basically (off the top of my head) about 100,000 Texas voters die each year with ~75% of of those being republican voters for a net loss of 50,000 votes a year. It is easy to account for 175,000 new Latino voters since that is approximately the number graduating high school each year. There is a smaller group being naturalized each year along with a lot of other foreigners that tend to lean Democratic. It might be more accurate to say 175,000 to 200,000, but I seem to recall reading that the numbers will shrink a little sometime next decade. 

Spot checking your data that seems to check out.  Interesting stuff. 

[Brisketexan 104462]

Spot checking your data that seems to check out.  Interesting stuff. 

Well...the rub is the word “voters.” At our turnout rate, not many of either group is “voters.”

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well...the rub is the word “voters.” At our turnout rate, not many of either group is “voters.”

Word. But fast forward to 2020 so you can use presidential election voting rates of 2016 as a comparison it looks like the hypothetical Trump Hillary race of 2020 would have been something like 49-46 based on pop shift alone instead of the 52.2-43.2 it actually was.  

[atomheartbevo 89362]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well...the rub is the word “voters.” At our turnout rate, not many of either group is “voters.”

Might get out a lot of single-issue voters (gun control among the younger crowd, racial or immigration issues, etc.) thanks to Trump and the GOP here in 2018. 

[RayDog 682]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well...the rub is the word “voters.” At our turnout rate, not many of either group is “voters.”

There were 9 million voters in 2016. We can estimate how many die each year by looking at the average age of eligible voters, say 18 to 85 which encompasses 67 years. 9 million divided by 67 is 134 thousand. Now older people are more likely to vote and more likely to die, so my 100,000 estimate stated previously is likely off by 50,000, so make it 150,000 Texas voters die each year and they will be disproportionately Republican voters as they are predominantly older white voters. 

I do agree that Latinos straight out of high school or newly naturalized do not tend to vote, but over time enough of them will to add up.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Austin is a bit of an echo chamber with this election but I don't know a single person going to vote for Cruz and in my neighborhood  (Central Austin) all you see are Beto signs.

I know people that are staunch Rs that are planning on voting for him as they feel Cruz is such a tool.

Like I mentioned Austin is not representative of the state at large but I will not be shocked at all if Beto pulls it out.

 

[Tennesseehorn 101]

10 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Austin is a bit of an echo chamber with this election but I don't know a single person going to vote for Cruz and in my neighborhood  (Central Austin) all you see are Beto signs.

I know people that are staunch Rs that are planning on voting for him as they feel Cruz is such a tool.

Like I mentioned Austin is not representative of the state at large but I will not be shocked at all if Beto pulls it out.

 

You’re right and it not even close.   You are blinded by the left leaning area where you live.  I’m sorry but I find your “staunch Rs ” voting for Beto a little bit unbelievable—-in fact I don’t believe you. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

17 minutes ago, Tennesseehorn said:

You’re right and it not even close.   You are blinded by the left leaning area where you live.  I’m sorry but I find your “staunch Rs ” voting for Beto a little bit unbelievable—-in fact I don’t believe you. 

I live in Pemberton/Tarrytown area so it’s not south Lamar type deal. All I can tell you is there are a lot of folks voting Beto vs Cruz that haven’t voted D before. 

[RayDog 682]

51 minutes ago, Tennesseehorn said:

You’re right and it not even close.   You are blinded by the left leaning area where you live.  I’m sorry but I find your “staunch Rs ” voting for Beto a little bit unbelievable—-in fact I don’t believe you. 

If you actually read this site there are many individual Republican voters who now say they are independents or will otherwise consider non-Republican opponents. It would be interesting to see a poll on it rather than anecdotal testimony, but it is clear that the Republican base is shrinking.

I would love to see some real numbers on it. We should learn more in November.

[Tennesseehorn 101]

10 minutes ago, RayDog said:

If you actually read this site there are many individual Republican voters who now say they are independents or will otherwise consider non-Republican opponents. It would be interesting to see a poll on it rather than anecdotal testimony, but it is clear that the Republican base is shrinking.

I would love to see some real numbers on it. We should learn more in November.

Again my prediction is that the Rs hold the House and they increase their Senate majority by 3-4 seats, hell maybe 5-6.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Seems insanely early to make any predictions.  So much can happen between now and November.  Everything from a war, stock market crash, indictments, terrorist attack, natural disasters, plus the numerous scandals that are all but certain to emerge.

[SubliminalHorn 6647]

8 minutes ago, Tennesseehorn said:

Again my prediction is that the Rs hold the House and they increase their Senate majority by 3-4 seats, hell maybe 5-6.  

What!? You think your team will continue to win? I’m shocked. 

[Brisketexan 104462]

Again my prediction is that the Rs hold the House and they increase their Senate majority by 3-4 seats, hell maybe 5-6.  

Bookmarking this for November.

[Disco Strangler 1865]

2 hours ago, RayDog said:

If you actually read this site there are many individual Republican voters who now say they are independents or will otherwise consider non-Republican opponents. It would be interesting to see a poll on it rather than anecdotal testimony, but it is clear that the Republican base is shrinking.

I would love to see some real numbers on it. We should learn more in November.

Recent history has shown that polls are worthless.  People hide their true voting intention.  The Rooskies use the poll results to quell turnout - why vote, since Cruz is going to smoke Beto?  It’s hopeless, so Dems stay home.  Democracy would benefit from pollsters just going away.  

Fuck Cruz and his “tea party” ascension.  He is hated in DC and can’t function in any situation requiring compromise.  His first thought when elected (actually second thought after shutting down the government on taxing/spending “principals” that have since evaporated) was to run for even higher office rather than represent Texas. He would be our state’s most embassasing candidate but for Rick Aggie.  Cruz’ renowned Ivy League debate skills were bested by a guy who looked at the sun without protective eyewear and doesn’t know the words to “God Bless America.”

According to one dude, Cruz’ dad killed Kennedy and Cruz’ wife is crazy and not hot at all (seen hotter on campus).     As expected, Cruz fund the sum-bitch responsible for those statements and, like a true Texan, . . . worked the phone banks to get that guy elected as Supreme Comrade of the US.  I wish we could send this internet masturbator back to Canada, but they won’t take him because of his support for long-held (R) values of tariffs and trade wars against Canada and other allies.  

[Blotto 23418]

It's not easy to find a website taking action on the TX congressional elections. Only place I found is PredictIt which hosts a market of contracts that pay out $1 per contract when your side of the bet wins.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018#data

Right now, buying Beto costs 22 cents while Cruz costs 79 cents. I'd be happy with the 3.5-1 odds but they fuck you with a 10% fee of your profit, plus an additional 5% fee to withdraw winnings which seems a bit rapey.  If nothing else it can serve as an interesting reference point as we get closer to the election.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

15 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Austin is a bit of an echo chamber with this election but I don't know a single person going to vote for Cruz and in my neighborhood  (Central Austin) all you see are Beto signs.

I know people that are staunch Rs that are planning on voting for him as they feel Cruz is such a tool.

Like I mentioned Austin is not representative of the state at large but I will not be shocked at all if Beto pulls it out.

 

I was living in Inner Loop Houston in 2004 (still do, for that matter) and I was absolutely 100 percent certain that Kerry was going to win until one day I ventured just a little bit outside the loop and saw miles of Bush signs, and I realized that those voters extended all the way west through Bastrop, stopped for a breath in Austin, and then continued again all the way to El Paso. 

I was also seeing way more Laura Moser signs around my 'hood, and she got crushed 68-32 in the Dem runoff. Seriously, I saw about 100 Moser signs to every one Lizzie sign. 

People were proud of voting for Bush, so they put those signs out, and I think it was a good barometer to predict that election. When people are not proud of a candidate, there's no way to tell. People who love Beto and Moser were passionate, but people who will vote for Cruz and to a lesser extent Lizzie are not, so they don't bother with signs.

 

[Pancho 44358]

20 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I was living in Inner Loop Houston in 2004 (still do, for that matter) and I was absolutely 100 percent certain that Kerry was going to win until one day I ventured just a little bit outside the loop and saw miles of Bush signs, and I realized that those voters extended all the way west through Bastrop, stopped for a breath in Austin, and then continued again all the way to El Paso. 

I was also seeing way more Laura Moser signs around my 'hood, and she got crushed 68-32 in the Dem runoff. Seriously, I saw about 100 Moser signs to every one Lizzie sign. 

People were proud of voting for Bush, so they put those signs out, and I think it was a good barometer to predict that election. When people are not proud of a candidate, there's no way to tell. People who love Beto and Moser were passionate, but people who will vote for Cruz and to a lesser extent Lizzie are not, so they don't bother with signs.

 

I live in the loop and saw way more Lizzie signs than moser. Way more Lizzie ads on tv too.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Pancho Negro

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

13 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

I live in the loop and saw way more Lizzie signs than moser. Way more Lizzie ads on tv too.

Wow. Maybe I was seeing what I wanted to see, as I am an acquaintance of Laura's, and I really like her a lot....And I don't watch much TV. I live right next to the Heights and it was Moser Moser Moser

[The People’s Elbow 707]

4 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

Again my prediction is that the Rs hold the House and they increase their Senate majority by 3-4 seats, hell maybe 5-6.  

Wanna our something on the line that your entire prediction comes true?  

[Ghost of LL 15348]

10 hours ago, Disco Strangler said:

Recent history has shown that polls are worthless.  People hide their true voting intention.  The Rooskies use the poll results to quell turnout - why vote, since Cruz is going to smoke Beto?  It’s hopeless, so Dems stay home.  

I don't see any evidence to support this theory.

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

How anyone can possibly support Ted Cruz is intriguing.

[David Dennison 18603]

14 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

You’re right and it not even close.   You are blinded by the left leaning area where you live.  I’m sorry but I find your “staunch Rs ” voting for Beto a little bit unbelievable—-in fact I don’t believe you. 

The good and really funny news is, when Texas goes blue, it's never going back. It will be California 2.0.

[Tennesseehorn 101]

9 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I was living in Inner Loop Houston in 2004 (still do, for that matter) and I was absolutely 100 percent certain that Kerry was going to win until one day I ventured just a little bit outside the loop and saw miles of Bush signs, and I realized that those voters extended all the way west through Bastrop, stopped for a breath in Austin, and then continued again all the way to El Paso. 

I was also seeing way more Laura Moser signs around my 'hood, and she got crushed 68-32 in the Dem runoff. Seriously, I saw about 100 Moser signs to every one Lizzie sign. 

People were proud of voting for Bush, so they put those signs out, and I think it was a good barometer to predict that election. When people are not proud of a candidate, there's no way to tell. People who love Beto and Moser were passionate, but people who will vote for Cruz and to a lesser extent Lizzie are not, so they don't bother with signs.

 

BINGO

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

13 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

Again my prediction is that the Rs hold the House and they increase their Senate majority by 3-4 seats, hell maybe 5-6.  

lulz. Bookmarked. 

[David Dennison 18603]

Oh, and John Culberson needs to lose. He's a twenty year back bencher who doesn't do shit for the west side of Houston but collect a paycheck from the federal government.

[tantric superman 4667]

Yep, Bingo on the polling helpfulness of Beto signs.  It might be a great barometer of who might offer you a nice craft beer, but the almost dead sonofabitch republicans are going to show up on voting day, and the only thing that might help are younger republicans, who wouldn't put a sign out, who might vote for Abbott, and maybe Beto.

The people who Beto needs to vote, the mexicans and blacks, aren't going to spend 20 bucks on a beto sign.  They probably won't spend time going to the voting booth, either.

 

[Tennesseehorn 101]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

The good and really funny news is, when Texas goes blue, it's never going back. It will be California 2.0.

And if that actually happens Texas will be royally fucked.  NICE THOUGHT.

[David Dennison 18603]

1 minute ago, Tennesseehorn said:

And if that actually happens Texas will be royally fucked.  NICE THOUGHT.

It's going to be wonderful.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Tennesseehorn said:

And if that actually happens Texas will be royally fucked.  NICE THOUGHT.

Because D states are failing I guess. Blue states are doing fine. Red states are doing fine. Hysterics  are also doing fine I suppose.  

[Tennesseehorn 101]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Because D states are failing I guess. Blue states are doing fine. Red states are doing fine. Hysterics  are also doing fine I suppose.  

So you think California is doing fine?  Based on what?  San Fran is a shithole and getting worse.  The Medical system is damn near bankrupt.

 

Quote

If California’s the future, why are so many leaving?

A sobering study shows how life in the Golden State continues to get too expensive

By Patrick Sisson  Feb 27, 2018, 12:34pm EST

California, many say, is the future. A center for creative industries and new technology—look at its impressive rollout of electric vehicles and autonomous cars—it’s also a diverse state, pushing progressive policies that could be models for the rest of the country.

And people are leaving in droves for opportunities elsewhere.

The actual migration patterns in California aren’t quite as bad as that sounds—at least not yet. But a recent report by the California Legislative Analyst’s office looking at domestic migration patterns shows that cracks continue to form in the state’s bright facade. Between 2007 and 2016, a million more people have left the state than have moved in from other states.

Spread over a decade, that’s not terrible. It’s actually less severe than domestic out-migration during the previous decade. But the patterns of who’s moving in, and who’s moving out, underline some of the social and economic pressure that have made California, and other coastal areas, so prohibitively expensive.

While state leaders slowly respond to an affordable-housing crisis that’s been decades in the making—look at the polarized debate around state Sen. Scott Wiener’s bill to upzone housing around transit—Californians are finding their own solutions. For many, that includes moving.

New Californians are arriving from New York, Illinois, and New Jersey, while the Golden State’s existing residents move to Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon. For the most part, newcomers have left wealthy pockets of the Northeast, and those departing are heading to less-expensive, lower-tax regions of the Sun Belt.

California is seeing a net gain in high earners (making $110,000 or more) and the highly educated (graduate degrees or higher), while losing those representing the other end of the socioeconomic spectrum. Families with kids are headed for Texas. Blue-state college graduates are moving in. In other words, California’s experiencing what looks like statewide gentrification.

California’s experiencing what looks like statewide gentrification.

Due in large part to the state’s housing crisis, California is becoming wealthier and more economically stratified, as more of its citizens find it difficult to make ends meet. Every year, the state falls roughly 100,000 units short of what it needs to keep up with housing demand. That’s driving many middle-class residents out of the state, with little hope of returning.

A recent McKinsey Global Institute study, for example, found that a third of metro-area renters in California can’t afford what they pay, a sobering sign of the lack of new affordable housing being built.

And it’s not just Los Angeles County and the Bay Area—where a salary of $150,000, adjusted for median income, means you’re earning less than a middle-class wage—shedding residents. The state’s Central Coast is also hemorrhaging its working and middle classes. As one recent Texas transplant told Quartz, California is “a lost cause.”

The affordability crisis is so bad that without new units and cheaper options, Silicon Valley’s vaunted competitiveness and ability to hire the best talent will take a hit.

“Companies are starting to understand that if they don’t help with these problems, they eventually won’t be able to hire anybody to work here anymore,” Allison Arieff, New York Times columnist and editorial director at the nonprofit San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR), told Curbed.

States like Texas, and, to a lesser degree, Nevada and Arizona, have gained from California’s losses. People are leaving the Bay Area for Las Vegas, enticed by its attractive cost of living and the relatively low price of new homes there, which sell for between $200,000 and $300,000. (In fact, a Newsweek analysis found that the price of renting a moving truck from Vegas to San Jose costs $121, while one heading in the opposite direction is an unsubtle $1,990.)

Some of the states Californians are fleeing to offer a life without corporate or personal income taxes and home costs in the low six figures. Texas, for instance, has boomed, becoming one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. It’s now home to 867,000 new residents from California, who arrived between 2010 and 2016.

Californians rightfully celebrate the state’s incredible scenery, quality of life, and diversity. But without serious and sustained action on housing, that lifestyle will only be available to an increasingly select few who can afford it.

california-housing-crisis-rent-migration-texas

 

[David Dennison 18603]

So you think Texas is doing fine? Based on what? We have many of the same problems.

Edited June 6, 2018 by David Dennison

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

You’re an idiot and hardly worth responding to, but list states by gdp. What do you find?  List states by gdp per capita.  List sites by education. List states by subjective whatever’s like quality of living.  

What do you find?  Red states are doing fine.  Blue states are doing fine.  It’s part of being the wealthiest most powerful country in the world.  Partisan retards can cheer how they want. 

Edited June 6, 2018 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[tantric superman 4667]

I'll take some extra homeless people if it means getting some pacific coast and some mountains.

[Dr. Teeth 5813]

So California is doing too well?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[David Dennison 18603]

Beto is getting to him. 

[Texas73 420]

2 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

And if that actually happens Texas will be royally fucked.  NICE THOUGHT.

Republicans running for president will be royally fucked. 

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

Republicans running for president will be royally fucked. 

Trump will be the last Republican president for more than 20 years.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Trump will be the last president.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

On 6/2/2018 at 9:57 PM, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Cruz +11 in latest poll. Dream on Beto.

 

On 6/2/2018 at 9:58 PM, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Economy is looking pretty good right now, get back to me when his policies start tanking our economy. Ill hang up and listen. 

No you won’t “listen.”  You’ll just troll on. 

I see Vince McCoy Williams Darrell Shipley Tucker Mack brown and the cyclone guy are giving each other a lot of rep over a lot of worthless posts. It is a surly advantage over the shag that rep is broadcast for the rest of the site to see. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

The base isn’t gonna like this. 

[F250 28659]

Cruz called O'Rourke a hypocrite for supporting taxing businesses for sales across state lines, pointing to a furniture store owned by O'Rourke's mother that was found guilty in 2010 of tax law violations.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/06/06/beto-o-rourke-ted-cruz-texas-mom-attack-taxes/

 

 

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Just got an email from the Beto campaign claiming latest polls show he is within single digits.

[F250 28659]

I have to say that I really dislike Ted Cruz but Beto's politics really don't sit well with me. The internet tax thing (a Trump thing) is a reminder that Beto is a little too progressive for my tastes.

[Brisketexan 104462]

I have to say that I really dislike Ted Cruz but Beto's politics really don't sit well with me. The internet tax thing (a Trump thing) is a reminder that Beto is a little too progressive for my tastes.

General agreement.

But at this point, policy is taking a backseat to “are you remotely sane vs are you a complete fucking asshole.” The bar is mighty low. And it’s amazing how many assholes in politics today can’t clear it.

[tantric superman 4667]

What's that?

Oh, it's Latin.

[F250 28659]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

General agreement.

But at this point, policy is taking a backseat to “are you remotely sane vs are you a complete fucking asshole.” The bar is mighty low. And it’s amazing how many assholes in politics today can’t clear it.

I'm still undecided. I really like his immigration and war on drugs stance. Actually those positions are music to my ears. These are old positions for him and I believe he is sincere about them because he is from El Paso and is close to the issues. However, he does say shit that turns me off. I also really loathe Cruz and the Libertarian candidate is an aggy. So, I'm still up in the air.

I imagine there are other people still out there that are on the fence.

[Brisketexan 104462]

I'm still undecided. I really like his immigration and war on drugs stance. Actually those positions are music to my ears. These are old positions for him and I believe he is sincere about them because he is from El Paso and is close to the issues. However, he does say shit that turns me off. I also really loathe Cruz and the Libertarian candidate is an aggy. So, I'm still up in the air.
I imagine there are other people still out there that are on the fence.

Oh, I’m not on the fence. Beto all the way. Because my calculus above. And, there are SOME policy issues where Beto clearly has it right.

But mostly, I want my senator to be someone who actually has integrity, decency, courage, cares about Texas and Texans, and will go to bat for us. So...no contest.

[F250 28659]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I’m not on the fence. Beto all the way. Because my calculus above. And, there are SOME policy issues where Beto clearly has it right.

But mostly, I want my senator to be someone who actually has integrity, decency, courage, cares about Texas and Texans, and will go to bat for us. So...no contest.