Cruz vs Beto

[RPM 26228]

Did you change your Driver License address?

[Celery Man 20886]

your driver's license address does not need to match your voter registration address

[gmr548 16513]

8 minutes ago, RPM said:

Did you change your Driver License address?

No. You don't need to. I haven't lived at my DL address since 2012. I am in suspense, which I actually saw for the first time today after making that last post. Evidently I am good to vote but will have to confirm my address at the polls. Annoying, but good to have peace of mind. Seems like the state may not have been prepared for the surge in updates/registrations.

[RPM 26228]

I'm pretty sure they will be looking for anything to disqualify voters at the polls.

[Pancho 44479]

29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Neither my roommate or myself have gotten our updated cards after moving and changing our info two months ago. My info is correct online so I am not sure that it matters but it still worries me. Seems like a lot of people have such issues.

This happened to me last time and they let me vote with no issues. (Moved but cards had old address)

 

of course I knew the law and cans prepared to raise Cain should they have not let me vote.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

If your DL doesn’t match where you live, there’s nothing stopping you from getting a new DL.  And if it hasn’t matched your home address in 6 years, isn’t it time?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Beto not doing well on the nyt live poll.  With 200 responses, he’s down 54-42.  The site says to ignore results until they get to at least 250 but still hard to not read into it at 200.   I believe they normally go to 500 responses or at least that is how they handled house race polls.  This is one of the first senate polls they are running.

i imagine they will shut the poll for the night soon.

[Celery Man 20886]

Yeah, I think for Beto to win the stars will have to align.  His get out the vote campaign being incredibly effective (and the young people coming out like they never do), the polls missing a lot of Beto voters, and some news developments that shift the tide a bit in his direction.  I'm holding out hope but I'm not optimistic.

[troph 24562]

Yeah I’m getting worried we aren’t gonna make it on this one. The Kavanaugh crap has me twisted around backward.

[Pancho 44479]

1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

What is interesting is the valley/border is more red than I would have guessed (along with El Paso) and Dallas suburbs/North is very heavy red, south blue as one would guess and same with Houston. Obviously the hinterlands of anything West of Ft Worth is all red.

Not sure why you care. Your guy is gonna win.

[Satchel 6908]

Texas and California have roughly the same demographics, yet, one is red and the other is blue. Poor Californians have expanded Medicaid and poor Texans don't. It's time to vote, poor Texans.

[Celery Man 20886]

Now I feel bad for kicking off the doom and gloom posts.  I think there's still a shot.  Right now is a low point.  The final sprint started this weekend.  I am holding on to some small glimmer that the recent polls are colored by the GOP base being riled up (two weeks before early voting and a month before a larger portion of them vote).  I still have a hard time believing that phone polling is a great measure.  I just need some good news to bring me some hope back for our country at large.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I looked at 7 of those live polls and the Republican won all of them. They show you the demographics and everything seems right, but the overall results seem a bit off. Maybe republicans just pick up for random pollsters more often. Maybe it’s a red wave. Who the hell knows, just show up and vote.

[ERhine 1894]

oh man I gotta go back and watch that ad.  But also, Win Butler performing with a cadre of Houston rappers (as DJ Windows 98)
 

Whatever a DJ Windows 98 is gave an interesting performance. I’m not sure if I should emphasize interesting or performance. That’s about the nicest I can say.

In expected news, Beto gave a great speech. It was good to finally see him live.

Wished the Houston rappers involved performed more than 5 songs total.

[Celery Man 20886]

3 minutes ago, ERhine said:

 

Whatever a DJ Windows 98 is gave an interesting performance. I’m not sure if I should emphasize interesting or performance. That’s about the nicest I can say.

In expected news, Beto gave a great speech. It was good to finally see him live.

Wished the Houston rappers involved performed more than 5 songs total.

 

Win Butler is the lead singer of the Arcade Fire.  His "dj" set was fairly weak, although I thought he did a pretty good job playing The Suburbs and that one Arcade Fire with the shout chorus, given that he was solo and normally there are like 36 people in the band.  Of course, I was just watching the live stream.  Cool that you went out.

[ERhine 1894]

Not to derail, but thought Suburbs was best thing he did. The rest was awkwardly pressing play on his laptop/hitting a tambourine/air guitarist at front of stage.

[Bruh Man 3160]

someone in the predictit comments said the NYT poll has Cruz winning 18-29 yr old by 70%. is that true? also only down 8 in the valley? 

[Celery Man 20886]

It looks like that's what they have for the results so far.  I don't believe that that is accurate.  Of course, they've talked to 12 people in that age range.

[Mack Tripper 696]

someone in the predictit comments said the NYT poll has Cruz winning 18-29 yr old by 70%. is that true? also only down 8 in the valley? 

My dudes, you guys are sweating a poll where 200 people have responded so far. The 18-29 demo has all of 12 responses. Chill the fuck out and keep working.

[Mack Tripper 696]

Oh and I didn’t make it to the event in the Heights today, but I did make the rally at the Berry Center way the fuck up in Cypress. There was quite a crowd for it being a rainy Monday afternoon in Cypress. Lots of teachers in the house being that it was a school holiday.

[ERhine 1894]

Oh and I didn’t make it to the event in the Heights today, but I did make the rally at the Berry Center way the fuck up in Cypress. There was quite a crowd for it being a rainy Monday afternoon in Cypress. Lots of teachers in the house being that it was a school holiday.

Cypress crowd:


Rally tonight:

[Bruh Man 3160]

reading through that cbs poll, more people found cruz honest/truthful than beto...smdh.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0f3cqnuscn/cbs_20181007_TX_final.pdf

Edited October 9, 2018 by Bruh Man

[chainsaw 9838]

3 hours ago, Celery Man said:

being a nervous guy, though, I would consider going to the tax office and registering at the counter or with any of the numerous people camped outside the door waiting to help you out.  In Travis, that is at 5501 Airport.  East side of the building (or north?  closer to 35 side).

Este.

[GRHorn 105]

17 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

reading through that cbs poll, more people found cruz honest/truthful than beto...smdh.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0f3cqnuscn/cbs_20181007_TX_final.pdf

Interesting poll responses.

Maybe the DWI/leaving scene thing did resonate?  Not sure why else they wouldn’t trust Beto. Most people didn’t know about him 6 months ago. 

A few things stuck out to me. 

1) Cruz is preferred on every polled issue, but especially immigration, guns, crime. 

2) Illegal immigration is seen as problem by 83% of respondents. That’s a huge number. 

3) 57% think Donald Trump’s immigration policies are just right or NOT TOUGH ENOUGH vs 43% that say they’re too harsh. 

Given the media and online uproar about everything Trump and immigration the last two numbers surprised me.  That’s even with me personally discounting media bias and obvious pushing of issues. It hasn’t been as effective as they would’ve liked. 

Long story short, if the makeup of this poll is close to relevant Beto still has almost zero shot.

[GRHorn 105]

Also, I believe is was Ghost of LL who said it was plausible that Abbott was only up by single digits because of a single poll a while back. His RCP avg lead is 19.4.

[Michael Knight 12898]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Interesting poll responses.

Maybe the DWI/leaving scene thing did resonate?  Not sure why else they wouldn’t trust Beto. Most people didn’t know about him 6 months ago. 

A few things stuck out to me. 

1) Cruz is preferred on every polled issue, but especially immigration, guns, crime. 

2) Illegal immigration is seen as problem by 83% of respondents. That’s a huge number. 

3) 57% think Donald Trump’s immigration policies are just right or NOT TOUGH ENOUGH vs 43% that say they’re too harsh. 

Given the media and online uproar about everything Trump and immigration the last two numbers surprised me.  That’s even with me personally discounting media bias and obvious pushing of issues. It hasn’t been as effective as they would’ve liked. 

Long story short, if the makeup of this poll is close to relevant Beto still has almost zero shot.

Texans deserve Ted Cruz

[horncyclist 1386]

Any poll nerds know how they deal with people who won't answer a number they don't recognize? I'd imagine some spam blockers would pickup polling. Seems like this would skew the data significantly. Seems like olds would be more likely to answer everything.
Eve
Not saying polls are wrong but just wondering.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

58 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Any poll nerds know how they deal with people who won't answer a number they don't recognize? I'd imagine some spam blockers would pickup polling. Seems like this would skew the data significantly. Seems like olds would be more likely to answer everything.
Eve
Not saying polls are wrong but just wondering.

The NYT live polls show the number of respondents for each age group and what their target is. I don’t know how they account for their sample being 100% people who are willing to pick up these phone and talk to a stranger. I’ve now looked at 8 of the live polls and all were won by the republican. Me thinks republicans are more willing to talk to strangers. 

[horncyclist 1386]

The NYT live polls show the number of respondents for each age group and what their target is. I don’t know how they account for their sample being 100% people who are willing to pick up these phone and talk to a stranger. I’ve now looked at 8 of the live polls and all were won by the republican. Me thinks republicans are more willing to talk to strangers. 

Or too dumb to not answer and let it go to voicemail.

Tennessee is showing a huge lead for Blackburn, which would also be an outlier.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

1 hour ago, horncyclist said:

Any poll nerds know how they deal with people who won't answer a number they don't recognize? I'd imagine some spam blockers would pickup polling. Seems like this would skew the data significantly. Seems like olds would be more likely to answer everything.
Eve
Not saying polls are wrong but just wondering.

Yes.  I think they adjust polls to overweighh under represented groups.  So if they expected 10% of their poll to be younger voters but it was only 8%, then they give that 8% more weight so that it accounts for 10%.  Believe that occurs with other demographics as well.    

I understand the math and results support poll accuracy but it’s hard to believe that 500 responses across the state tell the story.  Talk to 10 people in the Valley and now you understand how that region will vote.   But also why not talk to 2000 people to lower the margin of error? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

As for the younger crowd not answering, the nyt poll shows that ages 18-29 only answered 1 in 151 attempts.  30-64 1 in 55.   65+ 1 in 41.   And it’s not like younger people don’t have their phone nearby ready to pick up.   I guess pollsters attempt to call more younger people to compensate for this issue.

[horncyclist 1386]

As for the younger crowd not answering, the nyt poll shows that ages 18-29 only answered 1 in 151 attempts.  30-64 1 in 55.   65+ 1 in 41.   And it’s not like younger people don’t have their phone nearby ready to pick up.   I guess pollsters attempt to call more younger people to compensate for this issue.

Since they adjust for age tge problem would be if those that don't answer are more likely to vote Dem/Beto. Could be the case? IDK.

[Homercles 10205]

I spent 5 years at two companies doing tech support for a living...I hate using the phone and with the Robo crap, not recognizing a number = not picking up.

[Dahobbs 17447]

7 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Also, I believe is was Ghost of LL who said it was plausible that Abbott was only up by single digits because of a single poll a while back. His RCP avg lead is 19.4.

That wasn't what he said. He said the poll was accurate in so far as it predicted the result: Abbott winning. 

[MissingInAction 24822]

Online shows i am registered but i dont have a card. A valid DL is good enough , right, as long as im registered, right?

Edited October 9, 2018 by MissingInAction

[Js1 85110]

4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Online shows i am registered but i dont have a card. A valid DL is good enough , right, as long as im registered, right?

Driver's license

Passport

CHL

All acceptable in place of your actual voter registration card

[ERhine 1894]

For anyone who needs to double check if you’re registered:

https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do

[Pancho 44479]

Beto’s ground game?

 

[Horn Dog 9672]

1 hour ago, Homercles said:

I spent 5 years at two companies doing tech support for a living...I hate using the phone and with the Robo crap, not recognizing a number = not picking up.

Yup thats me.  You call my line and you are not one of my contacts then you are getting voice mail and I will decide to call you back if you leave a message.  I haven’t answered a unknown number in a long time.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

18 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup thats me.  You call my line and you are not one of my contacts then you are getting voice mail and I will decide to call you back if you leave a message.  I haven’t answered a unknown number in a long time.

You aren’t alone. They had to call 11,360 people to get 200 responses so far in the Beto poll. I will say that they do as good of a job as they can with demographics, areas of the state, etc. I just wonder if the 11,160 that didn’t answer the phone see politics differently as a group than the ones that answer random numbers.

[M12BH 544]

I am not gruntled.  Maybe it's the eternal pessimist in me.  But like Troph, this Kavanaugh thing has me rattled.  I mean, how in the blue hell could that cluster have COST the Democrats?

No don't answer that.  I already know. I see it every day.  It's kind of not fun walking around and knowing that statistically, 1/3 of everyone I see would consider me a liar, a con, a freak, a Soros shil, a loony, a liberal propagandist operative, and a fraud if I told my story.  Anyway we'll find out in a few weeks.  Operation M12/M12BH pop-up office is in full swing over here.  

[irishtexan 11445]

Should the impossible happen and Beto win, I'd really like to see him walk up to the podium and say "take the loss, pussy" and then just leave. 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

6 minutes ago, M12BH said:

I am not gruntled.  Maybe it's the eternal pessimist in me.  But like Troph, this Kavanaugh thing has me rattled.  I mean, how in the blue hell could that cluster have COST the Democrats?

Same here.  Completely disillusioned with November now and fully expect a "red wave" that seemed impossible even two weeks ago.

[Chad Fuck 17566]

Play until the whistle blows people.

 

[tantric superman 4667]

1 minute ago, Chad Fuck said:

Play until the whistle blows people.

 

The whistle blew the minute Trump was elected.  This is all post game shenanigans.

(R. Sherman signaling when the Dems might have a prayer of getting back in the White House.)

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

The Republicans did a good job of pivoting the conversation that it didn't really matter whether or not Kavanaugh assaulted someone.  the only thing that mattered was that Feinstein was playing politics.  Kudos to the Republicans for selling that narrative.  It also hurt the Democrats that they ultimately had zero chance of winning.  Even if Kavanaugh would have withdrawn his nomination, Trump would have nominated someone with the exact same judicial philosophy.   

Finally Democrats let some of their supporters hope this could somehow stretch out until January where they could stop Trump with a new Dem Senate majority.  Now that the SCOTUS battle is lost, a portion of Dem momentum and enthusiasm is naturally gone.  They played a risky game and lost.     Especially a game that the outcome was set before the game started.

[Chad Fuck 17566]

Nah.  The blue wave is actually coming to the House.

It may lap at the Senate.  

A lot can happen in a month, much less two years. 

 

[bonnieblue 542]

 

[horncyclist 1386]

 

Awesome. wish there was a TV version.

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Republicans did a good job of pivoting the conversation that it didn't really matter whether or not Kavanaugh assaulted someone.  the only thing that mattered was that Feinstein was playing politics.  Kudos to the Republicans for selling that narrative.  It also hurt the Democrats that they ultimately had zero chance of winning.  Even if Kavanaugh would have withdrawn his nomination, Trump would have nominated someone with the exact same judicial philosophy.   

Finally Democrats let some of their supporters hope this could somehow stretch out until January where they could stop Trump with a new Dem Senate majority.  Now that the SCOTUS battle is lost, a portion of Dem momentum and enthusiasm is naturally gone.  They played a risky game and lost.     Especially a game that the outcome was set before the game started.

Good point. In some ways reminiscent of the Cruz/Lee shutdown Govt gambit.