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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

Posted
Posted

Here's 538's summary of the race. Has nice explanations of their model and how they rat the various polls and consider other factors. Also lists other prominent election predictors, Cook, Sabato. Cook still has it as a tossup for what it's worth.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, horncyclist said:

He's very close. Nate Silver was in an article a day or two ago talking about how the media is fucking no up polling again. In his model, Beto went from 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 5 chance in the last month or so. That's not that huge of a change but the media narrative has been Beto is done.

What is 7 points in terms of votes?

I was curious about this comparison and looked up some numbers. How much did 2016 Presidential polls vary from the actual outcome in some of the battleground and surprise Trump states. The first number is the RCP average for that state before the election, the 2nd is the actual result. 

Michigan- Clinton +3.4—> Trump 0.3

Florida- Trump 0.2–> Trump 1.2

Ohio- Trump 3.5–> Trump 8.1

Wisconsin- Clinton 6.5–> Trump 0.7

Pennsylvania- Clinton 1.9–> Trump 0.7

So out of the 5, you had one that had a seven point swing. In Wisconsin Clinton actually stayed at 46%, Trump just gained some undecideds and votes off Johnson and Stein. I would think it would be harder to flip in just a two person race, but who knows?

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33834

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22 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There is no way to really predict this election. 

There’s too much uncertainty in the variables with regards to turnout and unlikely voters.  Additionally, state polling is notoriously sketchy. 

IMO the best indicator is the performances in the special elections over the past year.

Agreed. if 2016 didn't convince you that traditional polling is obviously not a good indicator anymore, then well, I don't know what to tell you. There is obviously a different electorate when traditionally conservative states start electing trans representatives over good ole boys. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45546

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3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Agreed. if 2016 didn't convince you that traditional polling is obviously not a good indicator anymore, then well, I don't know what to tell you. There is obviously a different electorate when traditionally conservative states start electing trans representatives over good ole boys. 

I think "traditional polling" doesn't even mean anything any more.  Obviously, land lines are not a good means for accessing a reasonable cross section of the population.  Then again, neither is the internet.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10911

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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

In Wisconsin Clinton actually stayed at 46%, Trump just gained some undecideds and votes off Johnson and Stein. I would think it would be harder to flip in just a two person race, but who knows?

Or  those who were embarrassed to admit they voted for Trump to pollsters who were Trump voters all along.

 

I've donated to Beto and I'm voting for Beto, but he ain't winning. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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I remember the backlash Cruz got from the Trumpkins when he pulled that stunt at the 2016 convention.  

They went full meltdown on him.

He will never get elected in Texas again they said.  

No way he keeps his Senate seat in 2018 they said.  

It’s remarkable how short sighted and forgetful the Trumpublicans are. 

Now they need him more than ever. 

Why? Because reasons.

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gmr548

gmr548 16491

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Posted
I remember the backlash Cruz got from the Trumpkins when he pulled that stunt at the 2016 convention.  
They went full meltdown on him.
He will never get elected in Texas again they said.  
No way he keeps his Senate seat in 2018 they said.  
It’s remarkable how short sighted and forgetful the Trumpublicans are. 
Now they need him more than ever. 
Why? Because reasons.
Aggy is as aggy does.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

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Dreamers have pretty solid support in Texas.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texans-support-citizenship-children-brought-country-illegally-poll-says/

But a new Quinnipiac Poll found 55 percent of self-identified Texas Republicans supported allowing these so-called Dreamers to stay in the United States with a path to citizenship. Overall, 71 percent of Texans who responded to the poll backed the idea of allowing these young people to stay in the country. Ninety percent of the Democrats surveyed supported the Dreamers, but the strong support crossed ethnic and racial lines, as well as age groups, the survey showed.

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gmr548

gmr548 16491

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Posted
Cruz has had some pretty effective ads in Houston (and I'm not a Cruz guy).  The voting against Hurricane Harvey relief is pretty damning.
Again, not a Cruz supporter here but I think Ted wins this one 55-45.  Maybe 54-46.
Trump got 52 percent of the vote in the general, and we haven't seen any polls with Cruz past that as far as I know. I highly doubt Cruz improves on that number. He isn't going to attract independents in droves and Beto certainly has an enthusiasm advantage. Cruz probably does win, but I'm thinking something along the lines of 50-52 to 45-48. It's still close enough that Beto could pull some sort of 50-48 type upset though.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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14 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

The beauty of the race is that even if Cruz wins, the GOP loses, because they had to divert resources to keep him alive that would've otherwise gone to other battlegrounds.

Win or lose, Beto built a revitalized Democratic infrastructure throughout the entire state of Texas.  That will pay massive dividends down the road if it’s not squandered.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3204

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49 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Win or lose, Beto built a revitalized Democratic infrastructure throughout the entire state of Texas.  That will pay massive dividends down the road if it’s not squandered.

I think aggy said something like this when they lost to Clemson 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25897

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1 hour ago, smwhorn said:

Cruz has had some pretty effective ads in Houston (and I'm not a Cruz guy).  The voting against Hurricane Harvey relief is pretty damning.

Again, not a Cruz supporter here but I think Ted wins this one 55-45.  Maybe 54-46.

Only if you're a complete simpleton and fail to consider what else was (and wasn't) in that bill. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, troph said:

If it’s not squandered.

It’s not a dem infrastructure, it’s one candidates. What he and the party do with it is uncertain at best.

This is where I land as well. How many once-in-a-generation charismatic personalities will the D machine get? This turn out, this excitement, this cash influx, this grassroots, this GOTV, the volunteers, the resources, the energy and time...it's not just going to be given to just any Boring Tom Democrat, Old Dick Establishment D or Wild Harry Socialist. Especially if Beto loses and a lot of the middle ground folks who invested and helped think "dang, i put in a lot of energy, time and money. I won't be doing that again unless it's for the RIGHT person who can win".

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