Cruz vs Beto

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kochs are scared it seems. 

I remember reading an article during the 2016 election about these shitheads saying despite not liking Trump, they were not going to spend money to "campaign" against him.  At the time I thought that not trying to buy an election was a nice gesture on their part.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I remember reading an article during the 2016 election about these shitheads saying despite not liking Trump, they were not going to spend money to "campaign" against him.  At the time I thought that not trying to buy an election was a nice gesture on their part.

I think they care more about the legislative power of Congress. 

[Thermos H. Christ 478]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Had an Uber driver named Jesus the other night. He was born and raised in El Paso and has 4 siblings that still live there. He works for a Methodist hospital near Katy and all 4 of his kids are college graduates. Really nice dude.

I brought up Beto's name, and he literally had never heard of him.  Bah. 



That's why I've been throwing some money Beto's way, and would encourage others to do the same. Beto's biggest obstacle to victory right now is that people haven't heard of him. Money is a particularly effective tool for solving that specific problem.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Agree and why my point #1 on the previous page is so important. The political participation rate in Texas is shockingly low and much lower than other states. The yuge number of votes sitting on the sidelines are up for grabs for whoever puts in the work (and money).

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Had an Uber driver named Jesus the other night. He was born and raised in El Paso and has 4 siblings that still live there. He works for a Methodist hospital near Katy and all 4 of his kids are college graduates. Really nice dude.

I brought up Beto's name, and he literally had never heard of him.  Bah. 

 

 

 

 

 

So, uhh, Jesus took the wheel?

 

[F250 28674]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Had an Uber driver named Jesus the other night. He was born and raised in El Paso and has 4 siblings that still live there. He works for a Methodist hospital near Katy and all 4 of his kids are college graduates. Really nice dude.

I brought up Beto's name, and he literally had never heard of him.  Bah. 

 

 

 

 

 

I imagine a white uber driver in Austin named Topher probably has never heard of Lloyd Doggett.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Does this move the needle at all for Beto? He’s clearly on the right side of things but does it translate to votes? 

[RayDog 682]

6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

The US needs legislation to meet the ideals of international right to asylum. The current administration's policy of criminally prosecuting asylum seekers for simply entering the country, regardless of how they do it, for the purpose of seeking asylum, must end.

[Pancho 44437]

Beto has got to get some ads going, billboards up in every major city in the state, and start to hold larger rallies now that he's done with the 254 county thing.  Since he refused to take PAC money, this might be an issue.  Can't be 5 months away and having people in major cities not knowing who you are. 

I wear his shirt a good 2-3 times a week just out and about.  Seeing lots of yard signs in the loop as well. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

7 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Does this move the needle at all for Beto? He’s clearly on the right side of things but does it translate to votes? 

He got plenty of exposure at the detention centers in the media while Ted Cruz was playing basketball.

[RayDog 682]

Beto also had a good appearance on Rachel Maddow, and other press, so he got a lot of good publicity.

[Ghost of LL 15469]

38 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Beto has got to get some ads going, billboards up in every major city in the state, and start to hold larger rallies now that he's done with the 254 county thing.  Since he refused to take PAC money, this might be an issue.  Can't be 5 months away and having people in major cities not knowing who you are. 

I wear his shirt a good 2-3 times a week just out and about.  Seeing lots of yard signs in the loop as well. 

Yes, I agree, but only to some extent.

Beto had about $8M cash on hand as of the last campaign finance report.  Let's assume it's a little higher now--say $10M.  

From everything I've heard, it takes about $1M per week to run a credible statewide television ad campaign in Texas.  That means that with the cash he probably has on hand right now, Beto can run a good statewide television ad campaign for the ten weeks leading up to election day, or from August 28.

And that's what he needs to do: keep his television-ad powder dry until that last ten weeks.  For one thing, people won't really be paying attention until then.  So any money spent before then will not be as effective as it will be after August 28.

But perhaps more importantly, what's the downside?  It's not like Cruz is doing anything to define Beto right now.  Beto's problem is that he's unknown, not that he's known and unpopular (that's Cruz's problem).  Beto is a blank slate that Cruz isn't writing on.  Until Cruz does, there's absolutely no reason for Beto to waste resources prematurely.

[RayDog 682]

Beto had $6.7 million in donations in the first quarter. He should have at least that much this time, but I would guess he tops $8 million more through the end of June, with a similar amount in the third quarter.

He should be able to afford a good TV campaign in the run-up. A few PACS like Fire Ted Cruz will also run ads.

[Ghost of LL 15469]

13 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Beto had $6.7 million in donations in the first quarter. He should have at least that much this time, but I would guess he tops $8 million more through the end of June, with a similar amount in the third quarter.

He should be able to afford a good TV campaign in the run-up. A few PACS like Fire Ted Cruz will also run ads.

Yeah--but what's the cash on hand?  I don't think he's burning cash at a high rate, but he will be.  

He needs to have at least $10M cash on hand to run a statewide television campaign from August 28.  But he's going to need another $4-5M to run a campaign during that time in other media (e.g., mail, social media, personal appearances).  

I think he'll have that by August 28.  But at the same time, it means that he needs to run a lean operation until then.  

Which it appears he's going to be able to do, because Cruz isn't doing anything right now to accelerate that timeframe.

[pyrohornIII 4805]

There is a large grassroots effort being made.  Phone banks being manned by volunteers, as well as texting and door to door canvassing is scheduled.  So I would bet the boots on the ground for Beto outdistances Rafael by 10 to 1.  Especially the unpaid ones.   So it's not all dollars.   What will be interesting is how he runs his campaign, and to this point what i have heard has been an effort to shrug off cruz as you would some cold, and focus on how we can make Texas better through better legislation in DC.  

So it will be interesting to see what happens when cruz starts slinging mud. 

[staboner 4956]

just amazing how much money is blown on this shit. 

and kids growing up with no fucking hope are sitting in cages. 

and we spend millions on TV commercials. fucking hell

i'll be voting for beto and all Ds (never been a D voter straight ticket). i sure hope it sends a message very clearly because if the mid terms come and there is not discernible change in government (Rs getting their shit shoved in) then i will really struggle. like brisket level struggling. goddammit these last days have been hard.

[RayDog 682]

According to Texas Tribune he had $4.9 million on hand in mid February and as you noted over $8 million the end of March.

At that rate he could be approaching $14 million, but he has likely increased spending even faster than the donations have increased so perhaps a little less. My guess is he will report between 12 and 13 million on hand at the end of June.

[woohorn 1131]

Phone banks being manned by volunteers, as well as texting

God, I hate fuckin' texts from random volunteer democrats reminding me to vote weeks after I early voted.

[Dbeasy 14962]

I had originally planned to vote heavily Democrat and for Beto over Cruz. However, because I’ve received unsolicited text message spam, I am seriously considering voting Cruz, even though I hate his guts. I despise spam that badly.

[dcbc 14398]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I had originally planned to vote heavily Democrat and for Beto over Cruz. However, because I’ve received unsolicited text message spam, I am seriously considering voting Cruz, even though I hate his guts. I despise spam that badly.

I urge you to reconsider, unless you don't have unlimited text messages on your phone plan, in which case I urge you to find another phone plan and not vote for Cruz.

[hayden_horn 11360]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I had originally planned to vote heavily Democrat and for Beto over Cruz. However, because I’ve received unsolicited text message spam, I am seriously considering voting Cruz, even though I hate his guts. I despise spam that badly.

Fuck the country, I got some texts

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I had originally planned to vote heavily Democrat and for Beto over Cruz. However, because I’ve received unsolicited text message spam, I am seriously considering voting Cruz, even though I hate his guts. I despise spam that badly.

Yeah I like to cut off my nose to spite my face too. It’s fun!

[Celery Man 20881]

I was considering voting for Beto despite being somewhat right of center on many non social issues. Because he seems intelligent and of high character and I agree with most not all of what he’s saying. And Cruz is a piece of shit. And I obviously firmly decided to vote for Beto. And now I’ve decided to vote Democrat until the entire GOP has been gutted because the party as it exists is stage 4 cancer on America.

[Brisketexan 104537]

42 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I was considering voting for Beto despite being somewhat right of center on many non social issues. Because he seems intelligent and of high character and I agree with most not all of what he’s saying. And Cruz is a piece of shit. And I obviously firmly decided to vote for Beto. And now I’ve decided to vote Democrat until the entire GOP has been gutted because the party as it exists is stage 4 cancer on America.

Yeah, a little bit of this.  Or, you know, all of this.

My wife just got on the site -- we'd already contributed, we just ordered some stuff.  Sign, t-shirts, commemorative plate from the Franklin Mint (ok, maybe not the plate -- would clash with my Star Trek china).

Because when you have cancer like today's GOP, you want all the chemo.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[pyrohornIII 4805]

I'm open for suggestions on how to reach people without costing an arm and leg.   I work once a week on the phone bank and its in the afternoon.  I don't like it because people work, or go to the doctor or whatever.  But when is the best time to call?     Like it's been said before a lot of people haven't heard of Beto and they are doing the best they can to reach people using as few dollars and as many volunteers as possible.  If you have suggestions, I am sure they would love to hear them. 

 

If you answer and say you are strong beto or strong cruz, then its less likely you won't be contacted again.   If you indicate Beto, they will ask if you want to volunteer.  They aren't asking for money, just letting people know there are ways to help if they want to and have time.   

 

I'd rather weather some calls and texts from people trying to help someone sincere about representing Texas than have another term for Cruz.  At least then I know that people are fired up enough to dedicate time to get Cruz replaced by someone better. 

Edited June 21, 2018 by pyrohornIII

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

11 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I'm open for suggestions on how to reach people without costing an arm and leg. 

Troll farms and bots mixed with geographic and demographic micro-targeting. All you need is the messaging you want to push and a copy of the Cambridge Analytica data set, which should be on eBay any day now.

 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

College campuses are full of people that would vote Beto but are registered in their home town (or not at all) or are flaky when it comes to voting. Getting kids on these campuses registered where they will be on Election Day would be a good start. Between UT, TXST, and ACC you are sitting on over 100k students just in central Texas. 

[Brisketexan 104537]

21 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

College campuses are full of people that would vote Beto but are registered in their home town (or not at all) or are flaky when it comes to voting. Getting kids on these campuses registered where they will be on Election Day would be a good start. Between UT, TXST, and ACC you are sitting on over 100k students just in central Texas. 

Excellent point.

[Js1 85085]

22 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

College campuses are full of people that would vote Beto but are registered in their home town (or not at all) or are flaky when it comes to voting. Getting kids on these campuses registered where they will be on Election Day would be a good start. Between UT, TXST, and ACC you are sitting on over 100k students just in central Texas. 

Did this in 08 at UT.  Set up outside the PCL/UTC, Student Union, Jester and Gregory and I think we registered a few thousand in just a few days.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

A Beto tweet yesterday about donny’s Kiddie jails has over 33,000 likes. Lupe posted something similar and it’s at 480. Her inability to help out down ballot candidates makes her a ridiculously bad choice.

[Js1 85085]

Lupe ain't the top of the ticket, it's Beto. Beto will be the one to drag down-ballot candidates across the finish line if he can pull it off.

Lupe or White were just going to be fodder for Abbott to leave tire tread on.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

ISWYDT

[bolverk 29394]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lupe ain't the top of the ticket, it's Beto. Beto will be the one to drag down-ballot candidates across the finish line if he can pull it off.

Lupe or White were just going to be fodder for Abbott to leave tire tread on.

Still, I would've preferred White even if he is a political neophyte, which shouldn't be too much of a knock on him considering Lupe only has experience in one county. I know it's going to sound crass (coming from a straight white male), but I honestly feel like her candidacy represents the worst of "identity politics" and only goes to reinforce that terrible talking point.

The only positive that I can see in her running is that she is so bad that no one is paying her any considerable attention. All the news noise is focused on Beto, whom you're correct to de facto label as being on the top of the ticket.

My advice to her would be to basically not campaign at all so as to not diminish the chances any of the down-ballot folks like Kopser might have.

[Hornius Emeritus 12408]

http://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217621/donald-trump-2/

[bolverk 29394]

15 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

http://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217621/donald-trump-2/

Quote

 

DONALD TRUMP

by Ted Cruz

President Trump is a flash-bang grenade thrown into Washington by the forgotten men and women of America. The fact that his first year as Commander in Chief disoriented and distressed members of the media and political establishment is not a bug but a feature.

The same cultural safe spaces that blinkered coastal elites to candidate Trump’s popularity have rendered them blind to President Trump’s achievements on behalf of ordinary Americans. While pundits obsessed over tweets, he worked with Congress to cut taxes for struggling families. While wealthy celebrities announced that they would flee the country, he fought to bring back jobs and industries to our shores. While talking heads predicted Armageddon, President Trump’s strong stand against North Korea put Kim Jong Un back on his heels.

President Trump is doing what he was elected to do: disrupt the status quo. That scares the heck out of those who have controlled Washington for decades, but for millions of Americans, their confusion is great fun to watch.

 

Fuck you, Ted. You're a snide, sniveling weasel who's ravenous for that orange Trump cock in your mouth.

Please, use your little sharp teeth.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

59 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Still, I would've preferred White even if he is a political neophyte, which shouldn't be too much of a knock on him considering Lupe only has experience in one county. I know it's going to sound crass (coming from a straight white male), but I honestly feel like her candidacy represents the worst of "identity politics" and only goes to reinforce that terrible talking point.

The only positive that I can see in her running is that she is so bad that no one is paying her any considerable attention. All the news noise is focused on Beto, whom you're correct to de facto label as being on the top of the ticket.

My advice to her would be to basically not campaign at all so as to not diminish the chances any of the down-ballot folks like Kopser might have.

As someone who belongs to the same community as Lupe, I completely agree.  She needs to just campaign in Dallas where I'm assuming she was somewhat popular, or pull a Wendy Davis and go write a book and promote it out of state during this election season.

[Chooky 13296]

Not Cruz or O'Rourke related, but this is the best campaign ad I've ever seen:

 

[Brisketexan 104537]

9 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Not Cruz or O'Rourke related, but this is the best campaign ad I've ever seen:

 

F yeah.

[Ghost of LL 15469]

19 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Not Cruz or O'Rourke related, but this is the best campaign ad I've ever seen:

 

By the way--Cook Political Report just moved that from a "Solid R" race to a "Likely R."

But to her last point--Carter is like Sessions.  He's a guy who doesn't spend time in his district, doesn't know the district anymore, and doesn't know how to run a real campaign.  There's some real danger in that race for Republicans.

[relapse98 634]

Love the content of the video but holey crap its long and I have a short attention span.

 

And damn that soldier was Decorated. Look at her uniform at 1:52, she had a hell of a stack.

[Chuckie Finster 22598]

7 minutes ago, relapse98 said:

Love the content of the video but holey crap its long and I have a short attention span.

 

And damn that soldier was Decorated. Look at her uniform at 1:52, she had a hell of a stack.

I'm telling you, the key to the Democrats in 2020 is to find a decorated military vet.  And not one who served 40 years ago and has been sitting in Washington ever since.  

But I'm sure it will be some rich white dude or old lady instead.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

That was a hell of a video.  I wish it was longer, as in, go into more detail about your service, like 15 minutes more detail, or shorter, as in give me that same message in a minute or less. I'd be on board with that campaign though, if I lived in her district.

[pyrohornIII 4805]

Yeah, that's well done.  Long, yeah, but that is because we live in a world of sound bites.  That is one of Rs biggest tools, and we need to start looking for the substance behind it the issues, not just the twitter headline and quick blurb.  Maybe if more of our politicians and candidates moved towards something more in line with this, an actual who/what/where/when/why article then it would move us all to expecting more than a few unfounded sentences sent out to shock us. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

4 hours ago, Chooky said:

Not Cruz or O'Rourke related, but this is the best campaign ad I've ever seen:

 

Quoting for greatness.

[Celery Man 20881]

great ad.  but way too long to be listening to a soundalike, irritating.

 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

She will get two votes from my household. It will be tough considering the district includes round rock to just shy of ft hood. Hopefully she can pick off some of the military vote. Wilco is almost down to 50/50 but not enough to put her over the top.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9306]

Two more votes for MJ from our house in CP. 

[Gil Bang 25894]

Beto on Blitzer right now talking about the border thing.