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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

elfenix

elfenix 34164

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

That’s hilarious.

And why are all the olds whipping out their phones so they can get a picture of ted Cruz? Cell phones Facebook and Fox News has destroyed our olds way worse than the millennials and whatever the next generation is called. 

it's a staged photo op. 

"we're gonna put this one on the internet so everyone hold up your signs and your phones and i'll do this heroic pose and 3... 2..."

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, elfenix said:

"of people who have never voted in a primary AND are early voting, X% of them are between the age of ___ and ___" is a different set of data than "of people who are early voting, Y% of them are between the age of ___ and ___."  there's lots of people in their 20s and 30s who've never voted in a primary, and that figure should trend downhill with age.  which is what the graph illustrates.

 

 

edit: here's another of his charts, he's looking at (it appears) all history.

so the orange bar in the first graph should be the people in the green and yellow bars here

(i'm kind of amazed at how few people have only voted in one party's primary)

This looks just terrible for Beto.  Harris is a wild outlier here.  It is going to vote Beto but early voters are 36.9 R / 31.0 D primary voters?  Yikes.  

 

 

Aaah.  Nevermind.  This includes mail-ins I'm sure which are overwhelmingly R.  If that is the case, this might be great news for Beto.

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2427

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Still not looking good for O'Rourke. These counties actually had more 2018 Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters by a 52%-48% margin, so he's also underperforming against that mark so far. The real analysis would require having these same numbers for previous early voting periods but I don't have that.

yeah something is not right with the way you're looking at it. there is no way Beto is underperforming against any previous metric.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32682

Posted
Posted
yeah something is not right with the way you're looking at it. there is no way Beto is underperforming against any previous metric.
Right, the disclaimer is that I'm using previous final results, not early results. If that guy made available the same breakdowns after Day 3 of early voting for past elections we could do some real analysis.
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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mycox said:

Early voting numbers have set a record in Harris County for the 1st three days. I'm waiting for the lines to go down.

still lagging behind dallas/austin/collin/fort bend counties from the perspective of percent of eligible voters who have voted. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted (edited)

random thoughts

  • I don't think there can be any factual pre-election analysis or polls that will show Beto in a lead.  Mainly his path to victory is bringing out voters that never or rarely vote and the polls will mainly ignore them.  Or more likely, the polls or numbers will never show him in the lead because the simple answer is that he isn't in the lead and can't get there.
  • Still it must be worrisome for the GOP that Abbott is polling at a 20 point lead and Cruz at 7 at RCP.com.   If Beto can pull 13 points from Cruz why not 20?   Is 13 the ceiling? 
  • Trump/Hillary in 2016 was 52%-43% in TX.  RCP has Cruz/Beto 51-44.   Has all the work Beto put in, and money spent only moved the needle 1 pct?   That is hard to believe unless Cruz is inherently more popular than Trump in Texas.   And it wasn't like Hillary was that popular in the first place.

If Beto loses 51-44, it has to be a sign that the Dems are still dead here for another decade or so.  Maybe longer.

disclaimer:  I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32682

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Posted
That is hard to believe unless Cruz is inherently more popular than Trump in Texas.
 


I think this may actually be a factor. Trump pulled a much lower percentage in Texas than other recent GOP Presidential candidates. Cruz isn't popular nationally but in Texas he's just the Republican Senator guy.

It may be a joke on the boards but Cruz is going to get the vast majority of Johnson voters as well as McMullin voters. As I've mentioned elsewhere I know several staunchly Republican Mormon families who absolutely hate Trump and voted McMullin. They will vote for Cruz.
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Captainant

Captainant 27283

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, mycox said:

Early voting numbers have set a record in Harris County for the 1st three days. I'm waiting for the lines to go down.

I just voted at the municiple center off gray in Houston, had to wait about 30 minutes at 3:45 on a Thursday. The staff had those lines MOVING

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 


I think this may actually be a factor. Trump pulled a much lower percentage in Texas than other recent GOP Presidential candidates. Cruz isn't popular nationally but in Texas he's just the Republican Senator guy.

It may be a joke on the boards but Cruz is going to get the vast majority of Johnson voters as well as McMullin voters. As I've mentioned elsewhere I know several staunchly Republican Mormon families who absolutely hate Trump and voted McMullin. They will vote for Cruz.

 

You could be right.  Maybe it's not that Beto is only doing 1% better than Hillary, it's that Trump was unpopular in Texas in  2016.   And with my other thought that Cruz is underperforming Abbott by 13 points,  Beto's max might be losing by 7.

Then again, Cruz couldn't pull 50% in the Texas presidential primary so is he that popular here?   Many conflicting numbers and analysis in this race.

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RPM

RPM 26183

Posted
Posted

I honestly haven't heard anyone say they like Ted Cruz. I have heard a lot of people say they wouldn't vote for a Democrat. You could swap a shit sandwich for Cruz and get the same poll numbers. It's herd mentality. Party over country.

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33818

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RPM said:

I honestly haven't heard anyone say they like Ted Cruz. I have heard a lot of people say they wouldn't vote for a Democrat. You could swap a shit sandwich for Cruz and get the same poll numbers. It's herd mentality. Party over country.

yup, and hopefully that mentality is dying out - literally

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RPM said:

I honestly haven't heard anyone say they like Ted Cruz. I have heard a lot of people say they wouldn't vote for a Democrat. You could swap a shit sandwich for Cruz and get the same poll numbers. It's herd mentality. Party over country.

If you think Dems are bad for the country isn’t voting against them good for the country?  What’s hard about this?

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

They’re fighting the good fight against those evil gays and their marriages

Stupid post.  

Not a big issue, sorry to disappoint you.  Last poll I saw showed 44% of Republicans supported it and it’s been a growing number. 

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6643

Posted
Posted (edited)
Just now, GRHorn said:

Stupid post.  

Not a big issue, sorry to disappoint you.  Last poll I saw showed 44% of Republicans supported it and it’s been a growing number. 

Then you should be really upset with this administration and efforts by others to strip LGBT rights

edit: and fuck you for telling me it isn’t a big issue. It’s a BIG fucking issue for a lot of people and posters right here. 

Edited by SubliminalHorn
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RPM

RPM 26183

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

If you think Dems are bad for the country isn’t voting against them good for the country?  What’s hard about this?

If you think Ted Cruz is good for Texas, you're ignoring his record of achievement.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Then you should be really upset with this administration and efforts by others to strip LGBT rights

edit: and fuck you for telling me it isn’t a big issue. It’s a BIG fucking issue for a lot of people and posters right here. 

Obviously you are more tuned in to what LGBT rights have been taken away by Trump administration.  What are they?  

Sorry I didn’t mean to offend. I just don’t know anybody personally that cares one flip about gay marriage honestly. It’s going your way, just gonna take time. 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20870

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

If you think Dems are bad for the country isn’t voting against them good for the country?  What’s hard about this?

I think the point is that Ted Cruz is a dogshit candidate.  You vote for him because you think dems are bad for the country - got it.  So, if Ted was replaced with a golden retriever puppy who voted republican 100% of the time, that would probably be a big improvement.  Because nobody is voting for Ted Cruz - they're voting for the "republican".

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6643

Posted
Posted
Just now, GRHorn said:

Obviously you are more tuned in to what LGBT rights have been taken away by Trump administration.  What are they?  

Sorry I didn’t mean to offend. I just don’t know anybody personally that cares one flip about gay marriage honestly. It’s going your way, just gonna take time. 

I’m not going to do your homework for you. Educate yourself. Google is your friend. If you don’t think the right is working to chip away at LGBT rights, you’re either a moron or you don’t follow politics whatsoever. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I’m not going to do your homework for you. Educate yourself. Google is your friend. If you don’t think the right is working to chip away at LGBT rights, you’re either a moron or you don’t follow politics whatsoever. 

But when someone asks and is being thoughtful and kind and asking to understand, you should probably educate and work on someone's mind and heart if it's an emotional or near and dear to you issue that is a big deal to your chosen or called way of life. Or be an asshole to people on here and call your mom an idiot, that seems to be working for you.

Edited by Guest
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ERhine

ERhine 1894

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Posted
But when someone asks and is being thoughtful and kind and asking to understand, you should probably educate and work on someone's mind and heart if it's an emotional or near and dear to you issue that is a big deal to your chosen or called way of life. Or be an asshole to people on here and call your mom an idiot, that seems to be working for you.


Just asking questions, huh? GRHorn isn’t being thoughtful or kind. Anyone who has read his posts can see that. Posts like this show you’re obviously a troll.
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, ERhine said:

 


Just asking questions, huh? GRHorn isn’t being thoughtful or kind. Anyone who has read his posts can see that. Posts like this show you’re obviously a troll.

 

Every accusation is a confession, troll.

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