Cruz vs Beto

[RPM 26628]

We have 4 early voting locations in Wise County. I remember when W was running they used to have EV ballot boxes at the entrance to Walmart. One of the school districts was trying to get a bond for athletics passed after it had been defeated 3 times. They did a floating ballot box that went to all their games, school fund raisers and meetings. It shockingly passed that time. It just shows that when those in control want to get votes, they will bend over backward to get them.

[sushihorn 3249]

10 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

The senate and gubernatorial races in CA are in the bag for the Dems. Unless they live in one of the swingy congressional districts, there aren't any reason for the non-partisans to show up.

All true.  But look at NC.  There isn't even a senate or governor's race to not be interested in.  And they are already above 2014 EV turnout with a week to go.

[sushihorn 3249]

21 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 CA early voting isn’t really a thing. For example, there are only 10 early voting locations for all of Los Angeles County. Pomona to Pacific Palisades. Torrance to Tijunga. Big fucking County with 10 places.  

All of O.C. has 8 locations. That’s Buena Park to San Clemente. 8.

 

San Bernardino County is only THE LARGEST FUCKING COUNTY in the entire country. They have 6.

 

Ontario to Arizona. 6.

OK.  But is EV less of a thing now in CA than it was 4 years ago?  Their EV ballots are mostly mail-in anyway.

1.62 million of those ballots have been returned out of over 11 million that were requested from 19 million registered voters.  I think we can all see a problem here.  They've had almost a month to complete the process at this point.

Edited October 30, 2018 by sushihorn

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

All true.  But look at NC.  There isn't even a senate or governor's race to not be interested in.  And they are already above 2014 EV turnout with a week to go.

I expect higher than 2014 turnout in NY too. No EV vote to analyze though.  And Cuomo, Gillibrand, and their opponents, who may as well be cardboard cutouts, don't seem to be running any campaign ads at all. NJ races, and a couple of in play NY districts dominate the airwaves. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

All true.  But look at NC.  There isn't even a senate or governor's race to not be interested in.  And they are already above 2014 EV turnout with a week to go.

It's a purple state with a few competitive House districts, a Democratic governor, and an out-of-control Republican dominated state legislature. The Ds want blood but will be met with a strong R turnout.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

Stealing from someone else: Texas is a purple state with low voter turnout. To deny it's anything but is dumb.

[Gil Bang 26240]

OK.  But is EV less of a thing now in CA than it was 4 years ago?  Their EV ballots are mostly mail-in anyway.
1.62 million of those ballots have been returned out of over 11 million that were requested from 19 million registered voters.  I think we can all see a problem here.  They've had almost a month to complete the process at this point.

I mailed mine yesterday. What’s the rush? Seriously. I probably had it two weeks but I was waiting to see some debates on local candidates for city government, on local initiatives etc.

I actually spent three or four days researching the judicial candidates.

[sushihorn 3249]

1 minute ago, berlinerbaer said:

It's a purple state with a few competitive House districts, a Democratic governor, and an out-of-control Republican dominated state legislature. The Ds want blood but will be met with a strong R turnout.

I've seen indications that Cali politics is about to turn into internecine warfare between Democrats in Northern and Southern California.  Take a look at some of the LA area media's resentment of the Bay Area domination of elected offices.  Just goes to show that human beings will always be able to find differences to fight over.

[berlinerbaer 692]

Beto GOTV results from this weekend. About 220k doors knocked (short of the 400k goal), brining the grand total to just over one million since 10/13. That's on track to 1.8M knocks total by election day.

[workswithseed 2204]

Hey, Gil. Could you stop California from sending me political ads? I live Portland not the damn Cascadia area.

[Rimbo 27026]

1 hour ago, Marshall_Lucky said:

Do you even “Gunter Glieben Glauten Globen” bro?

i got somethin to say

it's better to burn out than fade away

Edited October 30, 2018 by Rimbo

[Gil Bang 26240]

I've seen indications that Cali politics is about to turn into internecine warfare between Democrats in Northern and Southern California.  Take a look at some of the LA area media's resentment of the Bay Area domination of elected offices.  Just goes to show that human beings will always be able to find differences to fight over.

What? There’s a couple of nutjob radio stations. Is that what you mean by “media”?

[Guest Lobo]

6 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Beto GOTV results from this weekend. About 220k doors knocked (short of the 400k goal), brining the grand total to just over one million since 10/13. That's on track to 1.8M knocks total by election day.

It's very impressive.  Am I the only one though that purposely votes against the campaign that sends people to knock on my door?  They have to know on some level it backfires. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

Is there some fear the CA is going to vote GOP this year?   I don’t see that happening in the age of trump.   

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It's very impressive.  Am I the only one though that purposely votes against the campaign that sends people to knock on my door?  They have to know on some level it backfires. 

You decide to vote against someone that knocks on your door to encourage you to vote?  I don’t think they are wasting the effort to have someone knock on your door daily.  

Edited October 30, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Bookman 4764]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Am I the only one though that purposely votes against the campaign that sends people to knock on my door?

That's a really stupid thing to do. You should take your vote more seriously.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

19 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It's very impressive.  Am I the only one though that purposely votes against the campaign that sends people to knock on my door?  They have to know on some level it backfires. 

so, you would prefer if Beto didn't GOTV? I bet you would. If they didn't knock on your door would you have voted for him? 

[Js1 87185]

So we have Lobo treating his vote as some sort of “gotcha” against canvassers and this other idiot concerting trolling about California. 

Productive thread 

[Chrispy 132]

19 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It's very impressive.  Am I the only one though that purposely votes against the campaign that sends people to knock on my door?  They have to know on some level it backfires. 

Seriously. Who are all these people that answer the door for solicitors? 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

 My wife just got done with her second door knocking campaign. They have an app that shows who in the area has done some sort of engagement that indicates Democrat support. Liking Beto on Facebook, voting Democrat in this primaries, contributing, etc. The whole mission is to go, ask about whether the person has early voted, and if not help them make a plan on when they are doing it. It is intentionally designed not to  annoy people who don’t already lean that way. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

2 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

Seriously. Who are all these people that answer the door for solicitors? 

She got about 13 doors out of 50 last night, campus area.  She said 10 had already voted (see 508% increase, upthread). 3 she helped make a plan. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

Also, said app indicated a ton of Beto support in Wilco, which I found encouraging.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

13 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 My wife just got done with her second door knocking campaign. They have an app that shows who in the area has done some sort of engagement that indicates Democrat support. Liking Beto on Facebook, voting Democrat in this primaries, contributing, etc. The whole mission is to go, ask about whether the person has early voted, and if not help them make a plan on when they are doing it. It is intentionally designed not to  annoy people who don’t already lean that way. 

This is the impression I got as well.  It’s not about knocking on every door in Texas.   

Im assuming they indicate on the app if the resident indicates they’ve voted?  Or if they plan to?  That’s a great door to knock on again on Election Day.  Especially late.  Hey, it’s 5pm on election, have you voted yet?  No?  The polls are still open.  Want a ride?

[elguapo 4620]

Is there some fear the CA is going to vote GOP this year?   I don’t see that happening in the age of trump.   

No, sushi apparently interprets every data point with a GOP colored lens.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

8 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

 

 

Adding a little color, here is turnout by age.  

 

Who know what 508% and 96% increase means in raw numbers, but suffice it to say, the lines will all be much closer together the next time they make one of these graphs.

 

[BrickHorn 18447]

8 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 CA early voting isn’t really a thing. For example, there are only 10 early voting locations for all of Los Angeles County. Pomona to Pacific Palisades. Torrance to Tijunga. 

La Jolla to Leo Carrillo.  And... up to Pismo.

[Js1 87185]

8 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 CA early voting isn’t really a thing. For example, there are only 10 early voting locations for all of Los Angeles County. Pomona to Pacific Palisades. Torrance to Tijunga. Big fucking County with 10 places.  

All of O.C. has 8 locations. That’s Buena Park to San Clemente. 8.

 

San Bernardino County is only THE LARGEST FUCKING COUNTY in the entire country. They have 6.

 

Ontario to Arizona. 6.

 

 

CA will be counting for WEEKS because of vote by mail.  Some of those Congressional races may not be settled until early December. 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

9 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

 

 

A big increase in over-65 voters makes me wonder if that includes the Democrats who faded into the background in the mid-90s.  

[Guest]

One week left! This thread will be amazing, one way or another, in celebration it will be fun or in despair it will be interesting.

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A big increase in over-65 voters makes me wonder if that includes the Democrats who faded into the background in the mid-90s.  

Possibly. We always assume over 65 automatically means GOP. Not true at all, my parents are 65 and I’m pretty sure they were the first people to vote in Texas the first day of EV and they loathe dotus 

[pyrohornIII 4846]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A big increase in over-65 voters makes me wonder if that includes the Democrats who faded into the background in the mid-90s.  

Good point.  You can see them at any Beto Event.

First time in a long time they have had a good candidate to back. 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

Possibly. We always assume over 65 automatically means GOP. Not true at all, my parents are 65 and I’m pretty sure they were the first people to vote in Texas the first day of EV and they loathe dotus 

Plenty of over-65 types are also on fixed incomes.  Some of Trump’s actions could hit them hard in the wallet.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

 I saw an article that said young voters in Harris County went from 8% of the 2014 total to 15% of the total, and young voters in El Paso County went from 8% of the total to 12% of the total. I guarantee every one of those increased votes is a Beto vote.   I feel like this youth surge is the first clear bit of encouraging data we’ve seen. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

At the same time, the olds on my Facebook have been circulating the  “holy shit get out and vote so that dumb young people don’t have their say” palpable fear message.  I bet old people still vote like they always have.  

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

So we have Lobo treating his vote as some sort of “gotcha” against canvassers and this other idiot concerting trolling about California. 

Productive thread 

I live in a neighborhood that's very closely divided among R & D which is actually pretty rare for Austin, so it's a hotly contested area (particularly at the muni/state level).  From the FEC rolls, they know I give money to both sides and have voted in both primaries (obviously in different years).  As a Mexican American (your racist assumptions crack me up as always), I was raised not to answer the fucking door.  And now, as part of my job, I get to help direct hundreds of thousands of dollars to candidates of R, D, and L flavors.  So you'll remember your fucking place the next time you try to pigeon-hole me.  Our bank holds quite a bit of PAC money so when a campaign fails to remember there are rules in how they approach us, I figure, "they're too fucking dumb or too fucking corrupt for my vote."  

For U.S. Senate, I literally just this morning cast my vote for Neil Dikeman.  And O'Rourke's campaign is going to regret not taking the offer to support Dikeman for disenfranchised Republicans more seriously.  

Edited October 30, 2018 by Lobo

[Js1 87185]

Okay. Cool. Remember your fucking place? Got it.

So all your "Beto needs to do this in regards to Dikeman" was you lobbying for the guy you voted for? Okay cool. Will listen to you from now on. Definitely give a shit about your opinion the most of anyone.

Jenlawgif

[ERhine 1938]

The belief that Beto was supposed to openly support Dikeman is one of the dumber ones I’ve seen on this thread.

[Huckleberry 34657]

THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE ALL THESE THINGS TO GET PEOPLE LIKE ME TO VOTE FOR DIKEMAN, THEY WILL REGRET NOT GETTING OUR VOTES!

p.s. I voted for Dikeman

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So all your "Beto needs to do this in regards to Dikeman" was you lobbying for the guy you voted for? Okay cool. Will listen to you from now on. Definitely give a shit about your opinion the most of anyone

Holy shit, on a thread for U.S. Senate, I lobbied for a particular candidate.  Wow, did not see that coming at all.  I completely understand that you're confused and offended.  Somebody was openly talking about how Beto could have exploited Dikeman for his own benefit.  And that's what you take offense at?  It's impossible you're this naive.  

I want you to think about this thread when you see his margin of loss.  and I don't like it when we hold money for pro-Beto PAC's and then go out of our way to tell them to avoid us at all costs during the campaign...and they just can't fucking help themselves.  There are unwritten rules to this game and he doesn't abide them.  

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, ERhine said:

The belief that Beto was supposed to openly support Dikeman is one of the dumber ones I’ve seen on this thread.

Holy fucking shit, where did I say Beto should knock on doors and hold rallies for Dikeman?  Show me precisely where.

They had every opportunity to direct money to Dikeman for his "If you don't like the GOP, here I am...'  (my words, not there's).  

Nevermind, Beto is gonna win by 7%.  

[ERhine 1938]

You’ve posted like five times that Beto should have supported your candidate.

[ERhine 1938]

Sorry. Beto just should have given money to Dikeman? Or used a PAC to do it? Stupid.

[Guest Lobo]

They thought long and hard about using PAC money with which to do it.  Because they called our bank to inquire about it.  

Nevermind, Beto is gonna win.  I shouldn't have brought up supporting a particular Senate candidate on a thread about Senate candidates.  

Go Robert!  

[FondrenRoad 4378]

12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I live in a neighborhood that's very closely divided among R & D which is actually pretty rare for Austin, so it's a hotly contested area (particularly at the muni/state level).  From the FEC rolls, they know I give money to both sides and have voted in both primaries (obviously in different years).  As a Mexican American (your racist assumptions crack me up as always), I was raised not to answer the fucking door.  And now, as part of my job, I get to help direct hundreds of thousands of dollars to candidates of R, D, and L flavors.  So you'll remember your fucking place the next time you try to pigeon-hole me.  Our bank holds quite a bit of PAC money so when a campaign fails to remember there are rules in how they approach us, I figure, "they're too fucking dumb or too fucking corrupt for my vote."  

For U.S. Senate, I literally just this morning cast my vote for Neil Dikeman.  And O'Rourke's campaign is going to regret not taking the offer to support Dikeman for disenfranchised Republicans more seriously.  

Lol. Direct PAC money. You have no control over who gets what. Just give the accountholder the amount he requests on the withdrawal slip when he comes to your counter. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

They thought long and hard about using PAC money with which to do it.  Because they called our bank to inquire about it.  

Nevermind, Beto is gonna win.  I shouldn't have brought up supporting a particular Senate candidate on a thread about Senate candidates.  

Go Robert!  

The thing is, Lobo is not wrong. He's an asshole, but he's not wrong, per se. Instead of funneling money to dead end democrats to try and spark coattails or down ballots on obvious losing efforts (and arguably being a horrible steward of the money that some centrists and republicans have given to him only and specifically), he could have used that money to siphon off votes for cruz to the 3rd party candidate which directly helps his election night results. 

[Texas73 422]

Beto is going to regret not supporting one of his opponents? Makes sense.

[Js1 87185]

1 minute ago, Texas73 said:

Beto is going to regret not supporting one of his opponents? Makes sense.

"If those GOD DAMN democrats would just vote for us and give us money, they'd be so much better off somehow." -  Libertarians who wonder why they struggle to crack 10% of the vote like, every time

[MissingInAction 25556]

This thread turned into a transcript of Fox and Friends.

[Huckleberry 34657]

13 minutes ago, Lobo said:

They thought long and hard about using PAC money with which to do it.  Because they called our bank to inquire about it.  

Nevermind, Beto is gonna win.  I shouldn't have brought up supporting a particular Senate candidate on a thread about Senate candidates.  

Go Robert!  

Libertarians get votes when the Republican candidate sucks ass. Democrats encourage liberty-minded Republican voters to vote Libertarian when they point out that the Republican candidate is shitty. The only thing Democrats need to do to get some voters to vote L instead of R is to point out that the R is terrible. The ones who vote L instead of R are almost never going to vote for the Democrat. Some will, sure, but not many.

Take me for example. I voted for O'Rourke and it was my first vote for a Democrat for national office in my life. I've voted Libertarian for national office for decades. Splitting control of Washington while simultaneously removing power from the current version of the GOP was my goal. But maybe if I'd learned more about Dikeman and liked what I learned I maybe just might have voted for him instead of O'Rourke.

Your analysis is flawed because you are worrying about a very rare creature. The quantities are so small that it doesn't really matter. There are just as many liberty-minded people like me who are willing to vote against a Trump ass-kissing charlatan like Ted Cruz by actually supporting his Democrat opponent as there are those who would leave Cruz for Dikeman. The reward is not worth the risk.

[elguapo 4620]

But Lobo works at a bank so he definitely knows more about how to spend campaign money than people who run campaigns as their job, and it has absolutely nothing to do with him supporting the L candidate!