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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89405

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22 hours ago, bolverk said:

As a zero gun owner and Beto supporter, y'all are making me feel really inadequate as a Texan.

The only way to truly be inadequate as a Texas is to have a draft-dodging New Yorker shit on your wife’s looks and mental health and insult your dad, and then follow it up by kissing his ring.  

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Chooky

Chooky 13299

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The latest Cracker Barrel Poll predicts that men wearing belt buckles that are made from scorpions encased in amber will ultimately swing this election to Ted Cruz by a decisive 14 point margin.  You win a 'Duck Dynasty' watch for participating in the poll so I'm confident that it's accurate.  Also, the Duck Dynasty watch has an alarm that you can set when it's "beer thirty," which increases not only the participation but also the accuracy of the poll.  Science can be a bummer.       

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Chooky

Chooky 13299

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5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

"How to lose the Millennial vote"

Yeah but he can make that up with a final campaign push by handing out signs that say "He was right!  My wife is unattractive.  Vote Cruz."  Boom.  Done.  That's how a real Texas Senator does it.  

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

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1 hour ago, Chooky said:

The latest Cracker Barrel Poll predicts that men wearing belt buckles that are made from scorpions encased in amber will ultimately swing this election to Ted Cruz by a decisive 14 point margin.  You win a 'Duck Dynasty' watch for participating in the poll so I'm confident that it's accurate.  Also, the Duck Dynasty watch has an alarm that you can set when it's "beer thirty," which increases not only the participation but also the accuracy of the poll.  Science can be a bummer.       

Is the alarm a bible verse? 

giphy.gif

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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2 hours ago, shnsajax said:

New Emerson College poll has Cruz up by 3. So the three most recent polls show Cruz up by 9, then 5, and now 3. 

I listened to a 538 podcast where Nate Silver pushed aside ideas that early votes matter when analyzing polls.  He said that it basically its just stealing votes from Election Day.  It's the same vote regardless.

The one area that Silver said it mattered in polls was that if you tell a pollster that you've already voted, your responses may receive a higher weighting than even a likely voter.   Assuming you're not lying, your vote is 100% guaranteed.  Even a likely voter isn't guaranteed they will vote. 

Perhaps some polls are hearing more from early voters now, and that has been trending towards Beto.  Pure speculation on my part.

 

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Lurch

Lurch 5921

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I listened to a 538 podcast where Nate Silver pushed aside ideas that early votes matter when analyzing polls.  He said that it basically its just stealing votes from Election Day.  It's the same vote regardless.
The one area that Silver said it mattered in polls was that if you tell a pollster that you've already voted, your responses may receive a higher weighting than even a likely voter.   Assuming you're not lying, your vote is 100% guaranteed.  Even a likely voter isn't guaranteed they will vote. 
Perhaps some polls are hearing more from early voters now, and that has been trending towards Beto.  Pure speculation on my part.
 


I disagree only in that it takes some variability (predominantly weather, but also last minute news surprises) out of the equation
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29223

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I listened to a 538 podcast where Nate Silver pushed aside ideas that early votes matter when analyzing polls.  He said that it basically its just stealing votes from Election Day.  It's the same vote regardless.

The one area that Silver said it mattered in polls was that if you tell a pollster that you've already voted, your responses may receive a higher weighting than even a likely voter.   Assuming you're not lying, your vote is 100% guaranteed.  Even a likely voter isn't guaranteed they will vote. 

Perhaps some polls are hearing more from early voters now, and that has been trending towards Beto.  Pure speculation on my part.

 

I don't think he said that it doesn't matter so much as it's hard to determine whether it matters because we don't know if it's simply cannibalizing election day votes or actually reflective of increased turnout.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I don't think he said that it doesn't matter so much as it's hard to determine whether it matters because we don't know if it's simply cannibalizing election day votes or actually reflective of increased turnout.

You probably stated it better than me.  I think he challenged anyone to create a model that could be applied across many elections to utilize early vote totals to more accurately predict the final result.

I saw this statement today on 538 to give Beto fans some additional hope:  "About 1 election in 40, there will be a two standard-deviation [poll] error in their favor, or 5 percentage points’ worth of uniform swing."

 

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3589

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So why doesn't he create a poll showing what the age of the voters are now compared to 2014 and work to see if there appears to be any uptick based on youth voters. If we are pulling in a higher % of voters 18-23 and 24-30 then you can begin to adjust your model accordingly. I would assume that he has this as a part of his poll already. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25771

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So, if Beto ends up winning -- and that's a really big if there -- I would wonder if what we're looking at is that the demographics and coalitions of the country have changed to the point where the models and methodologies pollsters are using are no longer accurate.

Nate Silver's response to 2 years ago seemed to be that a 70% chance of winning doesn't mean a guaranteed chance by any means. He's not wrong; however, the consistency of the polls failing, if they fail here again, makes me think the models themselves may be broken.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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4 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

So why doesn't he create a poll showing what the age of the voters are now compared to 2014 and work to see if there appears to be any uptick based on youth voters. If we are pulling in a higher % of voters 18-23 and 24-30 then you can begin to adjust your model accordingly. I would assume that he has this as a part of his poll already. 

If you're referring to 538, they create 0 polls.  Only aggregate the ones that they receive or find.  

the latest Emerson poll gives some details but its doesn't breakdown how each demographic voted.  https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/news/press-release/ecp_tx_2018final.xls

I imagine that polls want to keep some of their modeling methodology a secret.

 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

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Seriously though, this sort of stuff makes me sad.  Some obvious fraudster comes out with some obvious fraud timed where people can’t respond before the election and people celebrate it because they know enough dumb people will be taken in by it at the last moment.  

 

This O’Keefe thing, that Mueller metoo thing.  It makes you wonder how many people actually care about the good of the country  

 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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44 minutes ago, Stros said:

James O’Keefe said he’s releasing a new tape on Beto tonight. Anyone know what it’s about?

He’s admitting he is personally a fraud and is now claiming Beto is  much better person than both Cruz and himself, who he admits that they are both total scumbags, and that Beto should win the race so we can all come together as a country and heal together.

Is that correct? 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25896

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8 minutes ago, thepop said:

Do y'all think an absentee ballot mailed on election day (Tuesday) from Austin to San Antonio will arrive by 5pm the following day (the deadline)?

Asking for a friend (I already voted).

Isn't the "deadline" based on postmark?   It is out here. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33834

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9 minutes ago, thepop said:

Do y'all think an absentee ballot mailed on election day (Tuesday) from Austin to San Antonio will arrive by 5pm the following day (the deadline)?

Asking for a friend (I already voted).

big question is it a postmark date or a in-their-hands date? and that seems to be cutting it close. I would give it a 50/50 chance

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2257

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Voted for the first time in a mid term today. Here is my snap shot.

i am in Denton county which is traditionally republican. I was amazed how many under 30 something’s were voting this morning . I’d say There were about 40 % minority voters and about 70 % women in the 15 or so minutes I was there. Busier than I thought it would be. Probably about 50-70 people were either voting or in line. Voted straight ticket dem. Let’s see how close we can get this

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34 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Isn't the "deadline" based on postmark?   It is out here. 

Hey!

i was on a super quick, like 55 min flight today so I just watched the two curb your enthusiasm episodes they had on flight and they were first episodes of season 1.

I finally get where your name is from! Gil Bang! The dinner party and the no shoes and the whole thing!

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