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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13510

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Posted

As all Beto supporters are looking for signs the polls are wrong, here is more info:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The GOP internal polling has Cruz up by 8-9 points ASSUMING 6m will vote.  I think 6m is at least 1m too low.  Maybe closer to 1.5m.

In 2014, about 47% of voters voted early.  In 2016, that was 77%.  Makes sense that people are worried about long lines on POTUS election day so they go early.   Ffwd to 2018. Take the actual plus final day estimate early totals this year, divide by the 2016 early vote percentage (77%), you end up with 7.6m total votes.   

If internal GOP polling is off by 1.6m votes, you can't just assume that Cruz will still lead by 9.  Who are the 1.6m people that the GOP thinks won't vote but appear to be voting?

 

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13510

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8+ seems to be a stretch.  It's a midterm but voters appear to be almost as motivated as a POTUS election year.     But then maybe the people who will vote this year are even MORE motivated than in a POTUS year so they all came out early.  Tuesday #s may be disappointing. Maybe 85% are voting early.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13510

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2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

6MM have probably already voted.

Definitely by the end of today if not yesterday.  UNLESS the rural vote decided to stay home but there isn't any indication of that.  And if that happened, Cruz is done. 

Cruz has to hope that the unexpected voters vote relatively close to the expected voters.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45898

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1 hour ago, Born to Run said:

Not all are morally bankrupt. The influence of Rush, Fox, Micheal Barry cannot be understated. Those fuckers are burning in hell. 
 

 

Hey, leave Rush out of this.  I get it, Geddy's voice takes some getting used to, and Neil's lyrics are a Randian beating, but man, those are good guys who can really play.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25919

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10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hey, leave Rush out of this.  I get it, Geddy's voice takes some getting used to, and Neil's lyrics are a Randian beating, but man, those are good guys who can really play.

Hey! Guys like those three are exactly why we need tough border policies. Keeping them and their dirty filthy rock 'n' roll OUT OF AMERICA.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45898

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43 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As all Beto supporters are looking for signs the polls are wrong, here is more info:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The GOP internal polling has Cruz up by 8-9 points ASSUMING 6m will vote.  I think 6m is at least 1m too low.  Maybe closer to 1.5m.

In 2014, about 47% of voters voted early.  In 2016, that was 77%.  Makes sense that people are worried about long lines on POTUS election day so they go early.   Ffwd to 2018. Take the actual plus final day estimate early totals this year, divide by the 2016 early vote percentage (77%), you end up with 7.6m total votes.   

If internal GOP polling is off by 1.6m votes, you can't just assume that Cruz will still lead by 9.  Who are the 1.6m people that the GOP thinks won't vote but appear to be voting?

 

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13510

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

I hear ya.  The math works out like that.  But when the GOP says Cruz has a 9 point lead we don't know if they mean 54.5-45.5 or 50-41 with 9 undecided.   Most likely its somewhere in the middle.  Where do the undecided fall?

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'm not liking your optimism.  If we take the Cruz lead as 54.5 - 45.5 @ 6M votes (Cruz = 3.27M votes), then Beto would have to win over 66% of the (alleged) remaining 1.6M votes to pull it into a dead heat.

I'm hoping the GOP polling is way optimistic, because if it isn't, this race is way over.

That's if one were to take Cruz's internals as completely accurate.  What if it's only 4-5 points as the aggregate seems to indicate.  At 5 points, he'd have to win the overage at about 58%.  At 4 points it's somewhere around 56%.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45898

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2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

That's if one were to take Cruz's internals as completely accurate.  What if it's only 4-5 points as the aggregate seems to indicate.  At 5 points, he'd have to win the overage at about 58%.  At 4 points it's somewhere around 56%.

Well no shit.  I conceded that assumption.  It was the basis of my whole post.

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Texas73

Texas73 420

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4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

yeah, well, you live in a dry county. that explains a lot. 

heh. my ma lives up that way. always have to remember to stop in athens.

I've been in Austin since 1973, my graduation year from UT. But yeah, I hear you. 

Several of the little towns, Canton and Wills Point for sure voted in alcohol sales recently.

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 11035

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On 10/30/2018 at 7:40 PM, Bruh Man said:

Beto mentioned that he went to King County, Texas despite the county voting 96% for Trump. Apparently it's been labeled "the most anti-Obama" county in the U.S.

 

King county only has a population of like 200, and zero incorporated towns. Who gives a shit how it votes?

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

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2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

I don’t know Ted, but I know people who know him socially.  To a man, they all share your opinion.  One of the nicest people I know - someone who never has a bad word to say about anyone - knows Cruz and described him as “a complete asshole.”  

Okay.  I know people who know people that described Robert O'Rourke's attempt, as part of the City Council, to gentrify an area (predominately Mexican-American) of El Paso as shitty and called him a sell out.  He was the lackey for his billionaire FIL William D. Sanders.  So I guess Mr. O'Rourke's halo has been dinged.  Oh gawd what do we do.

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

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2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

At least he can hold his head high and say he didn't go negative against one of the most detestable and easy-to-attack candidates in Texas history.

"I have my pride!" I shout at the cattle cars heading towards the smokestacks billowing ash.

Sounds kinda aggy-------------like running out of time.  I guess he has his dignity but he fucked over his supporters by not going all out

Moral victory I guess.

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

No. I'm saying it's the CIA. It's what they do. It's what they've always done.

Not in the USA.  That is Verboten.  

 

Brennan was asked UNDER OATH if the CIA was spying on US citizens and he said "No".  He lied.

Edited by NameWithHeld
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