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Cruz vs Beto


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6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Lots of audience participation in this Collin County crowd for @tedcruz. #TXSen

 

Shouts of "He's a communist!" at mention of @BetoORourke. 

 

Shouts of "No #Caravan!" at mention of immigration. 

 

Cheers for Second Amendment nearly as loud as cheers for abolishing the IRS.

What’s that sign?

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Long early postmortem from Politico.

One thing I found interesting is that Cruz's campaign manager, Jeff Roe, planted the NFL/anthem question to Beto.

Quote

 

The video went viral, amassing some 50 million views to date. Athletes tweeted their support. Ellen DeGeneres invited O’Rourke on her show. Online fundraising went through the roof. And it was exactly what Cruz needed. His campaign’s internal polls had tightened. Around the time the video exploded online, Cruz had dropped into the mid-40s and the candidates were in a statistical tie for the first time. O’Rourke's response—to a question, it turns out, asked by Roe’s employee—provided just the cultural wedge issue Cruz needed. His team quickly brought in Tim Lee, a double-amputee Vietnam veteran, to tape attack ads. Airing first online and then on television, keeping the anthem story front-and-center for weeks in the Texas press, Lee says in the spots, “I gave two legs for this country. I’m unable to stand, but I sure expect you to stand for me when that national anthem is being played.”

By the end of September, according to tracking numbers I reviewed, Cruz’s lead had ballooned back to double digits statewide—and O’Rourke’s support in the outbound areas of the state’s four major cities had plummeted. It seemed unfair: O’Rourke had been nuanced and eloquent in his response, saluting the military and emphasizing that people of goodwill could disagree on the matter, yet Cruz had seized on the final soundbite to paint him as a radical. But distinctions, not fairness, are the currency of a campaign—and the sharper those distinctions, the more primitive and oversimplified, the better. In the boiled-down shorthand of electoral politics, O’Rourke sided with minorities and national anthem protesters; Cruz sided with military members and the American flag.

 

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Formatting probably all fucked up/won't work, but latest e-mail, this one from Willie Nelson

----------------------------

 

 

My friend Beto's the real deal. I really like and respect the way he's been going about trying to get elected: he’s been to every county in Texas. He’s knocked on lots of doors. That’s really hard work -- and it looks like it might just pay off.

I'm proud to support Beto in his campaign for U.S. Senate, and I'm happy to have a small cameo in Beto's brand-new ad, “On The Road Again.” You’re one of Beto’s biggest supporters -- so I wanted to be sure you saw it first.

Click here to watch Beto's new ad, then kick in a few bucks -- $5, $10, whatever you can afford -- to keep it on the airwaves.

Beto for Texas

Watch Beto's new ad »

A lot of people seemed surprised that I’m backing a candidate -- but it ain’t my first rodeo. Plus, Beto knows his way around a guitar, and he's got a really great attitude. And the more time I spend with him, the more I know Texans can count on Beto to work hard for us in the Senate.

And his opponent? Well, at the end of the day … if you don't like 'em, vote 'em out. And on November 6, that's exactly what we're gonna do.

Willie Nelson

 

If you've stored your info with ActBlue, we'll process your contribution instantly:

 

EXPRESS DONATE: $15 »

EXPRESS DONATE: $25 »

EXPRESS DONATE: $50 »

EXPRESS DONATE: $100 »

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Give another amount »

 

o.gif?akid=23727.911546.sjS8im 
 

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13 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Long early postmortem from Politico.

One thing I found interesting is that Cruz's campaign manager, Jeff Roe, planted the NFL/anthem question to Beto.

 

lol.  i wonder if they really believe that, or if in a moment of honesty they would take back that moment and not cause the viral video that launched Beto to political stardom

they may not be wrong that Beto is going to lose, but I can't agree with the analysis of why, and what was bad for Beto and good for Cruz

Edited by Celery Man
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Long early postmortem from Politico.
One thing I found interesting is that Cruz's campaign manager, Jeff Roe, planted the NFL/anthem question to Beto.
 
The video went viral, amassing some 50 million views to date. Athletes tweeted their support. Ellen DeGeneres invited O’Rourke on her show. Online fundraising went through the roof. And it was exactly what Cruz needed. His campaign’s internal polls had tightened. Around the time the video exploded online, Cruz had dropped into the mid-40s and the candidates were in a statistical tie for the first time. O’Rourke's response—to a question, it turns out, asked by Roe’s employee—provided just the cultural wedge issue Cruz needed. His team quickly brought in Tim Lee, a double-amputee Vietnam veteran, to tape attack ads. Airing first online and then on television, keeping the anthem story front-and-center for weeks in the Texas press, Lee says in the spots, “I gave two legs for this country. I’m unable to stand, but I sure expect you to stand for me when that national anthem is being played.”
By the end of September, according to tracking numbers I reviewed, Cruz’s lead had ballooned back to double digits statewide—and O’Rourke’s support in the outbound areas of the state’s four major cities had plummeted. It seemed unfair: O’Rourke had been nuanced and eloquent in his response, saluting the military and emphasizing that people of goodwill could disagree on the matter, yet Cruz had seized on the final soundbite to paint him as a radical. But distinctions, not fairness, are the currency of a campaign—and the sharper those distinctions, the more primitive and oversimplified, the better. In the boiled-down shorthand of electoral politics, O’Rourke sided with minorities and national anthem protesters; Cruz sided with military members and the American flag.
 

There is so much wrong in that article regardless of the outcome Tuesday.
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Thought this was the most interesting part of the article:

For Cruz, that’s actually good news. His team’s forecast of total turnout has hovered between 6 million and 6.5 million, and they have yet to see a model in which O’Rourke hits 3 million votes—making it something of a “magic number” for Cruz. They expect to win 65 percent of whites and hope to hit 40 percent among Hispanics. (There could be an inverted relationship in his performance among the two groups: Cruz’s numbers dropped noticeably in the Houston area following his recent rally with Trump, consultants in both parties told me, but his numbers in the exurban and rural areas spiked in offsetting fashion.)

The math for O’Rourke, Democrats acknowledge, is more complicated. He likely needs at least 13 percent of voters to be African-American, and has to win 90 percent of them; he needs at least 17 percent to be Latino, and win 65 percent of them; and then he needs to win 40 percent of white voters. This is not impossible; when Obama flipped Hispanic-heavy states such as Nevada and Colorado in 2008, the key was his breaking 40 percent among whites. The problem for O’Rourke is that white voters in Texas behave more like southern Republicans than western Republicans; many are culturally and politically programmed to lean right of center. In the event of a photo-finish defeat, O’Rourke’s failure to capture more of these voters would be the likely explanation.

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22 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

lol.  i wonder if they really believe that, or if in a moment of honesty they would take back that moment and not cause the viral video that launched Beto to political stardom

they may not be wrong that Beto is going to lose, but I can't agree with the analysis of why, and what was bad for Beto and good for Cruz

I do agree with their assessment that he has not spent his money wisely and that latino outreach should have been more of a priority. I've been saying it for months on here that he let Cruz define him on tv for a month and the bi-weekly trips to hipster Austin/uptown Dallas would have been better spent in San Antonio & South/SE Texas. 

Quote

Meanwhile, Cruz’s campaign has been unrelenting, rolling out a series of closing attack ads meant to step on the challenger’s neck. On paper, having raised $70 million—at least double what Cruz has accrued since the beginning of 2017—O’Rourke should have the resources to counter every negative Cruz spot with a positive one of his own. Yet that isn’t the case; while O’Rourke continues to pump historic amounts of money into digital advertising, primarily via Facebook, Cruz outspent him on television in the final two weeks of October. And, according to media-buy figures, Cruz is poised to outspend O’Rourke by nearly $1 million in the campaign’s final weeks.

Strategists in both parties seemed dumbfounded by this. An acceptable explanation would be that O’Rourke has dumped enormous resources elsewhere—a historic early-voting turnout operation aimed at Hispanics, perhaps. But nobody I spoke with on the ground had seen or heard of such an effort.

Quote

“There needed to be more resources spent around Beto, more organization and more fundamental work done to turn out the base,” said Matt Angle, president of the Lone Star Project, a liberal activist group. “Beto has done a good job of energizing new [white] voters, but there’s an underlying Latino and African-American base here that could have been mobilized. If he loses a close race, I’ll look at that as the missed opportunity.”

 

Edited by Bruh Man
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Good 60 minutes piece on both Cruz and Beto.  

As for the pre post-mortem, I’ve also been critical that Beto should have run more attack ads on Cruz.  But Beto got to where he his on his message.  If he loses following his beliefs then Texas is stating that fear/hate is the path forward for the time being.   Beto in the senate isn’t going to open the borders or Medicaid for all.    I don’t agree with Beto 100% but I’m also not a single issue voter.  

The message of hope and goodness should always stop hate and fear.   If Tuesday brings the opposite, then onto the next battle. 

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9 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Thought this was the most interesting part of the article:

For Cruz, that’s actually good news. His team’s forecast of total turnout has hovered between 6 million and 6.5 million, and they have yet to see a model in which O’Rourke hits 3 million votes—making it something of a “magic number” for Cruz. They expect to win 65 percent of whites and hope to hit 40 percent among Hispanics. (There could be an inverted relationship in his performance among the two groups: Cruz’s numbers dropped noticeably in the Houston area following his recent rally with Trump, consultants in both parties told me, but his numbers in the exurban and rural areas spiked in offsetting fashion.)

The math for O’Rourke, Democrats acknowledge, is more complicated. He likely needs at least 13 percent of voters to be African-American, and has to win 90 percent of them; he needs at least 17 percent to be Latino, and win 65 percent of them; and then he needs to win 40 percent of white voters. This is not impossible; when Obama flipped Hispanic-heavy states such as Nevada and Colorado in 2008, the key was his breaking 40 percent among whites. The problem for O’Rourke is that white voters in Texas behave more like southern Republicans than western Republicans; many are culturally and politically programmed to lean right of center. In the event of a photo-finish defeat, O’Rourke’s failure to capture more of these voters would be the likely explanation.

Isn't 6 to 6.5 million off by about 2 million votes?

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Long early postmortem from Politico.
One thing I found interesting is that Cruz's campaign manager, Jeff Roe, planted the NFL/anthem question to Beto.
 
The video went viral, amassing some 50 million views to date. Athletes tweeted their support. Ellen DeGeneres invited O’Rourke on her show. Online fundraising went through the roof. And it was exactly what Cruz needed. His campaign’s internal polls had tightened. Around the time the video exploded online, Cruz had dropped into the mid-40s and the candidates were in a statistical tie for the first time. O’Rourke's response—to a question, it turns out, asked by Roe’s employee—provided just the cultural wedge issue Cruz needed. His team quickly brought in Tim Lee, a double-amputee Vietnam veteran, to tape attack ads. Airing first online and then on television, keeping the anthem story front-and-center for weeks in the Texas press, Lee says in the spots, “I gave two legs for this country. I’m unable to stand, but I sure expect you to stand for me when that national anthem is being played.”
By the end of September, according to tracking numbers I reviewed, Cruz’s lead had ballooned back to double digits statewide—and O’Rourke’s support in the outbound areas of the state’s four major cities had plummeted. It seemed unfair: O’Rourke had been nuanced and eloquent in his response, saluting the military and emphasizing that people of goodwill could disagree on the matter, yet Cruz had seized on the final soundbite to paint him as a radical. But distinctions, not fairness, are the currency of a campaign—and the sharper those distinctions, the more primitive and oversimplified, the better. In the boiled-down shorthand of electoral politics, O’Rourke sided with minorities and national anthem protesters; Cruz sided with military members and the American flag.
 

FWIW- I never thought Beto answered that question the right way. His answer should have been:

“No offense, ma’am, but how NFL players act on the sidelines doesn’t keep you safe, lower your taxes or get better wages for working people. It’s something politicians want you to worry about so you won’t hold them accountable.
I stand, and I’m running for the Senate, not NFL commissioner.”
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10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Probably not--off by 0.5 to 1M votes.

Most likely we are over 6m already.  In the top 30 counties, 4.8m voted by Friday end of day.    Those counties represent 78% of the voters.  If the small counties voted at the same rate as the large ones, then we’re north of 6m now.  

Now perhaps the emotions are running so high that the people that will vote this year have all shown up.  Then we see only 500k vote on Tuesday. Or maybe we will see 2m show up.  

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Good 60 minutes piece on both Cruz and Beto.  

As for the pre post-mortem, I’ve also been critical that Beto should have run more attack ads on Cruz.  But Beto got to where he his on his message.  If he loses following his beliefs then Texas is stating that fear/hate is the path forward for the time being.   Beto in the senate isn’t going to open the borders or Medicaid for all.    I don’t agree with Beto 100% but I’m also not a single issue voter.  

The message of hope and goodness should always stop hate and fear.   If Tuesday brings the opposite, then onto the next battle. 

He didn't even need attack ads. He just needed ads, period. And not just ones of him staring into a camera giving a monologue. He should have called up Putnam Partners and hired them the second they released MJ Hegar's "Doors" spot.

He needed a little bit more of a traditional campaign down the stretch in that regard. You're not selling out by hiring an ad agency, a few pollsters, and consultants. You're hiring them to help you develop a strategy so you work smarter and be more efficient with your messaging. 

Edited by Bruh Man
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Why don't we get through Tuesday before picking apart his campaign? If he wins, then he'll have done every fucking thing right. I don't need Karl Rove to tell me Beto should have done more to appeal to Rove's family, or organizers who have been failing to get Texans to vote in election after election how he should have done his GOTV.

Edited by horncyclist
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Just now, horncyclist said:

Why don't we get through Tuesday before picking apart his campaign? If he wins, then he'll have done every fucking thing right. I don't need Karl Rove to tell me Beto should have done more to appeal to Rove's family, or organizers who have beers failing to get Texans to vote in election after election how he should have done his GOTV.

Moreover, can we discuss the obvious flaws of the Ted Cruz campaign? The main one being that Ted Cruz is a giant piece of shit.

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538 is estimating 7.15 million for turnout in Texas. Number is up from previous weeks and as a result Beto’s % chance of winning has eeked higher.

Should turnout go significantly beyond this then who knows how this shakes out. From that politico article Cruz’s last opponent got 41% for basically doing nothing.  

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6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Why don't we get through Tuesday before picking apart his campaign? If he wins, then he'll have done every fucking thing right. I don't need Karl Rove to tell me Beto should have done more to appeal to Rove's family, or organizers who have been failing to get Texans to vote in election after election how he should have done his GOTV.

This

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The gop, including Rove are scared to death about Beto.   Hence why they making pre election comments that Beto screwed up. “If I had run it, he would be walking into the senate.  Blah blah.”   I guarantee this will be their messaging tomorrow.   They don’t want to talk about why you should vote for Cruz.  They want to paint Beto as a loser because they’re afraid of the early vote totals (and their own exit polling) they are seeing. 

That politico article mentions that Cruz doesn’t see a model of how Beto can win 3m votes in 6m turnout.   I think Cruz will struggle to find 4m in a 8m turnout.   He doesn’t have a presidential race or even a competitive governor race to pull him along. He’s on his own and struggling.  

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The gop, including Rove are scared to death about Beto.   Hence why they making pre election comments that Beto screwed up. “If I had run it, he would be walking into the senate.  Blah blah.”   I guarantee this will be their messaging tomorrow.   They don’t want to talk about why you should vote for Cruz.  They want to paint Beto as a loser because they’re afraid of the early vote totals (and their own exit polling) they are seeing. 

That politico article mentions that Cruz doesn’t see a model of how Beto can win 3m votes in 6m turnout.   I think Cruz will struggle to find 4m in a 8m turnout.   He doesn’t have a presidential race or even a competitive governor race to pull him along. He’s on his own and struggling.  

It seems odd that Politico, which I understand to generally be a legit publication, is running with this story pre-election day.  Maybe, I don't know, wait until the results are in?

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1 minute ago, Brandywine said:

Beto did everything the way he wanted it. Cruz had the easiest path. You can always second guess anything. I just admire the shit out of Beto. 

Seeing him in person today was awesome.  I just want more people like him in public office.  Actual genuine human beings.  There are so many empty suits.  It's so nice seeing a human being who isn't a complete piece of shit.

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Beto did everything the way he wanted it. Cruz had the easiest path. You can always second guess anything. I just admire the shit out of Beto. 

The Politico article second guessing, before the election, that Beto should have run as a moderate ignores not only the past results in Texas, where moderate milquetoast candidate after candidate have been trounced, but also the current reality, where in the special elections, primaries, and polls, progressives running as unapologetic progressives have had real success.
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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Thought this was the most interesting part of the article:

For Cruz, that’s actually good news. His team’s forecast of total turnout has hovered between 6 million and 6.5 million, and they have yet to see a model in which O’Rourke hits 3 million votes—making it something of a “magic number” for Cruz. They expect to win 65 percent of whites and hope to hit 40 percent among Hispanics. (There could be an inverted relationship in his performance among the two groups: Cruz’s numbers dropped noticeably in the Houston area following his recent rally with Trump, consultants in both parties told me, but his numbers in the exurban and rural areas spiked in offsetting fashion.)

The math for O’Rourke, Democrats acknowledge, is more complicated. He likely needs at least 13 percent of voters to be African-American, and has to win 90 percent of them; he needs at least 17 percent to be Latino, and win 65 percent of them; and then he needs to win 40 percent of white voters. This is not impossible; when Obama flipped Hispanic-heavy states such as Nevada and Colorado in 2008, the key was his breaking 40 percent among whites. The problem for O’Rourke is that white voters in Texas behave more like southern Republicans than western Republicans; many are culturally and politically programmed to lean right of center. In the event of a photo-finish defeat, O’Rourke’s failure to capture more of these voters would be the likely explanation.

So if his team forecasted between 6-6.5 million votes, and we're at 5.8 million already, could that be considered a problem for Cruz?

 

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27 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:


The Politico article second guessing, before the election, that Beto should have run as a moderate ignores not only the past results in Texas, where moderate milquetoast candidate after candidate have been trounced, but also the current reality, where in the special elections, primaries, and polls, progressives running as unapologetic progressives have had real success.

This. The fact is that nobody knows how a Democrat can win Texas until one actually does.

Trump's approval rating hanging at 40% despite him progressively becoming and even bigger piece of shit over the past 20 months demonstrates the folly of attempting to appeal to Republicans. Beto is 100% correct that his path to victory is turning this state from the worst in voter turnout into something better. There are new people who haven't yet chosen a side who need to be targeted.

Phil Bredesen in TN has as good a shot as Beto, if not better, running as a moderate. But he's already a household name there, so it's apples to oranges.

I do share the same criticism as many of you about Beto's campaign. Particularly his ad buys in the late summer to early fall months and perceived lack of outreach to latino voters. I took it as a bad sign that he lost so many of the border counties during the primary. Hopefully, he gets a big election day turnout.

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Beto’s biggest challenge for a long time was name recognition. It’s in this thread. His numbers at the beginning were like 40% no opinion. Going moderate was never going to help with name recognition, which is clearly no longer an issue. It also so happens that running moderate isn’t who Beto is which would have been disingenuous.

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I would still agree with Bruh Man (I think) who above was saying something along the lines of what I've said before - I wish Beto's TV ads had been more in the vein of what MJ Hegar has done.  I think Beto is great at events and passionately delivering his message.  It works phenomenally when people are there (events) or "there" (Facebook live) and the talking head commercials are fine, but it's easy for a viewer who doesn't give a shit or who is already poisoned against what you have to say to not listen at all.  There's no shame in making it engaging and drawing the viewer in.  But he's run a great campaign and if he manages to win, then the fact that he's done it not the "smart" way makes it all the better and all second guessing is out the window.

 

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

It seems odd that Politico, which I understand to generally be a legit publication, is running with this story pre-election day.  Maybe, I don't know, wait until the results are in?

Yeah it makes no sense to publish that right now. Really odd.

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4 minutes ago, thepop said:

Yeah it makes no sense to publish that right now. Really odd.

Their other top article right now is that House Republicans are begging trump to stop talking about immigration and focus on the economy.  Trump told them he won’t even if it costs him house seats.  His focus is just on the senate.  Maybe the Beto articls is balancing the trump story.    Hit both sides at the same time.  

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23 hours ago, Patron said:

I'd of told the old sob that I already voted for Beto 5 times and plan on voting for him numerous times Tuesday.

I've got a crew of Hondurans and we've all been voting 5 times a day since early voting started...

 

On a more serious note, a friend of mine has been making a living covering Texas politics for about 45 years and he think Beto is gonna get crushed, based on the number of olds who have voted early. He actually said Beto will be lucky to crack 40 percent. I hope to hell he's wrong, but he's a smart fucker and on the frontlines. 

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I've got a crew of Hondurans and we've all been voting 5 times a day since early voting started...
 
On a more serious note, a friend of mine has been making a living covering Texas politics for about 45 years and he think Beto is gonna get crushed, based on the number of olds who have voted early. He actually said Beto will be lucky to crack 40 percent. I hope to hell he's wrong, but he's a smart fucker and on the frontlines. 

David Alameel got 35% in 2014. Your friend is nuts.
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