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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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Posted (edited)

Good article: 

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/democrat-beto-orourke-texas-senate-race.html

The latino turnout in Texas is depressing. Hopefully this changes but I'm not optimistic about it.

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The depressing problem for Democrats — and maybe also their opportunity — is that the Texas electorate looks a lot different from the Texas population. In 2016, only about 46 percent of the state’s roughly 20 million voting-age adults made it to the polls, one of the lowest figures in the country. Turnout for the last midterm election was even worse, around 25 percent. The Texans who do vote skew to the right and white. As Harry Enten pointed out earlier this year on FiveThirtyEight, a poll in 2016 found that a majority of Texas adults approved of President Obama’s performance, but when the sample was narrowed to likely voters, the results showed a Republican swing of 13 points. Around 36 percent of Texas’s adult population is Latino, but Latinos represented only 17 percent of the electorate in the last two midterm elections.

Also this is frustrating...

Quote

Republicans have also used their monolithic control of government to erect structural defenses. Many Democratic strategists doubt they can win without a massive registration effort, but O’Rourke supporters can’t just sign people up. By law, they must first take a class and be certified as “volunteer deputy registrars” in the county where they operate. Partly as a consequence, most organizations that have had success in this area have relied on paid canvassers, not volunteers, which means diverting money from other campaign activities.

Then, registered Texan voters who make it to the polls have to get past the state’s stringent voter-ID law, which Democrats claim is flagrantly biased against them. A concealed-weapons permit is a valid form; a student ID is not. Republicans are eager to pursue any whiff of fraud. (A Texas judge recently sentenced a woman to five years in prison for voting while on parole.) If they reach the booth, they usually are presented with a ballot on which Democrats present only token competition. No wonder, Democrats say, that many voters are disengaged. “We suffer from a dynamic of some very concerted efforts to suppress the Democratic vote in our state,” says Wendy Davis, the party’s 2014 nominee for governor. “And it works.”

 

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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Cruz better avoid any and all debates, because there’s three areas he could get hammered on:

  1. in 2016, who was lying, Cruz or Trump, and also, why did Cruz eventually kiss the ring, given Trump’s treatment of his wife and father.  If you’re gonna represent Texas, act like it.
  2. Cambridge Analytica
  3. Family separations - why isn’t he going balls to-the-wall on this one.
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Vince_McCoy_Williams

Vince_McCoy_Williams 98

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13 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

You sound just like posters in the CR in 2016 scoffing that Trump could never be elected.

Beto may or may not win, but the attitudes in state toward the GOP are genuinely shifting.

Yeah whatever dude. I was the one who predicted Trump would win. I have got a pretty good pulse on this. The only thing that is even slightly shifting is the amount of illegals still pouring in and diluting the population of Texas and dumbfuck Californians coming over here to flee their shithole and then turn around and vote for the same kind of retards that fucked up California. 

 

GOP is and will be strong in Texas despite that. Beto doesnt have a snowballs chance in hell short of a groundbreaking scandal with Cruz. You know it deep down too. But hey, keep phone banking and donating. Maybe he will lose by 10 instead of 11. LOL 

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Vince_McCoy_Williams

Vince_McCoy_Williams 98

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16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Decades?   I know it’s fun to put the blinders on and pretend like Texas is some kind of Republican bastion, but two decades ago, while the US Senators may have been R, Texas was run by Democrats.

And  that was before white people in Texas dropped below 50% of the state back in 2005.

By 2010, whites were making up around 45% of the state.

Texas was blue in our lifetimes, and it’s going to be again  

 

Im aware of our state's history. All Im saying is, Texas isnt going to go for a fucking poser like Robert O Rourke. He is your typical smug liberal and the non-idiots see right through his shit. 

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1384

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Smart move. There's no upside for Cruz debating Beto.
At a certain point looking like an unaccountable coward outweighs the avoided risk of not debating. I think this race is close enough that is the case, though Cruz will probably try to limit it to a single debate.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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16 minutes ago, horncyclist said:
1 hour ago, relapse98 said:
Smart move. There's no upside for Cruz debating Beto.

At a certain point looking like an unaccountable coward outweighs the avoided risk of not debating. I think this race is close enough that is the case, though Cruz will probably try to limit it to a single debate.

Cruz will demand the debate occur at a night/time that nobody will see it.  

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20874

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5 hours ago, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Yeah whatever dude. I was the one who predicted Trump would win. I have got a pretty good pulse on this. The only thing that is even slightly shifting is the amount of illegals still pouring in and diluting the population of Texas and dumbfuck Californians coming over here to flee their shithole and then turn around and vote for the same kind of retards that fucked up California. 

 

GOP is and will be strong in Texas despite that. Beto doesnt have a snowballs chance in hell short of a groundbreaking scandal with Cruz. You know it deep down too. But hey, keep phone banking and donating. Maybe he will lose by 10 instead of 11. LOL 

Politifact indicates that this is half true - you have a pulse.  

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relapse98

relapse98 634

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1 hour ago, horncyclist said:
2 hours ago, relapse98 said:
Smart move. There's no upside for Cruz debating Beto.

At a certain point looking like an unaccountable coward outweighs the avoided risk of not debating

Not to those who are going to vote for Cruz. Remember, this is the guy who's batshit crazy wife was insulted by the current president of the US, posted a picture from a pr0n video on his twitters, who's father probably was involved in killing JFK, etc.

Him being a coward - if the voters don't care about the previous things said about him, they don't care about him being a coward.

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bularry1

bularry1 23

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On 7/10/2018 at 11:49 AM, Ghost of LL said:

Where I live, a huge chunk of our non-white population is South Asian.  They used to vote R in pretty strong numbers.  Then they figured out that Rs hate people with brown skin.  Now they're as D as it gets.  

They went' from being not-particularly-engaged voters to being some of the most politically-engaged people I know.  They're well educated, and used to have a very "wait and see" attitude about politics.  Now, they've waited and seen, and they've become very activist.

maybe that will happen here, at some point, but I'm speaking of Chinese and Indian recent immigrants and they don't seem to dig the Dem economic policies in general.   Of course I say that and an Indian lady was running as a Dem in a recent election, but the majority of candidates we've had from those communities have been staunchly on the right.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15348

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2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

The latest Gravis poll from yesterday I believe had it 51-42 Cruz over Beto.  Abbott was up 51-41 on Valdez.

It is almost incomprehensible to me that those two races are in the same place.  

And I have to tell you--I'm not buying.  That has the whiff of a pollster playing with the numbers to get an outcome they think is right.  And given the pollster involved, that wouldn't surprise me at all.

If I had to guess, I'd say Cruz is +6 and Abbott is +15.

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Js1

Js1 85056

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And I have to tell you--I'm not buying.  That has the whiff of a pollster playing with the numbers to get an outcome they think is right.  And given the pollster involved, that wouldn't surprise me at all.

If I had to guess, I'd say Cruz is +6 and Abbott is +15.

Any thoughts on Paxton up 4 (or 3, I can't remember) and Daniela Goeb up 2?

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15348

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17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Any thoughts on Paxton up 4 (or 3, I can't remember) and Daniela Goeb up 2?

Uh--yeah.  Maybe?

I think that's somewhat believable that Cruz could be running ahead of them.  What's the worst thing about Cruz?  That's he's a sleaze, a cuck, an asshole, and has an eminently punchable face?  Sure--all those things; and that explains why I think he is running behind Abbott (and other polls reflect that).

But what can be said about Paxton and Patrick are a lot worse.  Paxton is either so incompetent or corrupt (or possibly both) that he could be convicted of securities fraud in the next year or so.  And anyway--he's one of those tea party types who the establishment has always disliked.

Patrick is just a right-wing lunatic who has run afoul of the business lobby.  Whatever you think of Cruz, the business lobby doesn't hate him.

So I don't know--maybe it's conceivable.

That raises an interesting question--we've all thought that Valdez was bad for the Democrats because she's such a poor candidate.  But is she really going to depress Democratic turnout in this midterm election?  Maybe a bit, but probably not that much because Beto is really at the top of the ticket, and he's going to have Democrats plenty enthusiastic.

But on the Republican side--wouldn't they be more energized if there was an actual challenge to Abbott?  Abbott is popular.  Republicans would be enthusiastic about protecting him, if in fact he needed protection.  But as it is, can't moderate/business Republicans say "even if I stay at home, Abbott's safe.  And I don't really give a fuck about protecting guys like Cruz/Patrick/Paxton/Miller"?

I don't know.  I can see that working out either way.  But I think it's really interesting.

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Js1

Js1 85056

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I've always thought Beto was the top of the ticket. Neither White nor Lupe was going to decide what happens to Democrats in Texas in 2018.  Sink or swim with Beto. He will be the one that pulls Fletcher, Allred, Ortiz Jones, etc. across the finish line. 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32290

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18 hours ago, Vince_McCoy_Williams said:

Im aware of our state's history. All Im saying is, Texas isnt going to go for a fucking poser like Robert O Rourke . He is your typical smug liberal and the non-idiots see right through his shit. 

Probably not, but they have went for a poser in Ted Cruz.  What a fucking cuck.  

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15348

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The Texas Tribune article says that Cruz raised $4 million over the same period and has $10 million on hand to Beto's $14 million.

So he can be on television statewide from about August 15 to Election Day. So that’s great. Now he needs to take advantage of the opportunity.


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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11360

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9 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

He needs to do name recognition stuff now.  Just buy a dozen billboards in every major city that just say BETO.  

The name isn't enough. Everyone knew who wendy Davis was. Beto needs a message along with the name. He needs good marketing. He needs a slogan. I'm probably not smart enough to think of it, but he now needs to move beyond name into a real message beyond "I'm not Cruz I care." 

He wins with a message. He loses with name only. 

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Shinesintx

Shinesintx 53

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31 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

Beto needs a message

He wins with a message. He loses with name only. 

Let’s see...raise taxes, kill more babies, abolish ICE, let more illegals in, open borders, Russia Russia Russia. Yep, that ought to do it.

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Texas73

Texas73 420

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6 minutes ago, Shinesintx said:

Let’s see...raise taxes, kill more babies, abolish ICE, let more illegals in, open borders, Russia Russia Russia. Yep, that ought to do it.

Bullshit. These are not Beto stances. Fuck you.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

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There are some things in Beto's website outline of his positions that I 100% support, his positions on government accountability.  His positions on healthcare are vague enough such that it's difficult to do a good assessment of all of them, but the ones that do have some flesh to them are a hot mess.  I'd be interested in hearing the opinion of folks at the UT system on his plan to leverage universities to control price inflation in education. He's got a nod to Bernie's free college in there, but restricts it to high demand fields and underserved communities. I agree with his national security talking points. I don't see anywhere where he discusses his tax proposals.  Probably smart to leave that out.  Here's the government accountability points:   

  • We must end perpetual reelection and bring new voices to Congress by imposing term limits on every member of the House and Senate. This is why I have committed to serving only two terms if I am elected to the U.S. Senate.
  • Texans send their hard-earned money to Washington with the expectation that it is working to improve their lives, not cater to special interest groups. Let’s get big money out of Washington and ensure legislation isn’t written by the highest bidder. This begins with preventing politicians from accepting money from Political Action Committees (PACs) and returning power to electorate. That’s why I introduced the No PAC Act (H.R.1743), which would prevent any elected official from accepting PAC contributions.
  • End gerrymandering where members of Congress choose their voters instead of the other way around. We should have a non-partisan, non-politician redistricting commission that ends the practice of racial gerrymandering that has drawn people out of their democracy based on their race and ethnicity.
  • Ensuring the government works more efficiently and costs less by eliminating redundant or outdated federal regulations and improving transparency and oversight of federal agencies.
  •  
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Viper

Viper 12011

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I guess Beto really is thinking he can win. I've had a spam text message and two college kids on my doorstep asking if I will support him. I don't remember having anything like that before.

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Js1

Js1 85056

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15 minutes ago, Viper said:

I guess Beto really is thinking he can win. I've had a spam text message and two college kids on my doorstep asking if I will support him. I don't remember having anything like that before.

That's because Beto knows if he's going to win, he has to turn out non-voters.  People who don't traditionally vote in midterms and people who don't vote period. And it's a great strategy because -

1. Texas has abysmal voter participation rates.  Texas was 47/50 in 2016, with 55% participation.  National average was 61%.  It was 53.8% in 2012.  And, oh yeah, Texas was DEAD LAST in participation in 2010 and 2014 midterms.

2. Texas has abysmal voter registration rates. 44/50 with 68% of eligible citizens registered. Only 48% of Texans aged 18-24 are registered, which is well below that age group's national average (55%).

Beto needs to plow about 15% of that big money into voter registration.  Get people deputized to register folks.  Blanket the college campuses across the state and register every 18 year old in high school (and the eligible 17 year olds who will be 18 by Election Day).  The March for our Lives kids from Parkland were in Houston recently doing registration for that specifically.

Edited by Js1
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