Cruz vs Beto

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[hobbes2702 12771]

3 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Prove anything I said about LBJ and the CRA  is wrong. 

Hint:  you can’t 

 

So you just ignored what I said? Because I already proved how you were wrong.

Thanks for playing.

Edited November 6, 2018 by hobbes2702

[Gatorubet 30052]

2 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Prove anything I said about LBJ and the CRA  is wrong. 

Hint:  you can’t 

 

Lack of Swam denial noted.  

[bolverk 29356]

Here's a good discussion about that purported quote from "ask historians" on reddit:

 

[hobbes2702 12771]

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

Lack of Swam denial noted.  

There’s a reason for his username.

[David Dennison 18582]

5 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Prove anything I said about LBJ and the CRA  is wrong. 

Hint:  you can’t 

 

Can you provide any primary sources for the LBJ quote?

[HouTex2017 110]

21 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I bet you like your middle class welfare, though. You know, the kind you don't know about or conveniently forget about. You should thank the government for helping you get where you are in life.

Thanks I needed a good laugh after that Cowboy game.

[hobbes2702 12771]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Here's a good discussion about that purported quote from "ask historians" on reddit:

 

Yea that particular quote is questionable but LBJ undoubtedly was fond of the hard r. He also was undoubtedly racist. It doesn’t change the fact that he was the single most important person in the passing of the civil rights act.

[bolverk 29356]

5 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Prove anything I said about LBJ and the CRA  is wrong. 

Hint:  you can’t 

 

You made the assertion.

Hint: The onus is on you to prove the veracity of your statements.

[David Dennison 18582]

Just now, HouTex2017 said:

Thanks I needed a good laugh after that Cowboy game.

That just means I'm right. You like your middle class government handouts because you don't see them. They are hidden. That's the point.

Stop being a dick.

[hobbes2702 12771]

Good to have swam back. He always was a fun punching bag 

[hobbes2702 12771]

Just now, David Dennison said:

That just means I'm right. You like your middle class government handouts because you don't see them. They are hidden. That's the point.

Stop being a dick.

He’s a troll.

[HouTex2017 110]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

That just means I'm right. You like your middle class government handouts because you don't see them. They are hidden. That's the point.

Stop being a dick.

Please by all means, name them. 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

The anus?!

[Jack Burton 35]

The Southern Strategy was not taught to Cloak Room conservatives. Every time it is brought up, it's fucking crickets.

"Lincoln was a Republican!" As they wave their Confederate flag and speak of his support for states rights.

[Mack Tripper 693]

Not sure why so many people got pissed, but it was a thing around there.   Maybe the family was well-known.

So the prosecutors even said the dude was a dick and didn’t deserve a deal. There are really no legitimate mitigating factors here that justify commuting his sentence other than the obvious non-legit factor that the dude is white in a very brown and black criminal justice system.

[bolverk 29356]

3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Yea that particular quote is questionable but LBJ undoubtedly was fond of the hard r. He also was undoubtedly racist. It doesn’t change the fact that he was the single most important person in the passing of the civil rights act.

I'm not sure how racist he really was given the legislation he pushed so hard for and his apparent tactic of making the Dixiecrats believe he was one of them up until the CRA.

[hobbes2702 12771]

Just now, bolverk said:

I'm not sure how racist he really was given the legislation he pushed so hard for and his apparent tactic of making the Dixiecrats believe he was one of them up until the CRA.

He was a racist long before he fought for the CRA.

[David Dennison 18582]

4 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Please by all means, name them. 

Mortgage guarantees, student loan guarantees, subsidies in the form of tax breaks. You know, the stuff you never think about.

Oh, and Medicare and Social Security when you get old. Let's count those, too.

Edited November 6, 2018 by David Dennison

[HouTex2017 110]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Mortgage guarantees, student loan guarantees, subsidies in the form of tax breaks. You know, the stuff you never think about.

Oh, and Medicare and Social Security when you get old. Let's count those, too.

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

[David Dennison 18582]

2 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

Yes, I'm sure you've done it all by yourself without one bit of help from the federal government.

 

[Gil Bang 25859]

Hey dipshit, LOANS means you pay the money back, plus interest

[cactusflinthead 27593]

After y'all get done with him could you work on my dog's calculus? I've been trying but he just ain't getting it.

[thepop 4409]

PSA: Turn on Colbert if you like Triumph the insult comic dog. Next segment he's going to Cruz and Beto rallies.

[David Dennison 18582]

It's always funny to me how people in the middle class of a certain political persuasion don't understand that the market would eat them alive if they tried to compete for capital on their own. They really believe that banks would loan them money without a little nudge from Uncle Sam.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

8 minutes ago, thepop said:

PSA: Turn on Colbert if you like Triumph the insult comic dog. Next segment he's going to Cruz and Beto rallies.

Beto segment was funny.

Cruz segment was funny.  Surprised Robert Smigel got out of there without getting his ass kicked.

[thepop 4409]

 

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Beto segment was funny.

Cruz segment was funny.  Surprised Robert Smigel got out of there without getting his ass kicked.

It was glorious.

[Satchel 6908]

59 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Give me a fucking break.  It took the GOP to pass the Civil Rights Act. The only reason LBJ pushed the CRA was this statement 

“I'll have them niggers voting Democratic for the next two hundred years”. [Said to two governors regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to then-Air Force One steward Robert MacMillan]

LBJ was a fucking, corupt, racist pig and the fact you idolize that POS speaks volumes about your ignorance   

 

Yeah, well, LBJ said a lot of things:

"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you"

LBJ

[Guest Lobo]

14 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's always funny to me how people in the middle class of a certain political persuasion don't understand that the market would eat them alive if they tried to compete for capital on their own. They really believe that banks would loan them money without a little nudge from Uncle Sam.

Wait until they find out how bridge lending works.  

[atomheartbevo 89353]

1 minute ago, thepop said:

It was glorious.

Cruz took a gut punch on that last joke.  You could see the pain in his face.

[hobbes2702 12771]

Ouch. Hilarious to watch that fuck squirm

[Fozzz 152]

Someone's been reading Dinesh D'Souza.  The most influential American historian of our day.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

34 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

Don’t overlook your disability payments because of your sore knee. 

[Gil Bang 25859]

19 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Someone's been reading Dinesh D'Souza.  The most influential American historian of our day.  

Kevin M. Kruse is a great twitter follow, as he fucking dismantles D'Souza on a regular basis.   He's an actual historian.  Teaches at Princeton. 

[zork 629]

This was done because I was curious what might the voting look like given what we know, total early and mailed in votes by county, and extrapolating some expected voting numbers given some assumptions.(your assumptions may vary of course)  This is probably a very flawed analysis. 

TLDR:

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D from early voting extrapolated by taking known party affiliated voting and applying it to unknown party voting and new voting by respective percentage.

Here is what I did and where I got the data:

Here is a link from the DMN that has the 15 largest county total early and mailed in vote totals. I extrapolated those and here they are with the total number of 4,068,191 votes from those large counties.

What percentage of Beto vs Cruz percentages for previously non R and D voters and new voters should you assign for the votes in those counties? 

Then you would have to assume that the largest counties would be largely more D(Beto)- centric, right with the out in the sticks counties being more R(Cruz)-centric?

15 Big county total vote totals by county:

BEXER	368048
CAMERON	54576
COLLIN	286393
DALLAS	529521
DENTON	228650
EL PASO	139105
FORT BEND	199267
GALVESTON	90166
HARRIS	855711
HILDAGO	114560
MONTGOMERY	138125
NUECES	67630
TARRANT	465817
TRAVIS	368048
WILLIAMSON	162574
Total Votes*	4068191

*SUM from  totals graphic below:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/03/early-voting-turnout-dallas-north-texas-counties-double-past-midterm-elections

Also here is an image of the % of the various sub totals by those same counties:

 

If you assign R percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the R's and D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to respective party totals.  So original R percentage added to the R/R+D percentage= expected R vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total R expected early vote.(then next column is then D percentage of voters)

For the D's you do the same:

you assign D percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to the D totals.  So original D percentage added to the D/R+D percentage= expected D vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total D expected early vote.

You get these expected percentages with no EXTRA Beto effect, just adding the green and yellow and then multiplying that by the R percentage and the D percentage respectively.(also ignoring the noise "mixed" columns that seem to be a virtual wash and are why the two columns below don't add to 100%)

 

BEXER												48.1848948375		49.1151051625
CAMERON												23.7067395264		71.2932604736
COLLIN												69.4172413793		28.7827586207
DALLAS												43.6393320965		53.9606679035
DENTON												70.0245173745		28.2754826255
EL PASO												20.6803088803		74.1196911197
FORT BEND												58.5945098039		39.7054901961
GALVESTON												70.3354409318		27.0645590682
HARRIS												53.3939163498		44.8060836502
HILDAGO												15.9775043937		78.7224956063
MONTGOMERY												85.1982905983		13.3017094017
NUECES												52.8767888307		43.9232111693
TARRANT												62.3950617284		35.6049382716
TRAVIS												30.820626151		66.479373849
WILLIAMSON												62.5138686131		35.0861313869

 

Multiply those percentages by .01 first, then by the total votes to get these numbers:

BEXER																	177343.541751434		180767.162248566
CAMERON																	12938.1901639344		38909.0098360656
COLLIN																	198806.120103448		82431.8058965517
DALLAS																	231079.427710575		285733.068289425
DENTON																	160111.058976834		64651.891023166
EL PASO																	28767.3436679537		103104.196332046
FORT BEND																	116759.52185098		79119.9391490196
GALVESTON																	63418.6536705491		24403.0303294509
HARRIS																	456897.615536122		383410.586463878
HILDAGO																	18303.8290333919		90184.4909666081
MONTGOMERY																	117680.138888889		18372.9861111111
NUECES																	35760.5722862129		29705.2677137871
TARRANT																	290646.804691358		165853.855308642
TRAVIS																	113434.69813628		244676.00586372
WILLIAMSON																	101631.296759124		57040.9272408759
																	Total Expected R		Total Expected D
																	2123578.81322709		1848364.22277291

 

What does it say:

Large counties if their voting by their new and previously non R and D voters are estimated to vote like the R and D percentages then Beto is in trouble since he has not gained a big lead in the biggest counties.**(where the votes are)

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D is a deficit unlikely to be expected to be picked up by Rural Texas voters.

 

 

What does it not say:

Nothing about sized counties 16 and lower but you would expect Texas rural to be at least 50/50 R/D at minimum.(probably more to the R side if history is a guide)

Nobody can exactly predict how the turnout of any of the category percentages actually is. (Keeping it Simple(Stupid) would say you might be able to extrapolate generically for fun to the unknown population similar to the known.)

What the fudge factor should be for Beto excitement?

What the fudge factor should be for Never Trumpers voting for Cruz?

Who will turnout 11/6/2018?

 

aside:  I was using open office to run the spreadsheet from home and didn't take the time to shave the significant digits down.  But it is uniformly large significant digits so that part shouldn't matter.

 

 

 

 

[Celery Man 20870]

only place i've found so far that has the triumph segment up

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/triumph-the-insult-comic-dog-chats-with-ted-cruz-i-support-spaying-and-neutering-just-like-trump-did-to-you/

[Mole 4318]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

The anus?!

You’re a flawed guy.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

6 hours ago, zork said:

What the fudge factor should be for Never Trumpers voting for Cruz?

I have a hard time believing there are many Never Trump Cruz voters.

[Anastasis 23363]

8 hours ago, Mack Tripper said:

So the prosecutors even said the dude was a dick and didn’t deserve a deal. There are really no legitimate mitigating factors here that justify commuting his sentence other than the obvious non-legit factor that the dude is white in a very brown and black criminal justice system.

If I recall correctly the father, who he attempted to murder, was quite adamant about not killing his son, the sole remaining member of his family. They might have had something to do with it. 

[horncyclist 1384]

6 hours ago, zork said:

This was done because I was curious what might the voting look like given what we know, total early and mailed in votes by county, and extrapolating some expected voting numbers given some assumptions.(your assumptions may vary of course)  This is probably a very flawed analysis. 

TLDR:

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D from early voting extrapolated by taking known party affiliated voting and applying it to unknown party voting and new voting by respective percentage.

Here is what I did and where I got the data:

Here is a link from the DMN that has the 15 largest county total early and mailed in vote totals. I extrapolated those and here they are with the total number of 4,068,191 votes from those large counties.

What percentage of Beto vs Cruz percentages for previously non R and D voters and new voters should you assign for the votes in those counties? 

Then you would have to assume that the largest counties would be largely more D(Beto)- centric, right with the out in the sticks counties being more R(Cruz)-centric?

15 Big county total vote totals by county:

BEXER	368048
CAMERON	54576
COLLIN	286393
DALLAS	529521
DENTON	228650
EL PASO	139105
FORT BEND	199267
GALVESTON	90166
HARRIS	855711
HILDAGO	114560
MONTGOMERY	138125
NUECES	67630
TARRANT	465817
TRAVIS	368048
WILLIAMSON	162574
Total Votes*	4068191

*SUM from  totals graphic below:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/03/early-voting-turnout-dallas-north-texas-counties-double-past-midterm-elections

Also here is an image of the % of the various sub totals by those same counties:

 

If you assign R percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the R's and D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to respective party totals.  So original R percentage added to the R/R+D percentage= expected R vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total R expected early vote.(then next column is then D percentage of voters)

For the D's you do the same:

you assign D percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to the D totals.  So original D percentage added to the D/R+D percentage= expected D vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total D expected early vote.

You get these expected percentages with no EXTRA Beto effect, just adding the green and yellow and then multiplying that by the R percentage and the D percentage respectively.(also ignoring the noise "mixed" columns that seem to be a virtual wash and are why the two columns below don't add to 100%)

 

BEXER												48.1848948375		49.1151051625
CAMERON												23.7067395264		71.2932604736
COLLIN												69.4172413793		28.7827586207
DALLAS												43.6393320965		53.9606679035
DENTON												70.0245173745		28.2754826255
EL PASO												20.6803088803		74.1196911197
FORT BEND												58.5945098039		39.7054901961
GALVESTON												70.3354409318		27.0645590682
HARRIS												53.3939163498		44.8060836502
HILDAGO												15.9775043937		78.7224956063
MONTGOMERY												85.1982905983		13.3017094017
NUECES												52.8767888307		43.9232111693
TARRANT												62.3950617284		35.6049382716
TRAVIS												30.820626151		66.479373849
WILLIAMSON												62.5138686131		35.0861313869

 

Multiply those percentages by .01 first, then by the total votes to get these numbers:

BEXER																	177343.541751434		180767.162248566
CAMERON																	12938.1901639344		38909.0098360656
COLLIN																	198806.120103448		82431.8058965517
DALLAS																	231079.427710575		285733.068289425
DENTON																	160111.058976834		64651.891023166
EL PASO																	28767.3436679537		103104.196332046
FORT BEND																	116759.52185098		79119.9391490196
GALVESTON																	63418.6536705491		24403.0303294509
HARRIS																	456897.615536122		383410.586463878
HILDAGO																	18303.8290333919		90184.4909666081
MONTGOMERY																	117680.138888889		18372.9861111111
NUECES																	35760.5722862129		29705.2677137871
TARRANT																	290646.804691358		165853.855308642
TRAVIS																	113434.69813628		244676.00586372
WILLIAMSON																	101631.296759124		57040.9272408759
																	Total Expected R		Total Expected D
																	2123578.81322709		1848364.22277291

 

What does it say:

Large counties if their voting by their new and previously non R and D voters are estimated to vote like the R and D percentages then Beto is in trouble since he has not gained a big lead in the biggest counties.**(where the votes are)

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D is a deficit unlikely to be expected to be picked up by Rural Texas voters.

 

 

What does it not say:

Nothing about sized counties 16 and lower but you would expect Texas rural to be at least 50/50 R/D at minimum.(probably more to the R side if history is a guide)

Nobody can exactly predict how the turnout of any of the category percentages actually is. (Keeping it Simple(Stupid) would say you might be able to extrapolate generically for fun to the unknown population similar to the known.)

What the fudge factor should be for Beto excitement?

What the fudge factor should be for Never Trumpers voting for Cruz?

Who will turnout 11/6/2018?

 

aside:  I was using open office to run the spreadsheet from home and didn't take the time to shave the significant digits down.  But it is uniformly large significant digits so that part shouldn't matter.

 

 

 

 

I appreciate the efforts but if your math has Beto down by 300k votes in the largest counties through early voting, something is seriously off. Wouldn't that be significantly underperforming Clinton/Trump?

Edited November 6, 2018 by horncyclist

[NBMisha 224]

Last night Chris Hayes was guessing 8 MM to vote in Texas.  Borrowing from Raydog, a 6.5 MM vote gives Cruz a 500M victory.  8 MM gives Beto a slim win.  My memory and math are not what they used to be.

[HornOnTheBayou 8877]

7 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Kevin M. Kruse is a great twitter follow, as he fucking dismantles D'Souza on a regular basis.   He's an actual historian.  Teaches at Princeton. 

Yep. Love that guy.

 

[Homercles 10205]

You guys are such idiots and clueless.  Keep it up.  

[BurntOrange&White 39481]

When do early numbers start coming out?

[Js1 85050]

5 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

When do early numbers start coming out?

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katherinemiller/midterms-watch-guide?origin=thum

Some early numbers will pop up at 7pm.   Of course, keep in mind that El Paso won't report anything until 8pm because they're Mountain Time. 

The big counties will take for-fucking-ever to report Election Day totals due to long lines as always.  Republicans will, as usual, scream Democrats are figuring out how many votes they need to rig races for Allred, Fletcher, Beto, etc.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Js1

[HOOK'EMHOOAH 1606]

I'm about to head to my polling station to put in my ballot for Beto. I'm wearing my Humans against Ted Cruz shirt and my Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran hat. I seriously hope someone tries to come at me with some bullshit. I'm not in the mood for fuck-fuck games today.

[Huckleberry 32682]

5 minutes ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

I'm about to head to my polling station to put in my ballot for Beto. I'm wearing my Humans against Ted Cruz shirt and my Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran hat. I seriously hope someone tries to come at me with some bullshit. I'm not in the mood for fuck-fuck games today.

That is electioneering and you can be denied your vote if the person in charge at that location so chooses. The shirt, I mean. It's a class C misdemeanor.

 

[TexasMan 10783]

What's a fuck-fuck game?

[Js1 85050]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

That is electioneering and you can be denied your vote if the person in charge at that location so chooses. The shirt, I mean. It's a class C misdemeanor.

 

Yep.  I'd be iffy.  At worst, bring something to cover it up - like a hoodie or a jacket.  Otherwise, they may turn your ass away.  Especially if is some Bitchy Barbara who thinks Ted looks like a 50s movie star.

[bad_teammate 13125]

9 minutes ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

I'm not in the mood for fuck-fuck games today.

1) You're wearing stuff designed to start confrontation, so you're DEFINITELY in the mood for confrontation.

2) You should always be in the mood for those games, because those are fun games.