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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
in Cloak Room

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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Slacks

Slacks 6829

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

So you delined government assistance via the child tax deduction for the 18 years they were dependents.

The child tax credit is not assistance. It's a credit, like many other credits or deductions.

I don't even know what y'all are arguing. Doesn't matter.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted

So looking at Zork's numbers above, it's really interesting to me that about 30% of the voters have never voted in a primary and about 10% haven't voted period. No clue about past elections, but those are some huge numbers and if they break hard for one candidate they could seriously impact the race.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23480

Posted
Posted

 

15 minutes ago, Snacks said:

The child tax credit is not assistance. It's a credit, like many other credits or deductions.

I don't even know what y'all are arguing. Doesn't matter.

And it phased out starting at 110k married.  Or use to. This year it starts to phase at 400k joint. 

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8719

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, zork said:

TLDR:

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D from early voting extrapolated by taking known party affiliated voting and applying it to unknown party voting and new voting by respective percentage.

Your assumptions are all fucked

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The Dog

The Dog 44071

Posted
Posted (edited)

Most recent poll has Cruz up 9. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18h31Oi90C0teXatPo1CQgpuKnee-MscF/view

52% of the respondents are over 50 btw, but 538 gives this poll a lot of weight since it's right before election day. Likely many respondents already voted. 

Going to be a massive upset if Cruz loses. 

(please don't shoot the messenger)

Edited by The Dog
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Most recent poll has Cruz up 9. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18h31Oi90C0teXatPo1CQgpuKnee-MscF/view

52% of the respondents are over 50 btw, but 538 gives this poll a lot of weight since it's right before election day. Likely many respondents already voted. 

Going to be a massive upset if Cruz loses. 

(please don't shoot the messenger)

old people will never die.

 

the only good news in there was the 44/55 M/F breakdown.

Edited by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17627

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Snacks said:

The child tax credit is not assistance. It's a credit, like many other credits or deductions.

I don't even know what y'all are arguing. Doesn't matter.

Uh, almost any tax credit or deduction is a form of assistance (usually designed to promote certain behavior). Sometimes it affects almost everyone. But things like the child credit or deductions for education expenses preferentially affect certain groups of people.  It is the same thing as if the government sent a subsidy check to each of those people.

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yoladu

yoladu 4094

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Texas73 said:

Beto is a Texan, Rafael is not.

One of the blessings that will come on Nov 7th, no matter if Cruz wins or loses, is that you won't see Ted anywhere near Texas anymore.

 

Edited by yoladu
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17627

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That would be bad news for O'Rourke if the surveyed population was females +10 and he's still down 9 percent.

Indeed. Although it also has Trump's approval rating among the likely voters at 53%. That seems really high to me, even for Texas. 

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Your Mom

Your Mom 4828

Posted
Posted

I saw that happen twice the day I voted in early voting.  One guy was told to turn his Beto shirt inside out or cover it with a jacket.  He didn't make a big deal of it, he was just a young guy ignorant of the rule.  The other guy had a button on, not a Beto button but I couldn't see it.  They made him remove it and of course he made a few 1st Amendment comments like an idiot.

 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, horncyclist said:

I appreciate the efforts but if your math has Beto down by 300k votes in the largest counties through early voting, something is seriously off. Wouldn't that be significantly underperforming Clinton/Trump?

Very much so.  Clinton won the top 15 by approx 500k votes.  Smaller electorate this year but 350-400k would be a comparable percentage.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3918

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Most recent poll has Cruz up 9. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18h31Oi90C0teXatPo1CQgpuKnee-MscF/view

52% of the respondents are over 50 btw, but 538 gives this poll a lot of weight since it's right before election day. Likely many respondents already voted. 

Going to be a massive upset if Cruz loses. 

(please don't shoot the messenger)

Trafalgar Group is very heavy leaning right.  They're probably getting deference by 538 because they called 2016 Presidential election the day of getting Electoral votes on the nose.  

Since then, they've struggled.  They had Roy Moore as a 5-7% favorite going into election for example.  They have Kemp up 12% as well.

 

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The Dog

The Dog 44071

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Trafalgar Group is very heavy leaning right.  They're probably getting deference by 538 because they called 2016 Presidential election the day of getting Electoral votes on the nose.  

Since then, they've struggled.  They had Roy Moore as a 5-7% favorite going into election for example.  They have Kemp up 12% as well.

 

Yeah was wondering about that. RCP has the (R) next to them then I saw 538 give it a high score (due to recency). It's pretty clear their model/sampling is assuming a very high 50+ turnout. 

We'll know more tonight of course as they will  count the votes for the only poll that matters.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, NBMisha said:

Last night Chris Hayes was guessing 8 MM to vote in Texas.  Borrowing from Raydog, a 6.5 MM vote gives Cruz a 500M victory.  8 MM gives Beto a slim win.  My memory and math are not what they used to be.

That number looks like a straight line extrapolation of the EV turnout at 86% of what we saw in the 2016 presidential year.  86% of 8.97 million plus 4% increase in registration = 8.02 million.  With numbers that high, there almost has to be some cannibalization of the election day vote.  I don't have any specific data to support that happening in Texas but surveys from other states have shown large numbers of people EVing that previously voted on election day.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17627

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Beto had better win. I just quit my job since we're all going to be socialists now and that means I don't have to work but they still gotta pay me. Hopefully they will assign me a nice house and wife. 

Close. You'll be assigned a shitty house and a nice husband. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Beto had better win. I just quit my job since we're all going to be socialists now and that means I don't have to work but they still gotta pay me. Hopefully they will assign me a nice house and wife. 

Your wife let me know she was assigned to me last night.  I'll admit it was only from the 11:30 to 11:32 time slot.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted

A story for the Beto supporters, and I'm one as well.

A few years back I went to Pittsburgh for a Texan game on MNF.   I stayed downtown and hit the bars/restaurants all weekend.  Everywhere I went, I ran into other Texan fans that flew up for the game as well.  I couldn't hit a tourist spot without seeing a handful or in some cases dozens of Texans fans.   We were everywhere.

What do you think happened when I went to the game on Monday night?  I was out-numbered at least 150 to 1 by Steeler fans.    I wasn't surprised, but you can easily start to think your echo chamber is the norm until hit in the face with reality.  

In Pittsburgh over that weekend, Texan fans looked to be there in huge numbers because we were all wearing Houston gear wherever we went.  Pittsburgh fans were wearing their regular, everyday clothes until Monday night when they all put on jerseys.  The Texas GOP voters are putting their jerseys today so don't be surprised when Beto loses by 5+.

For many Texan voters, it's identity politics.  They're Republicans and do not look at issues.

 

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8719

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

A story for the Beto supporters, and I'm one as well.

A few years back I went to Pittsburgh for a Texan game on MNF.   I stayed downtown and hit the bars/restaurants all weekend.  Everywhere I went, I ran into other Texan fans that flew up for the game as well.  I couldn't hit a tourist spot without seeing a handful or in some cases dozens of Texans fans.   We were everywhere.

What do you think happened when I went to the game on Monday night?  I was out-numbered at least 150 to 1 by Steeler fans.    I wasn't surprised, but you can easily start to think your echo chamber is the norm until hit in the face with reality.  

In Pittsburgh over that weekend, Texan fans looked to be there in huge numbers because we were all wearing Houston gear wherever we went.  Pittsburgh fans were wearing their regular, everyday clothes until Monday night when they all put on jerseys.  The Texas GOP voters are putting their jerseys today so don't be surprised when Beto loses by 5+.

For many Texan voters, it's identity politics.  They're Republicans and do not look at issues.

 

This is a bad take and you should feel bad too

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Captainant

Captainant 27689

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

While your point is valid, I'm going to have to call shenanigans if Cruz votes outnumber O'Rourke votes 150-to-1.

I'm actually very interested to see what the final vote tally is and what fuck-fuck games will be played because of our shitty voting machines. I can easily see a group suing the TX sec of state for failing to fix the voting infrastructure if Beto loses by a close margin

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Posed as a question but a very sympathetic Politico is basically writing O'Rourke's postmortem.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/04/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-senate-2018-election-222188

Republicans totally swear they would've voted for a Democrat if the Democrat was a Republican.

“Despite all of Cruz’s problems—and there are plenty—here’s a guy who’s running around talking about Medicare for all, and impeaching Trump, and abolishing ICE. And it’s killing him,” Karl Rove, the former senior adviser to George W. Bush, told me in Austin this summer. “Even for people who dislike Cruz, impeaching Trump strikes many of them as terrible for the country. I’ve got friends and family members who may not vote for Cruz. They don’t like Cruz. But Beto isn’t contesting them. I mean, it’s just weird.”

It's almost like Beto... has... principles or something. IT'S SO WEIRD!

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